Die hessische Landtagswahl vom 8. Oktober 2023: Die Schwäche der Ampelparteien und das überraschende Ende von Schwarz-Grün

Abstract

The Hesse state election on October 8, 2023, took place in a polarized political context that was characterized by a decreasing support for the parties of the federal government and the several implications of Russia’s attack on Ukraine for German and European politics . At the same time, the state government consisting of the CDU and Alliance 90/The Greens worked relatively conflict-free and remained stable even after the change in the office of Prime Minister from Volker Bouffier to Boris Rhein . The Social Democrats, as the largest opposition party, nominated the Federal Minister of the Interior, Nancy Faeser, as their top candidate and thus a politician well-known in Hessian state politics and nationwide . The election results reflected the weak support of the parties forming the federal government (SPD, Alliance 90/The Greens and FDP) in the electorate . The CDU benefited from the high level of dissatisfaction with the federal government and from the Prime Minister’s incumbency advantage . The CDU vote share was almost twice as high as the vote share of the AfD, which became the second strongest party in Hesse with 18 .2 percent of the vote and achieved its best result to date in a West German state election . The Left failed to win parliamentary representation . The CDU was able to choose its coalition partner between Alliance 90/The Greens and the SPD . The Christian Democrats selected – because of a smaller programmatic distance, as the analysis of the parties’ election manifestos indicates – the Social Democrats as their new junior partner . The analysis of the office and policy payoffs for CDU and SPD shows that the Christian Democrats were better able to enforce their office and policy preferences than the SPD .