Sexual Recidivism Research Articles

Exploratory rasch analysis of a static-99R clinical cohort assessment.

Modern test theory supplements the more prevalent classic methods for assessing test properties. However, such an assessment of the commonly used sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, Static-99R, has yet to be attempted. This study evaluated the psychometric properties of said instrument using Rasch analysis. The clinical cohort assessed consisted of individuals with mental disorders convicted of a sexual offense (N = 146). Results showed that the original ten-item Static‑99R did not meet the Rasch model requirements, and revisions of the instrument with seven and nine items each only marginally improved performance. More reliable results could likely have been obtained with a larger, non-clinical sample and a more randomized distribution of missing data. Despite the consistently poor performance of item 3 ("Index non-sexual violence") in all three analyses, reliability was slightly improved by dichotomizing the only two polytomous items in the Static-99R; items 1 ("Age at release from index offense") and 5 ("Prior sexual offenses"). These results may be of interest considering the significant change of splitting the formerly dichotomous item 1 into four different response categories in the revision of Static-99 to Static-99R.

Assessing the Effectiveness of a Specialized, Field-Based Treatment Program for Youth Who Have Committed Sexual Offenses in an Australian Jurisdiction.

This study provides an evaluation of recidivism outcomes for a specialized, field-based treatment program for youth who perpetrate sexual offenses in an Australian jurisdiction. Using survival analyses, recidivism outcomes for the treatment group (n = 200), who were followed for an average of 5.07 years (SD = 3.13), were contrasted with a sample of sexually offending youth who were either referred but not accepted or not referred to the program (n = 295). Rates of sexual recidivism were low and not significantly different between the groups (9.5% for treated and 10.8% for untreated). Unadjusted Cox regression results indicated that the treated group were less likely to violently recidivate compared to the untreated group (HR = 1.41, 95% CI [1.01, 1.96]), but this effect became nonsignificant when controlling for offense history covariates (HR = 1.22, 95% CI [0.87, 1.72]). Both groups exhibited high rates of nonsexual offending during the follow-up period, and treatment factors including clinician-rated success, were found to be associated with a lower frequency of reoffending after treatment. Findings highlight important considerations for both practice and research. First, findings suggest the need for specialized programs to ensure factors associated with general recidivism are also addressed in treatment; second, findings reinforce potential utility for clinician-rated and structured assessments to inform treatment planning and outcomes. Finally, the findings raise the importance of appropriate comparison groups when designing evaluation studies, to accurately inform policy and practice.

Explaining Male Sex Offender Recidivism: Accounting for Differences in Correctional Supervision.

Contrary to public opinion, empirical studies have consistently shown that persons convicted of a sexual offense (PCSO) are less likely to recidivate with a general offense. While researchers often point toward the surreptitiousness of sexual offending to explain low rates of recidivism, this paper tests a novel explanation: SOs recidivate at lower rates than persons convicted of a non-sexual offense (PCNSO) because they are more often revoked to prison before they are able to commit a new crime, perhaps owing to more restrictive post-release supervision guidelines. Using a sample of 196,468 unique male releases, the difference in general and sexual recidivism between PCSO (n = 29,420) and PCNSO was assessed through survival analyses (Cox regression models). Results demonstrated that PCSO were significantly less likely to be reconvicted for a general crime, but more likely for a sex offense. They were also more likely to be reincarcerated due to a revocation without a new sentence. Accounting for revocations, the difference in reconviction risk lessens between the groups but does not disappear. This analysis provides evidence that differences in community supervision are contributing to the difference in recidivism rates between PCSO and PCNSO. Implications and future research are discussed.

A multimodel meta-analysis assessing moderators of sexual recidivism as an indicator of treatment effectiveness in persons with sexual offense histories

Abstract Objectives This meta-analysis tested whether multimodel inference provides more conclusive evidence than traditional single-hypothesis testing regarding predictors that moderate sexual recidivism as an indicator of treatment effectiveness in persons with sexual offense histories. Methods A dataset including 35 studies equivalent to the meta-analysis by Holper et al. (Sex Abuse 2023; 0: 1–37) was used. Multimodel inference based on information theory tested 15 publication-, study-, treatment-, and individual-specific moderators. Results Only risk level was related to sexual recidivism. A greater posttreatment reduction in sexual recidivism was apparent in high- and medium- compared to low-risk individuals. This moderator explained 77% of the residual heterogeneity. Conclusions Compared to previous reports, the multimodel approach provided clearer evidence on which factors moderate sexual recidivism. Results corroborated the relevance of risk level, which relates to the risk-need-responsivity model. The findings may support treatment recommendations in persons with sexual offense histories in the criminal justice system.

Latent Profile Analysis Predicting Recidivism Among Women Who Have Sexually Offended.

The few existing typology studies on women who have sexually offended (WWSO) have largely been limited by small sample sizes, have not included scale scores from risk assessments, or used recidivism within their typology (instead of using typologies to predict recidivism). In our sample of 241 WWSO, we conducted a latent profile analysis and observed four, distinct profiles: "low-risk WWSO," characterized by fewer criminal history incidents and lower risk-assessment scores; "problem-endorsing WWSO," with higher probability of endorsing various life problems such as educational/employment and emotional/personal issues; "antisocial WWSO" with more criminal history incidents, alcohol/drug problems, and higher scores on psychopathy; and "combined WWSO" with characteristics of both the problem-endorsing and antisocial profiles. This last profile showed elevations in general and/or violent recidivism risk, but relatively low recidivism. There were no cases of sexual recidivism in our sample following an average 30-month follow-up period. Membership in the antisocial profile predicted general and/or violent recidivism and suggests that WWSO typologies may be useful in predicting non-sexual recidivism for this population.

The CPORT and Risk Matrix 2000 for Men Convicted of Child Sexual Exploitation Material (CSEM) Offenses: A Predictive Accuracy Comparison and Meta-Analysis

There is demand for valid risk assessment of individuals with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses. We compared the predictive performance of the Risk Matrix 2000/Sex (RM2000/S) and the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) among 365 men convicted of CSEM offenses. In fixed 5-year follow-up analyses, the CPORT (area under the curve [AUC] = .73) had significantly higher predictive accuracy than the RM2000/S (AUC = .66) for any sexual recidivism. The predictive difference for CSEM recidivism was not statistically significant. A meta-analysis found the CPORT had large effects in predicting sexual recidivism (AUC = .75) and moderate accuracy for CSEM recidivism (AUCs = .65 and .66), while the RM2000/S had moderate accuracy in predicting any sexual recidivism (AUC = .66; insufficient studies of CSEM recidivism). Results suggest a tool developed specifically for CSEM offending, such as CPORT, may perform better at predicting any sexual recidivism than adapting a general sexual offending risk tool.

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

Risk assessment is essential to effective correctional practice. For individuals with contact sexual offenses, many risk tools are available. There are fewer options, however, for individuals whose sexual offending exclusively involves child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM; legally referred to in Canada and the United States as child pornography). The present study examined the predictive validity of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools among men with CSEM offenses. We expected these tools to show moderate predictive validity across study groups. We compared the scales' discrimination and calibration across three groups: (a) 1,042 men with contact sexual offenses against children (baseline comparison), (b) 228 men with exclusive CSEM offending (no contact sexual offenses), and (c) 80 men with both contact sexual offenses and CSEM offenses. We found that the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 total scores and items had comparable (and often better) discrimination for men with CSEM offending compared with contact sexual offending against children in the prediction of any sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, and any recidivism. Calibration analyses indicated that the overall sexual recidivism rates for the median ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 scores were similar for men with exclusive CSEM offenses compared with men with any contact offending against children. Almost all of the sexual recidivism for the CSEM-exclusive group involved further CSEM offenses. This study supports the use of these tools to rank-order men with CSEM offending in terms of their risk of reoffending and to help direct treatment and management efforts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Differentiating Between Sexual Offending and Violent Non-sexual Offending in Men With Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders Using Machine Learning.

Forensic psychiatric populations commonly contain a subset of persons with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) who have committed sex offenses. A comprehensive delineation of the features that distinguish persons with SSD who have committed sex offenses from persons with SSD who have committed violent non-sex offenses could be relevant to the development of differentiated risk assessment, risk management and treatment approaches. This analysis included the patient records of 296 men with SSD convicted of at least one sex and/or violent offense who were admitted to the Centre for Inpatient Forensic Therapy at the University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich between 1982 and 2016. Using supervised machine learning, data on 461 variables retrospectively collected from the records were compared with respect to their relative importance in differentiating between men who had committed sex offenses and men who had committed violent non-sex offenses. The final machine learning model was able to differentiate between the two types of offenders with a balanced accuracy of 71.5% (95% CI = [60.7, 82.1]) and an AUC of .80 (95% CI = [.67, .93]). The main distinguishing features included sexual behaviours and interests, psychopathological symptoms and characteristics of the index offense. Results suggest that when assessing and treating persons with SSD who have committed sex offenses, it appears to be relevant to not only address the core symptoms of the disorder, but to also take into account general risk factors for sexual recidivism, such as atypical sexual interests and sexual preoccupation.

Against All Odds: The Unexplained Sexual Recidivism Drop in the United States and Canada

Against All Odds: The Unexplained Sexual Recidivism Drop in the United States and Canada

Recidivism risk in male adult sex offenders with psychopathic traits assessed by PCL-R: A systematic review.

Psychopathy has been empirically associated with various forms of antisocial behavior including sexual assault. In fact, the lack of empathy characterizing psychopathic offenders may facilitate the perpetration of more extreme violence. This systematic review aims to explore the relationship between psychopathy traits in male adult sex offenders and the increase in recidivism risk for any type of reoffence, with a special focus on sexual recidivism. From an initial sample of 757 articles related to the topic, only 14 were selected from the current literature at the end of the inclusion process. Each of these assessed the relation between psychopathy traits (measured by PCL-R) and recidivism risk in male sex offenders (age > 18), providing an effect size (quantitative findings). The results of their analysis agree with the currently available literature: the presence of psychopathic traits in sex offenders would seem to correlate with an increased risk of recidivism of general but non-sexual. Furthermore, almost half of the included works highlighted a positive relationship between psychopathy and violent reoffences. However, the limited availability of studies and the unevenness in their results indicate the need to expand future research in this direction.

There Is No Such Thing as Zero Risk of Sexual Offending

The public is justifiably concerned about the risk presented by individuals with a history of sexual crime. Given that recidivism risk varies across individuals and over time, what level is so low as to be indistinguishable from sexual recidivism risk in the general population (a desistance threshold)? This risk is not zero. Comparing census data with the number of males convicted of sexual offences in the province of British Columbia in two cohorts (2006, N = 362; 2011, N = 422), we found that approximately 1% of all adult males in British Columbia would be expected to be convicted of a sexual offence by age 50. Across the full lifespan (until 99), that proportion was estimated to be 1.38% for the 2006 cohort and 1.50% for the 2011 cohort. Other research has found that most individuals released from a sexual offence present a similarly low residual risk (< 2%) after 10 years of being offence-free in the community. Consequently, applying long-term restrictions (e.g., lifetime registration; Criminal Code of Canada §161) to such individuals serves no public protection function.

Emotional Congruence with Children: An Empirical Examination of Different Models in Men with a History of Sexually Offending Against Children.

Emotional congruence with children (ECWC) is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sexual offending against children (SOC). Based on previous research and theory, three models have been proposed to explain ECWC: Blockage, Sexual Domain, and Psychological Immaturity. Using structural equation modelling in a routine correctional sample of men adjudicated for sexual offences (n = 983), we found little support for all three of these models. Instead, we found that atypical sexual interests, alone, best explained ECWC, with a moderate relationship to ECWC. Using the predictors associated with each of the three models of ECWC, we identified three classes of men with a history of SOC who are high in ECWC using latent class analyses (n = 377). These three classes generally did not replicate the three models of ECWC. We instead propose three subgroups of men with histories of SOC who are high in ECWC, characterized respectively by: relationship deficits; youth and loneliness; and high sexual and general criminality. High levels of ECWC are predictive of a higher risk of sexual recidivism, regardless of class association; however, these subgroups are differentially at risk for some types of recidivism. Our findings suggest that ECWC is a multi-faceted construct, which is still not well understood.

Optimal threshold for static 99R

The Static 99R is an actuarial instrument that is widely used to assess the sexual recidivism risk of sex offenders. It is frequently applied in jurisdictions as a decision-making tool for release or indefinite admission to a psychiatric hospital within the jail of sex offenders. The decision to release or retain a criminal depends solely on the total score which is considered as the only independent variable. In our study, two models of Static 99R are considered: the 5-year high risk model and the 10-year high risk model. To identify the most appropriate threshold, we performed four independent methods. These are: the point closest-to-(0,1), the concordance probability (CZ), the index of union (IU), and the plot of sensitivity versus specificity. Remarkably, all four methods yielded identical results. For the 5-year high risk model, the optimal threshold is 0.184, which corresponds to a cut-off score of 5. Consequently, a score of 5 or higher implies that the offender is very likely to recidivate. Similarly, for the 10-year high risk, the optimal threshold is 0.293 which corresponds also to a cut-off score of 5.

Protective factors in the prediction of criminal outcomes for youth with sexual offenses using tools developed for adults and adolescents: Tests of direct effects and moderation of risk.

Interest in protective factors in risk assessment work with adjudicated populations is increasing and evidence suggests that protective factors in structured professional judgment (SPJ) tools predict the absence of one or more types of recidivism with some evidence also of incremental validity in recidivism-desistance prediction models with risk scales. But, there is little evidence of interactions, demonstrated using formal tests of moderation, between scores on risk- and protective factor-focused applied assessment tools, despite the documentation of interactive protective effects with nonadjudicated populations. In this study, with 273 justice-involved male youth and a fixed 3-year follow-up, direct effects of medium size were found for sexual recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any new offense with totals for tools developed for adult offending populations (modified versions of the actuarial risk-focused Static-99 and the SPJ protective factor-focused Structured Assessment of PROtective Factor [SAPROF]) and tools developed for adolescent offending populations (the actuarial risk-focused Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II [JSORRAT-II] and the SPJ protective factor-focused DASH-13). As well, incremental validity and interactive protective effects, in the small-to-medium size range, were found for the prediction of violent (including sexual) recidivism using various combinations of these tools. The value-added information provided by strengths-focused tools indicated by these findings suggest their inclusion in comprehensive risk assessments in applied practice has promise for improving prediction and also intervention and management planning with justice-involved youth. The findings also highlight the need for further research on developmental considerations and practical questions about how to integrate strengths with risks to inform such work empirically. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamic Risk Scales Degrade Over Time: Evidence for Reassessments.

Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive accuracy decreases over time for the ACUTE-2007 and the STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools. We used two independent samples of men on community supervision (NStudy 1 = 795; NStudy 2 = 4,221). For all outcomes (sexual, violent, and any recidivism [including technical violations]), reassessments improved predictive accuracy, with the largest effects found for the most recent assessment (i.e., those closest in time prior to the recidivism event). Based on these results, we recommend that ACUTE-2007 assessments occur at least every 30 days and that the STABLE-2007 assessments occur every 6 months or after significant life changes (e.g., successful completion of treatment).

Family Attachment, Sexuality, and Sexual Recidivism in a Sample of Italian Sexual Offenders: Preliminary Results.

The research aims to investigate family communication regarding sexuality and the possible link between insecure attachment, violence in relationships, and the tendency toward sexual sensation-seeking in a sample of Italian sexual offenders. We evaluated 29 male sexual offenders in two correctional facilities of Southern Lazio (Italy) (mean age = 40.76; SD = 11.16). The participants completed general questions about their family and sexual education and fulfilled the following questionnaires: Compulsive Sexual Behavior Inventory (CSBI), Sexual Sensation-seeking Scale (SSSS), and the High-Risk Situation Checklist, adapted in Italian, as well as the Attachment Style Questionnaire (ASQ), validated in Italian. Most of the participants had never talked about sex within their family and perceived a severe or abusive education during childhood. In addition, positive correlations emerged between SSSS and the two scales of the CSBI, as well as between insecure attachment style, CSBI, and sexual sensation-seeking. The participants also reported some critical issues regarding the personal perception of high-risk situations linked to sexual relapse. The data suggest factors to investigate, such as family education and relationships and the personal perception of sexual recidivism. The results might be effective in treatment and prevention programs among sex offenders.

Outcome Evaluation of a Treatment Program for Men with Paraphilic Disorders Convicted of Sexual Offenses: 10-Year Community Follow-up.

Evidence concerning specific paraphilia treatment effectiveness is limited. We present observation data of 127 men convicted of paraphilic sexual offenses who attended inpatient and outpatient follow-up treatment in Czechia. We collected participants' sociodemographic and treatment-related information, including STATIC-99R scores, and used proportional hazards models to analyze variables' effect on recidivism risk. Within the observation period, the general recidivism and sexual recidivism rates were 33.1% and 16.5%, respectively, and the sexual contact recidivism rate was 4.7%. The total STATIC-99 score for those who re-offended was 5.65 (SD = 2.11) and for those who did not was 3.98 (SD = 2.02). Recidivism risk was 7.52 times higher for those diagnosed with exhibitionism than with pedophilia, sadomasochism, or antisocial personality disorder. General recidivism is comparable to others' findings. We attribute the lower sexual contact recidivism rate to the combined effects of psychological and pharmacological treatment, and higher numbers of non-contact offenses to limited antidepressant use.

The Risk, Need, and Responsivity Relevance of Working Alliance in a Sexual Offense Treatment Program: Its Intersection With Psychopathy, Diversity, and Treatment Change.

The current study examined the self-reported working alliance of men attending a high intensity sexual offense treatment program and its associations with psychopathy, sexual violence risk, treatment change, and recidivism, in a Canadian sample of 317 incarcerated men followed up an average of approximately 10 years post release. Working Alliance Inventory (WAI; Horvath & Greenberg, 1989) self-reported total, Task, Bond, and Goal scores were positively correlated with treatment related changes in risk, and inversely associated with Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 1991; Wang & Hare, 2003) scores. The Affective facet of the PCL-R, representing the callous-unemotional features of the syndrome, uniquely predicted lower Bond and Goal scores controlling for the other facets. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that sexual violence risk predicted increased sexual recidivism while change predicted decreased sexual recidivism controlling for PCL-R total score; however, WAI scores (particularly the Goal component) were also unexpectedly associated with increased sexual recidivism. For violent recidivism, psychopathy, risk, and change incremented the prediction of general violence, while the WAI was not significantly associated with this outcome. A set of parallel analyses, stratified by Indigenous ethnocultural heritage, demonstrated some continuity, but also potential areas of difference, in substantive findings. Risk, need, responsivity implications of the working alliance for the treatment of high psychopathy correctional clientele, and how this may intersect with Indigenous heritage, are discussed.

Sexual Misconduct: What Does a 20-Year Review of Cases in Quebec Reveal about the Characteristics of Professionals, Victims, and the Disciplinary Process?

While there is a considerable body of literature on sexual aggression, we know much less about the violation of sexual boundaries within professional relationships. To address this knowledge gap, the characteristics of cases of sexual misconduct in the province of Quebec were extracted, based on a search of published disciplinary decisions between 1998 and 2020, using the legal databases CANLII and SOQUIJ. The search yielded 296 decisions including 249 male and 47 female members from 22 professional orders, and involving 470 victims. Results indicate that male professionals approaching mid-career accounted for a greater proportion of cases of sexual misconduct. Moreover, physical and mental health professionals were overrepresented in cases, as were female adult victims. Acts of sexual misconduct concerned mostly sexual touching and intercourse and occurred during consultations. Female professionals were more inclined to establish romantic and sexual relationships with clients than their male counterparts. Of the 92.0% of professionals found guilty of at least one count of sexual misconduct, two thirds eventually returned to practice. Following the guilty verdict, few faced rehabilitative measures. Recommendations are provided for the prevention of sexual recidivism and the accompaniment of victims of sexual misconduct throughout the disciplinary process.

Machine Learning and Risk Assessment: Random Forest Does Not Outperform Logistic Regression in the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

Although many studies supported the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) because they outperformed unstructured judgments, it remains an ongoing challenge to seek potentials for improvement of their predictive performance. Machine learning (ML) algorithms, like random forests, are able to detect patterns in data useful for prediction purposes without explicitly programming them (e.g., by considering nonlinear effects between risk factors and the criterion). Therefore, the current study aims to compare conventional logistic regression analyses with the random forest algorithm on a sample of N = 511 adult male individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design and participants were followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. The Static-99, containing static risk factors, and the Stable-2007, containing stable dynamic risk factors, were included as predictors. The results demonstrated no superior predictive performance of the random forest compared with logistic regression; furthermore, methods of interpretable ML did not point to any robust nonlinear effects. Altogether, results supported the statistical use of logistic regression for the development and clinical application of ARAIs.