Seasonal Price Variation Research Articles

Seasonal price variation analysis of palm oil: case study of Nigeria (2016–2022)

To enhance the benefits derived from palm oil processing by the farmers, there is a need for the producers (farmers) and buyers of palm oil to understand the seasonal price for making informed decisions on when to buy and sell the commodity. In order to determine price at the appropriate time of the season, the study looked at the seasonal price variation analysis of palm oil and the relationship between producers and buyers. This was done by understanding buyers’ requirements, producers’ effort, measurements taken, and contracting with buyers’ credit from customers. A multiphase sampling strategy was used. Organized interviews and questionnaires were utilized to collect primary data, while the National Bureau of Statistics provided secondary time series data on the average monthly retail price of palm oil from 2016 to 2022. The need for bio-fuel, production growth, governmental regulations, market dynamics, and the seasonality of palm oil products are then identified by the study as important factors influencing palm oil price fluctuation throughout the year. The study then suggests that there’s a need for economic diversification to reduce reliance on a single sector. This study will serve as a basis for future research on palm oil price variation analysis.

Oil Palm in India: Market Arrivals and Price Movements

Oil palm is native to West Africa. It is one of nine major oils traded in the global edible oil. The study focuses on the trends in oil palm arrivals and market prices in India, particularly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states. There was a significant increase in annual oil palm arrivals from in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, with a percentage change of 92.43% and 84.83% respectively. This increase was statistically significant at a 10% level, R² values are 0.9243 and 0.8483 respectively. A linear trend analysis for prices of oil palm from 2010 to 2022 indicated a consistent rise in oil palm prices in both states, with Andhra Pradesh seeing an annual increase of 737.05 Rupees and Telangana 757.72 Rupees. The percentage change in prices was 59.18% and 66.08% respectively, with R² values of 0.5918 and 0.6608. Positive and significant correlation coefficient is observed in both the states. Seasonal variations in prices were also analyzed, highlighting that oil palm prices were typically drop after harvest it is influenced by peak harvesting periods and imports of crude oil from other countries. In Andhra Pradesh, the seasonal price index for oil palm Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFBs) was highest in May and April months, then decreased to a minimum level due to increase in the oil palm arrivals. Understanding these seasonal patterns is crucial for effective decision-making by farmers, traders, and policymakers.

An Analysis of Market Arrivals and Price Behavior of Coriander in Madhya Pradesh, India

The current research embarked on analysing wholesale prices of coriander in Madhya Pradesh spanning a decade from 2012-13 to 2021-22, sourced from specific A.P.M.Cs. The examination predominantly relied on secondary data regarding coriander arrivals and prices. Results uncovered a positive regression coefficient (β) correlated with time (T), indicating a consistent upward trend in wholesale coriander prices in Madhya Pradesh. Annual prices of coriander in Ashok Nagar, Guna, and Bhopal markets exhibited two cycles, one spanning 7 years and the other 2 years. Across all selected markets, a similar irregular fluctuation pattern observed in yearly coriander prices, lacking any distinct periodicity. Seasonal analysis revealed varying patterns in coriander prices across Bhopal, Ashok Nagar, and Guna markets, with no stable trend discernible. The Seasonal price variation of coriander in these markets was lowermost in January and remained relatively less throughout the sowing time. Coriander arrivals conspicuously dispersed more evenly in Bhopal market compared to the other two. In terms of IPR (Index of Price Relative), significant price variability was observed; with Guna market exhibiting the highest and Ashok Nagar market the lowest variability. Conversely, ASPV (Average Seasonal Price Variation) showed an inverse relationship with IPR, with Ashok Nagar market experiencing the maximum price variation among all selected markets.

Construction and application of milk-feed price ratio model - based on data from large scale dairy farms in China

Despite rapid development, the Chinese dairy industry still faces problems such as the lack of pricing power for dairy farmers, high fluctuations in raw milk and feed prices, imbalances between supply and demand, and low farming motivation. As an indicator with important geographical characteristics, the milk-feed price ratio (MF) is a critical reference indicator for setting raw milk prices and measuring farm profitability. The main aim of this study is to construct an appropriate milk-feed ratio model for China using statistical data for 2018-2020, which provides references for other developing countries. A vector error correction model was used to illustrate the long-term covariance between raw milk prices and feed prices in China and to analyze the feed structure of large-scale Chinese farms. The study found that the price weights of corn, soybean meal, corn silage, and alfalfa were 27%, 17%, 30%, and 26%, respectively, which are significantly different from those of developed countries, and the parameters of the model for the MF in different production areas in China also varied significantly. The milk-feed ratio in China has remained above 1.89 in the last three years. Seasonal variations in raw milk prices lead to a U-shaped trend in the MF. In recent years the MF in China has changed from a low level to a medium level, showing an upward trend, with large-scale farms at a profitable level.
 Keywords: Application of MF; Granger causality test; MF model; Large scale farm

Coming of Age: Renovation Premiums in Housing Markets

We rely on novel textual analysis of real estate listings and identify renovated dwellings in a dataset of Norwegian transactions to estimate the renovation premium in an urban housing market. The renovation premium is estimated in a hedonic framework by classical regression approaches and a random forest algorithm. The strength of the latter is that it allows for a more complex interplay between the renovation premium and explanatory variables. We estimate a significant positive renovation premium of 5–7 percent for renovated dwellings and a negative premium of 9–10 percent for unmaintained/neglected dwellings. These averages mask significant variations in these premiums over time, particularly, a counter-cyclical effect. Omitting renovation information also has implications for estimated short-term house price growth. Unmaintained dwellings tend to transact more in the fourth quarter, indicating that parts of the seasonal price variation reported in the literature are due to compositional variation with respect to renovation. This composition effect bias price movement estimates downward, if uncontrolled for, as unmaintained dwellings transact at significantly lower prices.

Seasonal variation in supply and prices of strawberry in Minas Gerais’ CEASA, BRAZIL

ABSTRACT: The research studied the seasonal variation in supply and prices of strawberry practiced in the state of Minas Gerais, represented by the units of the CEASAMINAS, as well as components of this supply for each major supply region in the state, in the period between 2016 and 2019. The CEASAMINAS unit (Greater Belo Horizonte) was responsible for 76% of the annual commercialization of strawberry in Minas Gerais, through the CEASAMINAS units, which fluctuated between 6038.4 and 7413.4 Mg ha-1 yearly. In the periods of transition from winter to mid-season and summer, it is possible to observe striking variations in supply and prices of strawberry in market assessed, referring to the lowest productive averages and the highest average prices observed year to year. The seasonal variations in supply and prices of strawberry clearly reflected the need for new cultivars that can satisfactorily produce during the mid-season and high temperature months.

DEMAND, SUPPLY AND REASONS FOR PRICE HIKE OF POTATO IN BANGLADESH

The objective of the study is to find out the factors behind the supply, demand and thereby prices of potato and explore the existence of syndicate in the market. The study is mainly based on secondary data. Additionally, some qualitative data were collected through FGD and KII from Bogura, Rangpur and Munshiganj areas. The area, production and yield of potato grew by 4.58%, 6.61% and 1.95%, respectively per annum since independence. The production of HYV potato rose sharply, while local one rose at a slower pace. Potato production exhibits high fluctuation with roughly three years’ cycle, which sharply decreased in the recent past. The nominal prices of potato witnessed upward trend, while real prices experienced downward trend since independence. There exists wide seasonal price variation of potato with the lowest price in March and the highest in December. Potato market seemingly integrated as prices at all levels move together. The rising trend of potato prices seems to be halted after re-fixing prices by DAM. Real prices displayed wide price variation as volatility index stands at 73.16%. The total surplus of potatoes in 2020 stands at 3.40 lakh MT which is much lower than the previous years. The profit earned by the potato growers was estimated at around Tk. 1.1 million /ha. The estimated DRC implies that Bangladesh had comparative advantage in potato production for export promotion. In 2020, 73% capacity of 392 cold storages in operation is utilized. It is concluded that main cause of the price hike was the artificial crisis created by some profit seeking traders rather than the low production and higher consumption of potato in the country. Fixation of price, regular market monitoring and taking legal action to the artificial crisis creators may be the way of avoiding unexpected price hike of potato in the country.

CAN COLD STORAGE REDUCE SEASONAL VARIATION IN PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES? A CASE OF POTATO IN BANGLADESH:

Cold storage has a significant role to maintain supply of potato throughout the year in a country and hence it can influence to reduce the seasonal price variations because in agriculture supply mainly regulates the price of commodities. This study was undertaken to investigate whether the cold storage can reduce the seasonal variation in prices of potato in Bangladesh. National data on monthly wholesale prices of potatoes (potato local, potato Holland white and red) were collected during the period from 1972 to 2018 from Department of Agricultural Marketing. Ratio to the moving average method was applied to measure the seasonal price indices between the two periods (before establishing sufficient capacity of cold storage and after establishing sufficient capacity of cold storage for storing potato in Bangladesh) for assessing whether the cold storage can reduce seasonal variation in prices of potato. From the study it was revealed that seasonal price variation of different varieties of potatoes became lower after establishing sufficient cold storage capacity (more than 30 per cent of total potato production from 1988 to 2018) in the country, i.e., there is an impact of cold storage in reducing the seasonal price variation of potato. Because price variations for individual months, coefficient of variation and range, all of them are lower after establishing sufficient capacity of cold storage. So, cold storages can reduce the seasonal variation in prices of potato. Government should facilitate more for establishing cold storage; these facilities can improve the seasonal price fluctuations of other vegetables also.

Market integration of selected tomato markets in Northern India

Vegetable production could be one of the best alternatives to break wheat-paddy rotation in the northern India. Among all the vegetables, tomato crop is a major vegetable crop after potato, chillies and peas. The study was conducted to assess the integration of tomato markets in northern India.. The present study was supported by the monthly wholesale prices of tomato data for the period of 201119 in the four national markets of India namely Amritsar, Ludhiana, Shimla and Delhi. The instability in the prices of vegetables is influenced by the number of factors such as variation in production, low price elasticity of demand, perishability and seasonality. Time series analysis of monthly prices indicated that seasonal price index does not follow any particular trend in these markets. The intra price rise (IPR), Average seasonal price variation (ASPV) and the coefficient of variation were found to be highest in Delhi and lowest for Shimla. The higher seasonal indices of all the markets were observed during the months of July-August-September-November. This was due to the early influx of monsoon which partially damaged tomato crop and led to tremendous effect on the supply and afterwards higher prices. The wholesale price series of tomato in Shimla, Delhi and Ludhiana markets were stationery at original series except Amritsar market which became stationery after first order differencing. Johensen's co-integration and Granger causality test was used to analyze the long run relationship among markets. All the markets were co-integrated with each other and were having a long run relationship. Majority of the markets were having a bidirectional price relationship and few have shown unidirectional/non-price movements.

Price Volatility and Seasonal Analysis of Tomato, Onion and Potato

The present study was aimed at analysing volatility, and seasonal variation in prices of tomato, onion and potato (TOP) using Generalized GARCH) analysis and monthly centred moving Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ( average method. Based on the highest market arrivals of produce, the Madanapalle (Andhra Pradesh), Lasalgaon (Maharashtra) and Agra (Uttar Pradesh) markets were selected for tomato, onion and potato respectively. A monthly time series data for a period of 15 years from January 2005 to December 2019 were considered for analysis. The results revealed that among the selected three markets, Agra market exhibited persistent price variation (?+?=1.112) followed by Madanapalle (?+?=0.976) and Lasalgaon market (?+?=0.969). The highest seasonal price indices were observed during November (169.23), October (141.65) and November (132.08) respectively at Madanapalle tomato, Lasalgaon onion and Agra potato markets respectively. A systematic market intelligence network is needed to collect and collate real-time data on crop area, production, demand, supply and prices, to get more stable and remunerative prices at farmer level. Strengthening of post-harvest infrastructural facilities to stabilize the prices and to improve the marketing system for TOP crops is essential for the benefit of both producers and consumers.

Seasonal Price Variability and Temporal Business Opportunities for Lime and Sweet Oranges in Nepal

The price of agricultural commodity shows seasonal nature with low price immediately after harvest which increases gradually to reach maximum just prior to next harvest. The price of sweet orange and lime also exhibits strong seasonality due to their seasonal nature of production and higher perishability which may exacerbate the poverty of small holding farmers but also can increase the profit of farmers if it can be properly utilized. However, the knowledge about seasonal price movement of these fruits in Nepal is inadequate. Thus, this study was conducted to analyze the seasonal price variation and business opportunities of Lime and Sweet oranges in Nepal which may be useful in developing appropriate policy response for price stabilization. The ratio-to-moving average method was used to study the seasonal price variation and business opportunities. The results from this study revealed the strong seasonal nature of price movement with the highest seasonal index in Baishakh for lime and Ashad for sweet orange whereas the lowest seasonal index for lime and sweet orange in Poush and Kartik respectively. The magnitude of price variability was high and the gross storage return for both lime and sweet orange was also higher. Similarly, the wholesale price of sweet orange and lime showed significant and increasing trend. This concludes that the earning from sale of lime and sweet orange is highly unstable due to the seasonal nature of their prices and the storage and sale of these commodity during the lean season of production would be profitable.

Price analysis and forecasting for decision making: Insights from wheat markets in India

Wheat occupies a prime position in supplementing the food security needs of India. Price forecast related to a food commodity is essential in executing policies which ensure market support. Keeping this in view, an attempt was made to forecast monthly wholesale wheat prices adopting ARIMA model in spatially separated markets of India using the historical data sourced from AGMARK price portal (July 2002-June 2018). Wheat prices exhibited a clearcut seasonality captured through monthly price indices. The prices were found to be highest during the crop season (November-March) as it is the production phase lacking market supply and lowest during post-harvest season (June- October) wherein supply surge is witnessed. The average seasonal price variation and intra-year price rise were found to be highest in Haryana, followed by Punjab. Forecasted prices estimated by fitting the ARIMA model were found to be higher for low or negligible wheat producing states such as Kerala and Karnataka, and lower for higher wheat producing states like Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Forecast performance the fitted models were further supported by using measures like RMSE, MAPE and MAE with 95% confidence interval. The study emphasized the need for effective dissemination of market information such as price forecast to farmers, agri-based industries and other concerned stakeholders which will help in decision making apart from tracking price volatility.

Seasonal, annual, and spatial variation in cereal prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

Local food prices are key indicators of food security and market conditions. Yet price data are often not available, particularly for rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. We compiled data from 168 markets to study spatial and temporal price variation. We found that prices slightly increase when the preceding growing season was dry. Across the continent, there is pronounced seasonal variation, with lowest prices 2–3 months after harvest and highest prices just before harvest. A predictive model explained 42% of the spatial variation in prices. Our results show that spatial and temporal price variation can be generalized and that prices can be estimated for unsampled locations or months. Such estimates may be used to improve the targeting of food security interventions and strengthen empirical policy-oriented research.

Bitcoin’s energy consumption is underestimated: A market dynamics approach

As the resource intensity of running Bitcoin has increased over recent years, it has become a serious concern for its potential impact on health and climate. Within this context, there exists a growing need for accurate information. Various organizations need this for multiple purposes like properly assessing the urgency of the problem, implementing the right policy response in the right locations and for setting up mitigation programs.We propose a market dynamics approach to evaluate the current methods for obtaining information on Bitcoin’s energy demand. This allows us to establish that, while historically the Bitcoin mining industry has been growing most of the time, this growth allows market participants to pursue strategies that don’t necessarily involve the best devices, device settings, or locations. The bigger the profitability of mining, the more it allows market participants to make decisions that result in suboptimal power efficiency of the Bitcoin network. Specifically, while the profitability of mining peaked during 2019, we find that market participants primarily used older generations of devices with better availability and lower acquisition costs. Common estimation approaches don’t only fail to capture this behavior, but also fail to properly capture the market circumstances, like seasonal and geographic variation in electricity prices, that help enable participants to do so in the first place. This combination leaves common approaches prone to providing optimistic estimates during growth cycles. We conservatively estimate the Bitcoin network to consume 87.1 TWh of electrical energy annually per September 30, 2019 (equaling a country like Belgium).

Taze Domatesin Mekansal ve Mevsimsel Fiyat Varyasyonları: Nijerya Örneği

The degree of price variation of fresh tomato over space and time; and its effect on consumer welfare is not yet known in Nigeria. This study therefore examined the effect of spatial and seasonal price variations of fresh tomato marketing on the welfare of consumers in Nigeria. Primary data were collected with structured questionnaire from 240 randomly selected tomato marketers. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools. Finding showed that the mean price of fresh tomato per basket was N16,350 for minor markets and N12,450 for major markets. Test of hypothesis indicated a significant (p<0.05) spatial price variation. Further result indicated a significant (p<0.05) inter-seasonal price variation with a mean of N18,000/basket for off season and N6,400/basket for peak season. The result revealed that seasonal price variation (64.4%) is higher than spatial price variation (23.9%) in Nigeria. Regression result and factor analysis indicated that duration of product in store before sale, bargaining power of seller, patronage, packaging charges and transportation cost were the most significant determinant of fresh tomato price variation which affect the welfare of tomato consumers. Price variation exerts negative and significant (p<0.05) effect on consumers welfare through higher expenditure on consumption and low level of patronage (demand). We recommended that government should improve the rural road network to reduce transportation cost and spoilage of fresh tomato in Nigeria.

Effect of Seasonal and Cyclical Variation in Prices of Natural Rubber in India

Natural Rubber (NR) an agricultural product is an important raw material in a broad spectrum of industries such as automobile and pharmaceutical. NR sector has its local and global dimensions. Thus the trend and pattern of natural rubber price in India: an, exploratory analysis. Annual average price of natural rubber (NR) in India during the 18 year period from 2000-01 to 2017-18 was analyzed with the objectives of delineating the trend, identifying the different phases and direction of price movement and the contributing factors. Hence, the present study explores the seasonal and cyclical trend in domestic and international prices of natural rubber in India. The month wise seasonal index in domestic and international price of natural rubber was calculated by moving average method. It was lowest in the month of January and November and highest in the month of July and June in domestic and international market respectively. Thus, the farmer could not receive the better price by postponing the sale of produce during the month of September to February to later month of the year. The analysis of cyclical indices in both domestic and international price shows that there is an uneven cycle both in domestic and international market of natural rubber. The NR price in India did not show any significant pattern of consistent movement towards a particular direction in the long run. Keywords: Price; Natural Rubber and Cyclical indices;

Seasonal price variation and market intregration of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) fish in some selected areas of Bangladesh

Seasonal price variation and market intregration of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) fish in some selected areas of Bangladesh

Market Integration and Seasonal Price Variation of High-Value Vegetable Crops in Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh

Market Integration and Seasonal Price Variation of High-Value Vegetable Crops in Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh

English

This study was conducted to assess the effects of absence of a legal framework regulating the animal feeds industry on poultry value chain actor performance and sustainability. The objectives of the study were to identify the key constraints faced by individual farmers, livestock feed manufacturers, and field veterinary personnel; and assess challenges cutting across the industry actors. Data used in the study were collected using formal survey techniques and key informant surveys. Farmers who mix their own feed and those who buy already mixed reported poor quality and seasonal variation in prices as the main constraints associated with feeds. Adulteration of feed was mostly linked to scarcity of crop-based raw materials, namely maize, sunflower, cotton seedcake, and soya bean and those obtained from lakes, such as lake shells and haplochromis (silver fish) whose supply is seasonal in nature. The following findings are unveiled from the study. Intensive commercial poultry is a major source of income especially to female headed households. Long-term investment in housing structures confirms that farmers have a strong resolve to sustain poultry farming as a priority income generation enterprise. Performance, gains, and delivery of services by all value chain actors - farmers, feed manufacturers/ mixers, and field veterinary officers are adversely affected by lack of a regulations and standards as a result of absence of the animal feeds act. It is concluded that innovation platforms that bring together actors would be necessary to lobby government on legislation. This would enhance improved grain drying and bulk storage and put in place trade barriers restricting exportation of primary farm produce especially maize grain/bran. It is recommended that research expedites efforts to develop and promote energy substitutes to maize. Key words: Innovation platforms, policy, public-private-participation, supply chains.

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

In recent times, considerable attention has been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in the international food prices which took place in 2007–8 and 2010–11. While understandable, this growing focus has perhaps obscured the impact of other variables affecting malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the long-term impact of agricultural policies on food supply and prices, large and persistent seasonal variations in food prices, and the impact of famines which still affect parts of the continent. This paper focuses on the relative impact of these factors on child malnutrition (measured by the number of child admissions to feeding centres) in Malawi and Niger, two countries which closely represent the situation of other small, landlocked, subsistence agricultural economies facing severe food security problems. Our analysis shows that in these countries the drivers of changes in domestic staple prices and child malnutrition are related not only – or not primarily – to variations of international food prices but also to the impact of agricultural policies on food production and prices, in a persistent food price seasonality, and in recurrent and poorly managed famines. These factors can exert a strong upward pressure on food prices and child malnutrition even during years of falling international prices.