Abstract
Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean–sea ice model, MITgcm–ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October–March and summer as April–September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.
Highlights
Fram Strait sea ice export from the central Arctic Ocean into the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Sea comprises the largest portion of the total Arctic sea ice export (Serreze et al 2006)
There is no significant difference in winter cyclone count and duration between the two periods
A high-resolution global ocean and sea-ice model Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm)–ECCO2 has been used to explore the impacts of local cyclone activity on Fram Strait sea ice export by both case study and statistical analyses
Summary
Fram Strait sea ice export from the central Arctic Ocean into the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Sea comprises the largest portion of the total Arctic sea ice export (Serreze et al 2006). Atmospheric forcing processes, especially cyclone activity, could largely determine the variability and changes of Fram Strait sea ice export. The impact of cyclone activity within this area on sea ice have been investigated previously by observations (Brümmer et al 2001, 2003, 2008), atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., Rogers et al 2005) or model simulations (e.g., Dierer et al 2005; Zhang et al 2013). We use a global high-resolution coupled ocean–sea ice model, a high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis dataset and a reliable cyclone algorithm to synthetically investigate the characteristics of cyclones near Fram Strait and their relationship with Arctic sea ice export through the strait in the context of shifting atmospheric circulation.
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