Self-fulfilling Research Articles

The self-fulfilling prophecy in health and education: a literature review

Introduction. Self-fulfilling prophecy is any held belief or expectation that leads to behavior that ultimately proves that belief or expectation is true. Consciousness, belief, ideals, imagination, prejudice, values, whatever term one chooses to use, enter essentially and constitutively becoming a reality studied in the social sciences. Imagined becomes real and also tends to become a reality. Objective. The purpose of writing this article is to review several research results related to the self-fulfilling prophecy in its application in the education and health systems. Materials and Methods: A comprehensive strategy by searching for articles in research journal databases, using the internet, and conducting article reviews. Search for articles via Sinta, google scholar, PubMed, research gate, and science direct. The subject of the research is in the health and education sector to conduct a literature review with ten articles to determine the objectives, methods, samples, and results of each article. Results. This article suggests that the expectations, estimates, etiquette, and analysis of an educator can be influenced by several conditions that will have a major influence on the state of students in terms of personality, social life, psychology, and student teaching and learning process. In the health world, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy is used to build positive expectations in the process of treatment and health improvement. Conclusions. Self-fulfilling prophecy, when used positively, can be a powerful technique in the world of health and education.

Race-Based Real Estate Practices and Spuriousness in Community Criminology: Was the Chicago School Part of a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

For over a century, a small network of scholars, extending from the University of Chicago, shaped community criminology research. Drawing on human ecology, they argued that poor structural factors—poverty, ethnic heterogeneity, population mobility—cause crime. As this network studied crime in neighborhoods, another network changed neighborhoods. This other network also assumed structural factors were important, but its members developed policies and practices to alter them. This other network, also influenced by human ecology, was composed of real estate researchers. Historical records show that the two networks are connected. These connections raise the possibility of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The implications of the prophecy are that the correlations between structural factors and crime may be spurious. We show that real estate practices shaped structural factors. But the structural factors may not drive crime. Instead, real estate practices may have shaped crime opportunities through place management thus driving crime. This has serious implications for community criminology research. This theoretical paper lays out the historical evidence for this conjecture.

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Algorithmic Assessments, Transparency, and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

Predictive algorithmic scores can significantly impact the lives of assessed individuals by shaping decisions of organizations and institutions that affect them, for example, influencing the hiring prospects of job applicants or the release of defendants on bail. To better protect people and provide them the opportunity to appeal their algorithmic assessments, data privacy advocates and regulators increasingly push for disclosing the scores and their use in decision-making processes to scored individuals. Although inherently important, the response of scored individuals to such algorithmic transparency is understudied. Inspired by psychological and economic theories of information processing, we aim to fill this gap. We conducted a comprehensive empirical study to explore how and why disclosing the use of algorithmic scoring processes to (involuntarily) scored individuals affects their behaviors. Our results provide strong evidence that the disclosure of fundamentally erroneous algorithmic scores evokes self-fulfilling prophecies that endogenously steer the behavior of scored individuals toward their assessment, enabling algorithms to help produce the world they predict. Our results emphasize that isolated transparency measures can have considerable side effects with noticeable implications for the development of automation bias, the occurrence of feedback loops, and the design of transparency regulations.

Factors Impacting Outcomes in Brainstem Hemorrhage: A Single-center Experience Investigating Functional Outcome (P6-5.026)

<h3>Objective:</h3> To describe the functional outcomes and determine favorable prognostic factors in patients with brainstem hemorrhage. <h3>Background:</h3> Brainstem hemorrhage comprises 5–10% of intracranial hemorrhages (ICH) and is historically known to be associated with significant disability and high-mortality. Studies investigating functional outcome are limited and this presumption of poor prognosis can lead to premature withdrawal of care and self-fulfilling prophecy. <h3>Design/Methods:</h3> We retrospectively reviewed all ICH patients admitted to our center from 2017–2021 and identified CT-proven brainstem hemorrhage patients. We gathered demographic information, clinical and radiological parameters, outcome measures during and after hospitalization. The Modified Rankin scale (mRS) at 3–6 months was adjudicated by three independent investigators. Univariate analysis was performed to identify possible associations between outcome and potential prognostic factors using Mann-Whitney, Chi-square, and t-tests. <h3>Results:</h3> Among 569 ICH patients admitted, 29 (5%) brainstem hemorrhages were identified. 15 (52%) were male and 14 (48%) were female, with ages ranging from 20–91 (mean 61.9). The mortality rate was 52%, while 10 patients (34.5%) had good recovery (mRS 0–2). Age, gender, race, and hemorrhage location didn’t differ between groups. Our analysis demonstrated that the Glasgow coma scale (GCS) at admission, hemorrhage volume (ABC/2), ICH score, functional outcome in patients with primary ICH (FUNC) score, and early withdrawal of care were all significantly associated with both functional outcome and mortality. <h3>Conclusions:</h3> In our center, the percentage of brainstem hemorrhages and mortality was consistent with previous studies however there was a higher percentage of patients with good outcomes than previously reported in the literature. Despite sample size and study design limitations, our study suggests GCS at admission, lower hemorrhage volume, and favorable ICH severity scales were potential factors associated with good prognosis, while early withdrawal of care was associated with higher mortality. Identification of reliable prognostic factors is important to guide clinical management and prevent premature withdrawal of care. <b>Disclosure:</b> Dr. Gunduz has nothing to disclose. Miss Fleming has nothing to disclose. Dr. Sivakumar has nothing to disclose. Dr. Shaikh has nothing to disclose. Dr. Carandang has nothing to disclose.

To Treat or Not to Treat: Ethics of Management of Refractory Status Myoclonus Following Pediatric Anoxic Brain Injury

The development of status myoclonus (SM) in a postcardiac arrest patient has historically been thought of as indicative of not only a poor neurologic outcome but of neurologic devastation. In many instances, this may lead clinicians to initiate conversations about withdrawal of life sustaining therapies (WLST) regardless of the time from return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Recent studies showing a percentage of patients may make a good recovery has called into question whether a self-fulfilling prophecy has developed where the concern for a poor neurologic outcome leads clinicians to prematurely discuss WLST. The issue is only further complicated by changing terminology, lack of neuro-axis localization, and limited data regarding association with electroencephalogram (EEG) characteristics, all of which could aid in the understanding of the severity of neurologic injury associated with SM. Here we review the initial literature reporting SM as indicative of poor neurologic outcome, the studies that call this into question, the various definitions of SM and related terms as well as data regarding association with EEG backgrounds. We propose that improved prognostication on outcomes results from combining the presence of SM with other clinical variables (eg EEG patterns, MRI findings, and clinical exam). We discuss the ethical implications of using SM as a prognostic tool and its impact on decisions about life-sustaining care in children following cardiac arrest. We advocate for prognostication efforts to be delayed for at least 72 hours following ROSC and thus to treat SM in those early hours and days.

The United States and Asia in 2022

The past year witnessed active movement in the Indo-Pacific region to form or consolidate partnerships around shared values or interests. While tensions with China and threats from North Korea mounted, the Biden administration’s strategy toward a free and open Indo-Pacific gained ground in many Asian states but evoked only lukewarm reactions in others. Ongoing and new challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine tested the US leadership. Washington will need wisdom and patience to maintain solidarity among its allies and partners and avoid a self-fulfilling prophecy of armed conflict in its relations with China.

Did a Nocebo Effect Contribute to the Rise in Special Education Enrollment Following the Flint, Michigan Water Crisis?

Exposure to waterborne lead during the Flint Water Crisis during April 2014-October 2015 is believed to have caused increased special education enrollment in Flint children. This retrospective population-based cohort study utilized de-identified data for children under six years of age who had their blood lead tested during 2011 to 2019, and special education outcomes data for children enrolled in public schools for corresponding academic years (2011-12 to 2019-20) in Flint, Detroit (control city) and the State of Michigan. Trends in the following crisis-related covariates were also evaluated: waterborne contaminants, poverty, nutrition, city governance, school district policies, negative community expectations, media coverage and social media interactions. Between 2011 and 2019, including the 2014-15 crisis period, the incidence of elevated blood lead in Flint children (≥ 5µg/dL) was always at least 47% lower than in the control city of Detroit (p < .0001) and was also never significantly higher than that for all children tested in Michigan (p = 0.33). Nonetheless, special education enrollment in Flint spiked relative to Detroit and Michigan (p < .0001). There is actually an inverse relationship between childhood blood lead and special education enrollment in Flint. This study failed to confirm any positive association between actual childhood blood lead levels and special education enrollment in Flint. Negative psychological effects associated with media predictions of brain damage could have created a self-fulfilling prophecy via a nocebo effect. The findings demonstrate a need for improved media coverage of complex events like the Flint Water Crisis.

Book Review: Solution to Double Consciousness and the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: The Autobiography of an Ex-Colored Man

Book Review: Solution to Double Consciousness and the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: The Autobiography of an Ex-Colored Man

Do forecasts of bankruptcy cause bankruptcy? A machine learning sensitivity analysis

It is widely speculated that auditors’ public forecasts of bankruptcy are, at least in part, self-fulfilling prophecies in the sense that they actually cause bankruptcies that would not have otherwise occurred. This conjecture is hard to prove, however, because the strong association between bankruptcies and bankruptcy forecasts could simply indicate that auditors are skillful forecasters with unique access to highly predictive covariates. In this paper we investigate the causal effect of bankruptcy forecasts on bankruptcy using nonparametric sensitivity analysis. We contrast our analysis with two alternative approaches: a linear bivariate probit model with an endogenous regressor and a recently developed bound on risk ratios called E-values. Additionally, our machine learning approach incorporates a monotonicity constraint corresponding to the assumption that bankruptcy forecasts do not make bankruptcies less likely. Finally, a tree-based posterior summary of the treatment effect estimates allows us to explore which observable firm characteristics moderate the inducement effect.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Nonergodicity, and Wealth Inequality

We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally, and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-nonergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics, which makes successful bold bets highly profitable.

Theory Roulette: Choosing that Climate Change is not a Tragedy of the Commons

Climate change mitigation has become a paradigm case both for externalities in general and for the game-theoretic model of the Tragedy of the Commons (ToC) in particular. This situation is worrying, as we have reasons to suspect that some models in the social sciences are apt to be performative to the extent that they can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Framing climate change mitigation as a hardly solvable coordination problem may force us into a worse situation, by changing real-world behaviour to fit our model, rather than the other way around. But while this problem of the performativity of the ToC has been noted in a recent paper in this journal by Matthew Kopec, his proposed strategies for dealing with their self-fulfilling nature fall short of providing an adequate solution. Instead of relying on the idea that modelling assumptions are always strictly speaking false, this paper shows that the problem may be better framed as a problem of underdetermination between competing explanations. Our goal here is to provide a framework for choosing between this set of competing models that allows us to avoid a ‘Russian Roulette’-like situation in which we gamble with existential risk.

Overgeneralizing emotions: Facial width-to-height revisited.

Facial width-to height ratio (fWHR), presumed to be shaped by testosterone during puberty, has been linked with aggressive, dominant, and power-seeking behavioral traits in adult males, although the causal mediation is still being disputed. To investigate the role of mere observer attribution bias in the association, we instructed participants to draw, feature-assemble, or photo-edit faces of fictitious males with aggressive-dominant character (compared with peaceloving-submissive), or powerful social status (compared with powerless). Across three studies involving 1,100 modeled faces in total, we observed little evidence for attribution bias with regards to facial width. Only in the photo-edited faces did character condition seem to affect fWHR; this difference, however, relied on displayed state emotions, not on static facial features. Anger, in particular, was expressed by lowered or V-shaped eyebrows, whereby facial height was reduced so that fWHR increased, relative to the comparison condition where the opposite happened. Using Bayesian analyses and equivalence testing, we confirmed that, in the absence of state emotionality, there was no effect of character condition on facial width. Our results add to a number of recent studies stressing the role of emotion overgeneralization in the association of fWHR with personality traits, an attributional bias that may give rise to a self-fulfilling prophecy. Methodologically, we infer that static images may be of limited use for investigations of fWHR because they cannot sufficiently differentiate between transient muscular activation and identity-related bone structures. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

General equilibrium with multiple liquid assets

This paper studies, analytically and numerically, economies with multiple liquid assets: fiat currency; fixed-supply real assets; and reproducible capital. Cases are considered where assets provide direct liquidity, and indirect liquidity via over-the-counter trade. The results shed new light on how monetary policy affects asset markets and investment. We also provide novel results on endogenous fluctuations (self-fulfilling prophecies), including coexistence of multiple equilibria with very different correlation and volatility patterns. Then we investigate if monetary policy can eliminate multiplicity. A calibration exercise assesses the impact on asset markets and on welfare of different policies, including changing inflation, and eliminating currency altogether.

Self-fulfilling Prophecy in Practical and Automated Prediction

A self-fulfilling prophecy is, roughly, a prediction that brings about its own truth. Although true predictions are hard to fault, self-fulfilling prophecies are often regarded with suspicion. In this article, we vindicate this suspicion by explaining what self-fulfilling prophecies are and what is problematic about them, paying special attention to how their problems are exacerbated through automated prediction. Our descriptive account of self-fulfilling prophecies articulates the four elements that define them. Based on this account, we begin our critique by showing that typical self-fulfilling prophecies arise due to mistakes about the relationship between a prediction and its object. Such mistakes—along with other mistakes in predicting or in the larger practical endeavor—are easily overlooked when the predictions turn out true. Thus we note that self-fulfilling prophecies prompt no error signals; truth shrouds their mistakes from humans and machines alike. Consequently, self-fulfilling prophecies create several obstacles to accountability for the outcomes they produce. We conclude our critique by showing how failures of accountability, and the associated failures to make corrections, explain the connection between self-fulfilling prophecies and feedback loops. By analyzing the complex relationships between accuracy and other evaluatively significant features of predictions, this article sheds light both on the special case of self-fulfilling prophecies and on the ethics of prediction more generally.

Stereotypes and self-fulfilling prophecies in the Bayesian brain

ABSTRACT Stereotypes are often described as being generally inaccurate and irrational. However, for years, a minority of social psychologists has been proclaiming that stereotype accuracy is among the most robust findings in the field. This same minority also opposes the majority by questioning the power of self-fulfilling prophecies and thereby the construction of social reality. The present paper examines this long-standing debate from the perspective of predictive processing, an increasingly influential cognitive science theory. In this theory, stereotype accuracy and self-fulfilling prophecies are two sides of the same coin, namely prediction error minimisation, pointing to a new middle course between the two existing views. On the one hand, predictive processing indicates that depicting stereotypes as generally inaccurate runs counter to their actual purpose of making the social world predictable, which supports the minority view. On the other hand, predictive processing supposes that expectations, including stereotypes, permanently affect perception and behaviour and thereby co-construct social reality, which supports the majority view. Therefore, from a predictive processing perspective, stereotypes are largely rational and not per se inaccurate, and self-fulfilling prophecies are omnipresent and greatly affect social reality. This new middle course appears to fit the empirical data better than the two existing views.

Art of the Effigy

The Gujarat wing of the BJP, the Ruling Party of India, created controversy on the 19th of February with the publication of a cartoon on its Twitter handle. This cartoon depicting the hanging of a group of Muslim men was read, by the Indian media, in the context of the Gujarat wing's alleged complicity in orchestrating riots that left more than 700 Muslims dead. This article argues that the cartoon was neither a joke nor an insensitive reminder nor provocation. Instead, the cartoon should be read as prophetic, but prophetic in the particular sense of the BJP’s political messaging. The cartoon is prophetic in that its visual distortions create a future which action can transfer from hyperbole to reality. This call to action creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that both the people and the state strive towards. This reading of the cartoon as prophetic reveals the accessory mechanisms of the visual media and the support given by the digital circulation of the cartoon on Twitter to the threat depicted.

Essentialist beliefs about attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): an empirical study with preservice teachers

ABSTRACT Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a frequent diagnosis among children with emotional and behavioural difficulties. However, it is unclear which specific beliefs teachers hold about the disorder and how these shape their expectations. Essentialist beliefs about ADHD (the assumption that individuals with ADHD are fundamentally different from others) are prevalent in scientific and public discourse, but they may raise inauspicious expectations that could trigger negative self-fulfilling prophecies. In an online study, we randomly assigned preservice teachers (N = 213) to a group in which essentialist beliefs about ADHD were induced vs. a control group. The experimental manipulation induced essentialist beliefs, though only in a subgroup. In participants who had more previous experience with ADHD, essentialist beliefs could be induced and were associated with some of the pessimistic expectations studied. Our preliminary findings appear promising and should be further investigated to improve teacher training and to better support children with ADHD.

Politics and Mysticism in the Modern Republic of Korea: Case of Lee Jae-myung

In March 2023, the Korean politician, leader of opposition, Lee Jae-myung said that the grave of his parents was desecrated. He explained that several stones with hanjas were allegedly buried near the grave, which should negatively affect the fate and life of Lee himself and his family. It soon became clear that it was a falsification, and the stones were buried, on the contrary, with the consent of Lee Jae-myung and as a guarantee of his successful self-realization. Lee Jae Myung being accused of using a fake to gain attention. He was not the first Korean politician to use the traditional &amp;quot;Korean geography&amp;quot; of pungsu jiri seol in his campaign, but he was the first whose message was so oddly camouflaged. Therefore, the goal of my article is to explain the essence of Lee Jae-myung&amp;apos;s unsuccessful communicative act. In order to do this, at first, I examine the existing precedents in contemporary Korean politics related to spatial representations. Secondly, I look for the difference between the communicative acts of Lee Jae-myung&amp;apos;s predecessors connected with spatial representations and his own. The study is based on historical facts, content analysis of media materials, statistical analysis of Big Data, statements by politicians in the Republic of Korea, the theory of “self-fulfilling prophecy” by Robert Merton, as well as Chinese and Korean philosophies associated with spatial representations. The result of the study is as follows: unlike his predecessors, who emphasized their “chosenness” through spatial representations and manipulated their voters, Lee Jae-myung contrasted traditional spatial representations (the theory of pungsu jiri seol) with shamanism, with which Yoon Suk-yeol, the current president of the Republic of Korea and Lee’s political opponent, is often associated nowadays. Lexical analysis of Lee Jae-myung&amp;apos;s message at the same time shows that the terminology was chosen incorrectly, which caused initial difficulties for the audience in its “deciphering”. Acknowledgements: The author of the article expresses her gratitude to Andrei V. Zagorulko, PhD in History, Associate Professor of the Russian State University for the Humanities, for the discussion that prompted this study.

Do you believe in prophecies? Self-fulfilling prophecies in nurses: A descriptive qualitative study

Purpose. The study aims at revealing the role and meaning of perceived leader expectations and beliefs in nurses’ high performance. Study design. This qualitative descriptive study included ten nurses and two supervisors who were selected using purposive sampling technique and theirs two supervisors. Data were collected by semi-structured interviewing and evaluated using content analysis. Findings. The data revealed four themes of the Pygmalion effect on nurses’ performance, and these themes represented four consecutive steps of the pygmalion effect. These themes stated as the “Pygmalion process” were conceptualized as 1) formation, 2) transmission, 3) perception and internalization, 4) reflection, respectively. Leaders’ expectations about nurses’ performance and success, and their beliefs about nurses’ abilities were found to be important for nurses. When these beliefs and expectations were perceived by nurses, they resulted in high performance. Nurses, who perceived positive expectations conveyed by leaders through different channels, had the tendency to respond to these expectations with high performance. This expectation effect emerged within a four-stage process, and this process included the emergence of the expectation which was formed before the first impression, and the steps of a complex process transmitted through many verbal, nonverbal, formal and informal communication channels. Research limitations. the small number of participants in the study can be considered as the first limitation. The sample size should be increased with more participants (study groups) to develop more comprehensive understanding with future studies. Since the data of the study is based on selfreports, possible response bias can be considered as another potential risk, and this situation was tried to be overcome by interviewing the head nurses as well as the nurses. Considering that positive leader expectations can be an antecedent to different positive organizational outcomes as some other recent studies showed, searching for the relationship of the Pygmalion effect with different outcomeswill contribute to the literature. This study conducted with the nurses examines the Pygmalion effect of the leaders’ positive expectation. For future studies, holistic research can be carried out by choosing healthcare employees using the expectation effect, and other versions such as Galateas and Golem. Value of the results. This is a qualitative study on the relationship between perceived leader expectations and beliefs in nurses’ high performance by evaluating the role of Pygmalion effect.

FROM TEACHERS’ BELIEFS ABOUT GIFTED STUDENTS TO POSITIVE EDUCATION OF THE GIFTED

This paper examines two important topics relevant to the field of positive education: a) intellectual giftedness as one of the inherently positive characteristics of students and b) teachers’ beliefs about gifted students. Teachers are considered to be representatives of educational institutions whose role is to contribute to the development of positive characteristics and enable positive subjective experiences of all students. Positive education relies on students’ cognitive and non-cognitive strengths and tends to contribute to their academic achievement and well-being. An important prerequisite for positive education of gifted students is that teachers understand their characteristics and educational needs. Teachers who do not understand intellectually gifted students’ characteristics can contribute to their academic underachievement and dissatisfaction in the educational context, mainly due to the phenomenon of self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper, research findings regarding teachers’ beliefs about non-cognitive characteristics of gifted students, their status in the peer group and the nature of student–teacher relationship are being compared with the findings of previous empirical research studies which investigated gifted students’ personality traits and their actual relationships. The comparison indicates that teachers’ assessments regarding certain personality dimensions are accurate – when they perceive gifted students as more open to experiences, equally conscientious and less agree- able than typical students. In contrast, teachers mistakenly attribute elevated neuroticism and introversion to the gifted, which is inconsistent with the well-established research findings about the personality traits of gifted students. Findings on the perception of gifted students’ elationships with typical peers and teachers also indicate that they are perceived as maladjusted and having socio-emotional issues. This perception might be due to gifted students’ negative reactions to inappropriate educational settings and teachers’ misinterpretation of these reactions. It is also possible that certain characteristics, which are more often present in gifted students – more pronounced assertiveness, less pronounced gregariousness, as well as lower scores on the facets of modesty, altruism, tender-mindedness and lower agreeableness in general – are negatively interpreted and perceived as undesirable. We argue that teachers should modify their peceptions ‒ instead of considering giftedness as vulnerability they should consider it as a resource. This would contribute to teachers’ competencies for positive education of gifted students including their cognitive and socio-emotional development. Besides, it would possibly increase the likelihood of the gifted students’ satisfactory relationships with their teachers and thе overall more positive experience of education.