Shifts In Atmospheric Circulation Research Articles

Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation to climate change (dynamic changes), while thermodynamic changes are less uncertain among climate models. Uncertainties arise mainly because the models simulate different shifts in atmospheric circulation over West Africa in a warmer climate. We linked the changes in atmospheric circulation to the changes in Sea Surface Temperature, emphasising that the Northern hemispheric temperature gradient is primary to explain uncertainties in Sahel precipitation change. Sources of Sahel precipitation uncertainties are shown to be the same in the new generation of climate models (CMIP6) as in the previous generation of models (CMIP5).

Global ocean heat content in the Last Interglacial

The Last Interglacial (129–116 thousand years ago (ka)) represents one of the warmest climate intervals of the past 800,000 years and the most recent time when sea level was metres higher than today. However, the timing and magnitude of the peak warmth varies between reconstructions, and the relative importance of individual sources that contribute to the elevated sea level (mass gain versus seawater expansion) during the Last Interglacial remains uncertain. Here we present the first mean ocean temperature record for this interval from noble gas measurements in ice cores and constrain the thermal expansion contribution to sea level. Mean ocean temperature reached its maximum value of 1.1 ± 0.3 °C warmer-than-modern values at the end of the penultimate deglaciation at 129 ka, which resulted in 0.7 ± 0.3 m of thermosteric sea-level rise relative to present level. However, this maximum in ocean heat content was a transient feature; mean ocean temperature decreased in the first several thousand years of the interglacial and achieved a stable, comparable-to-modern value by ~127 ka. The synchroneity of the peak in mean ocean temperature with proxy records of abrupt transitions in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation suggests that the mean ocean temperature maximum is related to the accumulation of heat in the ocean interior during the preceding period of reduced overturning circulation. Rapid oceanic and atmospheric circulation shifts led to a transient peak in the mean temperature of the ocean at the start of the Last Interglacial, according to noble gas isotope records from an Antarctic ice core.

The Mechanisms that Determine the Response of the Northern Hemisphere’s Stationary Waves to North American Ice Sheets

Abstract Stationary waves describe the persistent meanders in the west–east flow of the extratropical atmosphere. Here, changes in stationary waves caused by ice sheets over North America are examined and the underlying mechanisms are discussed. Three experiment sets are presented showing the stationary wave response to the albedo or topography of ice sheets, as well as the albedo and topography in combination, as the forcings evolve from 21 to 6 ka. It is found that although the wintertime stationary waves have the largest amplitude, changes due to an ice sheet are equally large in summer and winter. In summer, ice sheet albedo is the dominant cause of changes: topography alone gives an opposite response to realistic ice sheets including albedo and topography. In winter, over the Atlantic, stationary wave changes are due to the ice sheet topography; over the Pacific, they are due to the persistence of summertime changes, mediated by changes in the ocean circulation. It is found that the response of stationary waves over the last deglaciation echoes the above conclusions, with no evidence of abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation. The response linearly weakens as the albedo and height decrease from 21 to 10 ka. As potential applications, the seasonal cycle over Greenland is shown to be sensitive primarily to changes in summer climate caused by the stationary waves; the annual mean circulation over the North Pacific is found to result from summertime, albedo-forced, stationary wave effects persisting throughout the year because of ocean dynamics.

The contribution of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for wind power over Europe

Wind power accounts for a large portion of the European energy mix (17% of total power capacity). European power systems therefore have a significant-and growing-exposure to near-surface wind speed changes. Despite this, future changes in European wind climate remain relatively poorly studied (compared to, e.g., temperature or precipitation), and there is limited understanding of the differences shown by different general and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs). This study provides a step towards a process-based understanding of European wind speed changes by isolating the component associated with ‘large-scale’ atmospheric circulation changes in the CMIP5 simulations. The component associated with the large-scale atmospheric circulation is found to explain cold season windiness projections in the free troposphere over Western Europe, with the changes reflecting the poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet. However, in most GCMs the projected wind speed changes near the surface are more negative than would be expected from the large-scale circulation alone. Thus, while the spread in CMIP5 21st century near surface wind speed projections is associated with divergent projections for the large-scale atmospheric circulation, there is a remarkably good agreement concerning a relative reduction in near-surface wind speeds. This analysis suggests that projected 21st century wind speed changes over Western Europe are the result of two distinct processes. The first is associated with changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, while the second is likely to be more local in its connection to the near-surface boundary layer. An improved process-based understanding of both is needed for enhancing confidence in wind-power projections on multi-decadal timescales.

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean–sea ice model, MITgcm–ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October–March and summer as April–September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

The role of SST variability in the simulation of the MJO

The sensitivity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to high-frequency variability (period 1–5 days) of sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated using numerical experiments with the super-parameterized Community Climate System Model. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of air–sea interactions in the simulation of the MJO, and stress the necessity of an accurate representation of ocean variability on short time scales. Eliminating 1–5-day variability of surface boundary forcing reduces the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the tropics during the boreal winter. The ISV spectrum becomes close to the red noise background spectrum. The variability of atmospheric circulation shifts to longer time scales. In the absence of high-frequency variability of SST the MJO power gets confined to wavenumbers 1–2 and the magnitude of westward power associated with Rossby waves increases. The MJO convective activity propagating eastward from the Indian Ocean does not cross the Maritime Continent, and convection in the western Pacific Ocean is locally generated. In the Indian Ocean convection tends to follow the meridional propagation of SST anomalies. The response of the MJO to 1–5-day variability in the SST is through the charging and discharging mechanisms contributing to the atmospheric column moist static energy before and after peak MJO convection. Horizontal advection and surface fluxes show the largest sensitivity to SST perturbations.

Late Quaternary coastal evolution and aeolian sedimentation in the tectonically-active southern Atacama Desert, Chile

Analyses of aeolianites and associated dune, surficial carbonate and marine terrace sediments from north-central Chile (27° 54′ S) yield a record of environmental change for the coastal southern Atacama Desert spanning at least the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Optically stimulated luminescence dating indicates phases of aeolian dune construction at around 130, 111–98, 77–69 and 41–28ka. Thin-section and stable carbon and oxygen isotope analyses suggest a predominantly marine sediment source for the three oldest dune phases. Aeolianites appear to have accumulated mainly from tectonically-uplifted interglacial marine sediments that were deflated during windier and/or stormier intervals. Bedding orientations indicate that sand-transporting winds varied in direction from S-ESE during MIS 5e and WNW-ESE during MIS 5c-5a. Winds from the southeast quadrant are unusual today in this region of the Atacama, suggesting either major shifts in atmospheric circulation or topographic airflow modification. Thin-section evidence indicates that the aeolianites were cemented by two phases of vadose carbonate, tentatively linked to wetter periods around 70 and 45ka. Tectonic uplift in the area has proceeded at an average rate of 305–542mmkyr−1. The study illustrates the complexity of understanding onshore-offshore sediment fluxes in the context of Late Quaternary sea-level fluctuations for an area undergoing rapid tectonic uplift.

An aeolian sediment reconstruction of regional wind intensity and links to larger scale climate variability since the last deglaciation from the east coast of southern Africa

Few long-term environmental records are available for southern Africa where shifts in atmospheric circulation and changes in sea surface temperatures interact to influence regional climate dynamics. We present downcore grain size and inorganic geochemistry data covering the last ~23,000years from a peatland on the east coast of South Africa and examine links between shifts in regional wind activity and palaeoclimatic variability. Our record documents substantial variations in aeolian flux associated with changes in regional climate and wind patterns that reflect larger scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Substantially higher fluxes observed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are linked to widespread aridification and an expansion in local source areas brought about by a clear shift to dry and cool conditions. Variations in grain size distribution reveal that the aeolian record from Mfabeni comprises two dominant end-members; locally-derived coarse-grained material and a more fine-grained dust component. Marked changes in composition and modal grain size suggest that hydrological shifts in the region during the LGM were accompanied by an increase in storm frequency and wind strength that we link to a northward displacement in the westerly wind belt and a strengthening in wind intensity. Coupling between a rapid increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and an approximate three-fold decrease in aeolian activity after 15kcalyrBP suggests that changes in SST and its effect on the position and intensity of the westerlies in the Southern Ocean was the dominant climatic driver in the region during deglaciation. Substantially lower aeolian activities through the early Holocene indicate a warming in regional climate and the establishment of more humid conditions under the influence of enhanced tropical easterly flow. Our record also documents more subtle changes in climate over the mid to late Holocene and provides support for an arid phase in southern African climate 6–4kcalyrBP, as well as an increase in climate variability associated with a strengthening in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity ~2kcalyrBP. The study contributes to current knowledge of atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere and provides new insight into links between aeolian activity, regional wind patterns and climatic variability over glacial-interglacial timescales for a region where existing palaeoclimate records are scarce.

Hydrological and vegetation shifts in the Wallacean region of central Indonesia since the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract Precipitation is the most important variable of Indonesian climate, yet there are substantial uncertainties about past and future hydroclimate dynamics over the region. This study explores vegetation and rainfall and associated changes in atmospheric circulation during the past 26,000 years in Wallacea, a biogeographical area in central Indonesia, wedged between the Sunda and Sahul shelves and known for its exceptionally high rainforest biodiversity. We use terrestrial plant biomarkers from sediment cores retrieved from Mandar Bay, off west Sulawesi, to reconstruct changes in Wallacean vegetation and climate since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Enriched leaf wax carbon isotope (δ13Cwax) values recorded in Mandar Bay during the LGM, together with other regional vegetation records, document grassland expansion, implying a regionally dry, and possibly more seasonal, glacial climate. Depleted leaf wax deuterium isotope (δDwax) values in Mandar Bay during the LGM, and low reconstructed precipitation isotope compositions from nearby sites, reveal an intensified Austral-Asian summer monsoon circulation and a southward shift of the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, likely due to strong southern hemisphere summer insolation and the presence of large northern hemisphere ice sheets. Mandar Bay δ13Cwax was anti-correlated with δDwax during the LGM and the last deglaciation, but was positively correlated during most of the Holocene, indicating time-varying controls on the isotopic composition of rainfall in this region. The inundation event of the Sunda Shelf and in particular the opening of the Java Sea and Karimata Strait between 9.4 and 11.1 thousand years ago might have provided new moisture sources for regional convection and/or influenced moisture source trajectories, providing the trigger for shifts in atmospheric circulation and the controls on precipitation isotope compositions from the LGM to the Holocene.

Influence of sea ice on ocean water vapor isotopes and Greenland ice core records

AbstractA warming climate results in sea ice loss and impacts to the Arctic water cycle. The water isotope parameter deuterium excess, a moisture source proxy, can serve as a tracer to help understand hydrological changes due to sea ice loss. However, unlocking the sea ice change signal of isotopes from ice cores requires understanding how sea ice changes impact deuterium excess, which is unknown. Here we present the first isotope data linking a gradient of sea ice extents to oceanic water vapor deuterium excess values. Initial loss of sea ice extent leads to lower deuterium excess moisture sources, and then values progressively increase with further ice loss. Our new process‐based interpretation suggests that past rapid (1–3 years) Greenland ice core changes in deuterium excess during warming might not be the result of abrupt atmospheric circulation shifts, but rather gradual loss of sea ice extent at northern latitude moisture sources.

Progressive Midlatitude Afforestation: Impacts on Clouds, Global Energy Transport, and Precipitation

Abstract Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and nonlinear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover in the northern midlatitudes is systematically evaluated. This study shows that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern midlatitudes determines the local climate response in a nonlinear fashion, and the authors identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks—a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. This study shows how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased. The results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate effects of large-scale vegetation change and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and resulting climate impacts.

Future aerosol reductions and widening of the northern tropical belt

AbstractObservations show that the tropical belt has widened over the past few decades, a phenomenon associated with poleward migration of subtropical dry zones and large‐scale atmospheric circulation. Although part of this signal is related to natural climate variability, studies have identified an externally forced contribution primarily associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone loss. Here we show that the increase in aerosols over the twentieth century has led to contraction of the northern tropical belt, thereby offsetting part of the widening associated with the increase in GHGs. Over the 21st century, however, when aerosol emissions are projected to decrease, the effects of aerosols and GHGs reinforce one another, both contributing to widening of the northern tropical belt. Models that have larger aerosol forcing, by including aerosol indirect effects on cloud albedo and lifetime, yield significantly larger Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropical widening than models with direct aerosol effects only. More targeted simulations show that future reductions in aerosols can drive NH tropical widening as large as greenhouse gases, and idealized simulations show the importance of NH midlatitude aerosol forcing. Mechanistically, the 21st century reduction in aerosols peaks near 40°N, which results in a corresponding maximum increase in surface solar radiation, NH midlatitude tropospheric warming amplification, and a poleward shift in the latitude of maximum baroclinicity, implying a corresponding shift in atmospheric circulation. If models with aerosol indirect effects better represent the real world, then future aerosol changes are likely to be an important—if not dominant—driver of NH tropical belt widening.

Climate science: The dynamics of temperature extremes.

Changes in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns are not well understood. A study finds that these have been a big factor in observed changes in regional temperature extremes during recent decades. See Letter p.465 Changes in atmospheric circulation — the position of the jet stream or intertropical convergence zone for example — may be linked to changes in the occurrence of temperature extremes, but quantitative evidence is scarce. Daniel Horton and colleagues identify statistically significant trends in mid-atmospheric circulation patterns over Eurasia and North America, with the trends partially explaining observed changes in extreme temperature. At present, it is unclear whether these trends are related to greenhouse gas emissions or natural variability, and better-understood thermodynamic changes control more of the overall trends in extremes. But in some regions and for some types of extreme temperature events, shifts in atmospheric circulation are an important actor.

Southern Tibetan Plateau ice core δ18O reflects abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation in the late 1970s

Ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau provide high-resolution records of changes in the snow and ice isotopic composition. In the monsoon sector of southern Tibetan Plateau, their climatic interpretation has been controversial. Here, we present a new high-resolution δ18O record obtained from 2206 measurements performed at 2–3 cm depth resolution along a 55.1 m depth ice core retrieved from the Noijinkansang glacier (NK, 5950 m a.s.l.) that spans the period from 1864 to 2006 AD. The data are characterized by high δ18O values in the nineteenth century, 1910s and 1960s, followed by a drop in the late 1970s and a recent increasing trend. The comparison with regional meteorological data and with a simulation performed with the LMDZiso general circulation model leads to the attribution of the abrupt shift in the late 1970s predominantly to changes in regional atmospheric circulation, together with the impact of atmospheric temperature change. Correlation analyses suggest that the large-scale modes of variability (PDO and ENSO, i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation) play important roles in modulating NK δ18O changes. The NK δ18O minimum at the end of the 1970s coincides with a PDO phase shift, an inflexion point of the zonal index (representing the overall intensity of the surface westerly anomalies over middle latitudes) as well as ENSO, implying interdecadal modulation of the influence of the PDO/ENSO on the Indian monsoon on southern TP precipitation δ18O. While convective activity above North India controls the intra-seasonal variability of precipitation δ18O in southern TP, other processes associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation act at the inter-annual scale.

Late Holocene environmental change in arctic western Siberia

The Putorana Plateau, western Siberia, situated on the boundary of the Atlantic and continental Siberian climate provinces, is sensitive to shifts in atmospheric circulation. Three lakes on an altitudinal transect were studied using chironomid subfossils to provide the first estimates of late Holocene climate in this remote, poorly studied region of Arctic Russia. The analysis of sediment cores from three closely located lakes is rare in palaeoenvironmental studies and enables the role of other environmental variables, which may be a potential source of error in palaeoclimatic reconstructions, to be assessed. The chironomid-based reconstructions suggest a more maritime climate c. 3400 cal. BP with July temperatures c. 1.5°C warmer than present which cooled rapidly by c. 2°C, with a more continental climate between 3200 and 2600 cal. BP. These trends are similar in timing and scale to other northern hemisphere records. The recent chironomid records from all three lakes show pronounced faunal changes over the last 50 years probably directly or indirectly because of climate-driven changes in catchment hydrology. This is particularly evident in the recent record from an open lake within a large wetland habitat, which appears relatively insensitive to changes in July air temperatures.

Miocene shift of European atmospheric circulation from trade wind to westerlies.

The modern European climatic regime is peculiar, due to its unitary winter but diverse summer climates and a pronounced Mediterranean climate in the south. However, little is known on its evolution in the deep time. Here we reconstruct the European summer climate conditions in the Tortonian (11.62–7.246 Ma) using plant fossil assemblages from 75 well-dated sites across Europe. Our results clearly show that the Tortonian Europe mainly had humid to subhumid summers and no arid climate has been conclusively detected, indicating that the summer-dry Mediterranean-type climate has not yet been established along most of the Mediterranean coast at least by the Tortonian. More importantly, the reconstructed distribution pattern of summer precipitation reveals that the Tortonian European must have largely been controlled by westerlies, resulting in higher precipitation in the west and the lower in the east. The Tortonian westerly wind field appears to differ principally from the trade wind pattern of the preceding Serravallian (13.82–11.62 Ma), recently deduced from herpetofaunal fossils. Such a shift in atmospheric circulation, if ever occurred, might result from the development of ice caps and glaciers in the polar region during the Late Miocene global cooling, the then reorganization of oceanic circulation, and/or the Himalayan-Tibetan uplift.

Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width

The tropical belt has expanded by several degrees latitude over the past 30 years, following an earlier period of contraction. Climate simulations indicate that tropical belt width is controlled by multidecadal sea surface temperature variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and anthropogenic aerosols. The tropical belt has widened by several degrees latitude since 1979, as evidenced by shifts in atmospheric circulation and climate zones1,2,3,4,5. Global climate models also simulate tropical belt widening, but less so than observed6,7. Reasons for this discrepancy and the mechanisms driving the expansion are uncertain. Here we analyse multidecadal variability in tropical belt width since 1950 using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model runs and find that simulated rates of tropical expansion over the past 30 years—particularly in the Northern Hemisphere—are in better agreement with observations than previous models. We find that models driven by observed sea surface temperatures over this interval yield the largest rate of tropical expansion. We link the tropical expansion in the Northern Hemisphere to the leading pattern of sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We also find, both from models and observations, that the tropical belt contracted in the Northern Hemisphere from 1950 to 1979, coincident with the reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation trend. In both time periods, anthropogenic aerosols act to modify the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and therefore contribute to the width of the tropical belt. We conclude that tropical expansion and contraction are influenced by multidecadal sea surface temperature variability associated with both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and anthropogenic aerosols.

Blown with the wind

Wind systems determine the transport pathways of air pollutants such as ozone. Simulations with a chemistry-climate model suggest that decadal shifts in atmospheric circulation have helped shape season-specific trends in surface ozone levels in Hawaii since the 1990s.

Tropospheric ozone trends at Mauna Loa Observatory tied to decadal climate variability

Tropospheric ozone is a potent greenhouse gas, biological irritant and significant source of highly reactive hydroxyl radicals. Simulations with a chemistry climate model suggest that shifts in atmospheric circulation can account for the seasonally dependent trends in tropospheric ozone levels observed at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over the past three decades.

A deglacial and Holocene record of climate variability in south-central Alaska from stable oxygen isotopes and plant macrofossils in peat

We used stable oxygen isotopes derived from bulk peat (δ18OTOM), in conjunction with plant macrofossils and previously published carbon accumulation records, in a ∼14,500 cal yr BP peat core (HT Fen) from the Kenai lowlands in south-central Alaska to reconstruct the climate history of the area. We find that patterns are broadly consistent with those from lacustrine records across the region, and agree with the interpretation that major shifts in δ18OTOM values indicate changes in strength and position of the Aleutian Low (AL), a semi-permanent low-pressure cell that delivers winter moisture to the region. We find decreased strength or a more westerly position of the AL (relatively higher δ18OTOM values) during the Bølling-Allerød, Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), and late Holocene, which also correspond to warmer climate regimes. These intervals coincide with greater peat preservation and enhanced carbon (C) accumulation rates at the HT Fen and with peatland expansion across Alaska. The HTM in particular may have experienced greater summer precipitation as a result of an enhanced Pacific subtropical high, a pattern consistent with modern δ18O values for summer precipitation. The combined warm summer temperatures and greater summer precipitation helped promote the observed rapid peat accumulation. A strengthened AL (relatively lower δ18OTOM values) is most evident during the Younger Dryas, Neoglaciation, and the Little Ice Age, consistent with lower peat preservation and C accumulation at the HT Fen, suggesting less precipitation reaches the leeward side of the Kenai Mountains during periods of enhanced AL strength. The peatlands on the Kenai Peninsula thrive when the AL is weak and the contribution of summer precipitation is higher, highlighting the importance of precipitation seasonality in promoting peat accumulation. This study demonstrates that δ18OTOM values in peat can be applied toward understand large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation over millennial timescales.