Secular Trends Research Articles

Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability

Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we present a TO definition based on a spatially cohesive and distinct region of tornado activity and present a TO intensity index using tornado characteristics within the TO region. In developing this index, we present a support vector regression-based detrending methodology to remove the secular trends within tornado reporting. The resulting TO definition suggests a decline in TO activity of roughly 1 TO per 4–5 years, with a similar decline in TO intensity. In addition, the relationship between this new quantification of TOs and common North American interannual and monthly climate variability indices is explored, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific North American Oscillation. In general, the links between these teleconnections and TO frequency and intensity were minimal (and sometimes in opposition when comparing TO frequency and intensity), but interesting patterns emerged that may offer an initial pathway to exploring longer-term TO predictability.

Salutary Reminiscing, Pathological Nostalgizing, and the Psychopolitics of Christian Nationalism

ABSTRACT In the psychology literature, nostalgizing is largely considered a handy coping skill centered on people recollecting past favorable memories to assuage present feelings of loneliness and personal insecurity. This approach fails to distinguish between recollecting fond memories for benign self-flourishing reasons, and malignant self-foreclosure ones. The former is better conceived of as salutary reminiscing – savoring old memories of a life well lived for purposes of holding hope alive that analogous self-affirming experiences can be agentically pursued in the present and future. The latter – pathological nostalgizing – pertains to overattachment to a sentimentalized past that is felt to be superior to anything obtainable in the present and future. Its psychological underpinnings often involve parental idealization and thwarted grief. This article explores these themes and details how a depth-psychological perspective on nostalgia is pivotal for any robust psychosocial understanding of the allure of the Christian Nationalist Movement and its authoritarian spokespersons. Conservatively minded citizens who feel marginalized and psychologically undone by techno-modernist social transformations and secular trends can easily fall prey to nostalgic rhetoric by demagogic leaders of an enchanted past where traditional social order and moral correctness prevailed.

A Hydrochemical Method for Identifying Orbital Imprints of Dust in Paleofluvial Sequences

AbstractMineral dust plays an important role in Earth's climate system, yet it is difficult to identify dust imprints in paleofluvial sediments, especially on orbital timescales. Here, we present high‐resolution authigenic carbonate Ca–Mg–Sr compositions in a fluvial sequence under the transport pathway of Asian dust. The Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Mg/Sr ratios exhibit distinct transitions in both secular trends and orbital cycles at ∼8 Ma. Before ∼8 Ma, given similar Mg and Sr partitioning behaviors during carbonate formation, hydroclimate changes yielded strong orbital signals in the Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios but no detectable signals in the Mg/Sr ratios. After ∼8 Ma, given the strengthened input of Mg‐rich dust during cold‒dry periods, the Mg/Sr and Mg/Ca ratios clearly exhibited orbital signals, but the Sr/Ca ratio did not. Such transitions in carbonate composition corroborate the dust‐induced changes in fluvial hydrochemistry, offering an innovative methodology for detecting orbital dust cycles in paleofluvial systems.

Hospitalizations for hip and non-hip osteoporotic fractures in Belgium: nationwide trends between 2010 and 2021.

The secular trends of hospitalizations for hip and other osteoporotic fractures between 2010 and 2021 in patients aged 50years and over in Belgium are unknown. This study aimed to describe the incidence of hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures in patients aged 50years and over in Belgium between 2010 and 2021. Population-based, retrospective study based on hospitalization data extracted by the national database NIHDI and demographical data retrieved from the Belgian Federal Bureau for Statistics. Data were combined to determine the crude and age-standardized hospitalization incidence of fractures of the hip, distal femur, pelvis, humerus, wrist, and spine (2010 as the reference year). A total of 445,234 hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures were reported between 2010 and 2021 (excluding 2015). Hospitalizations increased by 5.8% between 2010 and 2021 (p = 0.013) with a higher increase in men (12.1%; p = 0.001) compared to women (4.1%; p = 0.041). The crude incidence of hospitalizations for all fractures per 100,000 persons per year decreased from 990 to 910 between 2010 and 2021 (p = 0.572). The age-standardized incidence for hospitalizations of any osteoporotic fracture in men declined from 5.30/1,000 to 4.42/1,000 (p = 0.010). In women, a similar decrease was observed (13.84/1,000 to 11.62/1,000; p = 0.003). Both age-standardized hospitalizations for hip and non-hip fractures showed a decrease in both sexes. Although a declining trend in the crude incidence per 100,000 and in the age-adjusted incidence of hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures was observed, the absolute number of hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures increased due to the demographic change of an ageing population.

Secular Contrasts in Physical Fitness and Athletic Skills in Japanese Elementary School Students (11-Year-Olds).

Since 1964, Japan has been conducting a wide fitness and athletic skills evaluation among 2000-3000 school children. This study used data made public by the Japan Sports Agency from four events that have continuously been evaluated from 1964 to 2021-grip strength, 50 meter dash, repetitive side jumps, and softball throw-to depict a secular trend over the course of 58 years. This is to statistically categorize these into generations, establishing secular contrast by identifying high and low scores for each event within the categorized generations, with the intent to examine the factors embedded within the background. The generations that had the highest average across all four events were the measurements made in 1970-1993 for males and in 1972-1994 for females. Changes made to the curriculum guidelines may have played a role in the differences found within each event. The goal of physical education and its syllabus and assigned hours in the curriculum guidelines are revised approximately every 10 years to meet social demand. Changes in the social and living environments surrounding children may be exhibited in the form of secular contrast in the measured physical fitness and athletic skills.

Obstetric anal sphincter injuries during instrumental vaginal delivery: An observational study based on 18-years of real-world data.

To determine the prevalence and secular trends of obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS) in vacuum and forceps deliveries in Norway, both with and without episiotomy. Population-based real-world data collected during 2001-2018. Medical Birth Registry Norway. Nulliparous women with singleton foetuses in a cephalic presentation delivered by either vacuum or forceps (n = 70 783). Logistic regression analyses were applied to the OASIS prevalence in six 3-year time periods. Both crude odds ratios and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined. OASIS prevalence. The OASIS prevalence in vacuum and forceps deliveries decreased from 14.8% during 2001-2003 to 5.2% during 2016-2018. The overall reduction between the first and last 3-year time period was 61% (aOR = 0.39, 95% CIs = 0.35-0.43). The only exception to this decreasing trend in OASIS was found in forceps deliveries performed without an episiotomy. The OASIS prevalence was approximately twofold higher in forceps compared to vacuum deliveries (aOR = 1.92, 95% CIs = 1.79-2.05). Performing either a mediolateral or lateral episiotomy was associated with a 45% decrease in the prevalence of OASIS relative to no episiotomy (aOR = 0.55, 95% CIs = 0.52-0.58). Opting for vacuum rather than forceps delivery in conjunction with a mediolateral or lateral episiotomy could significantly lower the OASIS prevalence in nulliparous women.

Sex ratio at birth across 100 years in Sweden and risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality – a national register study

The human sex ratio at birth (SRB) undergoes temporary changes around a mean proportion of 0.51 male births. SRB has been well studied for historical, geographical, and secular trends, but until now not linked to health outcomes in the total population, e.g. for cardiovascular disease (CVD) or mortality during follow-up of birth cohorts. We used linkage analysis based on national registers in Sweden that cover all births from 1900 to 2016. SRB at birth was calculated by every 10-year birth cohort in all survivors living in 1997 for a follow-up analysis of risk of CVD and mortality with data from national registers. When the highest quartile of SRB was used as reference, a slightly increased risk of fatal CVD (HR 1.03 (95% confidence intervals, CI): 1.02–1.04), non-fatal CVD (HR 1.01; 95%CI: 1.01–1.02) and mortality (HR 1.02; 95%CI, 1.01–1.03) was found after full adjustments in men belonging to the lowest SRB quartile. A similar pattern was also found for fatal CHD in women. in the lowest SBR quartile compared to the highest, HR 1.03 (95%CI: 1.02–1.05). In conclusion, in birth cohorts with a relatively lower than expected number of males born, long-term adverse health effects were observed with slightly increased cardiovascular risk and total mortality at the population level. This could indicate that men belonging to so-called “culled cohorts” in a developed country during the 20th century are characterized by a slightly increased risk that could reflect negative early life influences and environmental exposures in pregnant women resulting in selective loss of male embryos or fetuses. In a public health perspective SRB could be of some importance to monitor as an aspect of birth statistics linked to relatively minor population health effects.

The increasingly dominant role of climate change on length of day variations

The melting of ice sheets and global glaciers results in sea-level rise, a pole-to-equator mass transport increasing Earth's oblateness and resulting in an increase in the length of day (LOD). Here, we use observations and reconstructions of mass variations at the Earth's surface since 1900 to show that the climate-induced LOD trend hovered between 0.3 and 1.0 ms/cy in the 20th century, but has accelerated to 1.33 [Formula: see text] 0.03 ms/cy since 2000. We further show that surface mass transport fully explains the accelerating trend in the Earth oblateness observed in the past three decades. We derive an independent measure of the decreasing LOD trend induced by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) of [Formula: see text]0.80 [Formula: see text] 0.10 ms/cy, which provides a constraint for the mantle viscosity. The sum of this GIA rate and lunar tidal friction fully explains the secular LOD trend that is inferred from the eclipse record in the past three millennia prior to the onset of contemporary climate change. Projections of future climate warming under high emission scenarios suggest that the climate-induced LOD rate may reach 2.62 [Formula: see text] 0.79 ms/cy by 2100, overtaking lunar tidal friction as the single most important contributor to the long-term LOD variations.

THEMATIC FUNDS – PROFITABLE INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVE FOR SMART INVESTORS IN STOCK MARKETS

One of the main characteristics of the stock market is its dynamic nature and its consistent variation to factorize all future events affecting the economy and business entities within the country as well as outside the country. Volatility in the stock market is appreciated by aggressive investors who wish to earn high returns in comparison to the other traditional investment alternatives available in the financial market. As high return follows from high risk, one is always advised to exercise all kinds of caution before investing in stocks of the company. But the pace at which returns are generated, sometimes even during a short span, tempts one to forget all do's and don'ts and get carried away with the trend. It is during this euphoric state that one fails to distinguish between good and bad and starts treating all sectors as well as companies equally. However, it has been observed that despite the secular upward trend of a market index, thematic indices may exhibit movement in significantly different directions. The present study has been conducted to examine the movement of thematic indices in comparison to broader market indices and therefore cautions investors against painting all sectors with the same brush during any given period. It also offers a good opportunity for fund managers to allocate their funds to the sectors that are likely to outperform the overall market index and at the same time challenge their ability to forecast sector-wise growth of the entire economy. Keeping in view these facts in the background, this study has been conducted using various statistical tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Levene Statistic, ANOVA, and Multiple Comparison Post Hoc tests to arrive at a meaningful interpretation.

Failure to Rescue After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Insights From the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

Failure to rescue (FTR) describes in-hospital mortality following a procedural complication and has been adopted as a quality metric in multiple specialties. However, FTR has not been studied for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) complications. This is a retrospective study of patients undergoing PCI from the American College of Cardiology National Cardiovascular Data Registry's CathPCI Registry between April 1, 2018, and June 30, 2021. PCI complications evaluated were significant coronary dissection, coronary artery perforation, vascular complication, significant bleeding within 48 hours, new cardiogenic shock, and tamponade. Secular trends for FTR were evaluated with descriptive analysis, and hospital-level variation and clinical predictors were analyzed with logistic regression. Among 2 196 661 patients undergoing PCI at 1483 hospitals, 3.5% had at least 1 PCI complication. In-hospital mortality occurred more frequently following a complication compared with cases without a complication (19.7% versus 1.3%). FTR increased during the study period from 17.1% to 20.1% (P<0.001). The median odds ratio for FTR was 1.48 (95% CI, 1.44-1.53) indicating significant hospital-level variation. Spearman rank correlation demonstrated the modest correlation between FTR and in-hospital mortality, 0.525 (P<0.001). Major procedural complications during PCI are infrequent, but FTR occurs in roughly 1 in 5 patients following a PCI procedural complication with significant hospital-level variation. Improved understanding of practices associated with low FTR could meaningfully improve patient outcomes following a PCI complication.

Trend in physical growth among Chinese urban students: Results from five national successive cross-sectional surveys within the past two decades.

To examine the orientation, magnitude, and pace of secular trends in body height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) among Chinese urban students aged 7-18 years from 2000 to 2019. Data were extracted from Chinese urban students aged 7-18 years from the Chinese National Surveillance on Students' Constitution and Health in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, and 2019. The height, weight, and BMI of 548 419, 548 408, and 548 365 urban students aged 7-18 years, respectively, were tested. The mean differences across survey years were tested by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The pace of secular trends is expressed as the change every 5 years between every two adjacent survey years. Height increments between 1.9 and 6.2 cm, weight increments between 2.7 and 8.6 kg, and BMI increments between 0.9 and 1.9 kg/m2 were observed in boys. For girls, height increments between 1.5 and 4.9 cm, weight increments between 2.2 and 6.0 kg, and BMI increments between 0.7 and 1.7 kg/m2 were observed. The pace of secular trends in height decreased in the last 5 years, and the secular trends in weight and BMI have accelerated in the last 9 years compared with the previous 10 years. Although the secular trend in height among Chinese urban students has slowed, it has not yet reached its genetic potential and continues to increase. The rapid increase in weight and BMI was a cause for concern. Our findings provide a basis for the future formulation of public health interventions in China.

Secular trends in anthropometric characteristics and their associations with external skeletal robustness among Slovenian young adults’ population

Objectives: To determine secular trends in body height, fat-mass, fat-free mass, and external skeletal robustness in young adults and examine possible relationship between them. Methods: Anthropometric data (body height, body mass; skinfold thickness (SFT) – triceps, abdominal, thigh; circumferences (C) – waist, upper arm, thigh; width – elbow, knee) of young adults aged 20-25 years (N = 5303; males 1985, females 3318) were used from the Slovenian (data)Base of Anthropometric Measurements from 1960 to 2023. Multiple linear regressions were performed. Results: The most significant positive secular trends (p &lt; 0.000) were observed in males for abdominal SFT (B = 0.151, R2 = 0.169) and thigh SFT (B = 0.131, R2 = 0.142). In females, similar trend was observed in waist C (B = 0.151; R2 = 0.169). The most significant negative secular trend (p &lt; 0.001) was observed in muscle area of lower limbs in both sexes (males: B = - 0.427, R2 = 0.000; females: B = - 0.875, R2 = 0.300). Body height and overall body mass were the most important factors influencing the observed decline in external skeletal robustness assessed with frame index according to elbow and knee width according to multiple linear regression. Conclusion: Over the last 60 years, a positive secular trend was observed in body height and body fat, while a negative trend was noted in muscle mass. Increases in body height and overall body mass had the most significant impact on the observed decrease in assessed external skeletal robustness over time.

Temporal evolution of suicide by levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or over between 2009 and 2022

PurposePrevious studies have reported that levels of rurality and deprivation are factors associated with suicide risk. Reports on the association between rurality, deprivation and suicide incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic are scarce. The study aims to investigate how suicide rates evolved in areas with different levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older between 2009 and 2022.MethodsThis study used population density in 2020 as an indicator of rurality and per capita prefectural income in 2019 as a proxy for deprivation in Japan’s 47 prefectures. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to analyze secular trends in suicide rates by rurality and deprivation.ResultsSuicide rates for both men and women at different levels of rurality and deprivation remained roughly parallel during the research period. Suicide rates for men and women at all levels of rurality and deprivation were on a downward trend until around 2019, just before the onset of the pandemic. Following this, suicide rates in women showed a clear upward trend, while the trend in suicide rates for men also changed around 2019, with a slightly increasing or flat trend thereafter. Changes in suicide rates were greater among women and those aged 20–59 years.ConclusionsIn Japan, time trends in suicide rates for both men and women have changed before and after the pandemic, but levels of rurality and deprivation across the 47 prefectures do not appear to have contributed much to these changes.

Contributions of core, mantle and climatological processes to Earth’s polar motion

Earth’s spin axis slowly moves relative to the crust over time. A 120-year-long record of this polar motion from astronomical and more modern geodetic measurements displays interannual and multidecadal fluctuations of 20 to 40 milliarcseconds superimposed on a secular trend of about 3 milliarcseconds per year. Earth’s polar motion is thought to be driven by various surface and interior processes, but how these processes operate and interact to produce the observed signal remains enigmatic. Here we show that predictions made by an ensemble of physics-informed neural networks trained on measurements to capture geophysical processes can explain the main features of the observed polar motion. We find that glacial isostatic adjustment and mantle convection primarily account for the secular trend. Mass redistribution on the Earth’s surface—for example, ice melting and global changes in water storage—yields a relatively weak trend but explains about 90% of the interannual and multidecadal variations. We also find that core processes contribute to both the secular trend and fluctuations in polar motion, either due to variations in torque at the core–mantle boundary or dynamical feedback of the core in response to surface mass changes. Our findings provide constraints on core–mantle interactions for which observations are rare and global ice mass balance over the past century and suggest feedback operating between climate-related surface processes and core dynamics.

Secular Trends in Body Composition, BMI, and Body Weight Among US Adults 20-59y

Secular Trends in Body Composition, BMI, and Body Weight Among US Adults 20-59y

One Month Longer, One Month Later? Prepayments in the Auto Loan Market

We document a secular trend of increasing auto loan maturity from 30 months to over 70 months during the past 50 years, partly reflecting improved vehicle durability. Analyzing over half of the auto loans originated during the past 16 years, we find that longer-maturity new car loans have significantly higher interest rates with a yield curve much steeper than comparable-maturity Treasury securities. In addition, we show that the majority of auto loans were prepaid, including loans of zero-interest, and that many prepaying borrowers could have paid less interest by choosing loans of a shorter maturity. We argue that factors such as liquidity constraints, uncertainty about future income, and monthly payment targeting likely account for only a portion of borrowers' choice of long-maturity loans.

The Appamāda as a Foundation for Ethical and Spiritual Development in Modern Mindfulness Practices

This research explores Appamāda as a mindfulness concept with strong ethical and spiritual foundations rooted in Buddhist teachings. The study investigates how integrating Appamāda can enhance modern mindfulness practices, particularly addressing the moral and ethical dimensions often overlooked in secular mindfulness trends. The research utilizes a qualitative approach through library research, gathering data from primary sources such as the Sutta Piṭaka and commentaries and secondary sources from scholarly works on Appamāda. Content analysis examines how Appamāda functions as a foundation for moral and spiritual development within Buddhist teachings and how it can be integrated into contemporary mindfulness practices. The research identifies Appamāda as not merely mindfulness but a profound ethical framework that fosters the cultivation of wholesome qualities and moral awareness. It highlights the gap in modern mindfulness practices, which focus on psychological benefits like stress reduction but often neglect ethical self-awareness. Appamāda enriches mindfulness by incorporating ethical and spiritual elements, guiding individuals towards holistic personal development and liberation from suffering. Integrating Appamāda into modern mindfulness practices offers a more holistic approach to mental and spiritual well-being. It addresses the ethical responsibility that contemporary secular mindfulness lacks, contributing to developing a balanced and ethically conscious mindfulness practice. This has implications for mental health, ethical behavior, and spiritual growth in modern contexts. This study contributes to the growing body of research on mindfulness by reconnecting contemporary practices with their ethical and spiritual roots in Appamāda. It offers a new perspective on mindfulness that extends beyond emotional regulation to include moral development and ethical accountability, providing a comprehensive framework for holistic well-being.

The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes among the youth in southern India-An ancillary analysis of the Secular TRends in DiabEtes in India (STRiDE-I) study.

We studied the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and its associated risk factors in younger (20 and 39 years) and older individuals (≥40 years) over a 10-year period. Epidemiological surveys in 2006 (n = 7066) and 2016 (n = 9848) were conducted in similar urban and rural locations of southern India among people aged ≥20 years. Diagnosis of T2DM was made using World Health Organization criteria. Self-reported diabetes was verified from medical records. Age and gender standardized prevalence and incidence rates, percentage change in obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia were calculated. Prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated using Poisson regression analyses. Primary study was registered on www. gov. Identifier: NCT03490136. In 10 years, the prevalence of T2DM increased in younger (7.8% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.0001) and older individuals (34% vs. 28.4%, p < 0.0001). After adjusting for age, family history of diabetes, and waist circumference, younger individuals showed a higher percentage increase in prevalence than the older group (PR = 1.36 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.62], p = 0.001) versus (PR = 1.11 [95% CI, 1.02-1.20], p = 0.02). Increase in rates of obesity and dyslipidemia was also higher in the younger than in the older individuals. In 10 years, incidence of T2DM increased by 120% (1.1% vs. 0.5%, p < 0.0001) and 150% (5% vs. 2%, p < 0.0001) in the younger and older individuals, respectively. Higher percentage increase in prevalence of T2DM was seen among younger individuals over a 10-year period. Obesity and family history of diabetes were shown to be the primary contributing factors for the rise in prevalence.

EPH207 Assessing Secular Trends in Cancer Stage at Initial Diagnosis in the United States Community Oncology Setting from 2015 to 2023

EPH207 Assessing Secular Trends in Cancer Stage at Initial Diagnosis in the United States Community Oncology Setting from 2015 to 2023

Secular trend of Kawasaki disease and its correlation with viral activity in Taiwan: a nationwide population-based study

BackgroundKawasaki disease (KD) is the most important acquired heart disease in children. This study investigated annual incidence, seasonality, secular trend and the correlation of KD incidence with viral activity in Taiwan.MethodsThrough the national health insurance database, we identified KD during 2001–2020. The viral activity was obtained from nationwide surveillance database. We analyzed KD age-specific annual incidence, secular trends, seasonality and the correlation between KD incidence and common enteric or respiratory viral activity.ResultsThe KD incidence of subjects younger than 18 years significantly increased from 2001 to 2020 (11.78 and 22.40 per 100,000 person-years, respectively), and substantially decreased with age. Infants younger than 1 year presented the highest KD annual incidence at 105.82 to 164.34 per 100,000 person-years from 2001 to 2020. For all KD patients, the most frequently occurring season was summer followed by autumn. The KD incidence of infants younger than 1 year had significantly positive correlation with enteric (r = 0.14) and respiratory (r = 0.18) viral activity.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates the increasing trend of KD annual incidence and seasonality (more in summer and autumn) in Taiwan. The activity of common respiratory and enteric viruses was significantly correlated with KD incidence in infants.