Abstract

ABSTRACT The presence of fog in offshore regions poses significant hazards to navigation and aviation, making fog nowcasting indispensable for various industries, including oil and gas. This study presented a novel approach utilizing Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) within a deep learning framework to address this need. Leveraging geostationary GOES-16 satellite data from the summers of 2018 and 2019, fog maps were generated as input. The model incorporated Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) layers and was trained with a unique loss function combining Minimum Squared Error (MSE) and structural DISSIMilarity (DSSIM) metrics. Validation results demonstrated an approximate 60% accuracy for both two-hour and three-hour nowcasting. Furthermore, evaluation against in-situ data from an offshore platform revealed a Probability of Detection (PoD) of 0.75 and False Alarm Rate (FAR) of 0.14 for two-hour nowcasting, PoD of 0.75 and FAR of 0.20 for three-hour nowcasting, and PoD of 0.70 and FAR of 0.20 for six-hour nowcasting. These findings suggested the operational viability of the proposed method for short-term fog forecasting in offshore environments.

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