Shift In Foreign Policy Research Articles

Xi Jinping’s Centralisation of Chinese Foreign Policy Decision-Making Power

In the past three years, a trend towards the centralisation of decision-making power in Chinese foreign policy instituted by Xi Jinping has become more and more apparent. The driver of the shift in Chinese foreign policy is the reform of its decision-making system. The ‘reform’ not only refers to institution building but also includes change of the former procedures of foreign policy decisionmaking to create a more efficient decision-making system.

Balancing and bandwagoning: explaining shifts in Sri Lankan foreign policy

ABSTRACTAnalysis of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy over three decades (1977–2015) reveals a pattern of shifts from balancing to bandwagoning, and then back again to balancing. The more salient foreign policy issues during each administration fall broadly within the economic or security spheres. What are the key drivers of small state foreign policy – do systemic factors preside in general, and domestic factors prove inconsequential? Or are domestic factors able to play a decisive role under certain circumstances, within broader structural parameters? Three primary arguments are made in this regard. First, an interplay of system- and domestic-level factors best explains this pattern of foreign policy change. Second, in the domain of foreign economic policymaking, domestic imperatives and actors appear to play a decisive role, although within the broader structural preconditions. Third, systemic factors maintain predominance over domestic-level factors in shaping foreign security policy.

Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire by Agnia Grigas

Reviewed by: Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire by Agnia Grigas Kirstyn Leigh Hevey (bio) Agnia Grigas. Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire. xi + 352 pp. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2016. ISBN 9780300214505. In Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire, Agnia Grigas systematically explores and evaluates Russian foreign policy towards its “compatriots”: ethnic Russians residing abroad, Russian-language speakers, and descendants of the Soviet Union. Grigas proposes a theory of Russian re-imperialism, rooted in a trajectory of historical continuity between Putin and his tsarist and Soviet predecessors, to explain the apparently revanchist and resurgent Russia. Grigas enhances our understanding of Moscow’s policies, particularly those directed at Russian “compatriots,” while also contributing to wider theoretical debates about Russian reimperialization, soft power, and politics of citizenship. In an increasingly populated body of literature, the author complements those who consider the driving factors behind Russian attempts to maintain and regain influence and territory in the former Soviet Republics since the early 2000s. In the first three chapters of Beyond Crimea, Grigas sets the framework of her historical-structural approach and establishes the crucial role of the “compatriots” to the seven-stage Russian reimperialization trajectory. Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7 include case studies of each of the former Soviet Republics, tracing the reimperialization policy trajectory—a massive undertaking for 256 pages of text. Grigas argues that Moscow has successfully begun its process of reimperialization in the Baltic States, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, and to a lesser extent, in Armenia and Belarus, with little avail in Central Asia. However, in all cases the impact of Russian soft power is discernible. In conclusion, Grigas proposes a series of countermeasures for target states to be taken at each stage of the reimperialization trajectory. By adopting a historical-structural approach, Grigas effectively calls our attention to compatriot policies, an underresearched area of Russian politics, and asserts that the annexation of Crimea was part of a broader policy-course. Grigas argues that “Moscow has pursued an increasingly consistent seven-stage reimperialization policy trajectory toward its compatriots” (26). The Russian government, especially under Vladimir Putin, uses ethnic Russians and Russian speakers to extend its influence and expand its borders. In doing so, Grigas argues, the Russian government is guided by larger structural and historical predilections—the Russian self-perception of empire, the culture of a strong leader, and energy and security politics—which are paramount in the quest for Russian reimperialization. Although Grigas notes a shift in Russian foreign policy beginning in the early 2000s, Moscow has increasingly paid attention to its compatriots in the former Soviet republics. For the author, the seven stages through which the Russian reimperialization project unfolds begin with (1) soft power (cultural, economic, and linguistic-based [End Page 311] modes of influence), which leads to (2) humanitarian policies of support and aid, (3) compatriot policies and formalized outreach, (4) information warfare urging immediate compatriot protection, (5) passportization, (6) compatriot protections, and ends with (7) annexation. The author notes that the steps may occur simultaneously, in a different order, or may even be skipped, although such causal complexity is not evidenced in the case studies. Instead, the cases fall along the continuum to varying extents. The seven-stage policy trajectory is an explanatory tool, and when applied to the former Soviet Republics, Grigas demonstrates commonalities of disparate events—the Russian annexation of Crimea, Russian cyber-attacks on Estonia, and Russian peacekeeping missions in Tajikistan—with the very same underlying Russian policy strategy. Grigas groups the former Soviet republics’ case studies according to where the states fall along the trajectory. To date, the Central Asian states have largely experienced modes of influence via Russian soft power, whereas the policy trajectory has reached the point of passportization in the Baltic States. Further along the continuum, violent conflict has occurred in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Transnistria. The final stage of the reimperialization process has only been reached in 2014, the territorial annexation of Crimea. In each case-study chapter, Grigas outlines the former Soviet republics’ relations with Russia, with the Russian compatriots, Russian interests and motives in the given state, and then evaluates the target state’s place on the reimperialization trajectory. In providing the...

Is Japan Really Back? The “Abe Doctrine” and Global Governance

ABSTRACTJapanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has emerged as the “comeback kid” of Japanese politics and in his second term of office is now widely regarded as a rare example of strong leadership as he seeks to arrest and reverse his country’s perceived decline. The strategy to achieve these objectives has come to be known as the “Abe Doctrine,” which represents a radical but risky shift in foreign policy. This article outlines the tenets of the evolving Abe Doctrine and then applies them to the Abe administration’s behaviour in the mechanisms of global governance, a highly pertinent but overlooked example. It argues that although a more strategic and coherent approach to global governance has emerged under Abe than had been previously evident, this has been at the expense of the norm of internationalism that has traditionally shaped Japan’s role.

A Política Externa interina e os riscos à integração regional

Este artigo oferece uma reconstrução histórica dos três primeiros meses da gestão de José Serra à frente do Ministério das Relações Exteriores, período de interinidade do governo de Michel Temer, valendo-se das declarações públicas do ministro e do Itamaraty, bem como de análises dos grandes meios de imprensa. Sustenta-se que guinada observada na política externa brasileira apresenta duas características: (1) a forte carga retórica, direcionada à desconstrução do “legado diplomático” petista e à confrontação com críticos regionais ao impeachment; (2) uma mudança estrutural, tanto no desenho institucional do MRE quanto no eixo de orientação da inserção brasileira, destinada a assegurar a visibilidade do chanceler no contexto da sucessão presidencial. No médio prazo, a soma desses elementos pode trazer riscos ao processo de integração regional, na medida em que se redefinem as relações intra-Mercosul e opta-se por uma estratégia de embate com países em crise institucional, como a Venezuela.

Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data

United Nations (UN) General Assembly votes have become the standard data source for measures of states preferences over foreign policy. Most papers use dyadic indicators of voting similarity between states. We propose a dynamic ordinal spatial model to estimate state ideal points from 1946 to 2012 on a single dimension that reflects state positions toward the US-led liberal order. We use information about the content of the UN’s agenda to make estimates comparable across time. Compared to existing measures, our estimates better separate signal from noise in identifying foreign policy shifts, have greater face validity, allow for better intertemporal comparisons, are less sensitive to shifts in the UN’ agenda, and are strongly correlated with measures of liberalism. We show that the choice of preference measures affects conclusions about the democratic peace.

“Swinging on a Pendulum”

The article aims to explain Armenia’s foreign policy shift from its pre-signature of the Association Agreement (AA)/Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the European Union (EU) in favor of joining the Customs Union (CU)/Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). It uncovers the factors in different policy spheres by examining data and scores, and draws on public opinion to investigate whether it was in sync with the presidential announcement. While Armenia is “swinging on a pendulum,” the study considers the challenges of being a member of the EEU and the repercussions for the country’s relations with the EU.

South Africa and Japan: maintaining a difficult friendship

Japan's economic and political relationship with South Africa has been characterised historically by ambiguity. Throughout the twentieth century, economic ties were underpinned by mercantilist and strategic considerations. During apartheid, this placed Japan in an uneasy position as it sought to balance a relationship of expediency with wider foreign policy objectives in the rest of Africa and beyond. The demise of apartheid created the space for new forms of engagement centred on the pursuit of cognate goals. This has seen the intensification and deepening of economic ties in particular. Yet relations, especially at the political and diplomatic levels, have also been more complex than anticipated, and in recent years, the rise in Africa of other players from Asia and the Global South has had a bearing on South Africa–Japan ties. In this paper, it is argued that two related dynamics pivoting on policy elites’ changing conceptions (or self-view) of the nature of the state they are running and its place in the wider world order help explain the post-apartheid evolution of the South Africa–Japan relationship. First, there has been an apparent shift in South African foreign policy elites’ self-view, mediated by a changing systemic context. The development and manifestation over time of a stronger Global South self-conception in South African foreign policy, fashioned in juxtaposition to what have been considered in the past key Global North relationships, had direct consequences for South Africa–Japan ties. Second, meso- and micro-level dynamics – the role of the general operations in the diplomatic (i.e. bureaucratic) arena, and the personalities and shifting political preferences of individual executive leaders – had major impacts on how South Africa engaged with Japan in the past two decades.

Muslim, trader, nomad, spy: China's Cold War and the people of the Tibetan borderlands. By Sulmaan Wasif Khan

In Muslim, trader, nomad, spy, Sulmaan Wasif Khan gives an account of how events in Tibet from the 1950s to the early 1960s informed not just important elements of Chinese foreign policy, but also wider relations among Third World states in an era of post-colonial statebuilding. As bottom-up history, it is a delightful corrective to reductionist accounts of international relations which focus on state capitals—there are not many analyses of diplomatic history which start from the subnational level. It also sheds light on developments in Tibet during a crucial period for the region. Khan argues that in the 1950s, ‘the Chinese state was weak in the Tibetan borderlands; that addressing that weakness caused the PRC to change from empire-lite to a harder imperial formation; and that the transition brought about a shift in Chinese foreign policy during the Cold War’ (pp. 4–5). The shifts in Chinese foreign policy have had long-lasting consequences. Khan shows how the ‘five principles of peaceful coexistence’ of 1954 (namely mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty; mutual non-aggression; non-interference in others' internal affairs; equality and mutual benefit; and peaceful coexistence), which remain a central part of Chinese diplomatic rhetoric, emerged from interactions with India over managing trade in the Tibetan borderlands. Because events in those geo-strategically important borderlands contributed to the breakdown in Sino-Indian relations and the conflict between the two countries in 1962, China's Tibetan frontiers would not just play a role in relations between these two Asian powers, but affect the prospects for Third World solidarity for the rest of the Cold War.

Explaining the diversity of small states’ foreign policies through role theory

This paper challenges the notion that small states adopt similar foreign policies. I argue that variations also exist within cases whereby small states have undergone significant foreign policy shifts. To explain these differences and variations, I develop a theoretical framework around the concept of national role which provides an insight into the social dimension of being a small state. It builds upon constructivist precepts, introduces agency and challenges the consensus assumption in the study of small states. The paper aims to offer the theoretical foundation for future empirical works and take the small state research in novel directions.

G. H. W. Bush and M. Gorbachev’s Negotiations at Malta in 1989 (With Reference to G. H. W. Bush Presidential Library Archive)

The article analyzes the Gorbachev-Bush negotiations at the Malta Summit. The author uses documents from the George H. W. Bush Presidential Library and memoirs of the participants to research the then changing Soviet-American relations. According to the memoirs of its participants and contemporary journalists’ articles, the Malta Summit became a milestone in the process of the Cold War’s ending. Such negotiations were only possible only in relatively peaceful conditions. However, the analysis of the Malta Summit is not in the limelight of historical science; the works published are mainly based on memoirs. It was crucial for the George H. W. Bush Administration to determine the changes in the Soviet policy. The summit was an attempt to verify the genuineness of Gorbachev’s foreign policy shift, which made the preparation for it very rigorous. There was no agenda at the Summit, but G. H. W. Bush made specific proposals both in arms control and in regional issues. M. Gorbachev used peaceful rhetoric and appealed to the new status of the USSR –US relations. Despite the fact that there was a cooperative spirit at the Summit some issues remained unresolved. There were no formal agreements at the Summit; thus, its importance lies in the psychological sphere. The G. H. W. Bush Administration made sure that the changes in the Soviet foreign policy were real, and they could get more concessions, including the German reunification.

Rational deterrence by proxy: designing cooperative security agreements

President Obama’s call for change in the conduct of US foreign policy shifts emphasis from direct interventions to cooperative partnerships. With a billion pledge as support for their development, the issue of effectiveness and design is brought to the fore. If terror organizations cannot be eradicated, can a donor state successfully delegate the deterrence or at least the containment of a violent non-state actor to the host country from which it operates? We identify, assess for impact, and value rational delegated deterrence arrangements, in which the US subsidizes a host, and the host, with agreed upon vigor, inhibits the activity of the violent non-state actor operating within its borders. We account for the US’ imperfect monitoring of host and non-state actor activity and identify agreements that can successfully deter the targeted organizations. We also find that mutually agreeable weak cooperation between donor and host can endure despite the survival of the violent non-state actor on host territory.

Rational Deterrence by Proxy: Designing Cooperative Security Agreements

President Obama’s call for change in the conduct of US foreign policy shifts emphasis from direct interventions to cooperative partnerships. With a billion pledge as support for their development, the issue of effectiveness and design is brought to the fore. If terror organizations cannot be eradicated, can a donor state successfully delegate the deterrence or at least the containment of a violent non-state actor to the host country from which it operates? We identify, assess for impact, and value rational delegated deterrence arrangements, in which the US subsidizes a host, and the host, with agreed upon vigor, inhibits the activity of the violent non-state actor operating within its borders. We account for the US’ imperfect monitoring of host and non-state actor activity and identify agreements that can successfully deter the targeted organizations. We also find that mutually agreeable weak cooperation between donor and host can endure despite the survival of the violent non-state actor on host territory.

Examining recent shifts in Australia's foreign aid policy: new paradigm or more incremental change?

ABSTRACTOn taking office in late 2013, the incoming Abbott government proclaimed the advent of a new aid paradigm. This article asks whether or not this is the case. It does so by situating the new coalition policy in the context of more than two decades of development thinking. Focusing on the way Australian aid policy reflects trends in both global development and geopolitical discourses, the article parses out continuity and change. It finds that Australia's new aid paradigm is in fact largely the old aid paradigm reincarnate, with aid policy continuing to follow the well-established parameters outlined over decades of global thinking and practice that emphasise the significance of private-sector-led economic growth. However, while the overarching paradigm remains relatively intact, incremental change is also apparent, including alterations to the geographic focus, level and administration of the program.

The geopolitics of Turkey's ‘humanitarian diplomacy’ in Somalia: a critique

Turkey's involvement in African countries was revived in 1998 with the adoption of the ‘Africa Action Plan’, inaugurating a shift in foreign policy towards strengthened economic and political relat...

China's Foreign Policy Shift in Africa: From Non-Interference to Preponderance

ABSTRACTThe penetration of Beijing into the African continent is radically changing the economic landscape of the region. The non-interference policy states that China does not meddle in the internal affairs of other nations and this is a core part of the five principles of peaceful coexistence; others include mutual respect for a nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, equality based on mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence. Furthermore, there has been no corresponding change in Beijing's foreign policy in terms of ambitions, alliances and interests. The Asian power is following the same foreign policy it has pursued since 1954: a policy of non-interference. The article argues that the non-interference policy has outlived its usefulness; Beijing needs to revisit this policy of non-interference in order to guard its economic investments and political interests, which have grown and come under threat recently. The research concludes that the policy of non-interference can be replaced by ‘preponderance’.

Power and International Relations

Power and International Relations

POLÍTICA AFRICANA DO BRASIL: MUDANÇA ENTRE LULA E DILMA?

A política externa brasileira para a África sofreu uma importante inflexão a partir de 2003. Depois de um longo período de distanciamento, a ascensão ao poder de Luiz Inácio (Lula) da Silva marcou uma reorientação clara da política externa brasileira, e uma retomada da atribuição de importância ao continente africano. Ao longo dos dois mandatos de Lula, o Brasil se reaproximou da África, ampliando sua participação no continente e transformando-o em um importante parceiro do país, não só em termos políticos, mas também econômicos. Em 2011, Dilma Rousseff assumiu a presidência do Brasil, e o ministro das Relações Exteriores, Celso Amorim, foi substituído por Antônio Patriota, levantando muitos questionamentos acerca dos rumos que seriam adotados na condução da política externa do novo governo. Este trabalho busca analisar se houve, ou não, uma mudança na política externa brasileira para a África no governo Dilma Rousseff em relação ao governo Lula da Silva e, em caso positivo, qual a sua profundidade. Para tanto, apoia-se nos trabalhos de Charles Hermann (1990), para analisar os diferentes níveis de mudança de política externa; Ricardo Sennes (2003), para demonstrar que há uma continuidade na matriz de política externa dos governos Lula e Dilma; e de Robert Putnam (2010), para demonstrar que as mudanças ocorridas, em grande medida, são reflexos das transformações ocorridas tanto no cenário internacional quanto no cenário interno do país.

Executive Agreements as a Foreign Policy Tool During the Bush and Obama Administrations

Modern presidents complete 95% of their international agreements as executive agreements, a unilateral tool, rather than as treaties, a power shared with the Senate. Close examination of the use of executive agreements vis-a-vis treaties during the 21st century indicates significant differences in how the Obama Administration completes its international agreements compared to the Bush Administration. Both Bush and Obama completed far fewer treaties than executive agreements; however, Obama has used far fewer treaties than any other modern president, including Bush. Both presidents used executive agreements to complete a broad range of international agreements, from the mundane to the truly significant. I argue that Obama’s singular reliance on executive agreements represents an important change that is largely a result of polarization in the Senate and the attractiveness of unilateral authority. To understand the importance of this shift in foreign policy making, I undertake an extensive analysis of the hundreds of agreements signed from 2005 to 2012. Over 1,900 executive agreements are coded on a variety of variables, including topic, agreement partner, agency, etc. The evidence supports the notion that the presidents during the 21st century, but especially Obama, are violating the norms developed during the 20th century that most significant agreements will be completed as treaties or with some direct input from Congress. The implications of this change are discussed.

Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood: Crossing Roads in Syria

Relations between Turkey and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (SMB) have gained momentum in the light of post-Arab revolt developments. This study aims to present the historical background of the relationship between SMB and AKP and effects of this relationship on foreign policy. For the analytical discussion on the relationship between AKP and SMB integration to particular recent foreign policies of Turkey, first of all, it will be examined how the SMB is perceived in Turkey in social and political arenas. Thus, the socio-political dimensions of the process in which the SMB came to the fore and began to be known in Turkey will be explored along with its position in foreign policy during the Justice and Development Party (JDP) government and the Syrian crisis. This study aims to analyze transformation of the relationship between Turkey and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. In many points Turkey has moved away from traditional Turkish foreign policy in its attitude toward the Arab revolts. In this respect, Turkey began to support civil unrest as distinct from the idea that are the main actors in international relations. It was a significant shift from the dominant principle of maintaining the status quo in traditional Turkish foreign policy. The traditional foreign policy rule non-interference in the internal affairs of states was abandoned by Tukey, with the expectation of the Syrian regime would soon change. With the Syrian crisis and the Arab revolts in particular, Turkey for the first time embraced its position as a model country for the Middle East countries and applied this perception in its foreign policy. The visible signs in this major shift in foreign policy are Turkeys moving away from its secular foreign policy as one of the interested parties of the problem as a result of its systematic and explicit intervention and its policy of supporting refugees with many pre- established camps in the immediate vicinity of the border. In terms of foreign policy, Turkey began for the first time to be known for its relations with a non-governmental opposition party, namely the SMB and SMB-Turkey relations also attracted much attention from the foreign press. For example, in the analysis published by the New York Times in February (Thomas Jr., 2011), it is mentioned that Erdogans party has already established ties with the Muslim Brotherhood — a result of Mr. Erdogans long and successful campaign to present himself as a dominant and increasingly anti-Israeli voice in the Middle East. And according to research by Dore Gold at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, three members of the Muslim Brotherhood — two of whom serve in the Egyptian Parliament — were on the Turkish-sponsored ship that was attacked by Israeli forces on its way to deliver aid to the Gaza Strip in May. There is a great deal of ideological compatibility between the A.K.P. and the Muslim Brotherhood, said Mr.