Seasonal Price Variability and Temporal Business Opportunities for Lime and Sweet Oranges in Nepal

Abstract

The price of agricultural commodity shows seasonal nature with low price immediately after harvest which increases gradually to reach maximum just prior to next harvest. The price of sweet orange and lime also exhibits strong seasonality due to their seasonal nature of production and higher perishability which may exacerbate the poverty of small holding farmers but also can increase the profit of farmers if it can be properly utilized. However, the knowledge about seasonal price movement of these fruits in Nepal is inadequate. Thus, this study was conducted to analyze the seasonal price variation and business opportunities of Lime and Sweet oranges in Nepal which may be useful in developing appropriate policy response for price stabilization. The ratio-to-moving average method was used to study the seasonal price variation and business opportunities. The results from this study revealed the strong seasonal nature of price movement with the highest seasonal index in Baishakh for lime and Ashad for sweet orange whereas the lowest seasonal index for lime and sweet orange in Poush and Kartik respectively. The magnitude of price variability was high and the gross storage return for both lime and sweet orange was also higher. Similarly, the wholesale price of sweet orange and lime showed significant and increasing trend. This concludes that the earning from sale of lime and sweet orange is highly unstable due to the seasonal nature of their prices and the storage and sale of these commodity during the lean season of production would be profitable.