Sentinel General Practitioners Research Articles

Comparison of five influenza surveillance systems during the 2009 pandemic and their association with media attention

BackgroundDuring the 2009 influenza pandemic period, routine surveillance of influenza-like-illness (ILI) was conducted in The Netherlands by a network of sentinel general practitioners (GPs). In addition during the pandemic period, four other ILI/influenza surveillance systems existed. For pandemic preparedness, we evaluated the performance of the sentinel system and the others to assess which of the four could be useful additions in the future. We also assessed whether performance of the five systems was influenced by media reports during the pandemic period.MethodsThe trends in ILI consultation rates reported by sentinel GPs from 20 April 2009 through 3 January 2010 were compared with trends in data from the other systems: ILI cases self-reported through the web-based Great Influenza Survey (GIS); influenza-related web searches through Google Flu Trends (GFT); patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza, and detections of influenza virus by laboratories. In addition, correlations were determined between ILI consultation rates of the sentinel GPs and data from the four other systems. We also compared the trends of the five surveillance systems with trends in pandemic-related newspaper and television coverage and determined correlation coefficients with and without time lags.ResultsThe four other systems showed similar trends and had strong correlations with the ILI consultation rates reported by sentinel GPs. The number of influenza virus detections was the only system to register a summer peak. Increases in the number of newspaper articles and television broadcasts did not precede increases in activity among the five surveillance systems.ConclusionsThe sentinel general practice network should remain the basis of influenza surveillance, as it integrates epidemiological and virological information and was able to maintain stability and continuity under pandemic pressure. Hospital and virological data are important during a pandemic, tracking the severity, molecular and phenotypic characterization of the viruses and confirming whether ILI incidence is truly related to influenza virus infections. GIS showed that web-based, self-reported ILI can be a useful addition, especially if virological self-sampling is added and an epidemic threshold could be determined. GFT showed negligible added value.

Age Distribution of Influenza Like Illness Cases during Post-Pandemic A(H3N2): Comparison with the Twelve Previous Seasons, in France

In France, the 2011–2012 influenza epidemic was characterized by the circulation of antigenically drifted influenza A(H3N2) viruses and by an increased disease severity and mortality among the elderly, with respect to the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks. Whether the epidemiology of influenza in France differed between the 2011–2012 epidemic and the previous outbreaks is unclear. Here, we analyse the age distribution of influenza like illness (ILI) cases attended in general practice during the 2011–2012 epidemic, and compare it with that of the twelve previous epidemic seasons. Influenza like illness data were obtained through a nationwide surveillance system based on sentinel general practitioners. Vaccine effectiveness was also estimated. The estimated number of ILI cases attended in general practice during the 2011–2012 was lower than that of the past twelve epidemics. The age distribution was characteristic of previous A(H3N2)-dominated outbreaks: school-age children were relatively spared compared to epidemics (co-)dominated by A(H1N1) and/or B viruses (including the 2009 pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks), while the proportion of adults over 30 year-old was higher. The estimated vaccine effectiveness (54%, 95% CI (48, 60)) was in the lower range for A(H3N2) epidemics. In conclusion, the age distribution of ILI cases attended in general practice seems to be not different between the A(H3N2) pre-pandemic and post-pandemic epidemics. Future researches including a more important number of ILI epidemics and confirmed virological data of influenza and other respiratory pathogens are necessary to confirm these results.

Nationwide continuous monitoring of end-of-life care via representative networks of general practitioners in Europe

BackgroundAlthough end-of-life care has become an issue of great clinical and public health concern in Europe and beyond, we lack population-based nationwide data that monitor and compare the circumstances of dying and care received in the final months of life in different countries. The European Sentinel GP Networks Monitoring End of Life Care (EURO SENTIMELC) study was designed to describe and compare the last months of life of patients dying in different European countries. We aim to describe how representative GP networks in the EURO SENTIMELC study operate to monitor end of life care in a country, to describe used methodology, research procedures, representativity and characteristics of the population reached using this methodology.MethodsNationwide representative Networks of General Practitioners (GPs) – ie epidemiological surveillance systems representative of all GPs in a country or large region of a country – in Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain continuously registered every deceased patient (>18 year) in their practice, using weekly standardized registration forms, during two consecutive years (2009–2010).All GPs were asked to identify patients who had died “non-suddenly”. The last three months of these patients’ lives was surveyed retrospectively. Several quality control measures were used to ensure data of high scientific quality.ResultsA total of 6858 deaths were registered of which two thirds died non-suddenly (from 62% in the Netherlands to 69% in Spain), representative for the GP populations in the participating countries. Of all non-sudden deaths, between 32% and 44% of deaths were aged 85 or older; between 46% and 54% were female, and between 23% and 49% died at home. Cancer was cause of death in 37% to 53% of non-sudden death cases in the four participating countries.ConclusionVia the EURO SENTI-MELC methodology, we can build a descriptive epidemiological database on end-of-life care provision in several EU countries, measuring across setting and diseases. The data can serve as baseline measurement to compare and monitor end-of-life care over time. The use of representative GP networks for end-of-life care monitoring has huge potential in Europe where several of these networks are operational.

Improving general practice based epidemiologic surveillance using desktop clients: the French Sentinel Network experience.

Web-based applications are a choice tool for general practice based epidemiological surveillance; however their use may disrupt the general practitioners (GPs) work process. In this article, we propose an alternative approach based on a desktop client application. This was developed for use in the French General Practitioners Sentinel Network. We developed a java application running as a client on the local GP computer. It allows reporting cases to a central server and provides feedback to the participating GPs. XML was used to describe surveillance protocols and questionnaires as well as instances of case descriptions. An evaluation of the users' feelings was carried out and the impact on the timeliness and completeness of surveillance data was measured. Better integration in the work process was reported, especially when the software was used at the time of consultation. Reports were received more frequently with less missing data. This study highlights the potential of allowing multiple ways of interaction with the surveillance system to increase participation of GPs and the quality of surveillance.

Effectiveness of the trivalent influenza vaccine in Navarre, Spain, 2010–2011: a population-based test-negative case–control study

BackgroundSome studies have evaluated vaccine effectiveness in preventing outpatient influenza while others have analysed its effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the trivalent influenza vaccine in preventing outpatient illness and hospitalizations from laboratory-confirmed influenza in the 2010–2011 season.MethodsWe conducted a nested case–control study in the population covered by the general practitioner sentinel network for influenza surveillance in Navarre, Spain. Patients with influenza-like illness in hospitals and primary health care were swabbed for influenza testing. Influenza vaccination status and other covariates were obtained from health care databases. Using logistic regression, the vaccination status of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases was compared with that of test-negative controls, adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, outpatient visits in the previous 12 months, health care setting, time between symptom onset and swabbing, period and A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination. Effectiveness was calculated as (1-odds ratio)x100.ResultsThe 303 confirmed influenza cases (88% for A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza) were compared with the 286 influenza test-negative controls. The percentage of persons vaccinated against influenza was 4.3% and 15.7%, respectively (p<0.001). The adjusted estimate of effectiveness was 67% (95% CI: 24%, 86%) for all patients and 64% (95% CI: 8%, 86%) in those with an indication for vaccination (persons age 60 or older or with major chronic conditions). Having received both the 2010–2011 seasonal influenza vaccine and the 2009–2010 pandemic influenza vaccine provided 87% protection (95% CI: 30%, 98%) as compared to those not vaccinated.ConclusionThe 2010–2011 seasonal influenza vaccine had a moderate protective effect in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Comparison of the pandemic H1N1 2009 experience in the Southern Hemisphere with pandemic expectations

Objective: To describe the epidemiological characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus (pH1N1) over the 2009 and 2010 influenza seasons in Australia and New Zealand (NZ) and compare them with expectations based on previous pandemics. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) data were collected from established general practitioner sentinel surveillance schemes in NZ, Victoria and Western Australia (WA) throughout the 2009 and 2010 winter influenza seasons. Respiratory swabs from a sample of ILI patients were tested for influenza type and subtype. ILI rates and laboratory-confirmed influenza data were analysed by age group and over time. Morbidity, mortality and reproductive number data were collated from the published literature. Results: Peak ILI rates and the percentage of influenza-positive swabs from ILI patients from all sentinel surveillance schemes were considerably lower in 2010 than 2009. Compared to the population, cases of ILI were over-represented in the young. While the age distributions in NZ and WA remained consistent, ILI cases were significantly younger in Victoria in 2009 compared to 2010. In Victoria, laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 comprised up to 97% of influenza-positive swabs in 2009 but only 56–87% in 2010. Mortality and hospitalisations were lower in 2010. The effective reproduction number (R) for pH1N1 was estimated to be 1.2–1.5 in NZ and WA, similar to estimated R values for seasonal influenza. Data from the surveillance systems indicated differences in the epidemiology of pH1N1 compared to expectations based on previous pandemics. In particular, there was no evidence of a second pandemic wave associated with increased mortality, and complete influenza strain replacement did not occur. Implications: Pandemic planning needs to accommodate the potential for influenza viruses to produce pandemics of various infectiousness and degrees of severity.

Characteristics of a Widespread Community Cluster of H275Y Oseltamivir-Resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Australia

Background. Oseltamivir resistance in A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza is rare, particularly in untreated community cases. Sustained community transmission has not previously been reported.Methods. Influenza specimens from the Asia–Pacific region were collected through sentinel surveillance, hospital, and general practitioner networks. Clinical and epidemiological information was collected on patients infected with oseltamivir-resistant viruses.Results. Twenty-nine (15%) of 191 A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses collected between May and September 2011 from Hunter New England (HNE), Australia, contained the H275Y neuraminidase substitution responsible for oseltamivir resistance. Only 1 patient had received oseltamivir before specimen collection. The resistant strains were genetically very closely related, suggesting the spread of a single variant. Ninety percent of cases lived within 50 kilometers. Three genetically similar oseltamivir-resistant variants were detected outside of HNE, including 1 strain from Perth, approximately 4000 kilometers away. Computational analysis predicted that neuraminidase substitutions V241I, N369K, and N386S in these viruses may offset the destabilizing effect of the H275Y substitution.Conclusions This cluster represents the first widespread community transmission of H275Y oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza. These cases and data on potential permissive mutations suggest that currently circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses retain viral fitness in the presence of the H275Y mutation and that widespread emergence of oseltamivir-resistant strains may now be more likely.

Short message service sentinel surveillance of influenza-like illness in Madagascar, 2008-2012

The revision of the International Health Regulations (IHR) and the threat of influenza pandemics and other disease outbreaks with a major impact on developing countries have prompted bolstered surveillance capacity, particularly in low-resource settings. Surveillance tools with well-timed, validated data are necessary to strengthen disease surveillance. In 2007 Madagascar implemented a sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness (ILI) based on data collected from sentinel general practitioners. Before 2007, Madagascar's disease surveillance was based on the passive collection and reporting of data aggregated weekly or monthly. The system did not allow for the early identification of outbreaks or unexpected increases in disease incidence. An innovative case reporting system based on the use of cell phones was launched in March 2007. Encrypted short message service, which costs less than 2 United States dollars per month per health centre, is now being used by sentinel general practitioners for the daily reporting of cases of fever and ILI seen in their practices. To validate the daily data, practitioners also report epidemiological and clinical data (e.g. new febrile patient's sex, age, visit date, symptoms) weekly to the epidemiologists on the research team using special patient forms. Madagascar's sentinel ILI surveillance system represents the country's first nationwide "real-time" surveillance system. It has proved the feasibility of improving disease surveillance capacity through innovative systems despite resource constraints. This type of syndromic surveillance can detect unexpected increases in the incidence of ILI and other syndromic illnesses.

Moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness in Victoria, Australia, 2011

We used a sentinel general practitioner (GP) network to conduct surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza amongst patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) in Victoria, Australia in 2011. The test negative variation of the case control study design was used to estimate effectiveness for seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine. Cases and controls were ILI patients that tested positive and negative for influenza, respectively. Vaccination status was recorded by GPs and vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1-adjusted odds ratio)x100%. There were 529 patients included in the study, of which 29% were influenza positive. Twelve percent of study participants were reported as vaccinated, 6% of cases and 15% of controls. Adjusted VE against all influenza was 56%, but not statistically significant. There was generally little variation in VE estimates when stratified by virus type and subtype, which is consistent with good matches between circulating strains and the vaccine strains. The VE was higher among adults of working age than among children.

Incidence and management of presumption of Lyme borreliosis in Belgium: recent data from the sentinel network of general practitioners

An increasing incidence of tick bites and Lyme disease has been noticed internationally. The aims of this study are threefold: to estimate the incidence of tick bites and erythema migrans, to assess the compliance of the general practitioners (GPs) with the recommendations about the management of tick bites and erythema migrans, and finally, to have a look at the evolution over time, both on incidence and management. We used data of the Belgian network of sentinel general practitioners (SGP) to study the incidence rates in Belgium, the trend over time, and the degree of compliance of the SGP. The overall Belgian incidence rates in the SGP practice in 2008-2009 were 18.65 (95% CI 17.29-20.08) per 10,000 persons for tick bites and 9.02 (95% CI 8.08-10.03) for erythema migrans. The diagnostic management of patients with an asymptomatic tick bite has worsened over time, while the therapeutic management of erythema migrans has improved over time. The international increasing trend of the incidence was not observed in the SGP. There is still room for improvement concerning the approach of the GPs. Recommendations could help to improve their approach.

Absenteeism in schools during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic: a useful tool for early detection of influenza activity in the community?

Certain influenza outbreaks, including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, can predominantly affect school-age children. Therefore the use of school absenteeism data has been considered as a potential tool for providing early warning of increasing influenza activity in the community. This study retrospectively evaluates the usefulness of these data by comparing them with existing syndromic surveillance systems and laboratory data. Weekly mean percentages of absenteeism in 373 state schools (children aged 4-18 years) in Birmingham, UK, from September 2006 to September 2009, were compared with established syndromic surveillance systems including a telephone health helpline, a general practitioner sentinel network and laboratory data for influenza. Correlation coefficients were used to examine the relationship between each syndromic system. In June 2009, school absenteeism generally peaked concomitantly with the existing influenza surveillance systems in England. Weekly school absenteeism surveillance would not have detected pandemic influenza A(H1N1) earlier but daily absenteeism data and the development of baselines could improve the timeliness of the system.

Comparaison de la surveillance des syndromes grippaux par les réseaux sentinelles en Martinique et en Guadeloupe au cours de la pandémie grippale A(H1N1) 2009 : apports d’une enquête téléphonique en population générale et de la surveillance hospitalière

Background Sentinel general practitioner networks monitor influenza-like infections (ILI) in Martinique and in Guadeloupe (French West Indies). During the A(H1N1)2009 pandemic, they gave an ILI incidence estimation higher in Martinique than in Guadeloupe. In October 2009, a telephonic survey was launched in both islands to assess the number of ILI diagnoses performed by general practitioners since the beginning of the pandemic. This paper compares the results of sentinel surveillance, of telephonic survey and of hospital surveillance in Guadeloupe and in Martinique. Methods On each island, the sentinel network gathers a representative sample of voluntary general practitioners. Each week, they report the number of ILI they diagnosed the past week. Times series of these weekly numbers were modelized using the Serfling method with the upper limit of the confidence interval of the expected value representing the epidemic threshold. The telephone survey was conducted from October 2, 2009 to October 12, 2009 in Martinique and from October 13, 2009 to October 21, 2009 in Guadeloupe. The quota method was used for sampling individuals older than 14 years, leading to 507 interviews in Guadeloupe and 508 in Martinique. Results The epidemic lasted 12 weeks in both islands, from August 3 to October 25 in Martinique and from August 17 to November 8 in Guadeloupe. During August and September, estimated attack rate in Martinique was 5.52% (CI95: 5.23–5.83) from the sentinel network versus 8.3% (CI95: 6.0–11.0) from the telephone survey. In Guadeloupe, it was 2.13% (CI95: 1.97–2.24) from the sentinel network versus 6.9% (CI95: 4.8–9.5) from the telephone survey. An equivalent number of confirmed hospitalized cases was observed in the two islands. Conclusion These results suggest that the sentinel network underestimates ILI incidence in Guadeloupe. According to Emergency Room activity for ILI, it seems possible that ILI incidence was actually higher in Martinique. A lower proportion of swab sampling among ILI hospitalized people could partly explain the observed differences in hospitalization ratio, in severity and in lethality between the two islands.

Mumps epidemic in orthodox religious low-vaccination communities in the Netherlands and Canada, 2007 to 2009

We assessed the epidemiological characteristics of a mumps virus epidemic (genotype D) that occurred in the Netherlands between August 2007 and May 2009 and its association with a subsequent mumps outbreak in Canada. In the Netherlands, five data sources were used: notifications (only mandatory since the end of 2008) (56 cases), laboratory confirmation data (177 cases), a sentinel general practitioner (GP) database (275 cases), hospitalisation data (29 cases) and weekly virological reports (96 cases). The median age of cases in the notification, laboratory and GP databases ranged from 13 to 15 years. The proportion of cases that were unvaccinated ranged from 65% to 85% in the notification, laboratory and GP databases. Having orthodox Protestant beliefs was the main reason for not being vaccinated. In Canada, a mumps virus strain indistinguishable from the Dutch epidemic strain was detected between February and October 2008 in an orthodox Protestant community with historical and family links to the affected community in the Netherlands, suggesting that spread to Canada had occurred. Prevention and control of vaccine-preventable diseases among population subgroups with low vaccination coverage remains a priority.

Use of Workplace Absenteeism Surveillance Data for Outbreak Detection

To the Editor: We applaud Mann et al. on their use of a school-based absenteeism surveillance system to compare daily all-causes absenteeism data against a historic baseline to detect outbreaks of influenza-like illness (ILI) as an adjunct to traditional disease reporting (1). The growing availability of electronic human resources systems has increased the potential to harness near real-time workplace absenteeism data to complement school absenteeism surveillance and other sources of traditional outbreak surveillance. In London, United Kingdom, during the first wave of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009, workplace absenteeism data from the Transport for London attendance/absence reporting system were compared with the historical baseline 3-year mean for comparative weeks of the year. The proportion of Transport for London employees absent because of self-reported or medically certified ILI, during June 28–October 17, 2010, generated surveillance alerts when compared with historical baseline data above the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds (SDs 1.96 and 2.58). For the same period, cause-specific workplace influenza absenteeism data were highly correlated with routinely published ILI surveillance, including the National Pandemic Flu Surveillance and sentinel General Practitioner systems (Figure) (2). Figure Comparison of transport for London absenteeism rates from influenza data to syndromic surveillance indicators of influenza-like illness rates, London, United Kingdom, 2009. A) National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS); B) Royal College of General Practitioners ... In Australia, workplace all-causes absenteeism for a major Australia-wide employer has been included as a nonspecific indicator of influenza surveillance by the Australian government for >15 years. A recent study during a severe influenza season in Australia confirmed that employee absenteeism was highly correlated with laboratory-confirmed influenza, and such information could be used to provide surveillance alerts up to 2 weeks before other traditional influenza surveillance data sources (3). The use of workplace absenteeism data, particularly from large employers, has the potential for overcoming the major limitation of school-based absenteeism data in detecting outbreaks of ILI: the effects of school holidays and local planned school closures. Near real-time workplace absenteeism is an effective surveillance tool and should be more widely incorporated in influenza surveillance systems.

Comparability of Different Methods for Estimating Influenza Infection Rates Over a Single Epidemic Wave

Estimation of influenza infection rates is important for determination of the extent of epidemic spread and for calculation of severity indicators. The authors compared estimated infection rates from paired and cross-sectional serologic surveys, rates of influenza like illness (ILI) obtained from sentinel general practitioners (GPs), and ILI samples that tested positive for influenza using data from similar periods collected during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Singapore. The authors performed sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of estimates to input parameter uncertainties, and they determined sample sizes required for differing levels of precision. Estimates from paired seroconversion were 17% (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 14, 20), higher than those from cross-sectional serology (12%, 95% BCI: 9, 17). Adjusted ILI estimates were 15% (95% BCI: 10, 25), and estimates computed from ILI and laboratory data were 12% (95% BCI: 8, 18). Serologic estimates were least sensitive to the risk of input parameter misspecification. ILI-based estimates were more sensitive to parameter misspecification, though this was lessened by incorporation of laboratory data. Obtaining a 5-percentage-point spread for the 95% confidence interval in infection rates would require more than 1,000 participants per serologic study, a sentinel network of 90 GPs, or 50 GPs when combined with laboratory samples. The various types of estimates will provide comparable findings if accurate input parameters can be obtained.

Estimation of type- and subtype-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness in Victoria, Australia using a test negative case control method, 2007-2008

BackgroundAntigenic variation of influenza virus necessitates annual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines, which contain two type A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and one type B strain. We used a test negative case control design to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza by type and subtype over two consecutive seasons in Victoria, Australia.MethodsPatients presenting with influenza-like illness to general practitioners (GPs) in a sentinel surveillance network during 2007 and 2008 were tested for influenza. Cases tested positive for influenza by polymerase chain reaction and controls tested negative for influenza. Vaccination status was recorded by sentinel GPs. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as [(1 - adjusted odds ratio) × 100%].ResultsThere were 386 eligible study participants in 2007 of whom 50% were influenza positive and 19% were vaccinated. In 2008 there were 330 eligible study participants of whom 32% were influenza positive and 17% were vaccinated. Adjusted VE against A/H3N2 influenza in 2007 was 68% (95% CI, 32 to 85%) but VE against A/H1N1 (27%; 95% CI, -92 to 72%) and B (84%; 95% CI, -2 to 98%) were not statistically significant. In 2008, the adjusted VE estimate was positive against type B influenza (49%) but negative for A/H1N1 (-88%) and A/H3N2 (-66%); none was statistically significant.ConclusionsType- and subtype-specific assessment of influenza VE is needed to identify variations that cannot be differentiated from a measure of VE against all influenza. Type- and subtype-specific influenza VE estimates in Victoria in 2007 and 2008 were generally consistent with strain circulation data.

Nationwide surveillance of 18 respiratory viruses in patients with influenza‐like illnesses: A pilot feasibility study in the French Sentinel Network

The aim of the present study was to test the feasibility of integrating the diagnosis of 18 respiratory viruses into clinical surveillance of influenza‐like illness using a PCR‐DNA microarray detection assay. The study took place in the French Sentinel Network, a nationwide surveillance network of General Practitioners (GPs) representative of French GPs in terms age, location, and type of practice (urban/rural). Three virological laboratories also participated in the study. The study was planned for 5 weeks from January 25, 2010 to February 27, 2010. A subset of 150 Sentinel GPs, located in mainland France, was enrolled to collect clinical data and nasopharyngeal samples from every first patient of the week having a medical visit for influenza‐like illness defined as a sudden fever of 39°C or more with respiratory symptoms and myalgia. Sixty‐three GPs (42%) collected 103 samples while 87 GPs (58%) did not. GPs did not differ with respect to their age, gender, urban/rural distribution, or years of inscription in the Sentinel Network. Patients included were of a similar age and had similar vaccination characteristics, but were more frequently men than influenza‐like illness patients reported to the network during the study period. Sixty‐one viruses were detected from 56 of 96 (58%) interpretable samples. The respiratory viruses detected most frequently were metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus. This study showed that virological diagnosis of 18 respiratory viruses can be combined with surveillance of clinical influenza‐like illness in general practice. Although feasibility has not been demonstrated yet, it will be evaluated over the winter of 2010–2011. J. Med. Virol. 83:1451–1457, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

EFFECTS OF PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS IN REDUCING TRANSMISSION OF HAND, FOOT, AND MOUTH DISEASE

We evaluated the effect of public health interventions including territory-wide school closure and hygiene campaigns during 2003 and 2009 in reducing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). We compared the observed and projected HFMD consultation rates among sentinel general practitioners using a decomposition regression model. Public health measures were effective in reducing HFMD by 57.2% (95% CI: 53.0%-60.7%) and 26.7% (95% CI: 19.5%-32.7%) in 2003 and 2009, respectively.

Clinical prediction rules combining signs, symptoms and epidemiological context to distinguish influenza from influenza-like illnesses in primary care: a cross sectional study

BackgroundDuring an influenza epidemic prompt diagnosis of influenza is important. This diagnosis however is still essentially based on the interpretation of symptoms and signs by general practitioners. No single symptom is specific enough to be useful in differentiating influenza from other respiratory infections. Our objective is to formulate prediction rules for the diagnosis of influenza with the best diagnostic performance, combining symptoms, signs and context among patients with influenza-like illness.MethodsDuring five consecutive winter periods (2002-2007) 138 sentinel general practitioners sampled (naso- and oropharyngeal swabs) 4597 patients with an influenza-like illness (ILI) and registered their symptoms and signs, general characteristics and contextual information. The samples were analysed by a DirectigenFlu-A&B and RT-PCR tests. 4584 records were useful for further analysis.Starting from the most relevant variables in a Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) model, we calculated the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC AUC), sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios for positive (LR+) and negative test results (LR-) of single and combined signs, symptoms and context taking into account pre-test and post-test odds.ResultsIn total 52.6% (2409/4584) of the samples were positive for influenza virus: 64% (2066/3212) during and 25% (343/1372) pre/post an influenza epidemic. During and pre/post an influenza epidemic the LR+ of 'previous flu-like contacts', 'coughing', 'expectoration on the first day of illness' and 'body temperature above 37.8°C' is 3.35 (95%CI 2.67-4.03) and 1.34 (95%CI 0.97-1.72), respectively. During and pre/post an influenza epidemic the LR- of 'coughing' and 'a body temperature above 37.8°C' is 0.34 (95%CI 0.27-0.41) and 0.07 (95%CI 0.05-0.08), respectively.ConclusionsRuling out influenza using clinical and contextual information is easier than ruling it in. Outside an influenza epidemic the absence of cough and fever (> 37,8°C) makes influenza 14 times less likely in ILI patients. During an epidemic the presence of 'previous flu-like contacts', cough, 'expectoration on the first day of illness' and fever (>37,8°C) increases the likelihood for influenza threefold. The additional diagnostic value of rapid point of care tests especially for confirming influenza still has to be established.

Declining Rates of Suicidal Behavior among General Practice Patients in Belgium: Results from Sentinel Surveillance between 1993 and 2008

The aim of this study was (1) to estimate the incidence of suicidal behavior, i.e., suicide and suicide attempts, among Belgian general practice patients in 2007–2008 and to estimate trends since previous surveillance periods, i.e., 1991–1993 and 2000–2001; and (2) to investigate characteristics of actors, acts, and first care delivery. Data were collected by the national network of sentinel general practitioners, recording all suicidal behavior they were confronted with in their daily practice in the three periods. In 2007–2008 incidence rates of both suicide and suicide attempts had declined compared to the previous periods while the use of violent versus non-violent suicidal methods remained unchanged. GP involvement in first care after suicidal behavior declined over time from 71% to 39% in the largest part of the population, i.e., younger and adult persons. The last surveillance of suicidal behavior by the Belgian sentinel network of GPs most likely resulted in an underestimation, probably as a result of a declining role of GPs in delivery of first care to patients following suicidal behavior.