Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide Research Articles

Long-Term Predictive Validity of the Risk Matrix 2000

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive accuracy of the Risk Matrix 2000 on an independent sample of 351 sexual offenders, followed in the community for an average duration of 11.4 years (range 0-20 years, SD = 4.4 years). For comparison purposes, this study also examines the predictive accuracy of two other risk assessment instruments, specifically modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). Results indicate that the Risk Matrix 2000 demonstrates convergent validity by correlating with the other risk assessment instruments. Moreover, the Risk Matrix 2000 is predictive of recidivism above chance levels, exhibiting medium to large effect sizes, although in general, the other two instruments, particularly the SORAG, are superior. Results also indicate differences in predictive validity when comparing 2-year, 5-year, and variable follow-up periods. Finally, a cumulative meta-analysis compares and integrates current findings with those obtained from the accumulation of previous studies, and new cumulative estimates are provided.

Évaluation du risque de récidive en Belgique francophone : données préliminaires d’analyse factorielle de la « Sex Offender Recidivism Appraisal Guide » (SORAG) et de la Statique-99

In order to assess the internal structure of risk assessment of sexual recidivism of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the STATIC-99, a principal components analysis followed by promax rotation was conducted. In a data set including adults forensic sex offenders, three interpretable components were identified both with the SORAG ( n = 79) and the STATIC-99 ( n = 254): “past criminal behaviour”, “demographic characteristics”, and “antisocial personality” for the SORAG and “criminal past behaviour”, “aggressor-victim relationship” and “sexual offence” for the STATIC-99. Prospective data were available (SORAG: n = 133; STATIC-99: n = 137). For both instruments, the “criminal past behaviour” factor was the only one predicting general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism.

Predicting Recidivism in Sex Offenders Using the VRAG and SORAG: The Contribution of Age-at-Release

Sex offenders (N = 468) were released from custody and recidivism outcome recorded. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) were scored for each offender. Results indicated that, for the majority of actuarial items contained in the VRAG and SORAG and for VRAG and SORAG bin scores, offenders with lower actuarial scores were released from custody at a significantly older age. Actuarial scores were regressed on age-at-release and residuals saved as age-corrected actuarial scores. Using ROC analysis, predictive accuracy was evaluated comparing original actuarial scores with age-corrected scores. For most item scores and both bin scores, the ability to predict recidivism was significantly reduced after the effects of age-at-release had been removed.

Actuarial Assessment of Risk for Reoffense Among Adult Sex Offenders

This study extended previous research comparing a set of widely employed actuarial risk assessment schemes as well as a new instrument, the Static-2002, in a sample of 468 sex offenders followed for an average of 5.9 years. All of the risk assessment instruments (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism [RRASOR], Static-99, Static-2002, and Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised [MnSOST-R]) were found to predict the recidivism outcomes for which they were designed. Although significant, indices of accuracy were generally lower than those reported by the developers of these instruments, even under conditions that have been shown to optimize predictive performance. For serious recidivism, the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and SORAG was significantly superior to that of the RRASOR, and the SORAG was significantly superior to the MnSOST-R as well. There were no significant differences among instruments in accuracy of predicting sexual recidivism.

The Factor Structure of Static Actuarial Items: Its Relation to Prediction

Principal components analysis was conducted on items contained in actuarial instruments used with adult sex offenders, including: the Rapid Assessment of Sex Offender Risk for Recidivism (RASORR), the Static-99, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). In a data set that included child molesters and rapists (N = 311), six interpretable components were identified: Antisocial Behavior, Child Sexual Abuse, Persistence, Detached Predatory Behavior, Young and Single, and Male Victim(s). The RRASOR was highly correlated with Persistence, and the VRAG and SORAG were highly correlated with Antisocial Behavior. Antisocial Behavior was a significant predictor of violent recidivism, while Persistence and Child Sexual Abuse were significant predictors of sexual recidivism.

The Factor Structure of Static Actuarial Items: Its Relation to Prediction

Principal components analysis was conducted on items contained in actuarial instruments used with adult sex offenders, including: the Rapid Assessment of Sex Offender Risk for Recidivism (RASORR), the Static-99, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). In a data set that included child molesters and rapists (N = 311), six interpretable components were identified: Antisocial Behavior, Child Sexual Abuse, Persistence, Detached Predatory Behavior, Young and Single, and Male Victim(s). The RRASOR was highly correlated with Persistence, and the VRAG and SORAG were highly correlated with Antisocial Behavior. Antisocial Behavior was a significant predictor of violent recidivism, while Persistence and Child Sexual Abuse were significant predictors of sexual recidivism.

An Actuarial Study of Recidivism Risk Among Sex Killers of Adults and Children: Could We Have Identified Them Before It Was too Late?

ABSTRACT Two actuarial instruments, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), were examined for their utility in predicting sexual homicide and attempted homicide, based on information that would have been available prior to the actual sex killings or attempted killings. The study measured risk in a sample of thirty-eight men who had critically injured or killed the victims of their sexual assaults. The two instruments were superior to clinical judgment, but, at best, only 32% of the sex killers would have been considered a high risk for future violent offending prior to committing or attempting the homicides. Specific problems for using such actuarial instruments with sex killers are discussed with suggestions for improving prediction.

Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 on Belgian Sex Offenders Committed to a Forensic Facility

This study evaluated the convergent and predictive validity of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. A. Cormier, 1998) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999, 2000) among 147 male sex offenders committed to a high-security hospital in Belgium (Centre de Défense Sociale "Les Marronniers"). Of the sample, 63.8% were child abusers (victims under 14 years of age), 24.6% were rapists (victims aged 14 years or more), and 11.5% were mixed-victim offenders (victims less than 14 years of age and victims aged 14 years or more). After an average follow-up period of 4.2 years (SD = 3.4 years), the sexual recidivism rate was 25.2%, the violent recidivism rate was 17.1%, and the general (any) recidivism rate was 33.1%. The SORAG and the Static-99 were moderately correlated with each other (r = .55), and both showed strong predictive validity for general and violent recidivism (ROC AUC's ranging from .68 to .72 for the total sample). Both instruments showed moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism (AUC of .64 for SORAG and .66 for Static-99).

Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 on Belgian Sex Offenders Committed to a Forensic Facility

This study evaluated the convergent and predictive validity of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG; V L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. A. Cormier, 1998) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999, 2000) among 147 male sex offenders committed to a high-security hospital in Belgium (Centre de Défense Sociale "Les Marronniers"). Of the sample, 63.8% were child abusers (victims under 14 years of age), 24.6% were rapists (victims aged 14 years or more), and 11.5% were mixed-victim offenders (victims less than 14 years of age and victims aged 14 years or more). After an average follow-up period of 4.2 years (SD = 3.4 years), the sexual recidivism rate was 25.2%, the violent recidivism rate was 17.1 %, and the general (any) recidivism rate was 33.1 %. The SORAG and the Static-99 were moderately correlated with each other (r = .55), and both showed strong predictive validity for general and violent recidivism (ROC AUC's ranging from .68 to .72 for the total sample). Both instruments showed moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism (AUC of .64 for SORAG and .66 for Static-99).

Is More Better? Combining Actuarial Risk Scales to Predict Recidivism Among Adult Sex Offenders.

The present study was conducted to determine whether combining the results of multiple actuarial risk scales increases accuracy in predicting sex offender recidivism. Multiple methods of combining 4 validated actuarial risk scales--the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, and the Static-99--were evaluated in a sample of 215 adult male sex offenders. These included the intuitively appealing believe-the-negative and believe-the-positive rules, adapted from medical decision making; the combination of absolute decision thresholds across a range of cutoff scores; and the statistical optimization methods of logistic regression and principal components analyses. No combination method provided a statistically significant or consistent advantage over the predictive accuracy of the single best actuarial scale.

Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: is a special explanation required?

Child molesters who target their own children have been described as low risk and not pedophilic. Men who had molested a daughter or stepdaughter (n = 82) were compared to 102 molesters whose only female victims were extrafamilial. Men who offended against their own daughters had less deviant sexual age preferences and were less likely to commit new violent and sexual offenses. However, the father-daughter molesters exhibited an average absolute phallometric preference for prepubertal children and had a violent recidivism rate of 22% in a follow-up of less than 5 years. Actuarial risk assessment instruments (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, and C. A. Cormier, 1998) worked as well for intrafamilial child molesters as for other sex offenders.

Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: is a special explanation required?

Child molesters who target their own children have been described as low risk and not pedophilic. Men who had molested a daughter or stepdaughter (n = 82) were compared to 102 molesters whose only female victims were extrafamilial. Men who offended against their own daughters had less deviant sexual age preferences and were less likely to commit new violent and sexual offenses. However, the father-daughter molesters exhibited an average absolute phallometric preference for prepubertal children and had a violent recidivism rate of 22% in a follow-up of less than 5 years. Actuarial risk assessment instruments (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, and C. A. Cormier, 1998) worked as well for intrafamilial child molesters as for other sex offenders.

Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Six Risk Assessment Instruments for Adult Sex Offenders

Five actuarial instruments and one guided clinical instrument designed to assess risk for recidivism were compared on 215 sex offenders released from prison for an average of 4.5 years. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Offense Recidivism, and Static-99 predicted general recidivism, serious (violent and sexual) recidivism, and sexual recidivism. The Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised and a guided clinical assessment (Multifactorial Assessment of Sex Offender Risk for Recidivism) predicted general recidivism but did not significantly predict serious or sexual recidivism. On its own, the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised predicted general and serious recidivism but not sexual recidivism. The results support the utility of an actuarial approach to risk assessment of sex offenders.