Abstract
ABSTRACT Two actuarial instruments, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), were examined for their utility in predicting sexual homicide and attempted homicide, based on information that would have been available prior to the actual sex killings or attempted killings. The study measured risk in a sample of thirty-eight men who had critically injured or killed the victims of their sexual assaults. The two instruments were superior to clinical judgment, but, at best, only 32% of the sex killers would have been considered a high risk for future violent offending prior to committing or attempting the homicides. Specific problems for using such actuarial instruments with sex killers are discussed with suggestions for improving prediction.
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