Sequential Choice Research Articles

Choosing to choose or not

AbstractTo what degree do people prefer to choose for themselves and what drives this preference? Is it memory-based and results from a life-long association between choices and better outcomes, or is the process of choice itself reinforcing? In a new paradigm, across 6 experiments, participants experienced both ’Own Choice’ and ’Computer Picks’ conditions with identical outcomes before selecting which condition to re-experience in the final part of the experiment. Consistent with previous work, an overwhelming majority ( 83%) preferred own-choice. Several variations of the paradigm reveal that (1) Preference For Choice (PFC) is reduced when thinking about the task without actually choosing in it, (2) PFC is substantially reduced by choice-unrelated cognitive load, and (3) Preference For Choice is further diminished when selection is based on criteria other than one’s preferences. Across experiments, participants’ self-rated enjoyment predicted a significant portion of their PFC, while their perceived gains had little to no predictive value. If PFC stems solely from past reinforcement learning (i.e., memory) then neither performing another few scores of choices nor adding cognitive load to that sequence of choices would be expected to dramatically affect it. Hence, our findings suggest that a significant part of this preference stems from the process of choice itself, and that the experience it confers can itself be reinforcing. We discuss the implications of the proposed mechanism for PFC, which leads us to the prediction that PFC may be muted or even reversed under specific conditions and what this means for when the ‘opposite’ effect – sticking with the default – will occur.

Evolução do relacionamento entre a alta administração e média gerência em um processo de implementação estratégica no contexto da crise do COVID-19

Objective: The purpose of our study was to investigate how the relationship between top and middle management occurs during a strategy implementation in a crisis context, more specifically the one triggered by Covid-19 virus. Methodology/approach: The approach used was a single, in-depth case study. We adopted a process perspective, which considers the sequence of events and choices made over time, at multiple levels and units of analysis. We analyzed documents and interviewed members of top management, middle management, operational management and two consultants working in the investigated company. We then seek to identify instances of action and interaction where patterns could emerge. Originality/Relevance: There is an increasing number of studies about the role of middle management in the organizations strategic process, but there are still few empirical studies in crisis contexts. This study investigates strategic implementation process during the Covid-19 crisis, shedding light on dynamics of control, relationship and autonomy involving top and middle levels of management. Main results: We identified that the Covid-19 crisis enabled the closer approximation of top management with the middle managers, intensified by Crisis Committee meetings in the organization. The crisis management also catalyzed the process of reducing ambiguities and opening up senior management for the presentation and acceptance of ideas from the middle echelons.Theoretical/methodological contributions: Our findings contribute to the literature on crises, revealing both the process of strengthening relationships between top and middle managers, as well as the building content from the contributions of the middle managers, which can lead to a superior result. We also endorse the impacts of the facilitating conditions proposed by Mantere (2008) based on the work of Floyd Wooldridge (1992), even in the context of crisis. We also endorsed the proposals by Macpherson, Breslin and Akinci (2021) on the role of middle managers as connectors for initiatives in extreme situations that, otherwise, would not have visibility. Social contributions / for practice: For practice, we launch additional clues in favor of greater openness of top managers for the participation of middle managers in the implementation and strategic adaptation, even in a context of crisis. Similarly, we demonstrated that extreme crisis contexts are prone to rethink interorganizational structures and relationships, aiming at the renewal of management strategies and roles.

Seeming incomparability and rational choice

We sometimes have to choose between options that are seemingly incomparable insofar as they seem to be neither better than, worse than, nor equal to each other. This often happens when the available options are quite different from one another. For instance, consider a choice between prioritizing either criminal justice reform or healthcare reform as a public policy goal. Even after the relevant details of the goals and possible reforms are filled in, it is plausible that neither goal is better than, worse than, nor equal to the other. Such seemingly incomparable options present a problem for rational choice since it is unclear how an agent might rationally choose between them. What we need are some principles to help govern rational choice when faced with seemingly incomparable options. I here present three such principles. While each principle is individually compelling, I show that they are jointly incompatible. I then argue that the correct response to this inconsistent triad is to reject the principle that rationally censures performing a sequence of choices one knows will result in a suboptimal outcome. The upshot is that when seeming incomparability is involved, an agent can money pump themselves without being less rational for it.

Justifiable justifications in sequential indulgent choice situations: A framework for future research based on perceived exceptionality

Much can be learned from studying the effectiveness of consumers’ justifications for their behavior across multiple sequential choice occasions, but research on this topic is scarce. In response, the present research puts forth a conceptual framework for addressing vice-virtue dilemmas through the lens of repeated justifications for indulgent choice based on the notion of perceived exceptionality over time and the salient prior decisions that help to determine this exceptionality. The authors discuss their framework for a broader understanding of indulgent choice and decision-making patterns, as well as possible process mechanisms and specific avenues for future research.

Modelling Cournot Games as Multi-agent Multi-armed Bandits

We investigate the use of a multi-agent multi-armed bandit (MA-MAB) setting for modeling repeated Cournot oligopoly games, where the firms acting as agents choose from the set of arms representing production quantity (a discrete value). Agents interact with separate and independent bandit problems. In this formulation, each agent makes sequential choices among arms to maximize its own reward. Agents do not have any information about the environment; they can only see their own rewards after taking an action. However, the market demand is a stationary function of the total industry output, and random entry or exit from the market is not allowed. Given these assumptions, we found that an ε-greedy approach offers a more viable learning mechanism than other traditional MAB approaches, as it does not require any additional knowledge of the system to operate. We also propose two novel approaches that take advantage of the ordered action space: ε-greedy+HL and ε-greedy+EL. These new approaches help firms to focus on more profitable actions by eliminating less profitable choices and hence are designed to optimize the exploration. We use computer simulations to study the emergence of various equilibria in the outcomes and do the empirical analysis of joint cumulative regrets.

Land tenure security and preferences to dispute resolution pathways among landholders in Nigeria

The occurrence of land-related disputes remains inevitable due to conflicting interests often associated with land rights. However, how these disputes are resolved remains of great interest to development scholars and policy makers alike. In this paper, both perceived land tenure (in)security and dispute resolution pathway preferences of plot holders are examined using a nationally representative survey dataset from Nigeria. The degree of perceived tenure security in an ordinal scale is measured using the combined indicators of perception of occurrence of ownership dispute and the perception of not losing plot should dispute occurs. Further, a two-stage sequence of choice of institutions for land-related dispute resolutions was constructed from the data to obtain four categories of possible resolution pathways. Partially constrained generalized ordered logit and multinomial logit models were also employed to assess the effects of plot holders’ socio-economic and plot characteristics on perceived tenure (in)security and choice of dispute resolution pathway, respectively. Results reveal that the level of perceived tenure security decreases with increasing indicator combination and the choice of informal – informal pathway remains dominant even in the presence of legal pluralism. Policies that promote land documentation, strengthened extension services, and strengthened institutional capacities and access are envisioned to play significant roles in reducing land-related disputes and facilitating their resolution.

Single Cell transcriptomes highlight the temporal hierarchy of fate decisions of the developmental tree from Neural Border Stages to Migration of NC Cells

Gene regulatory networks govern the steps of embryonic development and control cell transcriptional states. The neural crest cells are an archetypal example of cellular diversification from a multipotent progenitor population. However, the full sequence of molecular choices governing the emergence of neural crest heterogeneity from the ectoderm state remains elusive. Here we combine ultra‐dense single cell transcriptomes with machine‐learning strategies and experimental validation to provide a comprehensive gene regulatory network driving vertebrate neural crest fate diversification from induction to early migration stages. Transcription factor connectome and bifurcation analyses discover that several early neural crest fates emerge at the neural plate stage, alongside an unbiased multipotent neural crest lineage persisting until after epithelial‐mesenchymal transition. We also define a new and transient neural border zone state, preceding choice between neural crest and placodes during gastrulation. Our comprehensive experimental approach combined to several ML strategies broadly applicable to single cell transcriptomics deciphers the circuits driving cranial and vagal neural crest formation and provides a general model for investigating vertebrate GRNs in development, evolution and disease

From single decisions to sequential choice patterns: Extending the dynamics of value-based decision-making

Every day, we make many value-based decisions where we weigh the value of options with other properties, e.g. their time of delivery. In the laboratory, such value-based decision-making is usually studied on a trial by trial basis and each decision is assumed to represent an isolated choice process. Real-life decisions however are usually embedded in a rich context of previous choices at different time scales. A fundamental question is therefore how the dynamics of value-based decision processes unfold on a time scale across several decisions. Indeed, findings from perceptual decision making suggest that sequential decisions patterns might also be present for vale-based decision making. Here, we use a neural-inspired attractor model as an instance of dynamic models from perceptual decision making, as such models incorporate inherent activation dynamics across decisions. We use the model to predict sequential patterns, namely oscillatory switching, perseveration and dependence of perseveration on the delay between decisions. Furthermore, we predict RT effects for specific sequences of trials. We validate the predictions in two new studies and a reanalysis of existing data from a novel decision game in which participants have to perform delay discounting decisions. Applying the validated reasoning to a well-established choice questionnaire, we illustrate and discuss that taking sequential choice patterns into account may be necessary to accurately analyse and model value-based decision processes, especially when considering differences between individuals.

A sequential choice model for multiple discrete demand

A sequential choice model for multiple discrete demand

Engineering protein activity into off-the-shelf DNA devices

SummaryDNA-based devices are straightforward to design by virtue of their predictable folding, but they lack complex biological activity such as catalysis. Conversely, protein-based devices offer a myriad of functions but are much more difficult to design due to their complex folding. This study combines DNA and protein engineering to generate an enzyme that is activated by a DNA sequence of choice. A single protein switch, engineered from nanoluciferase using the alternate-frame-folding mechanism and herein called nLuc-AFF, is paired with different DNA technologies to create a biosensor for specific nucleic acid sequences, sensors for serotonin and ATP, and a two-input logic gate. nLuc-AFF is a genetically encoded, ratiometric, blue/green-luminescent biosensor whose output can be quantified by a phone camera. nLuc-AFF retains ratiometric readout in 100% serum, making it suitable for analyzing crude samples in low-resource settings. This approach can be applied to other proteins and enzymes to convert them into DNA-activated switches.

Using a Responsive Survey Design to Innovate Self-Administered Mixed-Mode Surveys

Abstract Implementing innovations in surveys often results in uncertainty concerning how different design decisions will affect key performance indicators such as response rates, nonresponse bias, or survey costs. Thus, responsive survey designs have been developed to better cope with such situations. In the present study, we propose a responsive survey design that relies on experimentation in the earlier phases of the survey to decide between different design choices of which—prior to data collection—their impact on performance indicators is uncertain. We applied this design to the European Values Study 2017/2018 in Germany that advanced its general social survey-type design away from the traditional face-to-face mode to self-administered modes. These design changes resulted in uncertainty as to how different incentive strategies and mode choice sequences would affect response rates, nonresponse bias, and survey costs. We illustrate the application and operation of the proposed responsive survey design, as well as an efficiency issue that accompanies it. We also compare the performance of the responsive survey design to a traditional survey design that would have kept all design characteristics static during the field period.

Leadership in internationalization strategies

AbstractThis paper examines leadership in internationalization strategies for an asymmetric cost duopoly where firms choose between exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in a sequential setting. The incentive to lead and to engage in FDI is stronger for the more efficient firm. With sequential choices and the efficient firm playing in advance, it is less likely that firms pick identical internationalization strategies in equilibrium, as compared with simultaneous choices; this is more so for greater cost asymmetry. It also happens for large enough oligopoly profitability when the inefficient firm plays in advance. Follow‐the‐leader behaviour in FDI arises for low values of the setup cost. Although entry in FDI by both firms is best for consumers, total welfare can be higher with opposite internationalization strategies. Were firms given the opportunity to lead or wait and enter later, the efficient firm would emerge as the leader in exports/FDI depending on the well‐known proximity‐concentration trade‐off. Interestingly, the less efficient firm might prefer to wait for strategic reasons.

Response Times and Subjective Complexity of Food Choices: A Web-Based Experiment Across 3 Countries

Accurate collection of response times is one of the main advantages of web-administered stated choice experiments and it can be thought of as a behavioral indicator of cognitive effort. We use data from a food choice experiment administered across three countries and estimate a panel Mixed Multinomial Logit Model to obtain individual-specific utility weights. These are used to construct two utility-based measures of contextual choice complexity, which are combined with subjective measures of cognitive resources as well as indicators of opt-out selection. We first develop and then test hypothesized effects of complexity at the level of single choice task and choice sequence on response times. By using a log-linear random effects model with choice task response-time as dependent variable, we isolate these effects from other background variables. Results suggest that as our measures of complexity increase, so do response times and such effects are robust across the three countries. We argue that these results broadly support the validity of web-based choice surveys to measure food preference. We suggest that computers can help improve survey design by implementing algorithms to improve the overall efficiency of choice tasks design, for example, by using adaptive design algorithms that control cognitive challenges in accordance with the respondent’s predicted ability to tackle cognitive effort.

Sequential consumer choice as multi-cued retrieval.

Whether adding songs to a playlist or groceries during an online shop, how do we decide what to choose next? We develop a model that predicts such open-ended, sequential choices using a process of cued retrieval from long-term memory. Using the past choice to cue subsequent retrievals, this model predicts the sequential purchases and response times of nearly 5 million grocery purchases made by more than 100,000 online shoppers. Products can be associated in different ways, such as by their episodic association or semantic overlap, and we find that consumers query multiple forms of associative knowledge when retrieving options. Attending to certain knowledge sources, as estimated by our model, predicts important retrieval errors, such as the propensity to forget or add unwanted products. Our results demonstrate how basic memory retrieval mechanisms shape choices in real-world, goal-directed tasks.

A plan-based causal decision theory

Abstract In ‘An argument against causal decision theory’, Jack Spencer shows that standard formulations of causal decision theory run afoul of his Guaranteed Principle. In the sequential choice problem he employs to make this case, the transgression stems from an awkward discrepancy between how causalists typically value present vs future acts. This note suggests a version of causal decision theory that avoids this incongruity and so respects the Guaranteed Principle in Spencer’s problem. However, this formulation, and hence symmetric appraisal of present and future acts, is also shown to be insufficient to secure causalist satisfaction of the Guaranteed Principle in general.

Remarkable properties for diagnostics and inference of ranking data modelling.

The Plackett‐Luce model (PL) for ranked data assumes the forward order of the ranking process. This hypothesis postulates that the ranking process of the items is carried out by sequentially assigning the positions from the top (most liked) to the bottom (least liked) alternative. This assumption has been recently relaxed with the Extended Plackett‐Luce model (EPL) through the introduction of the discrete reference order parameter, describing the rank attribution path. By starting from two formal properties of the EPL, the former related to the inverse ordering of the item probabilities at the first and last stage of the ranking process and the latter well‐known as independence of irrelevant alternatives (or Luce's choice axiom), we derive novel diagnostic tools for testing the appropriateness of the EPL assumption as the actual sampling distribution of the observed rankings. These diagnostic tools can help uncovering possible idiosyncratic paths in the sequential choice process. Besides contributing to fill the gap of goodness‐of‐fit methods for the family of multistage models, we also show how one of the two statistics can be conveniently exploited to construct a heuristic method, that surrogates the maximum likelihood approach for inferring the underlying reference order parameter. The relative performance of the proposals, compared with more conventional approaches, is illustrated by means of extensive simulation studies.

Fusing Piety and Pop Culture

This essay analyzes the form of Hillsong Los Angeles’s live Sunday services and Hillsong California’s digital services using Kenneth Burke’s dramatistic analysis. Specifically, it extends Burke’s concept of the “representative anecdote” to accommodate the sequence of formal choices made in Hillsong church services. Furthermore, it considers the dialectical interactions of this underlying narrative, the material aspects of the service, and ritual enactments of the discourse therein. The essay offers a processual look at how one of the most popular global church movements articulates an organizationally coherent message in a local setting and also contributes to our understanding how millennial-led ministries influence the contemporary religious marketplace.

Divergent Potentialism: A Modal Analysis With an Application to Choice Sequences

AbstractModal logic has been used to analyze potential infinity and potentialism more generally. However, the standard analysis breaks down in cases of divergent possibilities, where there are two or more possibilities that can be individually realized but which are jointly incompatible. This paper has three aims. First, using the intuitionistic theory of choice sequences, we motivate the need for a modal analysis of divergent potentialism and explain the challenges this involves. Then, using Beth–Kripke semantics for intuitionistic logic, we overcome those challenges. Finally, we apply our modal analysis of divergent potentialism to make choice sequences comprehensible in classical terms.

Ex-Ante Prioritarianism Violates Sequential Ex-Ante Pareto

AbstractPrioritarianism is a variant of utilitarianism. It differs from utilitarianism in that benefiting individuals matters more the worse off these individuals are. On this view, there are two standard ways of handling risky prospects: Ex-Post Prioritarianism adjusts for prioritizing the worse off in final outcomes and then values prospects by the expectation of the sum total of those adjusted values, whereas Ex-Ante Prioritarianism adjusts for prioritizing the worse off on each individual's expectation and then values prospects by the sum total of those adjusted expectations. A standard objection to Ex-Post Prioritarianism is that it violates Ex-Ante Pareto, that is, it prescribes choices that worsen the expectations for everyone. In this article, I argue that Ex-Ante Prioritarianism suffers from much the same problem: it violates a sequential version of Ex-Ante Pareto, that is, it prescribes sequences of choices that worsen the expectations for everyone.

I will say “No” to that cookie: How imagined future self‐regulation drives current self‐regulation

AbstractConsumer decision processes in the real world often involve consideration of related choices that are temporally separated but similar in nature. In the context of sequential choices, this study examines how consumers respond to temptation in the present when imagining themselves engaging in their future behavior in the face of similar temptation. We demonstrate that consumers are more likely to resist (succumb to) current temptation when imagining themselves resisting (succumbing to) future temptation. Our investigation suggests a consistency effect whereby a future behavior involving temptation allows consumers to demonstrate that behavior when making an actual choice in the present. We further show that this consistency effect is stronger for nonimpulsive consumers and explained by the mechanism of counteractive construal, which occurs when consumers resolve a self‐control conflict by exaggerating the threat of a temptation to a goal (e.g., construing a tempting food as containing more calories than it actually does). By delineating the effect of considering a future behavior on consumers' immediate self‐regulation, this study offers implications for consumers who want to strengthen self‐regulation, for marketers who need to strategically address consumer behavior, and for public policymakers who want to promote a healthier society.