Seasonal Weather Variations Research Articles

Suction-based model for predicting cyclic and transient volume changes in expansive clays using a material property function

This research develops a framework for determining cyclic and transient volume changes in unsaturated expansive clays using suction-based modeling. A governing equation along with a coefficient of swell-shrink was developed with soil suction as the driving state variable. This soil property function was determined from laboratory tests using new sigmoidal formulations for the e-based water retention curve and the S-shaped swell-shrink curve along with the hydraulic conductivity curve. The model comprises of two components (soil-atmosphere and volume change) and couples material properties with climate data. Daily suction values were applied at the top boundary whereas transient swell-shrink, hydraulic conductivity curve, and time-dependent suction difference were used to obtain the velocity of an automatically refined moving mesh. Vertical deformations due to variation in soil suction were obtained from the governing equation using the coefficient of swell-shrink. Results indicated that the model adequately captures seasonal weather variations with respect to time and corroborates well with field monitoring data. This means that the model is useful in estimating total, cyclic, and transient heave and settlement in expansive clays.

Exploring Owner Perceptions of the Impacts of Seasonal Weather Variations on Canine Activity and Potential Consequences for Human-Canine Relationships.

Climate change is leading to more instances of seasonal weather variation. Studies have explored the impact of adverse winter weather on dog walking, but the impact on the dog's overall activity levels have not been previously considered. This study explored dog owner perceptions of the effects of both summer and winter weather on their dog's activity levels. An international online survey recruited 3153 respondents between May and December 2018, to explore the impact of summer and winter weather conditions on baseline activity levels. Owners reported their dogs were more impacted by cold (48.2% less likely to exercise their dog in the cold) and ice (64.0% less likely), than rain (25.3% were less likely). In hot weather, over 80% of owners reported reduced exercise duration and vigour for their dogs. Carrying water or walking near water to facilitate activity in the summer was the most popular mitigation strategy (90.8%). Participation in dog sports appeared to reduce the impact of winter weather on canine activity and increase owner awareness of cooling strategies to facilitate summer activity. Strategies to promote safe activity participation are needed to maintain canine activity levels amidst rising global temperatures, including better understanding of cooling strategies for exercising dogs.

Year-Round Cultivation of Tetraselmis sp. for Essential Lipid Production in a Semi-Open Raceway System

There is increasing demand for essential fatty acids (EFAs) from non-fish sources such as microalgae, which are considered a renewable and sustainable biomass. The open raceway system (ORS) is an affordable system for microalgae biomass cultivation for industrial applications. However, seasonal variations in weather can affect biomass productivity and the quality of microalgal biomass. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility of year-round Tetraselmis sp. cultivation in a semi-ORS in Korea for biomass and bioactive lipid production. To maximize biomass productivity of Tetraselmis sp., f medium was selected because it resulted in a significantly higher biomass productivity (1.64 ± 0.03 g/L) and lower omega-6/omega-3 ratio (0.52/1) under laboratory conditions than f/2 medium (0.70/1). Then, we used climatic data-based building information modeling technology to construct a pilot plant of six semi-ORSs for controlling culture conditions, each with a culture volume of 40,000 L. Over 1 year, there were no significant variations in monthly biomass productivity, fatty acid composition, or the omega-6/omega-3 ratio; however, the lipid content correlated significantly with photosynthetic photon flux density. During year-round cultivation from November 2014 to October 2017, areal productivity was gradually increased by increasing medium salinity and injecting CO2 gas into the culture medium. Productivity peaked at 44.01 g/m2/d in October 2017. Throughout the trials, there were no significant differences in average lipid content, which was 14.88 ± 1.26%, 14.73 ± 2.44%, 12.81 ± 2.82%, and 13.63 ± 3.42% in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. Our results demonstrated that high biomass productivity and constant lipid content can be sustainably maintained under Korean climate conditions.

Farm-scale phosphorus budgets of beef cow-calf operations

Beef cattle production in Florida consists of extensively managed cow-calf operations where animals are stocked on native and planted pastures with minimal P inputs. Despite the extensive literature documenting multiple benefits of cow-calf systems, concerns exist regarding their negative impacts on water quality, especially P in ecologically sensitive areas. This study evaluated farm-to-gate P balance for two cow-calf operations [a 3159-ha section of Archbold’s Buck Island Ranch (BIR) and the 1170 ha University of Florida Range Cattle Research and Education Center (RCREC)] both managed using typical regional practices. Mean annual P inputs were 2.4 and 2.1 kg P ha−1 yr−1 in BIR and RCREC, respectively, with animal feed being the single largest source of P imported (71% and 42% of total P inputs in BIR and RCREC, respectively). Total P outputs were similar for both operations (~ 1.9 kg P ha−1 yr−1) and was mostly (77%) from sold animals. Estimated P balance was nearly balanced for both RCREC and BIR (0.3 and 0.5 kg P ha−1 yr−1, respectively), largely as a result of significant reductions in fertilizer inputs from earlier years. The relatively high enterprise efficiency (proportion of P outputs in animal product relative to P inputs; 81 to 97%) suggested that typical cow-calf operations as those evaluated in this study represent an environmentally sustainable land management. Although improving nutrient efficiency is an important goal for sustainable agriculture, achieving neutral balance may be unrealistic in low-input systems that are largely affected by seasonal variations in weather and soil legacy P effects.

Exergy-efficient boundary and design guidelines for atmospheric water harvesters with nano-porous sorbents

Atmospheric water harvesting (AWH) is now anticipated as a prospective solution to the current shortage of fresh water. The prevailing cooling-based (CB) strategy is proven inefficient in arid region where fresh water supply is more urgent. Based on the humidity enrichment nature of nano-porous sorbents, sorption-based AWH is proposed to fill this niche. Preliminary studies in this field focus mainly on system implementation under low-humidity conditions, rather than energy-conservation design and optimization due to the lack of relevant guidelines, leading to several energy-intensive prototypes and a misconception that the sorption-based technology is inherently energy-consuming. To break former stereotype, this work proposes a robust method of energy assessment, identifies clear scope of application for AWH technologies, as well as outlines materials and operational parameters choice guidelines. It is concluded that active sorption-based AWHs are not only the supplement of the cooling-based AWHs under arid weather, but also the efficient substitution except in tropical coastal region. Unexpectedly, the employment of adsorption cooling source can largely reduce the energy burden and weaken the demand for materials, while the one in condensation side imposes subtle influence. Considering the diurnal or seasonal weather variation in most areas, traditional sorbents with moderate stepwise position or linear isotherms might outperform the prevailing materials with early stepwise position. These findings provide new insights into the design of AWH technologies.

Nestling diet and parental food provisioning in a declining mountain passerine reveal high sensitivity to climate change

Mountain ecosystems naturally experience strong seasonal weather variations leading to a brief peak in food availability that constrains bird reproduction. Climate change accentuates both the intra‐ and interannual weather variability, which in turn can reduce the predictability of food resources and hence impact population demography. Yet, relatively little is known about the influence of environmental factors on the breeding ecology of mountain birds. Here, we quantified the nestling diet and provisioning behaviour of the Alpine ring ouzel Turdus torquatus alpestris, an emblematic and declining thrush species typical of central European treeline ecotones, and relate these parameters to local weather conditions. Nests were monitored with camcorders to assess prey provisioning frequency and identify items delivered by parents to nestlings, as well as to estimate prey biomass. Our results indicate the prominence of earthworms (Lumbricidae) in the nestling diet, both in terms of abundance (80%) and biomass (90%). Elevated ambient temperatures negatively impacted both prey provisioning rates and biomass delivered to chicks by parents, while rainfall had a positive effect on the delivered biomass. The mean prey item biomass decreased throughout the breeding season, as did the proportion of earthworms in nestlings' diet. These findings highlight the key role played by local weather in parental provisioning behaviour, probably reflecting the low availability of the staple food source, earthworms, in warm and dry weather contexts. In particular, they underpin how climate alterations, notably increasing ambient temperatures and changing precipitation regimes, could impact mountain birds. Although effects on reproductive performance and population dynamics still ought to be studied, these results further our understanding of the ecological mechanisms potentially at play in the decline of wildlife inhabiting high‐elevation, climate‐sensitive ecosystems.

On Vivid Manifestations of Perigean Spring Tides in the Atmosphere

Perigean spring tides in the atmosphere are discussed. In 2016–2017, the smoothed anomalies of air temperature over European Russia were found to repeat the evolution of the distance of the perigee (i.e., the distance between the Moon and the Earth at times when the former is at the perigee), which varies as a sine function with a period of about 206 days. The origin of the 206-day lunar cycle is described. Atmospheric spring tides are studied. They are exhibited as atmospheric pressure oscillations similar to perigean spring oscillations of the sea level. The basic dependence of perigean spring tides in the form of beats of atmospheric pressure anomalies at new and full moons is found. The pressure anomalies at full and new moons can be approximated by sinusoids with beat envelope periods of about 412 days and with opposite phases. The range of oscillations at antinodes reaches 40 mb, which is comparable, in order of magnitude, with actual mesoscale fluctuations of atmospheric pressure. The violations in seasonal weather variation caused by the 206-day lunar cycle are described.

Modeling the Impact of Seasonal Weather Variations on the Infectiology of Brucellosis.

A deterministic mathematical model for brucellosis that incorporates seasonality on direct and indirect transmission parameters for domestic ruminants, wild animals, humans, and the environment was formulated and analyzed in this paper. Both analytical and numerical simulations are presented. From this study, the findings show that variations in seasonal weather have the great impact on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis in humans, livestock, and wild animals. Thus, in order for the disease to be controlled or eliminated, measures should be timely implemented upon the fluctuation in the transmission of the disease.

Modeling Seasonal Variation in Urban Weather in Sub-Tropical Region of Delhi

Complexity and heterogeneity of urban areas lead to difficulty in urban weather simulations and climate modeling. Diversity and size of urban areas necessitate to downscale global climate models to urban scale (~ hundreds of meters) and to enhance urban parameterization in the models to realistically simulate urban weather conditions. Hence, in this study, a methodology has been developed to generate multi-class urban land use land cover (LULC) by employing Resourcesat-2 LISS IV data. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model which is also a mesoscale numerical weather prediction and regional climate model was utilized to downscale the meteorological parameters up to 0.5 km grid resolution. Multi-class urban LULC prepared with improved urban parameters and updated Land Surface Parameters (LSPs) was ingested in model for Delhi to evaluate the model performance in three dominant seasons, i.e., summer, monsoon and winter. Evaluation of model performance with ground observation data revealed that multi-class urban LULC along with updated LSPs provided improved RMSE values of 2.31° C, 1.79 m/s and 0.94 mbar as compared to ingestion of multi-class urban LULC only (RMSE values of 3.42° C, 3.72 m/s and 1.58 mbar) for temperature at 2 m, wind speed and surface pressure, respectively. Temperature is found to be highest in summer season (38.58° C) and lowest in winter season while relative humidity is highest in monsoon season (~ 88%) and lowest in summer season (~ 30%). The study highlights the importance of ingestion of updated LSPs along with updated multi-class urban LULC for enhanced model performance.

Ford Multi-AV Seasonal Dataset

This article presents a challenging multi-agent seasonal dataset collected by a fleet of Ford autonomous vehicles (AVs) at different days and times during 2017–2018. The vehicles traversed an average route of 66 km in Michigan that included a mix of driving scenarios such as the Detroit airport, freeways, city centers, university campus, and suburban neighborhoods. Each vehicle used in this data collection was a Ford Fusion outfitted with an Applanix POS-LV GNSS/INS system, four HDL-32E Velodyne 3D-lidar scanners, six Point Grey 1.3 MP cameras arranged on the rooftop for 360° coverage, and one Point Grey 5 MP camera mounted behind the windshield for the forward field of view. We present the seasonal variation in weather, lighting, construction, and traffic conditions experienced in dynamic urban environments. We also include data from multiple AVs that were driven in close proximity. This dataset can help design robust algorithms for AVs and multi-agent systems. Each log in the dataset is time-stamped and contains raw data from all the sensors, calibration values, pose trajectory, ground-truth pose, and 3D maps. All data is available in rosbag format that can be visualized, modified, and applied using the open-source Robot Operating System (ROS). We also provide the output of reflectivity-based localization for bench-marking purposes. The dataset can be freely downloaded at avdata.ford.com.

Seasonal variations in Nigeria: understanding COVID-19 transmission dynamics and immune responses

There is a global rise in the emergence of infectious diseases and the enigmatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) being the most recent one. It is ravaging the world with little understanding of its etiology and factors affecting its transmission dynamics. Meanwhile, seasonal variations in weather are major factors impacting infectious disease transmission patterns. Developing countries are likely to be most affected by weather changes that could impact on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In Nigeria, weather conditions alternate between rainy and dry seasons. Conditions such as rainfall, humidity and sunlight had been reported to influence host susceptibility to infectious diseases. On the other hand, these weather elements have a direct or indirect impact on the level of vitamin D availability. More so, vitamin C and D supplementation were highlighted to enhance immunity in COVID-19 patients. Thus, understanding the impact of weather changes in transmission dynamics and boosting immune response to COVID-19 through vitamin supplementation in infected patients may be crucial as the rainy season fully sets in.

Solar gasification of biomass in a dual fluidized bed

A new approach to conduct allothermal steam-gasification of biomass in a dual fluidized bed gasifier (DFBG), using concentrating solar energy and solid particles as thermal energy carrier and storage media, is presented. The advantage of this configuration is that the solar receiver and the reactor are uncoupled, while thermal integration is highly efficient since carrier particles are directly used in the reactor. A model of the proposed system is developed and used to theoretically analyze the performance of the solar DFBG (SDFBG) under various configurations. The circulation of solids and the solar heat supply to the system are compared for different arrangements. The separation and storage of char is identified as a method to provide the system with significant flexibility. Moreover, the operation under daily and seasonal weather variations throughout the year is studied by the developed model coupled to a solar field using hourly data from a specific location. Overall, the results indicate the huge scale-up potential of this new solar gasification technology in the short to medium term. Major challenges for developing the technology are identified and discussed.

Contribution of cash transfers in moderating household food insecurity in small-island communities: Experimental evidence from Indonesia

Small-island communities often heavily rely on artisanal fisheries as a source of food and income. However, seasonal variation in weather and oceanographic conditions of the fisheries makes small-island communities prone to food insecurity. The paper aims to assess how a lump-sum cash transfer mitigates the experience of food insecurity among small-island fishing communities. We conducted an artefactual field experiment on cash transfers based on a sample of 534 fishing households in the Kei Islands of Eastern Indonesia. Food insecurity at household level was measured using the US Household Food Security Survey Module, which captures various aspects of the hunger experience among adults and children in the household. We found that a lump-sum cash transfer of Rp 17 thousand (USD 1.4) or 5% of weekly household expenditure resulted in a 2-point score reduction on the 15-item food insecurity scale. Our results also suggest that an additional weekly household income of Rp 234 thousand (USD 19) is required to entirely eliminate household food insecurity in the study area. This amount is significantly greater than the amount provided through the official cash transfer programs in Indonesia. Our findings indicate that cash transfers could be an effective means of reducing food insecurity problems among small-island communities in Indonesia. However, complete elimination of food insecurity through cash transfers alone is impractical.

The impact of seasonal weather variation on mycotoxins: maize crop in 2014 in northern Italy as a case study

The occurrence of mycotoxins differs greatly from year to year and this variation has been attributed to climate variability. The aim of this study was to consider the variability of fungal infection and mycotoxin contamination on a small geographic scale as a possible result of local weather conditions. The presence ofFusarium spp. andAspergillus spp. and their related mycotoxins was investigated in 51 maize fields grown in 2014 in the Emilia Romagna region, in northern Italy; information regarding the cropping system was collected for all the fields. Samples collected at harvest were analysed for fumonisins, aflatoxins and trichothecenes. Hourly meteorological data were collected from nine stations and fields were clustered with the stations based on the shortest distance principle.Fusarium spp. andAspergillus spp. incidence varied between 17.6-46.0% and 0.6-6.3%, respectively. Fumonisins ranged between 1,718 and 106,054 μg/kg and aflatoxin B1 between <limit of quantification and 93.8 μg/kg, with a wide variability also with short distanced fields. Deoxynivalenol was detected with a considerable incidence (59%), but only three samples exceeded 1,750 μg/kg. Therefore, climate variability and related uncertainties, commonly stressed on a large scale, are not only a matter for policymakers, but also for farmers facing every day the impact on fungi and mycotoxin occurrence.

Mapping Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus Vector Mosquito Distribution in Brownsville, TX.

Aedes mosquitoes are vectors of several emerging diseases and are spreading worldwide. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) mosquito trap captures in Brownsville, TX, using high-resolution land cover, socioeconomic, and meteorological data. We modeled mosquito trap counts using a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects model with spatially correlated residuals. The models indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito trap counts for both species, which may be due to the hot and arid climate of southern Texas. The temporal trend in mosquito populations indicated Ae. aegypti populations peaking in the late spring and Ae. albopictus reaching a maximum in winter. Our results indicated that seasonal weather variation, vegetation height, human population, and land cover determine which of the two Aedes species will predominate.

Analysis of road traffic crashes in the State of Qatar

Road traffic crashes (RTCs) are globally acknowledged as increasing threat to society, because they can affect many lives when they result in severe injury or fatality. In the State of Qatar RTCs are getting more awareness and attention, aiming to improve the traffic safety in the country. This study is an exploratory research providing different analyses of the crash data for seven consecutive years, ranging from 2010 to 2016, which is obtained from the Traffic Department in the Ministry of Interior for the State of Qatar. The objectives aim to evaluate the trend of RTC rate over time and create understanding of the influencing factors related to RTC frequency. Time series analyses show an increasing trend of RTCs leading to severe injury and a slight decreasing trend for fatal RTCs. Secondly, different RTC severity levels are related to diverse RTC causes. Furthermore, the results revealed that crashes with severe injuries or fatality for drivers as well as pedestrians are found to be significantly affected by seasonal weather variations, with the highest vulnerability in winter and autumn season. This study therefore suggests the implementation of strategies to prioritize the traffic safety of road users during the crash-prone winter and autumn seasons.

Impacts of Seasonal and Annual Weather Variations on Network-Level Pavement Performance

This study was aimed to determine the extent of association between network-level pavement condition and seasonal and annual weather variations. Pavement condition data recorded in the Texas Department of Transportation’s Pavement Management Information System (PMIS) database between 2000 and 2008 was highlighted. Meteorological data collected at different districts across the whole state were used in the explanatory variables. Dynamic panel data analysis was used in the deterioration models to quantify the effects of temperature and precipitation variations on pavement conditions. Based on the statistical implication from the model estimation results, significant correlations were identified between pavement conditions, the average monthly rainfall, and the average monthly temperature recorded 1 to 23 months prior to pavement condition inspection.

Contrasting controls on tree ring isotope variation for Amazon floodplain and terra firme trees.

Isotopes in tropical trees rings can improve our understanding of tree responses to climate. We assessed how climate and growing conditions affect tree-ring oxygen and carbon isotopes (δ18OTR and δ13CTR) in four Amazon trees. We analysed within-ring isotope variation for two terra firme (non-flooded) and two floodplain trees growing at sites with varying seasonality. We find distinct intra-annual patterns of δ18OTR and δ13CTR driven mostly by seasonal variation in weather and source water δ18O. Seasonal variation in isotopes was lowest for the tree growing under the wettest conditions. Tree ring cellulose isotope models based on existing theory reproduced well observed within-ring variation with possible contributions of both stomatal and mesophyll conductance to variation in δ13CTR. Climate analysis reveal that terra firme δ18OTR signals were related to basin-wide precipitation, indicating a source water δ18O influence, while floodplain trees recorded leaf enrichment effects related to local climate. Thus, intrinsically different processes (source water vs leaf enrichment) affect δ18OTR in the two different species analysed. These differences are likely a result of both species-specific traits and of the contrasting growing conditions in the floodplains and terra firme environments. Simultaneous analysis of δ13CTR and δ18OTR supports this interpretation as it shows strongly similar intra-annual patterns for both isotopes in the floodplain trees arising from a common control by leaf stomatal conductance, while terra firme trees showed less covariation between the two isotopes. Our results are interesting from a plant physiological perspective and have implications for climate reconstructions as trees record intrinsically different processes.

Insight into the Contrasting Findings of Therapeutic Trials of Digital Ischaemic Manifestations of Systemic Sclerosis

Digital vascular complications are a major cause of disease-related morbidity in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Demonstrating treatment efficacy in the management of cutaneous vascular manifestations of SSc has been challenging. The contrasting findings of clinical trials of Raynaud’s phenomenon (RP) and digital ulcers (DU) for within-class medications have led to doubt on likely efficacy; with geographic variation in reimbursement policies and variation in clinical practice. In this paper, we compare the contrasting trials of phosphodiesterase inhibitors in the management of SSc-RP and endothelin receptor antagonists in the management of SSc-DU to help identify potential barriers for future successful clinical trials in these fields. Scrutiny of the contrasting clinical trials in these fields has identified a number of important differences in trial design and patient characteristics that may account for differences in clinical trial outcomes. These factors include differences in patient selection, impact of seasonal variation in weather, and the definitions applied to SSc manifestations. The contrasting findings of clinical trials of within-class medications for the management of digital vascular manifestations of SSc have been disappointing but can provide investigators with valuable insight into treatment response in SSc and the pre-requisites for future effective clinical trial design.

Indicators of Oxic and Anoxic Conditions in the System of the Current Sedimentation of Saline Lake Shira (Khakassia), According to High-Resolution SR XRF Data on Bottom Sediments Frozen In Situ

Frozen upper layers of the bottom sediment of Lake Shira are selected using special sampling equipment. Frozen samples and solid samples prepared from the upper layers of a sediment core are examined by means of X-ray fluorescence at the Local and Scanning X-Ray Fluorescence Elemental Analysis Station of the Siberian Synchrotron and Terahertz Radiation Center’s Shared Resource Center. Analytical data on the initial frozen and processed solid samples demonstrate the good repeatability of the results. Quantitative estimates of the sedimentation regimes are obtained, and geochemical indicators of the change in redox conditions are determined from the analysis data. Lithological and geochemical records are synchronized with regional seasonal and annual variations in weather and climate, and with the hydrological regime of the lake for the last 50 years.