Abstract
The Static 99R is an actuarial instrument that is widely used to assess the sexual recidivism risk of sex offenders. It is frequently applied in jurisdictions as a decision-making tool for release or indefinite admission to a psychiatric hospital within the jail of sex offenders. The decision to release or retain a criminal depends solely on the total score which is considered as the only independent variable. In our study, two models of Static 99R are considered: the 5-year high risk model and the 10-year high risk model. To identify the most appropriate threshold, we performed four independent methods. These are: the point closest-to-(0,1), the concordance probability (CZ), the index of union (IU), and the plot of sensitivity versus specificity. Remarkably, all four methods yielded identical results. For the 5-year high risk model, the optimal threshold is 0.184, which corresponds to a cut-off score of 5. Consequently, a score of 5 or higher implies that the offender is very likely to recidivate. Similarly, for the 10-year high risk, the optimal threshold is 0.293 which corresponds also to a cut-off score of 5.
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