Shared Mobility Services Research Articles

Mobility Trends during the COVID-19 Virus Pandemic

The Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) has a significant impact on countries around the world and many states have introduced restrictions to transport. This includes keeping essential transport moving, for example to transport medical supplies and other essential goods. Many countries have closed their borders and imposed curfews in sharp reductions in transport demand also on regional and continental level. Public transport but also shared mobility services are vectors for distribution of the virus, on the other hand, they are severely impacted by travel bans and individual concerns in order to avoid public gatherings leading to reduced travel and transport demand. Different countries have dealt with these challenging circumstances in different ways - and, in some cases, the directives vary from city to city. Cities in developing countries and emerging economies face bigger challenges than ever before. At the beginning of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) google maps started to collect detailed statistics on the movement of people using location data from mobile devices. The paper analyzes the data obtained and shows the results for various areas of movement such as shops, recreation areas, parks, public transport and other. A comparison was made of the collected data in the Republic of Croatia, which had a solid measures, Italian Republic which had many affected during the pandemic and Kingdom of Sweden which had very mild measures during a pandemic. Therefore, a study was made on how measures affected the mobility of people in individual countries with different measures.

Standardization of Shared Electric Kickboard Service Process Using Service Blueprint

개인용 이동수단으로만 주로 활용되던 퍼스널 모빌리티 사업에 공유서비스를 결합한 분야인 공유 모빌리티 서비스의 시장은 점차 증가하고 있다. 공유 모빌리티와 관련된 사건 및 사고 역시 증가하며 이에 대한 정책의 개선방안도 제안되고 있다. 서비스의 이용에 대한 문제는 꾸준히 증가하고 있지만, 관련 선행연구 및 논의는 부족한상황이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 공유 모빌리티 중 가장 주목받는 전동킥보드를 주제로 공유서비스에 대한 연구를 진행하였다. 첫째, 공유 전동킥보드 관련 온라인 뉴스기사들에 대하여 크롤링 기법을 활용하여 우리나라의 기존 공유 킥보드 서비스 및 시장이 우선적으로 고려해야 할 사항을 살펴보고, 둘째, 서비스 사용자의 경험적 측면에서 분석하여 공유 전동킥보드 서비스의 새로운 청사진(service blueprint)을 제안하려 한다. 공유 킥보드에 대한 뉴스를 시계열의 형태로 빈도 분석하여 빈도가 높은 단어들을 알아보고, 추출된 상위 키워드를 고려한 공유 전동킥보드의 새로운 서비스 청사진을 제공하고자 한다. 공유 전동킥보드의 서비스 청사진을제안하여 소비자에게 동일한 서비스와 안전한 품질의 서비스를 제공하여 사용자 만족도를 개선하는 것에 목적이있다. 이를 위해, 크롤링 빈도분석 결과를 바탕으로 서비스를 분석하고 기존의 공유 전동 스쿠터 서비스 청사진에 F 포인트(사용자 인증, 탑승, 하차, 반납)를 중심으로 서비스 개선안을 도출하였으며, 이를 활용하여 새로운공유 전동 스쿠터 서비스 청사진을 제안하였다. 본 논문은 공유 전동킥보드의 이용상 문제를 서비스 청사진을 통해 현황 분석하여 서비스 표준화를 제안한다는점에서 의의가 있다. 개선된 서비스 청사진을 통하여 사용자 중심의 서비스 표준화를 시도하고, 이를 통해 성장가능성이 있는 공유 모빌리티 서비스 산업의 생태계 발전에 기여하고자 한다.The market for shared mobility services, which combines personal mobility businesses with shared services, is gradually expanding. As incidents and accidents related to shared mobility services are also on the rise, policy improvement measures are being suggested as well. Despit e the fact that issues regarding the use of such services are steadily on the rise, related prior research and discussion are lacking. Thus a research on sharing services with electric scooters, the most anticipated shared mobility service, as the subject was conducted. First, some factors that the Korean electric scooter services and market must consider will be taken into account by indexing online news articles through crawling. Second, a new service blueprint for shared electric scooter services through analyzing the experiences of service users will be proposed. This paper seeks to provide a new service blueprint for shared electric scooter services through a frequency analysis on news articles about shared electric scooters in the form of a time series. By using these keywords, we provide a blueprint for the new service of shared electric kickboard. The purpose lies in improving user satisfaction by providing consistent service and ensured safety, enabled through a service blueprint for shared electric scooters. analyze existing services based on frequency analysis results from crawling data and drew a service improvement plan centered around an F point(user identification, boarding, dismounting, return), and applied our findings on a new service blueprint for shared electric scooter services. This study holds its significance in that it suggests a standardization of services by means of a situation analysis on issues that arise from using shared electric scooters. The improved service blueprint aims to attempt user-centered service standardization and to contribute to the development of the ecosystem of the shared mobility service industry that holds potential for growth.

Perceived risk of using shared mobility services during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemichas caused our daily routines to change quickly. The pandemic provokes public fear, resulting in changes in what modes of transport people use to perform their daily activities. It is imperative for transportation authorities to properly identify the different degrees of behavioral change among various social groups. A major factor that can substantially explain individuals’ behavioral changes is the personal risk perceptions toward using shared mobility solutions. Thus, this study explores the risk that individuals perceive while using public transit and ridesharing services (as the most widespread forms of shared mobility) during the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we designed and implemented a multidimensional travel-behavior survey in the Chicago metropolitan area that comprises socio-demographic information and retrospective questions related to attitudes and travel behavior before and during the pandemic. Utilizing a bivariate ordered probit modeling approach to better account for the potential correlation between unobserved factors, we simultaneously modeled the perceived risk of exposure to the novel coronavirus in case of riding transit and using ridesharing services. A wide range of factors is found to be influential on the perceived risk of using shared mobility services, including the socio-demographic attributes, built environment settings, and the virus spread. Further, our results indicate that the mitigation strategies to increase the ridership of shared mobility services should be adaptive considering the spatial variations.

Business Model Blueprints for the Shared Mobility Hub Network

Shared (electric) mobility is still facing challenges in terms of reaching its potential as a sustainable mobility solution. Low physical and digital integration with public transport, a lack of charging infrastructure, the regulatory barriers, and the public nuisance are hindering the uptake and organization of shared mobility services. This study examines the case of the shared mobility hub, a location where shared mobility is concentrated, as a solution to overcome these challenges. To find ideas informing how a network of shared mobility hubs can contribute to sustainable urban mobility and to overcome the aforementioned challenges, a business model innovation approach was adopted. Focus groups, consisting of public and private stakeholders, collaboratively designed five business model (BM) blueprints, reaching a consensus about the value creation, delivery, and capture mechanisms of the network. The blueprints, defined as first-/last-mile, clustered, point-of-interest (POI), hybrid, and closed mobility hub networks, provide alternative solutions to integrate sustainable transportation modes into a coherent network, enabling multi- and intermodal travel behaviour, and supporting interoperability, sustainable land use, and ensured access to shared (electric) travel modes. However, which kind of network the local key stakeholders need to commit to depends on the local policy goals and regulatory context.

The Bike-Sharing System in Slovakia and the Impact of COVID-19 on This Shared Mobility Service in a Selected City

The current COVID-19 pandemic situation has a very significant impact on urban mobility, as evidenced by fundamental changes in passengers’ behavior. In many cases, passengers have switched to other modes of transport to minimize the risk of infection (particularly cycling and walking). This paper aims to point out the analysis results of the impacts of a bike-sharing system in the city of Košice before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this paper describes an analysis of the current state of bike-sharing in the Slovak Republic. We have stated a timeline of significant dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 had a significant impact on people’s mobility and bike-sharing, as evidenced by the graphs and results in this paper.

Electric Shared Mobility Services during the Pandemic: Modeling Aspects of Transportation

The global spread of the COVID-19 virus has led to difficulties in many branches of the economy, including significant effects on the urban transport industry. Thus, countries around the world have introduced different mobility policies during the pandemic. Due to government restrictions and the changed behaviors of transport users, companies providing modern urban mobility solutions were forced to introduce new business practices to their services. These practices are also apparent in the context of the electric shared mobility industry. Although many aspects and problems of electric shared mobility have been addressed in scientific research, pandemic scenarios have not been taken into account. Noticing this research gap, we aimed to update a previously developed model of factors that influence the operation of electric shared mobility by incorporating aspects related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on this industry. This article aims to identify the main factors influencing the electric shared mobility industry during the COVID-19 and post-lockdown periods, together with their operation areas and the involved stakeholders. The research was carried out on the basis of expert interviews, social network analysis (SNA), and the use of the R environment. The article also presents sustainable transport management recommendations for cities and transport service operators, which can be implemented after a lockdown caused by an epidemic. The results in this paper can be used to support transport modeling and the creation of new policies, business models, and sustainable development recommendations. The contents will also be helpful to researchers worldwide in preparing literature reviews for articles related to sustainable management in the COVID-19 pandemic reality.

On-demand service delivery under asymmetric information: Priority pricing, market selection, and horizontal substitution

For on-demand service platforms in general (including food, grocery, and fresh-product delivery platforms) and, in particular, shared-mobility service systems, customers are plausibly heterogeneous in their private delay sensitivity and preference for products. This paper develops incentive contracts with substitution or non-substitution strategies, consisting of steady-state scheduling rules, probabilistic routing policies, binary admission controls and pricing strategies, to maximize platforms’ revenue. Furthermore, we analyze the influence of information structures on the design of the incentive contract and find that if the horizontal preference is observable, the service provider should pay information rent to patient customers. However, if the delay sensitivity is observable, the first-best result continues to be optimal.

User characteristics of shared-mobility: a comparative analysis of car-sharing and ride-hailing services

ABSTRACT Over the past 20 years, shared-mobility services have become important transportation options, as they provide on-demand, door-to-door mobility without requiring vehicle ownership. Although low-income communities may benefit especially from the services due to their lower vehicle ownership and high dependency on public transit, scant research has been conducted exploring how frequently these individuals utilize the shared-mobility programmes. This study develops a mathematical model based on Zero Inflated Negative Binomial Regression to understand the effects of individuals’ sociodemographic characteristics, financial status, and travel behaviours on car-sharing and ride-hailing usage. The model outcomes indicate that the individuals experiencing financial burden are more likely to use car-sharing services while those with a higher income tend to use ride-hailing. Ride-hailing tends to serve those who have lower miles driven or those who use public transit. Results show that car-sharing and ride-hailing could provide create synergetic impacts to attract more riders to the shared-mobility services.

Agent-Based Framework for Self-Organization of Collective and Autonomous Shuttle Fleets

The mobility of people is at the center of transportation planning and decision-making of the cities of the future. In order to accelerate the transition to zero-emissions and to maximize air quality benefits, smart cities are prioritizing walking, cycling, shared mobility services and public transport over the use of private cars. Extensive progress has been made in autonomous and electric cars. Autonomous Vehicles (AV) are increasingly capable of moving without full control of humans, automating some aspects of driving, such as steering or braking. For these reasons, cities are investing in the infrastructure and technology needed to support connected, multi-modal transit networks that include shared electric Autonomous Vehicles (AV). The relationship between traditional public transport and new mobility services is in the spotlight and need to be rethought. This paper proposes an agent-based simulation framework that allows for the creation and simulation of mobility scenarios to investigate the impact of new mobility modes on a city daily life. It lets traffic planners explore the cooperative integration of AV using a decentralized control approach. A prototype has been implemented and validated with data of the city of Trento.

Simulation of Potential Use Cases for Shared Mobility Services in the City of Ann Arbor

In this paper, we model and simulate special use cases of on-demand shared mobility services for the City of Ann Arbor, MI. We define shared mobility as any motor-vehicle-served transportation option between private vehicles and public transit, such as taxis, demand-responsive transit, and dynamic shuttles. Here, we present and evaluate a suite of four different service types that could potentially complement existing transportation services in Ann Arbor. A novel aspect of this study is that it tests scenarios that were developed in consultation with city planners looking for insights into real-world problems. This study used fleet simulation software to test four service configuration scenarios for a hypothetical on-demand shared mobility service: citywide shuttle, a corridor-based downtown shuttle, a park and ride shuttle, and a transit-complementary service. Three levels of demand were tested for each scenario: 3%, 9%, and 15% of all private vehicle trips in the city. Findings indicated that citywide on-demand shared mobility services struggled to achieve higher vehicle occupancies than private vehicles at approximately 1.4. Service configurations with aggregated trip density resulted in slightly improved occupancies, as found in downtown- and park and ride shuttle scenarios. More impactful was aggregating demand by moving from “many-to-many” routing as with citywide floating services to “many-to-one” routing as with downtown- or park and ride shuttle services, which increased vehicle occupancy from 1.4 to almost 2. Lastly, we also discuss the potential benefits of reduced congestion and parking needs.

The orchestration of sustainable mobility service innovations: understanding the manifold agency of car sharing operators

Service-based alternatives to private vehicles and public transport are increasing. These innovations are hoped to boost the transition to sustainable mobility, addressing challenges such as congestion, air quality and the large share of CO2 resulting from traffic. To achieve this transition, there is an urgent need for collaboration between private companies and public authorities, especially locally. We claim that insufficient attention is paid to the agencies of the practical actors, such as car sharing operators, which is the key to understanding what this collaboration requires. Orchestrating the collaboration successfully is also a prerequisite for the sustainability of the services. We use interview data from car sharing operators and public authorities in Finnish cities to analyze the local-level implementation of shared mobility services. Our results show how the local public authorities play a crucial role in allowing the services to flourish but also ensure the services’ environmental and social sustainability.

Survey Data Analysis on Intention to Use Shared Mobility Services

Shared mobility is a service that allows users to share various transportation modes and use them with reservations when necessary. It started with private automotive car-sharing and ride-sharing services. Currently, it operates on a wider range, including personal mobility devices such as electric bicycles and scooters. The purpose of this study is to derive a direction for providing future shared mobility services through analysis of factors affecting the usage intention of both current and prospective users. The survey targets 753 citizens living in Gyeonggi Province, Korea. The survey period is from February 12, 2020, to February 26, 2020. In this study, a logistic regression analysis is conducted to investigate the factors affecting the use intention of shared mobility. The analysis results show that gender, car ownership, and education, among variables reflecting socio-demographic characteristics, have significant effects on intention to use shared mobility. Moreover, we find that experience factors, including mainly used transportation modes, ownership of shared mobility device, past experience in similar services, satisfaction of existing shared mobility services, and distance from the home to the nearest bus stop, are also statistically influential. The analysis results are expected to lay the foundation for the introduction of shared mobility services and can be used as data for planning smart mobility services in the future.

Impact Assessments of New Mobility Services: A Critical Review

Assessing the impact of new mobility systems (e.g., shared mobility services, mobility as a service (MaaS), and Mobihubs) in urban contexts remains a challenging endeavor due to the varying priorities (social, economic, and environmental) of different stakeholders and restricted and/or limited availability of data. In a broad sense, new mobility services (NMS) can be characterized as a way of optimizing the ownership and use of a variety of mobility resources, tailored to the needs of an entire (urban) community. In this context, providing an up-to-date and critical review on the impact of NMS is the main contribution and added value of this study. To this end, this study presents an in-depth review of NMS and their diverse features (e.g., car sharing, bike sharing, Mobihubs, etc.), as an alternative to privately-owned travel modes. By reviewing more than 100 relevant sources from academic journals (Google Scholar, Science Direct, and Web of Science) and media reports, this study explains the key elements on how to address the impact assessment of NMS in terms of social, environmental, and economic aspects of sustainable mobility services. This study concludes that the implementation of NMS offers the potential to promote efficiency, sustainability, social equity, and quality of life. The main findings of this study serve as a perfect starting point for mobility providers and policymakers who are concerned about the growing demands for clean and green cities.

Post-COVID-19 travel behaviour patterns: impact on the willingness to pay of users of public transport and shared mobility services in Spain

BackgroundThe COVID-19 crisis has meant a significant change in the lifestyle of millions of people worldwide. With a lockdown that lasted almost three months and an impulse to new normality, transport demand has suffered a considerable impact in the Spanish case. It is mandatory to explore the effect of the pandemic on changes in travel behaviour in post-COVID-19 times.MethodologyA nationwide survey was carried out during the lockdown in Spring 2020 to overview the recent changes. The survey collected both stated preferences (socio-demographic characteristics and mobility-related attributes), and revealed preferences (individuals’ habits, especially in the frequency of the trips according to the trip purpose, and opinions regarding the willingness and acceptability of these changes, and which actors would have to drive them, and how) of individuals. This paper aims to study and understand the willingness to adopt a set of measures to improve the safety conditions of public transport and shared mobility services against possible contagion from COVID-19 and the willingness to pay for them.ResultsThe results obtained show that some measures, such as the increase of supply and vehicle disinfection, result in a greater willingness to use public transport in post-COVID-19 times. Similarly, the provision of covers for handlebars and steering wheels also significantly increases individuals’ willingness to use sharing services. However, respondents expect that these measures and improvements would be implemented but maintaining the same pre-COVID-19 prices. The results of this research might help operators deploy strategies to adopt their services and retain users.

The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Consumers' Intention to Use Shared-Mobility Services in German Cities.

One sector that severely suffers from the outbreak of the coronavirus is carsharing (i.e., short-term car access). The downswing of the carsharing industry may not only experience negative economic consequences but also ecological ones. Carsharing has the potential to reduce emissions, occupied space, and congestion and hence can actively contribute to mitigating climate change. As Bill Gates strikingly states: “Covid-19 is awful. Climate change could be worse.” For this reason, it is important to understand which underlying mechanisms drive carsharing usage during the Covid-19 pandemic. The current research has the overall objective to provide deeper insights into the mediating mechanisms that explain carsharing usage intention during the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, we draw on signaling theory to explore how different claims (environmental claims, safety claims) that prompt two different opposing underlying processes (perceived ecological benefits, perceived physical risk) influence carsharing usage intention. An online experiment employing a 3 (environmental claim vs. safety claim vs. no claim) × 2 (high information diagnosticity vs. low information diagnosticity) between-subjects design with participants acquired by the online panel platform Clickworker was conducted in April 2020. Fictitious labels and fictitious advertisements served as stimulus material and constituted the five experimental conditions. The data were analyzed by a multicategorial moderated mediation analysis and a multivariate analysis of covariance. Results reveal that environmental claims can stimulate perceived ecological benefits, which, in turn, positively affect carsharing usage intention. Interestingly, our research demonstrates that safety claims cannot decrease perceived physical risk in the context of Covid-19 and carsharing. Nevertheless, perceived physical risk has a (marginal) negative influence on carsharing usage intention and hence should not be discarded altogether. The findings of this article offer new insights into the mental processes that guide consumer decision-making during the coronavirus crisis and also offer important policy implications by highlighting the relevance of environmental claims during the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the negative influence of perceived physical risk on carsharing usage intention points to the need for alternative measures to reduce users' risk perceptions.

Urban transportation at an inflection point: An analysis of potential influencing factors

Urban transportation is in the midst of a two-fold transformation: On the one hand, cities are beginning to acknowledge their climate responsibilities and are seeking to establish environmentally-friendly, sustainable transport systems. On the other hand, new transportation trends, such as shared mobility and autonomous driving, carry the potential to disruptively change conventional practices. In this study, we develop an activity-based transport demand model to quantify the effects of potential influencing factors on urban transportation in a synthetic city. We develop 18 scenarios to investigate urban transportation against the backdrop of mode availability, the deployment of shared mobility services, urban structure and societal change, such as urbanization and an aging population, as well as behavioral shifts in mode choice preferences. With respect to the results, we highlight the derived modal split for a city without private cars but with access to shared autonomous vehicles for all agents: We find a distribution of mode choices of 55% for walking and biking, 40% for public transportation and 5% for shared modes. Given this modal split, the total driven distance, as well as the total number of vehicles in the city, decreases by over 90% against current levels. Thus, an efficient future urban transport system should build upon public transportation for meeting the major share of transport demand, with slow modes for convenient travel across short distances and shared mobility for the intermodal connection of both.

Promoting User Participation of Shared Mobility in the Sharing Economy: Evidence from Chinese Bike Sharing Services

User participation plays a critical role in the business success of shared mobility services. This study classifies user participation behavior into two different types (in- and extra-role participations), integrates the motivation–opportunity–ability (MOA) model and social exchange theory (SET) to identify key antecedents, and empirically examines the influences of user–user, user–provider, and user–service interaction-related factors on user participation in the context of bike sharing services. The results of structural equation model analysis with 438 bike sharing service users in China reveal that altruism, rewards, and user knowledge enhance both in- and extra-role participations, whereas perceived ease of use promotes only user in-role participation, and both user satisfaction and commitment increase only user extra-role participation. Rewards are also found to promote user satisfaction, ultimately increasing user commitment. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on value co-creation and customer cooperation behavior in the sharing economy and provides practical implications to both managers of bike sharing services and policymakers for urban transportation and ICT-enabled sustainable development.

Difference in travel behavior between immigrants in the u.s. and us born residents: The immigrant effect for car-sharing, ride-sharing, and bike-sharing services

Understanding immigrants’ travel behavior is important to transportation planners and policymakers working to implement better transportation planning and public policies to serve those needs. The recent changes to the transportation system, specifically, the recent emergence of shared mobility services, such as car-sharing, ride-sharing, and bike-sharing, may have resulted in changes in how immigrants travel. Thus, we explored two research questions: (1) whether immigrants in the U.S. are more likely to rely on the three newly emerging transportation modes than US-born persons, and (2) whether the assimilation theory can be applied to the modes. To answer these questions, we used data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey and employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models to understand the specific behavior of immigrant travelers.The models found the “immigrant effect” only for car-sharing services and bike-sharing programs; that is, relative to U.S. born residents, immigrants in the U.S. use car sharing and bike-sharing services more frequently, while we found an insignificant association in ride-sharing apps use. However, the negative binomial models suggested that immigrants use car sharing and ride sharing less frequently than expected. Immigrants who are in their first few years of living in the U.S. use smartphone rideshare app more frequently, confirming the “assimilation theory.” The results of the predicted frequency of the use indicated that with all other independent variables held constant, U.S. born residents use car-sharing and ride-sharing services more frequently than immigrants, though the difference is marginal. However, immigrants would still tend to use bike share programs more frequently rather than U.S. born residents.

Sharing or owning autonomous vehicles? Comprehending the role of ideology in the adoption of autonomous vehicles in the society of automobility

This article investigates the role of hegemonic ideology and the symbolic meaning of Autonomous Vehicle (AV) ownership in the society of automobility. Emerging mobility technologies, including connected shared platforms and automation, are disrupting urban transportation. There is a pervasive expectation that the utilisation of Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs), by offering an efficient, flexible and affordable on-demand mobility, will eventually replace ubiquitous private car ownership. Researchers have mostly considered the transition of car ownership to SAVs based on positivist-empiricist approaches. The meaning of the car and its functions are not limited to the instrumental usage that facilitates mobility; instead, the car has other functions such as demonstrating the socio-economic status of its owner and symbolising his/her subjective identity, which is embedded in the dominant ideology and its symbolic structure. Automobility is a component of hegemonic ideology and its symbolic system that has shaped our car-dependent societies over the last century. The ideological and symbolic functions of car ownership have often been neglected when discussing AVs of the future. This research uses Reflexive Thematic Analysis (RTA) to analyse a mixed data set including 3 focus group interviews and 192 residents’ responses to a questionnaire-based survey in Auckland. The results indicate that there was considerable heterogeneity in participants’ preferences for using AVs, but relatively less heterogeneity in sharing mobility services. The research reveals that the provision of alternative smart shared mobility options does not subsequently reduce pervasive car ownership. The research concludes that the hegemonic ideology and its symbolic mechanism promote automobility that will significantly steer private car owners towards AV usage instead of the expected shared mobility. Therefore, in the context of the society of automobility, AVs should be considered as a technological transformation rather than a paradigm-shift towards shared mobility services.

Alternative futures for shared mobility systems: impacts on transport planning tools and techniques

On-demand mobility services are changing the way we move in cities, fostered by digitalisation, vehicle automation and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) platforms. Transport planning tools and techniques are expected to keep up to date to support decision-makers on the successful integration of these new mobility options in the urban transport mix. However, the evolution of the emerging mobility solutions is highly uncertain, as it is a function of complex factors that go beyond the influence of transport stakeholders. This poses a challenge for the definition of the requirements that data analysis techniques and modelling tools will face. This paper presents a series of explorative scenarios that provide different contexts for the evolution of urban mobility in Europe, in order to grasp the plausible pathways that shared mobility services will follow in the upcoming decades. The scenarios are adapted from those developed by the climate change research community and are used in a Delphi poll to gather expert visions on how shared mobility services will evolve. The availability of a range of possible futures for shared mobility facilitates the identification of the capabilities that transport decision-makers will demand from data analysis techniques and modelling tools.