Sequential Monte Carlo Estimation Research Articles

Approximate Bayesian Computation for Smoothing

We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and it involves the introduction of auxiliary variables valued in the same space as the observations. The quality of the approximation may be controlled to arbitrary precision through a parameter ε > 0. We provide theoretical results which quantify, in terms of ε, the ABC error in approximation of expectations of additive functionals with respect to the smoothing distributions. Under regularity assumptions, this error is , where n is the number of time steps over which smoothing is performed. For numerical implementation, we adopt the forward-only sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme of [14] and quantify the combined error from the ABC and SMC approximations. This forms some of the first quantitative results for ABC methods which jointly treat the ABC and simulation errors, with a finite number of data and simulated samples.

Parallel sequential Monte Carlo samplers and estimation of the number of states in a Hidden Markov Model

The majority of modelling and inference regarding Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) assumes that the number of underlying states is known a priori. However, this is often not the case and thus determining the appropriate number of underlying states for a HMM is of considerable interest. This paper proposes the use of a parallel sequential Monte Carlo samplers framework to approximate the posterior distribution of the number of states. This requires no additional computational effort if approximating parameter posteriors conditioned on the number of states is also necessary. The proposed strategy is evaluated on a comprehensive set of simulated data and shown to outperform the state of the art in this area: although the approach is simple, it provides good performance by fully exploiting the particular structure of the problem. An application to business cycle analysis is also presented.

Neural decoding using a parallel sequential Monte Carlo method on point processes with ensemble effect.

Sequential Monte Carlo estimation on point processes has been successfully applied to predict the movement from neural activity. However, there exist some issues along with this method such as the simplified tuning model and the high computational complexity, which may degenerate the decoding performance of motor brain machine interfaces. In this paper, we adopt a general tuning model which takes recent ensemble activity into account. The goodness-of-fit analysis demonstrates that the proposed model can predict the neuronal response more accurately than the one only depending on kinematics. A new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm based on the proposed model is constructed. The algorithm can significantly reduce the root mean square error of decoding results, which decreases 23.6% in position estimation. In addition, we accelerate the decoding speed by implementing the proposed algorithm in a massive parallel manner on GPU. The results demonstrate that the spike trains can be decoded as point process in real time even with 8000 particles or 300 neurons, which is over 10 times faster than the serial implementation. The main contribution of our work is to enable the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm with point process observation to output the movement estimation much faster and more accurately.

Sub-sample swapping for sequential Monte Carlo approximation of high-dimensional densities in the context of complex object tracking

In this paper, we address the problem of complex object tracking using the particle filter framework, which essentially amounts to estimate high-dimensional distributions by a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. For this purpose, we first exploit Dynamic Bayesian Networks to determine conditionally independent subspaces of the object’s state space, which allows us to independently perform the particle filter’s propagations and corrections over small spaces. Second, we propose a swapping process to transform the weighted particle set provided by the update step of the particle filter into a “new particle set” better focusing on high peaks of the posterior distribution. This new methodology, called Swapping-Based Partitioned Sampling, is proved to be mathematically sound and is successfully tested and validated on synthetic video sequences for single or multiple articulated object tracking.

Bayesian parameter inference for partially observed stopped processes

We consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B 0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally within the context of a wide variety of applications. The associated posterior distributions are highly complex and posterior parameter inference requires the use of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Our approach uses a recently introduced simulation methodology, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) (Andrieu et al. 2010), where sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (Doucet et al. 2001; Liu 2001) approximations are embedded within MCMC. However, when the parameter of interest is fixed, standard SMC algorithms are not always appropriate for many stopped processes. In Chen et al. (2005), Del Moral (2004), the authors introduce SMC approximations of multi-level Feynman-Kac formulae, which can lead to more efficient algorithms. This is achieved by devising a sequence of sets from B 0 to A and then performing the resampling step only when the samples of the process reach intermediate sets in the sequence. The choice of the intermediate sets is critical to the performance of such a scheme. In this paper, we demonstrate that multi-level SMC algorithms can be used as a proposal in PMCMC. In addition, we introduce a flexible strategy that adapts the sets for different parameter proposals. Our methodology is illustrated on the coalescent model with migration.

An Online Expectation-Maximisation Algorithm for Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation Models

In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other unknown static parameters. We also propose a sequential Monte Carlo approximation of our online EM algorithm. We show the performance of the proposed method with two numerical examples.

Fingerprinting Mobile User Positions in Sensor Networks: Attacks and Countermeasures

We demonstrate that the network flux over the sensor network provides fingerprint information about the mobile users within the field. Such information is exoteric in the physical space and easy to access through passive sniffing. We present a theoretical model to abstract the network flux according to the statuses of mobile users. We fit the theoretical model with the network flux measurements through Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS) and develop an algorithm that iteratively approaches the NLS solution by Sequential Monte Carlo Estimation. With sparse measurements of the flux information at individual sensor nodes, we show that it is easy to identify the mobile users within the network and instantly track their movements without breaking into the details of the communicational packets. Our study indicates that most of existing systems are vulnerable to such attack against the privacy of mobile users. We further propose a set of countermeasures that redistribute and reshape the network traffic to preserve the location privacy of mobile users. With a trace driven simulation, we demonstrate the substantial threats of the attacks and the effectiveness of the proposed countermeasures.

Reducing descriptor measurement error through Bayesian estimation of fingerprint minutia location and direction

Fingerprint-based recognition relies on the matching of features derived from the ridges and valleys of the friction ridge surface. When a large quantity of good-quality features are available, identification can be made with a high level of confidence. When portions of the fingerprint image are of lower quality, accuracy will suffer in the feature extraction and subsequent matching steps. This study is concerned with the correction of descriptor errors in minutiae (ridge endings and bifurcations), and with evaluation of the effect of feature accuracy on matching performance. The approach applies Bayesian filtering to refine minutia location and direction descriptors, using Sequential Monte Carlo approximation of a joint probability distribution near each minutia. The distribution approximates the location and orientation of the minutia, given measurements on local greyscale information, from which an expectation can be determined. Experimental results have been presented which demonstrate improvement of localisation accuracy with respect to ground truth data when using a well-known minutia extractor. These results are shown to be statistically significant, and to lead to improved matching performance. In addition, the authors were able to reduce the average minutia position error for a set of reference minutiae by 83% when using the proposed refinement method.

Pilot‐Aided Sequential Monte Carlo Estimation of Phase Distortions and Transmitted Symbols in Multicarrier Systems

We address the challenging problem of the joint estimation of transmitted symbols and phase distortions in standardized multicarrier systems, including pilot or virtual subcarriers. These subcarriers create time correlation on the useful transmitted OFDM signal that we propose to take into account by an autoregressive model. Because the phase distortions are nonlinear, we set the joint estimation algorithm on the framework of the Sequential Monte Carlo methods. Simulation results are provided in terms of bit error rate (BER) and mean square error (MSE); they highlight the efficiency and the robustness of the estimator.

Sequential Monte Carlo Point-Process Estimation of Kinematics from Neural Spiking Activity for Brain-Machine Interfaces

Many decoding algorithms for brain machine interfaces' (BMIs) estimate hand movement from binned spike rates, which do not fully exploit the resolution contained in spike timing and may exclude rich neural dynamics from the modeling. More recently, an adaptive filtering method based on a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the neural state from the observed spike times has been proposed. However, it assumes and propagates a gaussian distributed state posterior density, which in general is too restrictive. We have also proposed a sequential Monte Carlo estimation methodology to reconstruct the kinematic states directly from the multichannel spike trains. This letter presents a systematic testing of this algorithm in a simulated neural spike train decoding experiment and then in BMI data. Compared to a point-process adaptive filtering algorithm with a linear observation model and a gaussian approximation (the counterpart for point processes of the Kalman filter), our sequential Monte Carlo estimation methodology exploits a detailed encoding model (tuning function) derived for each neuron from training data. However, this added complexity is translated into higher performance with real data. To deal with the intrinsic spike randomness in online modeling, several synthetic spike trains are generated from the intensity function estimated from the neurons and utilized as extra model inputs in an attempt to decrease the variance in the kinematic predictions. The performance of the sequential Monte Carlo estimation methodology augmented with this synthetic spike input provides improved reconstruction, which raises interesting questions and helps explain the overall modeling requirements better.

Batch and Sequential Bayesian Estimators of the Number of Active Terminals in an IEEE 802.11 Network

The performance of the IEEE 802.11 protocol based on the distributed coordination function (DCF) has been shown to be dependent on the number of competing terminals and the backoff parameters. Better performance can be expected if the parameters are adapted to the number of active users. In this paper we develop both off-line and online Bayesian signal processing algorithms to estimate the number of competing terminals. The estimation is based on the observed use of the channel and the number of competing terminals is modeled as a Markov chain with unknown transition matrix. The off-line estimator makes use of the Gibbs sampler whereas the first online estimator is based on the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique. A deterministic variant of the SMC estimator is then developed, which is simpler to implement and offers superior performance. Finally a novel approximate maximum a posteriori (MAP) algorithm for hidden Markov models (HMM) with unknown transition matrix is proposed. Realistic IEEE 802.11 simulations using the ns-2 network simulator are provided to demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed estimators

Convergence results for the particle PHD filter

Bayesian single-target tracking techniques can be extended to a multiple-target environment by viewing the multiple-target state as a random finite set, but evaluating the multiple-target posterior distribution is currently computationally intractable for real-time applications. A practical alternative to the optimal Bayes multitarget filter is the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which propagates the first-order moment of the multitarget posterior instead of the posterior distribution itself. It has been shown that the PHD is the best-fit approximation of the multitarget posterior in an information-theoretic sense. The method avoids the need for explicit data association, as the target states are viewed as a single global target state, and the identities of the targets are not part of the tracking framework. Sequential Monte Carlo approximations of the PHD using particle filter techniques have been implemented, showing the potential of this technique for real-time tracking applications. This paper presents mathematical proofs of convergence for the particle filtering algorithm and gives bounds for the mean-square error

Convergence of the SMC Implementation of the PHD Filte

The probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter is a first moment approximation to the evolution of a dynamic point process which can be used to approximate the optimal filtering equations of the multiple-object tracking problem. We show that, under reasonable assumptions, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of the PHD filter converges in mean of order \(p \geq 1\), and hence almost surely, to the true PHD filter. We also present a central limit theorem for the SMC approximation, show that the variance is finite under similar assumptions and establish a recursion for the asymptotic variance. This provides a theoretical justification for this implementation of a tractable multiple-object filtering methodology and generalises some results from sequential Monte Carlo theory.

Tracking Airborne Targets Occasionally Hidden in the Blind Doppler

Gordon, N., and Ristic B., Tracking Airborne Targets Occasionally Hidden in the Blind Doppler, Digital Signal Processing 12 (2002) 383–393 The blind Doppler refers to the bands of Doppler frequency where targets are invisible due to rejection of ground clutter from the radar echoes. The paper describes an application of sequential Monte Carlo estimation (particle filtering) to the problem of tracking a target occasionally hidden in the blind Doppler regions. The limits of these regions represent hard edges on the probability distributions that can be fairly easily incorporated into the framework of the particle filter. Simulation results suggest a significant improvement in track continuity when this prior information of blind Doppler limits is exploited.

Sequential determination of the number of bootstrap samples

The primary purpose of this paper is that of developing a sequential Monte Carlo approximation to an ideal bootstrap estimate of the parameter of interest. Using the concept of fixed-precision approximation, we construct a sequential stopping rule for determining the number of bootstrap samples to be taken in order to achieve a specified precision of the Monte Carlo approximation. It is shown that the sequential Monte Carlo approximation is asymptotically efficient in the problems of estimation of the bias and standard error of a given statistic. Efficient bootstrap resampling is discussed and a numerical study is carried out for illustrating the obtained theoretical results.