Vote Share Research Articles

Labor Unions and the Electoral Consequences of Trade Liberalization

Abstract We show that the Brazilian trade liberalization in the early 1990s led to a permanent relative decline in the vote share of left-wing presidential candidates in the regions more affected by the tariff cuts. This happened even though the shock, implemented by a right-wing party, induced a contraction in manufacturing and formal employment in the more affected regions, and despite the left’s identification with protectionist policies. To rationalize this response, we consider a new institutional channel for the political effects of trade shocks: the weakening of labor unions. We provide support for this mechanism in two steps. First, we show that union presence—proxied by the number of workers directly employed by unions, by union density, and by the number of union establishments—declined in regions that became more exposed to foreign competition. Second, we show that the negative effect of tariff reductions on the votes for the left was driven exclusively by political parties with historical links to unions. Furthermore, the impact of the trade liberalization on the vote share of these parties was significant only in regions that had unions operating before the reform. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that tariff cuts reduced the vote share of the left partly through the weakening of labor unions. This institutional channel is fundamentally different from the individual-level responses, motivated by economic or identity concerns, that have been considered in the literature.

Klimapolitisches Engagement auf kommunaler Ebene in Deutschland – Entwicklung eines Index zu Bewusstsein, Konzeption und Durchführung von Klimaschutz und Klimawandelanpassung

DThis paper presents an additive index on climate policy engagement at the municipal level, based on the three dimensions awareness, conception and implementation of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The distortion of the index is based on the self-perception and personal assessment of municipal decision-makers, which were collected and evaluated as part of a primary survey (postal survey). The index shows how strongly a municipality is committed to climate policy. Thus, it represents an extension of previous indices that either only consider climate mitigation or adaptation or are only based exclusively on secondary statistics. The second part of the paper describes the application of the index in three counties or 51 municipalities in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. The interpretation takes place in the context of structural characteristics of the municipalities concerned (number of inhabitants, share of votes of different parties, geographical location). The distribution of the index values shows a similar awareness in climate protection and climate change adaptation, but an increasing discrepancy in the implementation of adaptation-specific measures.

The BJP's Drive for Hegemony

ABSTRACT: In 2014, the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party captured national power in the world's largest democracy. Under its controversial new leader, Narendra Modi, the BJP established India's first single-party majority government since 1984 and became the only party besides the Indian National Congress to accomplish this feat since the country won independence, in 1947. In the 2019 general election, despite a disappointing economic record, growing communal strife, and disruptive policy decisions, the BJP increased its vote share and seats in Parliament. The victory emboldened the party to further its longstanding agenda to transform India's secular constitutional democracy into a de facto Hindu nation. Modi remained popular throughout India's terrible pandemic. Now, with a return of high economic growth and the unity of opposition parties in question, most observers expect him to win the 2024 general election, which concludes in June.

Does Brown beat Biesiada? Name fluency and electoral success

Of the myriad cues voters rely on to evaluate political candidates, only one cue is available to all voters in all candidate-based elections — the candidates’ names. Drawing upon multiple decades of election data in local and congressional elections in the United States, I examine the relationship between the processing fluency (pronounceability and commonality) of political candidates’ names and vote share. I observe a strong, positive relationship for name pronounceability and more ambiguous results for name commonality. A one-standard deviation increase in pronounceability is associated with an increased vote share of 0.8 percentage points in congressional general elections, 1.4 percentage points in congressional primary elections, and 0.29 percentage points in local elections. Despite some sensitivity to how fluency is conceptualized, these findings suggest that the phonological characteristics of candidates’ names are consequential heuristics that voters use to evaluate candidates. Future research should seek to unpack the causal processes underlying these results by disentangling the racial and ethnic cues embedded in names.

It's trade, stupid! How changes in trade competitiveness affect incumbents' electoral success

AbstractThe consequences of economic globalization on electoral outcomes have recently become a prominent topic of research. We complement the emerging literature on this topic by studying whether changes in a subnational region's trade competitiveness affect the incumbent's vote share in that region. Using a novel dataset that relates subnational trade competitiveness to election results in 29 countries over a 20‐year period, we show that this is indeed the case. We also show that this effect is most pronounced for elections where the clarity of responsibility is high. Finally, we find mixed evidence for a moderating effect of incumbents' economic ideology as a moderator. These findings also contribute to the broader economic voting literature.

Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe

We document the spiral of populism in Europe and the direct and indirect role of economic insecurity shocks. Using survey data on individual voting, we make two contributions to the literature. (i) Economic insecurity shocks have a significant impact on the populist vote share, directly as demand for protection, and indirectly through the induced changes in trust and attitudes. (ii) A key consequence of increased economic insecurity is a drop in turnout. The impact of this largely neglected turnout effect is substantial: conditional on voting, when economic insecurity increases, almost 40% of the induced change in the vote for a populist party comes from the turnout channel.

Does executive autonomy reduce second-order election effects?

The second-order election (SOE) model expects voters to punish parties in national government and reward opposition, small and new parties because there is ‘less at stake’ in an SOE. One key assumption that is rarely studied is whether SOE-effects depend on the extent to which voters can impact the selection of the executive in an SOE. This article argues that executive ­autonomy – i.e. the extent to which executives are independent from the parliament regarding their formation, termination and execution of their competences – increases the impact of authority. Executive autonomy reduces SOE-effects when authority is high but increases SOE-effects when authority is low. An empirical analysis of 41,603 vote share swings for 4733 parties competing in 2665 elections held in 282 regions in 14 European countries between 1945 and 2019 confirms the hypotheses. These results have important implications for electoral democracy and party competition at the regional, national and European level.

Factors Causing the Decline of Islam-Based Political Parties Existence on General Elections 2014

The dynamics of the existence of Islamic political parties on the historical stage of democracy in Indonesia have experienced unstable political dynamics. This is inseparable from the plurality of Indonesian society which does not only contain Muslims but is diverse with a diversity of other religions. This dynamic can be seen in the track record of participation of Islamic political parties in general elections in Indonesia. The vote share of Islamic political parties, which has tended to decline since the reform era, is a matter of note and homework to be completed immediately. Many factors certainly contribute to the small number of Islamic political parties' votes. Party characteristics and ideology are at stake in society's assessment of the existence of Islamic political parties.

Racial Bias and U.S. Presidential Candidate Preference

Abstract Much research has suggested that Republican candidates in U.S. presidential elections benefit from voter bias against non-White groups. The present study supplements this research by including in the analysis bias against Whites. Estimates from the American National Election Studies 2020 Time Series Study indicated that a nontrivial percentage of the U.S. population has a bias that disfavors Whites, with this bias more prevalent among Democrats than Republicans. Further analyses estimated the extent to which the type of voter racial bias that favors Republican presidential candidates offsets the type of voter racial bias that favors Democratic presidential candidates. Estimates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election indicated that the two-party vote share for Donald Trump was higher among voters who rated Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Asian-Americans equal to each other on 0-to-100 feeling thermometers than among the full population of two-party voters, suggesting that Donald Trump was disadvantaged on net by the electorate including racially biased voters. These results call into question research that has used an unrepresentative set of racial attitudes to suggest that, in recent U.S. presidential elections, only Republican candidates have benefitted from racial bias among the electorate.

Polarization and Rationality of Political Choices of the People of Padang City in the 2024 Presidential Election

The 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) in Indonesia, including in West Sumatra and the City of Padang, is a strategic battle, not only in the context of heading towards a Golden Indonesia in 2045 but taking place in a unique configuration and axis of political power and ideology and development ideology, namely between the political ideology of Islamism with Nationalism, and between the development ideology "Change" (01) and the axis of development ideology "Continue" (Jokowisme). Even in the electoral districts of West Sumatra province and Padang City where Jokowi lost badly in the 2014 presidential election with a score of 23.1% vs. 76.9% (Prabowo), and in the 2019 presidential election he lost again absolutely with a vote share of only 14.05% vs. 85.95% (Prabowo), in fact in the 2024 presidential election Pabowo (02) experienced defeat, and was won by the pair Anis-Amin (01) (28.18%), Prabowo-Gibran (02) (16.56%), and Ganjar-Mahfud (1.87%). This research uses a quantitative approach and survey methods, a population of 666,178 and a sample of 5362 spread across 2681 polling stations, with random sampling techniques and questionnaire instruments, and percentage and correlational data analysis techniques assisted by SPSS version 20, so in accordance with the objectives, the findings are that: 1). The political attitudes of rationality are less strong (55.4) and 15.3% are irrational, while those with strong rational potential are 70%, and the not strong rational category is 30%.

Socialized with "old cleavages" or "new dimensions": An Age-Period-Cohort analysis on electoral support in Western European multiparty systems (1949–2021)

Across Western Europe, the electoral base of formerly dominating parties on the left and the right has been eroding in the past decades. In contrast, both far-right parties and green parties could expand their vote share in numerous elections all over Western Europe - especially among younger voters. Still, those transformations in multiparty systems remain understudied: Are those electoral differences representing a cohort effect within the left and within the right bloc? This study uses survey data from ten Western European countries spanning over 60 years to test for cohort differences in political blocs. By applying multilevel logistic regression models and generalized additive mixed models, the analysis yields generational differences within the left and the right, with more recent cohorts being more likely to vote for greens than other left-wing and more likely to prefer the far-right over other right-wing parties. Those results shed light on the cohort-driven electoral realignment in Western Europe.

Terrorism, counter‐terrorism, and voting: The case of Turkey

AbstractThis paper empirically tests the impact of terrorism and counter‐terrorism on voting by focusing on the two 2015 general elections in Turkey ‐ and the 2011 general election. This period offers a unique case because, after the first election, the ongoing peace process between the incumbent party (AKP), the political party associated with the perpetrators (pro‐Kurdish political party, HDP), and the imprisoned leader of the terrorist organization (PKK) was canceled. Instead, terror attacks recurred and curfews were implemented as counter‐terrorism measures. This enables the impact of curfews and terror attacks on electoral outcomes to be analysed in a difference‐in‐differences setting. Terror attacks are estimated to reduce the incumbent's vote share by 3.2% points, while increasing the vote share of the party associated with the perpetrators by 3.6% points. Curfews are estimated to cancel out the impact of terror attacks in attacked municipalities and decrease the incumbent's vote share by 4.7% points in non‐attacked municipalities.

Addressing sample selection bias for machine learning methods

SummaryWe study approaches for adjusting machine learning methods when the training sample differs from the prediction sample on unobserved dimensions. The machine learning literature predominately assumes selection only on observed dimensions. Common approaches are to weight or include variables that influence selection as solutions to selection on observables. Simulation results show that selection on unobservables increases mean squared prediction error using popular machine‐learning algorithms. Common machine learning practices such as weighting or including variables that influence selection into the training or prediction sample often worsen sample selection bias. We propose two control function approaches that remove the effects of selection bias before training and find that they reduce mean‐squared prediction error in simulations. We apply these approaches to predicting the vote share of the incumbent in gubernatorial elections using previously observed re‐election bids. We find that ignoring selection on unobservables leads to substantially higher predicted vote shares for the incumbent than when the control function approach is used.

Do natural disasters affect local elections? An empirical examination using subnational electoral data

AbstractDo natural disasters affect election results? Some studies have shown that natural disasters negatively impact subsequent elections, while others do not. This study investigated the link between natural disasters and local elections using data from the Japanese prefectural governor elections for the years 1985–2015. A rich data set is available for prefectural governor elections in Japan that includes information on who won, the vote shares of all candidates, and when the election was held, among others. We found empirical evidence that the number of days between an election and most recent disaster before election positively impacted the vote share of the incumbent/successor. In other words, an incumbent/successor is likely to have less support in the election immediately following a disaster by the constituencies, but can get more support as time passes after the disaster. Moreover, political alignment with the central ruling parties positively affects the vote share of an incumbent/successor over time between an election and the most recent disaster. These results suggest a possibility that politicians seek popularity not through the implementation of proper disaster recovery policies but by taking advantage of their connection with central ruling parties, which may harm citizens' welfare in the long run.

The 2022 State Elections in Uttar Pradesh and the RSS-isation of the BJP

Since 2014, the BJP has become increasingly dominant in Uttar Pradesh, India, a state where, as recently as 2012, its vote share had slumped to 15 percent. This paper examines, through ethnographic field research with party workers and others, the reasons for the turnaround in the party’s fortunes. A large part of the answer lies in the increasing strength of BJP party organisation, modelled on an RSS template, as well as the increasing coordination between the RSS and the BJP, with RSS personnel frequently seconded to the BJP. This intense closeness between the RSS and the BJP is a new post-2014 feature, something that did not characterise earlier periods of the BJP in power. A second key factor, building on the BJP’s increased organisational capacity, and one long advocated by the RSS, is the mobilisation of state welfare benefits by the party and the concerted effort to convert welfare recipients, coming from all communities, into supporters. A third key factor, at which the BJP is increasingly adept and where RSS organisational skills provide a significant advantage, is the micromanagement of caste dynamics and religious polarisation as and when required to gain and maintain a political advantage.

Conservative Talk Radio and political persuasion in the US,1950–1970

Conservative Talk Radio continues to shape US politics in the 21st century, but it has a deeper history. Using newly digitized archival records, we provide new evidence on the electoral effects of Conservative Talk Radio in the historically consequential period from 1950 to 1970. Conservative radio hosts like Clarence Manion, Billy James Hargis, and Carl McIntire rapidly expanded their network during the early 1960s before the Kennedy administration took regulatory steps to dismantle their business model. We find that in counties where these shows aired on local stations, the Republican vote share increased following their introduction. Anticipatory effects are small and insignificant, which supports a causal interpretation of this effect.

Election symbols and vote choice: evidence from India

Abstract A large literature has shown that ballot order and ballot structure can influence vote choice. We focus on another behavioral cue for voting, the symbols that are assigned to candidates in many democracies. We take advantage of a naturally occurring experiment in India, where independent candidates can choose from a list of free symbols and conflicting choices are resolved by a drawing of lots. We find that winning the draw has a substantial positive effect on vote share. We also find some evidence that candidates attempt to choose their symbols strategically, for instance choosing household goods common in their constituencies.

‘Thin’ loyalty and declining attachment to the African National Congress

ABSTRACT The African National Congress (ANC) has been an electorally dominant party in South African politics since 1994, with its vote share peaking in 2004 before falling to a low in the most recent 2019 general elections. Simultaneously, there have been much sharper declines in levels of ANC partisanship and assessments of government performance among the party’s own voters. This presents a puzzle: Why do a significant share of ANC voters continue to support a party that they do not ‘feel close’ to and do not believe is adequately managing the economy or the delivery of public goods? Based upon original qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 111 intended ANC voters, I argue that there is a sizeable portion of ANC voters whose connection to the party is characterised by a conditional loyalty that falls short of a more thoroughgoing partisanship. The persistence of ‘thin’ loyalty alongside habitual and strategic voting for the ANC – especially among the ‘born free’ generation – has obfuscated the extent of decline in the perceived efficacy of voting and overall satisfaction with the outcomes of democratic politics.

Examining the Electoral Dynamics: A Comparative Analysis of National Party Performance in the Past Three Indian General Elections

This research explores the complex electoral dynamics of India’s major national parties, focusing on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) over the last three general elections. The electoral landscape in India is intricately shaped by the interplay of national and regional political entities, as well as the influence of civil society organizations. Central to this dynamic are national parties, which attain their status by meeting specific criteria in the Representation of the People Act, of 1951. Through a detailed analysis of vote share and seat distribution, the study uncovers significant trends and patterns that highlight the evolving electoral landscape. It examines changes in the overall vote share of these parties, identifying factors contributing to their fluctuating performance. Additionally, the research compares the electoral outcomes of the BJP and INC, providing insights into the competitive dynamics between these two dominant political forces. A critical aspect of this study is the investigation of regional variations and their impact on the electoral performance of national parties. The research identifies emerging trends and shifts in regional political alignments by exploring how regional contexts and voter preferences influence election results. Furthermore, the role of civil society organizations is scrutinized to understand their potential as catalysts in shaping electoral outcomes, mobilizing voter bases, and influencing public opinion. By integrating quantitative electoral data with qualitative analysis of political strategies and regional influences, this research aims to comprehensively understand the factors driving the electoral success of major national parties in India. The findings offer valuable insights into the electoral dynamics between national and regional political entities and the broader implications for India’s democratic processes and political stability.

Die hessische Landtagswahl vom 8. Oktober 2023: Die Schwäche der Ampelparteien und das überraschende Ende von Schwarz-Grün

The Hesse state election on October 8, 2023, took place in a polarized political context that was characterized by a decreasing support for the parties of the federal government and the several implications of Russia’s attack on Ukraine for German and European politics . At the same time, the state government consisting of the CDU and Alliance 90/The Greens worked relatively conflict-free and remained stable even after the change in the office of Prime Minister from Volker Bouffier to Boris Rhein . The Social Democrats, as the largest opposition party, nominated the Federal Minister of the Interior, Nancy Faeser, as their top candidate and thus a politician well-known in Hessian state politics and nationwide . The election results reflected the weak support of the parties forming the federal government (SPD, Alliance 90/The Greens and FDP) in the electorate . The CDU benefited from the high level of dissatisfaction with the federal government and from the Prime Minister’s incumbency advantage . The CDU vote share was almost twice as high as the vote share of the AfD, which became the second strongest party in Hesse with 18 .2 percent of the vote and achieved its best result to date in a West German state election . The Left failed to win parliamentary representation . The CDU was able to choose its coalition partner between Alliance 90/The Greens and the SPD . The Christian Democrats selected – because of a smaller programmatic distance, as the analysis of the parties’ election manifestos indicates – the Social Democrats as their new junior partner . The analysis of the office and policy payoffs for CDU and SPD shows that the Christian Democrats were better able to enforce their office and policy preferences than the SPD .