Severe Climate Research Articles

Small States, Big Impact: A Review of Rising Greenhouse Gases Emission from the Energy Sector in India

Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are a prime concern that needs our attention, not only in megapolitan states but also in developing small states. The increase in GHGs-emission could lead to severe climate change scenarios and global warming. In India, it is measured that the energy sector (68.7%) accounts for a significant GHGs-emission, followed by agriculture (19.6%), industry (6.0%), land use change and forestry (3.8%), and waste sector (1.9%). This article aims to investigate temporal changes and trends in greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions in the energy sector of India. We have used GHGs-emission as Carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent and compared the top per capita emitting states versus their total emissions and vice versa. Most of this increase has occurred in small states, where urbanisation, population growth, and economic expansion have been significant factors. Odisha and Maharashtra were listed as top-emitting states releasing more than 240 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), mainly through industrial energy and electricity-related emissions, respectively, followed by Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal. In contrast, Chhattisgarh was recorded as the top per-capita emitting state, followed by Odisha. Among all the states studied, Lakshadweep has shown a significant trend in GHGs per capita reduction, while the other shows an increasing trend due to a lack of robust and effective legislation. This review will help to seek the attention of policymakers and the government towards the increasing emissions from the small states which are emerging in day to day life.

Multidisciplinary hydrogeochemical and isotopic assessment of the Pordenone Plain (Northeastern Italy) for water resources sustainability

This study aims to comprehensively characterize the hydro-geochemical and isotopic features of the complex groundwater system in the Pordenone Plain (northeastern Italy). The area is an important industrial and agricultural area exposed to severe anthropogenic pressure and climate change, which put its water resources at risk in terms of quantity and quality, making it of high scientific and social interest. The hydrogeological setting of the Pordenone Plain has been previously simplified as a phreatic continuous aquifer in the High Plain that changes into a multilayered aquifer system towards the Low Plain. However, this study reveals significant lithological and structural heterogeneities in the High Plain that exert a strong influence on its subsurface hydrodynamics. All waters exhibit a Ca(Mg)–HCO3 composition with relatively high Na–K values in the aquifers of the Low Plain likely related to cation exchange processes. Water stable isotopes (δ2H–H2O and δ18O–H2O) indicate that the deep aquifers in the Low Plain are confined by impermeable geological formations, such as clays and siltstones, which entirely restrict water mixing with shallower aquifers. Concurrently, tritium analysis provides evidence of slow recharge and flow rate. Three primary groundwater flows have been identified within the plain, as follows: 1) a surface flow that affects the unconfined or semi-confined aquifers of the High Plain hosted in gravelly sediments; 2) an intermediate flow fed by the pedemontane zone, which includes unconfined deep aquifers of the High Plain, semi-confined/shallow aquifers (at a depth of 40–50 m) located near the resurgence belt area and karst springs located in eastern pedemontane of the Cansiglio Plateau; 3) a deep flow fed by the mountainous zone that affects the deep confined aquifers of the Low Plain. A reliable hydrogeochemical conceptual model has been developed to explain the compositional variability of the studied waters, providing valuable insights for the sustainable management of groundwater resources in the Pordenone Plain.

Impact of temperatures on grassland transfer strategy: Evidence from the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in China

The increasing severity and complexity climate change present significant challenges to agricultural and social activities. This study investigates the effects of extreme temperatures on grassland transfer strategies, utilizing micro-level survey datasets obtained from pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, which are then matched with weather data. Employing the piecewise linear method and the temperature bins approach, the results reveal that extreme high temperature weather has a positive and significant effect on grassland transfer decisions. Specifically, each additional day of high-temperature weather throughout the year increases the overall probability of grassland transfer by 0.52%. Additionally, the analysis reveals a U-shaped relationship between temperature and grassland transfer-in decision, with the turning point occurring in the of 5–8 °C range. Furthermore, the findings indicate that grassland transfer decisions are predominantly influenced by moderating effects of factors such as the grassland quality and non-pastoral income. Moreover, herder households characterized by high income levels and younger demographics exhibit a notable capability in rapidly applying adaptive strategies to cope with temperature variations. Projections for future climate change scenarios indicate that extreme temperatures will significantly negatively impact grassland transfer-out, while positively influencing transfer-in.

Hydrothermal synthesis of melamine-based porous organic polymer for the advanced adsorption of iodine

The release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels to produce energy contributes to severe climate change. Transitioning from fossil fuels to nuclear energy, which is free of carbon emissions, presents its own set of challenges, particularly the potential release of radioactive iodine in handling nuclear waste and in the instance of a nuclear accident. The ongoing research aimed to harness the advantages of porous organic polymers to capture iodine generated during nuclear fission by synthesizing them in an environmentally friendly and cost-effective hydrothermal process. Herein, a melamine-based porous organic polymer (MPOP-4), possessing reliable thermal and chemical stability, highly porous (SABET=195.48 m2/g), designed for iodine capture, is reported. The synthesis of MPOP-4 using melamine and uracil as basic building blocks showed high iodine vapor capture capacities in various media (6.30 g/g at 80 °C, 4833.15 mg/g from aqueous solution, and 1.98 g/g at 25 °C), accompanied by good regeneration ability. A significant abundance of nitrogen content, conjugated π-electron arrangement, and porous network make it an efficient iodine adsorbent. This study suggests the green nature (metal-free) of MPOP-4 and its ability to adsorb iodine.

Research on the Impact of BYD Group’s Green Innovation on Corporate Financial Performance under the Background of “Dual Carbon”

With the increasingly severe global climate change problem, the “dual carbon” goals (peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality) have become a common focus of international attention. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly emphasizes the need to accelerate the green transformation of development models, implement comprehensive strategies for frugal development, support the growth of green and low-carbon industries, and promote the concept of green consumption. At the same time, “Made in China 2025” also elaborates on the strategic concept of innovation-driven and green development centered, and strives for breakthroughs in key industries such as new energy vehicles. In such a macro environment, adopting green innovation measures by enterprises not only contributes to ecological protection but also has an undeniable impact on their economic performance and overall value. This article takes BYD Group as a case study to explore in detail the positive effects of green innovation on its economic performance. We first systematically organized and analyzed BYD’s specific practices in green innovation; Then, by examining three key financial indicators, BYD’s current financial situation was analyzed in depth; On this basis, combined with research data, the positive impact of green innovation on BYD’s financial performance was revealed; Finally, based on the analysis results, relevant suggestions are proposed to provide reference for the sustainable development of enterprises in the context of “dual carbon.”

Riesgo climático en los servicios de Salud Local en Ecuador

This work analyzes the interaction between climate risk, caused by extreme events resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and/or Climate Change, and its impact on local health services in Ecuador. The analysis focuses on Ecuador’s growing vulnerability to the effects of climate change, which exacerbates challenges in the delivery of health services, particularly in the context of severe climate events. The main objective is to analyze the relationship between the number of hectares affected by climate events and the availability and effectiveness of local health services, considering community resilience and health coverage as moderating variables. The methodology uses a linear regression analysis using data from 221 Ecuadorian municipalities, covering variables such as climate risk, health services, community resilience, health coverage, and demographic and socioeconomic factors. The results indicate a significant influence of climate risk on the effectiveness of health services, moderated by community resilience and health coverage. It is observed that areas with greater preparation and health coverage show a better capacity to respond to extreme weather events. Finally, it is important to integrate climate risk management into health services planning, suggesting that greater community resilience and broad health coverage are essential to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on public health.

Groundwater geochemical modeling under severe climate conditions for sustainable agricultural development, the case of Chougafiya Basin, central Tunisia

ABSTRACT Monitoring groundwater quality (GWQ) is vital for water sustainability, mainly in arid to semi-arid regions with intense agriculture and inadequate irrigation management systems. It was, closely, linked to groundwater hydrochemistry (GWH). The present work aims to identify factors controlling this in the Chougafiya shallow aquifer (Central Tunisia), which is known for groundwater hypersalinization and intensive agricultural activities under severe climate conditions. Based on 30 inventoried wells data, the proposed approach combines (i) exploratory factor analysis and (ii) confirmatory factor analysis as a structural equation model (SEM) to detect the most relevant factors involved in GWH and their spatial variability. It has been demonstrated that GWH was governed by Na–Cl and Ca-SO4 type, resulting from evaporated minerals. The results showed a total explained variance of 86% and allowed the identification of two main factors that control groundwater salinization: (1) the natural factor, mainly, attributed to the water–rock interactions and (2) the anthropogenic factor, mainly related to anarchic farming practices. As a confirmatory analysis, the development of SEM led to the identification of the most important factors that control water mineralization. These results could be helpful for the strategic plans for water resources management in the studied area.

Research on Pricing Strategy of new Energy Vehicle Market

With the increasingly severe global climate change and environmental problems, new energy vehicles, as an important choice for green travel, have received widespread attention. However, the pricing strategy of the new energy vehicle market has been one of the important challenges facing automakers. Especially in China, as the world's largest automobile market, the pricing strategy of new energy vehicles not only affects the profits of enterprises, but also directly relates to the purchasing decisions of consumers. Taking BYD Auto as an example, as a leader in China's new energy vehicle industry, its pricing strategy has important reference significance for the entire industry. Through literature review, interview and investigation, and content analysis, this paper analyzes and studies the current situation of BYD automobile in terms of pricing strategy, and combines the current situation of China's new energy automobile industry to find out existing problems and propose corresponding optimization measures to improve the performance of new energy automobile enterprises. After in-depth research and analysis, this study draws the following conclusions: BYD Auto's existing pricing strategy has taken into account consumer psychology and market competition environment to a certain extent, but there are still some problems. Therefore, BYD Auto should flexibly adjust its pricing strategy according to changes in the market environment and consumer demand, strengthen communication and interaction with consumers, and improve brand awareness and loyalty. This study provides useful reference and enlightenment for BYD Auto and other new energy vehicle manufacturers, and helps enterprises to formulate more scientific and reasonable pricing strategies to achieve sustainable development.

Addressing the Urgent Need for Direct Climate Cooling: Rationale and Options

Abstract Emissions reduction and removal are not proceeding at a pace that will limit global average warming to less than the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C. Accelerating global warming is indicated by record high 2023-24 monthly temperatures and annual 2023 global mean surface temperatures around 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Only direct climate cooling has the potential to avert continued temperature rise in the near term and moderate at least some projected climate change disruption including extreme weather, sea level rise, loss of sea ice, glacier and permafrost melting, and coral reef die-off. Strategically deployed at scale, starting in the near term, several cooling measures have the potential to reduce or reverse global warming. Others can exert local or regional cooling influences. The world needs an approach to climate change that extends beyond sole reliance on emission reductions and removal. We propose a) researching, field testing and deploying one or more large-scale cooling influence(s) perhaps initially in polar regions and applying local and regional cooling measures that also support adaptation, b) accelerating emissions reductions with an early prioritization of short-lived climate drivers, and c) deploying large scale carbon removal to draw down legacy greenhouse gas. The authors make no attempt to determine what measures or mix of measures is optimal. That will depend on modeling and experimentation. Only by including properly researched emergency cooling “tourniquets,” in the near-term to our “bleeding” Earth can we slow and then reverse ongoing and increasingly severe climate change in the 21st Century.

Airborne pollen seasonality of Kars province, a high-altitude region in NE Anatolia-Turkey

Aeropalynological studies quantify pollen present in the atmosphere and elucidate their seasonal variations and regional distribution. Utilizing a Hirst-type volumetric 7-day pollen and spore trap during 2012 and 2013, we conducted an aerobiological investigation in Kars province, Turkey, a region characterized by high altitude and severe climate. Across the 2-year study period, an average annual pollen concentration of 14,931 pollen/m3 was recorded, with 39 taxa identified, including 29.31% woody taxa, 70.58% herbaceous, and 0.11% unidentified. The seven most dominant taxa were Poaceae, Pinaceae, Artemisia, Amaranthaceae, Urticaceae, Quercus, and Cupressaceae/Taxaceae. The data indicated a significant risk period for individuals with pollen allergies from June to July. Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the correlation between the daily pollen concentrations of the dominant pollen types and the variables. The results demonstrated that an increase in temperature was positively correlated with higher pollen counts, whereas increased average relative humidity was associated with reduced pollen concentrations. Notably, herbaceous pollen taxa were more prevalent in Kars. Additionally, the main pollen season starts approximately 6 weeks later than that at lower altitudes. These findings underscore the importance of localized aerobiological monitoring for effective public health responses to pollen allergies.

The influence of digital intelligence transformation on carbon emission reduction in manufacturing firms

Severe global climate change has resulted in the focus of social attention shifting to the manufacturing industry's low-carbon transformation. Digital intelligent transformation (DIT) in enterprises is identified as a crucial driver in mitigating carbon emissions. An estimation of DIT's impact on manufacturing industries' carbon emission intensity (CEI) and its underlying mechanisms was conducted using data from Chinese A-share listed companies. Research findings indicate that DIT significantly reduces corporate CEI. Robustness tests, such as the instrumental variable method and variable substitution method, confirm this conclusion. By enhancing labor productivity and accelerating capital renewal, DIT indirectly lowers CEI. Furthermore, non-state-owned enterprises with superior market competitiveness have been observed to be markedly adept at harnessing DIT for CEI. The heterogeneity test found that DIT has a considerably significant effect on reducing CEI in enterprises that are not low-carbon pilots, non-broadband pilots, smart pilots, non-provincial capitals, and eastern cities. This study provides new evidence supporting the promotion of enterprise DIT for achieving green development, offering insights for corporate policy making.

Mitigating heat-induced yield loss in peanut: Insights into 24-epibrassinolide-mediated improvement in antioxidant capacity, photosynthesis, and kernel weight

Context or problemAs global temperatures steadily increase, the frequent occurrence of extreme high-temperature events has significantly hampered peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) production in low-latitude regions. Objective or research questionPreviously, 24-epibrassinolide (EBR) was identified as a substance capable of mitigating abiotic stress damage in plants. However, it remains unclear whether and by what mechanisms EBR can diminish the yield loss caused by heat stress in peanuts. MethodsDuring the flowering phase, two distinct peanut cultivars, Qinghua7 (heat-resistant type) and Shanhua101 (heat-sensitive type) were exposed to a 10-day heat stress treatment (+4.2 ℃). EBR or water was sprayed on the 1st, 3rd, and 5th days of heating, and water-sprayed natural peanuts was used as control, to assess the effect of EBR on antioxidant capacity, photosynthetic performance, and yield in heat-stressed peanuts. ResultsEBR application increased activities of superoxide dismutase, peroxidase, catalase, and ascorbate peroxidase in heat-stressed peanut leaves. Simultaneously, EBR decreased hydrogen peroxide and superoxide anion production, along with a reduction in malondialdehyde content. Additionally, EBR notably alleviated the oxidation damage to chloroplast membranes and grana lamella under heat stress. Thus, an increase in maximum photochemical efficiency, comprehensive performance index, rubisco activity, net photosynthetic rate, and biomass accumulation was observed in heat-stress peanuts. Synergistic enhancement provided by EBR on antioxidant capacity and photosynthetic performance resulted in improved plant growth, kernel weight, and effective pods per plant, led to a reduction in yield loss for heat-stressed cultivars Qinghua7 and Shanhua101 by 26.92 % and 55.18 %, respectively. ConclusionsThe application of EBR enhanced the antioxidant capacity of peanut leaves. This, in turn, mitigated oxidative damage to chloroplast membranes, resulting in improved photosynthetic performance. Ultimately, this intervention led to a reduction in yield loss for heat-stressed peanuts, achieved through an increase in kernel weight. Implications or significanceThe foliar spraying of EBR holds significant promise in crop production, offering a broad application prospect. This practice is beneficial for enhancing the heat resistance of peanuts and potentially other field crops, equipping them to better withstand the increasingly severe climate challenges anticipated in the future.

Advancements and Policy Implications of Green Hydrogen Production from Renewable Sources

With the increasingly severe climate change situation and the trend of green energy transformation, the development and utilization of hydrogen energy has attracted extensive attention from government, industry, and academia in the past few decades. Renewable energy electrolysis stands out as one of the most promising hydrogen production routes, enabling the storage of intermittent renewable energy power generation and supplying green fuel to various sectors. This article reviews the evolution and development of green hydrogen policies in the United States, the European Union, Japan, and China, and then summarizes the key technological progress of renewable energy electrolysis while introducing the progress of hydrogen production from wind and photovoltaic power generation. Furthermore, the environmental, social, and economic benefits of different hydrogen production routes are analyzed and compared. Finally, it provides a prospective analysis of the potential impact of renewable energy electrolysis on the global energy landscape and outlines key areas for future research and development.

Climate-adaptive fire smoke ventilation strategies for atrium-type metro stations: A NSGA-II multi-objective optimisation study

This study explores the impact of climate variability on the operation of sustainable ventilation systems in urban infrastructure, with a focus on smoke movement in metro stations under varied external climatic conditions. Smoke characteristics and ventilation strategies in an atrium-type metro station are investigated using numerical simulations. The simulations reveal the influence of external climate on smoke movement through the atrium and roof windows, with particular attention to outdoor temperature and wind velocity. The study designs different ventilation strategies for smoke control that incorporate meteorological data, evaluating smoke visibility, CO distribution, and smoke extraction efficiency. The findings indicate that under severe external climates of low temperatures and high wind velocities, smoke extraction from roof window outlets is challenging. The adverse effects of external climate decrease the natural smoke extraction efficiency, increase the CO concentration, and reduce the safe visibility area. However, improved ventilation measures, such as the platform make-up air system and roof mechanical extraction system, can significantly enhance smoke control performance and facilitate safe evacuation. The study also employs the NSGA-II multi-objective optimisation method to obtain optimal ventilation strategies for different climates, balancing three optimisation objectives of operating energy consumption, safe visibility area, and smoke extraction efficiency. The outcomes show that the recommended values of Vp are 20%–30 % (0 °C ≤ To≤40 °C) and 40 % (−40 °C ≤ To<0 °C), vr are 0.3 (10 °C ≤ To≤40 °C) and 0.4 (−40 °C ≤ To < −10 °C), and Vc are all lower than 4 %. As wind velocity increases, the recommended values need to be enhanced. This research contributes to sustainable urban development by offering a framework for managing public safety and energy efficiency in the context of climate variability.

Impact of the Development of the Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions --Panel Data Analysis Based on Prefecture-Level Cities in Guangdong Province

With the increasingly severe global climate change problem, low-carbon development has become the consensus of the international community. Based on the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province, China, from 2011 to 2021, this paper analyses in depth the relationship between digital economy and carbon emissions, and explores the impact of digital economy development on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism. The study finds that: first, the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions is heterogeneous in different regions, with a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and carbon emission levels in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and the eastern part of Guangdong, while the relationship in the northern part of Guangdong and the western part of Guangdong, which are still in the construction stage of the digital economy, is not significant; second, in the early stage of the development of the digital economy, the maturity of its characteristics will lead to the high inputs and high costs in the process of digital transformation which in turn raises the level of carbon emissions in production and life; third, as the digital economy continues to mature, the early capital, human and technological inputs gradually show a positive net effect, significantly reducing the level of carbon emissions through improved energy use efficiency and optimisation and upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the above findings, the following recommendations are put forward: first, formulate a digital economy emission reduction strategy; second, optimize the construction of digital infrastructure; third, promote the upgrading of industrial structure; fourth, strengthen green technological innovation; fifth, improve the policy incentive mechanism; and sixth, strengthen the coordinated development of the region.

Climate risk adaptation through livestock insurance: evidence from a pilot programme in Nigeria

ABSTRACT This study investigates the option of choosing index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) to mitigate the adverse effects associated with climate change in Kwara State, Nigeria. Previous studies indicate that the failure to include farmers during the early stage of pilot programme design is a major factor in Africa’s poor participation rate in index insurance. We conducted a survey with 392 farming households across eight of the state's 16 Local Government Areas (LGAs). This survey employed a contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess the value respondents are willing to pay for such insurance and add to the growing literature on IBLI uptake. We discuss important issues ranging from the cost of the IBLI premium to the impact of social capital and access to alternative sources of income on adoption. Our findings show that farmers are willing to pay a 1.3% premium for IBLI, which is lower than the current premium charged for traditional agricultural insurance in Nigeria which typically ranges from 2% to 5%. The results also highlight the need to consider insurance uptake and access to credit as complementary measures, rather than substitute strategies for managing the risks posed by severe climate shocks and extremes.

Achieving carbon-neutrality goals in Asian emerging economies: Role of investment in clean energy, eco-regulations, and green finance

Predicting the future of the globe due to severe climate changes caused by the emission of human-induced gases is heated debate of this era. Paris Climate Accord (COP26) is one of the initiatives taken by the nations to achieve carbon neutrality (zero carbon) and prevent the planet from the hazardous effect of carbon emission. This study aims to examine if renewable energy consumption, green finance and eco-regulations help in reducing carbon emission in four emerging Asian economies. Utilizing the panel data from 2010 to 2021, this study applies cross sectional ARDL regression estimation to empirically examine the research issue. The findings indicate that the promotion of clean energy initiatives via renewable energy consumption, implementation of eco-regulations and utilization of green finance substantially reduce carbon emissions while enhancing a nation’s capacity to reach the objective of carbon neutrality. The findings have practical implication for the regulatory bodies to develop eco-regulations and motivate the nation towards using renewable energy in order to combat with carbon emission.

Rethinking climate agreements: self-enforcing strategies for emission reduction through sanctions

Although climate change is expected to cause significant negative impacts, climate treaties give hope for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, potentially leading to less severe climate change. However, climate change is a public bad: If each country aims to maximize its own benefit, some countries might free ride and continue to emit GHGs. Consequently, climate treaties have seen limited success, and a central question is how future treaties can achieve GHG emission reduction and also be ‘self-enforcing’—where participating countries have no incentive to withdraw or modify their contributions. Here we examine a dynamic negotiation process involving multiple countries, each deciding whether and when to join the agreement and whether to penalize non-participants. In particular, we distinguish between (1) indirect punishment, in which countries invest less in emission reduction in response to non-compliance of other countries, and (2) direct punishment, in which countries impose sanctions, such as punitive tariffs, against countries that do not comply. We analyze the negotiation process using evolutionary game theory. We show that how the two types of punishment are implemented greatly affects the agreement’s outcome. In particular, an efficient combination of the punishments could lead to more desirable self-enforcing agreements. These findings indicate that integrating punitive measures with an effective negotiation framework could result in more desirable climate agreements.

Writing Stories of Anthropocene Extinction: Barbara Kingsolver’s Fiction and Nonfiction

ABSTRACT Humans are the most numerous big animals on Earth, deciding the fate of other species. As the massive geological force in the current epoch, the Anthropocene, human-driven alterations of the Earth’s environment take the form of a few dangerous trends: climate disruptions, species extinction, pollution of air, land, and sea, and growth of the human population. Barbara Kingsolver’s fictional works Prodigal Summer (2000) and Flight Behaviour (2012) are environment writings and narratives that foreground the current ‘Anthropocene extinction’ crisis. She recounts the stories of the coyote clan and the already extinct red wolf, the American chestnuts that became nearly extinct, the Monarchs changing their flight direction to more severe climate conditions, the booming trade of wildlife and pet animals, and numerous other species readily available for human consumption and use. Kingsolver’s writings amalgamate scientific knowledge with poetics and intersect the fiction and realities of global species extinction. The paper examines why exploring literary texts on species extinction is important and focuses on the storytelling mode of Kingsolver’s extinction narratives. This study also presents the texts as new narratives of hope presenting the affirmative visions of a sustainable future and the coexistence of human-nonhuman species.

Can mixing Quercus robur and Quercus petraea with Pinus sylvestris compensate for productivity losses due to climate change?

The climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with a representative concentration pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing of 4.5 W m−2 and 8.5 W m−2 by 2100, respectively, predict an increase in temperature of 1–4.5° Celsius for Europe and a simultaneous shift in precipitation patterns leading to increased drought frequency and severity. The negative consequences of such changes on tree growth on dry sites or at the dry end of a tree species distribution are well-known, but rarely quantified across large gradients. In this study, the growth of Quercus robur and Quercus petraea (Q. spp.) and Pinus sylvestris in pure and mixed stands was predicted for a historical scenario and the two climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the individual tree growth model PrognAus. Predictions were made along an ecological gradient ranging from current mean annual temperatures of 5.5–11.4 °C and with mean annual precipitation sums of 586–929 mm. Initial data for the simulation consisted of 23 triplets established in pure and mixed stands of Q. spp. and P. sylvestris. After doing the simulations until 2100, we fitted a linear mixed model using the predicted volume in the year 2100 as response variable to describe the general trends in the simulation results. Productivity decreased for both Q. spp. and P. sylvestris with increasing temperature, and more so, for the warmer sites of the gradient. P. sylvestris is the more productive tree species in the current climate scenario, but the competitive advantage shifts to Q. spp., which is capable to endure very high negative water potentials, for the more severe climate change scenario. The Q. spp.-P. sylvestris mixture presents an intermediate resilience to increased scenario severity. Enrichment of P. sylvestris stands by creating mixtures with Q. spp., but not the opposite, might be a right silvicultural adaptive strategy, especially at lower latitudes. Tree species mixing can only partly compensate productivity losses due to climate change. This may, however, be possible in combination with other silvicultural adaptation strategies, such as thinning and uneven-aged management.