Seasonal Time Scales Research Articles

What Controls Suspended-Sediment Concentration and Export in Flooded Agricultural Tracts in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta?

We investigated wind-wave and suspended-sediment dynamics in Little Holland Tract and Liberty Island, two subsided former agricultural tracts in the Cache Slough complex in the northern Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta which were restored to tidal shallows to improve habitat. Turbidity, and thus suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), is important to habitat quality because some species of native fishes, including the Delta Smelt, are found preferentially in more turbid waters. Data from October 2015 to August 2016 show that average SSC was greater within Little Holland Tract than in the primary breach that connects the basin to surrounding channels: approximately twice as great at a shallower station farther from the breach and 15% greater at a deeper station closer to the breach. Suspended-sediment concentration within Little Holland Tract was directly related to wave shear stress and inversely related to water depth, based on linear regression. We used measurements of suspended-sediment flux (SSF) through the largest levee breaches to assess whether the enhanced SSC within Little Holland Tract is exported to surrounding waters, thus potentially increasing turbidity over a wider region. Cumulatively, sediment is exported through the Little Holland Tract breaches in winter and imported in summer, consistent with regional patterns in sediment flux, indicating that wind-wave re-suspension within the basin does not control sediment flux from Little Holland Tract on seasonal time-scales. Some sediment was exported during wind-wave events, and results show that sediment export is greater when primary breaches are located downwind of the basin rather than upwind.

An Assessment of Trends of Potential Evapotranspiration at Multiple Timescales and Locations in Sicily from 2002 to 2022

Climate change and the related temperature rise can cause an increase in evapotranspiration. Thus, the assessment of potential evapotranspiration (PET) trends is important to identify possible ongoing signals of climate change, in order to develop adaptation measures for water resource management and improve irrigation efficiency. In this study, we capitalize on the data available from a network of 46 complete meteorological stations in Sicily that cover a period of about 21 years (2002–2022) to estimate PET by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) using the Penman–Monteith method at the daily time scale in Sicily (southern Italy). We then analyse the trends of PET and assess their significance by Sen’s Slope and the Mann–Kendall test at multiple temporal scales (monthly, seasonal, and annual). Most of the locations do not show significant trends. For instance, at the annual timescale, only five locations have a significantly increasing trend. However, there are many locations where the monthly trend is statistically significant. The number of locations where monthly trend is significant is maximum for August, where 18 out of these 46 stations have an increasing trend. In contrast, in March, there are no locations with a significant trend. The location with the highest increasing trend of PET indicates trend slopes of 1.73, 3.42, and 10.68 mm/year at monthly (August), seasonal (summer), and annual timescales, respectively. In contrast, decreasing PET trends are present only at the monthly and seasonal scales, with a maximum of, respectively, −1.82 (July) and −3.28 (summer) mm/year. Overall, the findings of this study are useful for climate change adaptation strategies to be pursued in the region.

Economic Controls Co-Design of Hybrid Microgrids with Tidal/PV Generation and Lithium-Ion/Flow Battery Storage

Due to the uncontrollable generators, islanded microgrids powered only by renewable energy require costly energy storage systems. Energy storage needs are amplified when load and generation are misaligned on hourly, monthly, or seasonal timescales. Diversification of both loads and generation can smooth out such mismatches. However, the ideal type of battery to smooth out remaining generation deficits will depend on the duration(s) that energy is stored. This study presents a controls co-design approach to design an islanded microgrid, showing the benefit of hybridizing tidal and solar generation and hybridizing lithium-ion and flow battery energy storage. The optimization of the microgrid’s levelized cost of energy is initially studied in grid-search slices to understand convexity and smoothness. Then, a particle swarm optimization is proposed and used to study the sensitivity of the hybrid system configuration to variations in component costs. The study highlights the benefits of controls co-design, the need to model premature battery failure, and the importance of using battery cost models that are applicable across orders of magnitude variations in energy storage durations. The results indicate that such a hybrid microgrid would currently produce energy at five times the cost of diesel generation, but flow battery innovations could bring this closer to only twice the cost while using 100% renewable energy.

Seasonal variations in Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions into the Ross Sea continental shelf

Intrusions of the warm and nutrient-rich Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) across the Ross Sea shelf break play an important role in providing heat for ice shelf basal melting and setting the physical environment for biochemical processes. Several mechanisms driving CDW intrusions into the Ross Sea were proposed such as mesoscale eddies, tidal rectification, and interactions between the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) and topographic features. The seasonal variations in the poleward transport of CDW are investigated using ERA-Interim wind data and a Ross Sea circulation model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) between September 1999 and September 2014. The analyses focus on the currents along the shelf break and deep troughs on the Ross Sea shelf and discuss the wind-driven Ekman pumping in both shelf and adjacent open ocean regions. The results reveal that the poleward intrusions generally move up onto the continental shelf along the eastern flanks of deep troughs. Seasonal variations of the ocean surface stress torque exerted by wind and sea ice in the off-shelf area are correlated with CDW intrusions. The maxima of CDW intrusions usually occur in austral summer. There is a significant temporal correlation on the seasonal time scale between the on-shelf intrusions in deep troughs in the western Ross Sea shelf and poleward Sverdrup transports in the adjacent off-shelf open ocean driven by the Ekman pumping. The analysis of ocean surface stress fields also indicates that the vorticity fluxes through the Ekman pumping are in favor of southward and northward transports in the eastern and western parts of the Ross Sea, respectively. The relationships between currents, CDW intrusions, and ocean surface stress fields imply the importance of air–sea interactions and potential climate change to the environment in the Ross Sea.

Seasonal variations and controlling factors of speleothem multi-proxy in southeastern China: Implications for the reconstruction of precipitation seasonality

Precipitation in southeastern China exhibits strong seasonal variability, which significantly impacts local agricultural production and social development. However, the reconstruction of precipitation seasonality has been limited by the lack of precisely dated high-resolution paleoclimatic records. This study presents seasonal-scale multi-proxy records (trace elements: Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca Ba/Ca and stable isotopes: δ18O and δ13C) of a modern (1810–2009 AD) annually laminated stalagmite (EM1) from E’Mei Cave, Jiangxi Province in southeastern China. Comparative analysis of observation data with meteorological and simulation data shows that the seasonal variation of EM1 δ18O, derived from precipitation δ18O, is mainly controlled by the large-scale circulation and precipitation seasonality on an interannual timescale. The seasonal EM1 δ18O variation is controlled by the seasonal precipitation δ18O, however, the most negative values of EM1 δ18O are higher than those of simulated calcite δ18O and the average amplitude of the seasonal variation of EM1 δ18O (∼1.93‰) is much smaller than that of simulated calcite δ18O (∼9.72‰) because of evaporation and mixing of waters in the epikarst system. On the decadal timescales, variations of δ13C, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Ba/Ca were found to be strongly correlated, consistent with the variation of the local dry/flood index, indicating a common influencing factor of local hydroclimate change. However, their seasonal phase relationships vary between strong and weak summer monsoon conditions. We find a strong covariation between Mg/Ca and δ13C with Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca during the strong monsoon period (1951–1976), and they are in antiphase with seasonal δ18O variation. However, the seasonal variations of Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca transformed to dominantly antiphase with Mg/Ca and δ13C during the weak monsoon period (1977–1991 AD). Therefore, we suggest that Mg/Ca and δ13C are dominantly controlled by the local hydroclimate changes on seasonal timescales but Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca might have been affected by complex processes in the epikarst under different hydrothermal configuration conditions. The findings indicate the potential of the variation of the seasonal phase relationships between multi-proxy records in reconstructing precipitation seasonality changes under different hydrothermal backgrounds.

Gangotri glacier dynamics from multi-sensor SAR and optical data

The present study has analyzed dynamics of Gangotri glacier using multiple remote sensing (RS) datasets and ground based observations. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data pairs from European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS 1/2) tandem pair for spring of 1996, Sentinel-1 SAR pairs and Japanese’s Advance Land Observation System (ALOS) PALSAR-2 SAR data for Spring of 2015 were used to derive glacier-surface velocity at seasonal time scale using Differential InSAR (DInSAR) techniques. Bi-static TanDEM-X (Experimental) data was used for the 1st time to estimate glacier surface elevation changes for a period of 22, 44, 88 days during summer of 2012 using InSAR techniques in this study. Annual glacier velocity was also estimated using temporal panchromatic data of LANDSAT-5 (30 m), LANDSAT-7/8 (15 m), Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Indian Remote Sensing Satellite IRS-1C/1D panchromatic (5 m) data during 1998–2019 with feature tracking approach. This study has estimated glacier surface velocity and surface elevation changes for the major parts of Gangotri glacier and its tributary glaciers using medium to high resolution optical and SAR datasets, at annual and seasonal time scale, which is an improvement over earlier studies, wherein snout based glacier recession or only main glacier velocities were reported. The velocity and slope were used to assess glacier-ice thickness distribution using Glabtop-2, slope dependent and laminar flow based methods over the Gangotri group of glaciers. The estimated ice thickness was estimated in the range of 58–550 m for the complete glacier while few small areas in middle & upper regions carry higher thickness of about 607 m. The estimated glacier-ice thickness was found in the range of 58–67 m at the snout region. The estimation was validated using 2014 field measurements from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) for the first time and correlation was found to be 0.799 at snout of the glacier.

Underpredicted ENSO Teleconnections in Seasonal Forecasts

AbstractThe El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability across the globe. ENSO is highly predictable on seasonal timescales and therefore its teleconnections are a source of extratropical forecast skill. To fully harness this predictability, teleconnections must be represented accurately in seasonal forecasts. We find that a multimodel ensemble from five seasonal forecast systems can successfully capture the spatial structure of the late winter (JFM) El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic via North America, but the simulated amplitude is half of that observed. We find that weak amplitude teleconnections exist in all five models throughout the troposphere, and that the La Niña teleconnection is also weak. We find evidence that tropical forcing of the El Niño teleconnection is not underestimated and instead, deficiencies are likely to emerge in the extratropics. We investigate the impact of underestimated teleconnection strength on North Atlantic winter predictability, including its relevance to the signal‐to‐noise paradox.

Revisiting the tropical Atlantic western boundary circulation from a 25-year time series of satellite altimetry data

Abstract. Geostrophic currents derived from altimetry are used to investigate the surface circulation in the western tropical Atlantic over the 1993–2017 period. Using six horizontal sections defined to capture the current branches of the study area, we investigate their respective variations at both seasonal and interannual timescales, as well as the spatial distribution of these variations, in order to highlight the characteristics of the currents on their route. Our results show that the central branch of the South Equatorial Current and its northern branch near the Brazilian coast, the North Brazil Current component located south of the Equator, and the Guyana Current have similar annual cycles, with maxima (minima) during late boreal winter (boreal fall) when the Intertropical Convergence Zone is at its southernmost (northernmost) location. In contrast, the seasonal cycles of the North Brazil Current branch located between the Equator and 7–8∘ N, its retroflected branch, the northern branch of the South Equatorial Current to the west of 35∘ W, and the North Equatorial Countercurrent show maxima (minima) during late boreal summer (boreal spring), following the remote wind stress curl strength variation. West of 32∘ W, an eastward current (the Equatorial Surface Current, ESC) is observed between 2–2∘ N, identified as the equatorial extension of the retroflected branch of the North Brazil Current. It is part of a large cyclonic circulation observed between 0–6∘ N and 35–45∘ W during boreal spring. We also observed a secondary North Brazil Current retroflection flow during the second half of the year, which leads to the two-core structure of the North Equatorial Countercurrent and might be related to the wind stress curl seasonal changes. To the east, the North Equatorial Countercurrent weakens and its two-core structure is underdeveloped due to the weakening of the wind stress. At interannual scales, depending on the side of the Equator examined, the North Brazil Current exhibits two opposite scenarios related to the phases of the tropical Atlantic Meridional Mode. At 32∘ W, the interannual variability of the North Equatorial Countercurrent and of the northern branch of the South Equatorial Current (in terms of both strength and/or latitudinal shift) are associated with the Atlantic Meridional Mode, whereas the variability of the Equatorial Surface Current intensity is associated with both the Atlantic Meridional Mode and Atlantic Zonal Mode phases.

Modeling hydrological non-stationarity to analyze environmental impacts on drought propagation

Climate variation and anthropic activities are two key driving forces that impact the hydrologic cycle as well as the relationships between different drought types. Thus, it is essential to evaluate the impacts of environmental variations on the relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts. In this study, abrupt changes in the yearly hydrological time series (streamflow) of the Han River Basin (HRB) were detected using a non-linearity-based empirical segmentation approach. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was employed to model meteorological drought, while the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) algorithm was adopted to model the non-linear hydrological time series to obtain the non-stationarity based Standardized Runoff Index (SRINS). Correlation analyses were conducted on meteorological droughts (as presented by SPEI) and the hydrological drought data (as presented by the SRINS). A Bayesian network model (BNM) was employed to calculate the propagation likelihood of different categories of meteorological droughts resulting in hydrological droughts. Change points in the hydrological regime were identified based on the empirical segmentation analysis after the 1990s. Significant increasing trends in urbanization, gross domestic product, and population were observed after the change points. The correlation analysis showed that the seasonal (3-month) timescale of SPEI corresponded best to the three-month SRINS. The BNM revealed that the average propagation likelihoods of severe and extreme categories of meteorological drought resulting in severe and extreme categories of hydrological drought were 23.6% and 18.2%, respectively, due to the influence of climate change. These probabilities were increased by 53.9% and 70.8%, respectively, in the human impacted era due to high pressure on water resources caused by increased population, industrialization, water extraction, etc. In conclusion, the likelihood of extreme conditions of meteorological drought resulting in extreme hydrological drought was increased significantly after the change points.

The ERA5 Extreme Seasons Explorer as a Basis for Research at the Weather and Climate Interface

Abstract Meteorological extremes on the seasonal time scale have received increased attention due to their relevance for society and economy. A recently developed approach to identify seasonal extremes is applied here to ERA5 reanalyses from 1950 to 2020 to identify hot and cold, wet and dry, and stormy and calm extreme seasons globally. The approach consists of (i) fitting a statistical model to seasonal mean values (of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed) at each grid point, (ii) selecting a local return period threshold above which seasonal mean values are deemed extreme, and (iii) forming spatially coherent extreme season objects. The paper introduces the ERA5 extreme season explorer, an open-access web portal enabling researchers to visualize and download extreme season objects of any of the six types in their region of interest, for further investigating their underlying dynamics, statistical properties, and impacts. To illustrate the potential of our extreme season objects, we first discuss the top 10 cold winters in ERA5 globally and then focus on an unusual triple-compound extreme season in winter 1953/54 in Europe, which was simultaneously extremely cold, dry, and calm. We show that detailed analysis of weather system dynamics, including cyclones, blocks, jets, and Rossby waves, provides important insight into the processes leading to extreme seasons. In summary, this study presents for the first time a catalogue of objectively identified extreme seasons in the last decades, shows exemplarily how large-scale dynamics can lead to such seasons, and with the help of the explorer supports the community in accelerating research in this important area at the interface of weather and climate dynamics.

Paleoenvironmental changes across the Mesozoic–Paleogene hyperthermal events

Extreme climate warmth (hyperthermal) events through deep-time offer prescient insights into how the Earth may respond to present-day warming related to greenhouse gas emissions. This special issue deals with Paleoenvironmental changes across the Mesozoic–Paleogene hyperthermal events and comprises 25 interdisciplinary research articles. In this review paper, we summarise the contents of the special issue, placing it into a wider context, and demonstrate that Mesozoic–Paleogene hyperthermal events were among the most devastating and extreme climate modes in the geological record. Key findings are as follows: (1) Multi-proxy geochemical and sedimentological analyses reveal that widespread deoxygenation of oceans and megalakes was a common accompanying feature of most hyperthermals. (2) Evidence exists for complex linkages between volcanism, warm climate conditions, contemporary carbon cycles, aquatic biogeochemical cycles, wildfire activities, and climate-modulated hydrological and terrestrial weathering changes operating at seasonal, orbital and/or tectonic timescales. (3) Pronounced and rapid biological turnovers in the ocean during hyperthermals may have been linked to seawater acidification and shifts in nutrient availability, while promoting significant alterations in primary productivity, biological pump and ecosystem structures. Despite these advances, future interdisciplinary studies are needed to deliver a more comprehensive understanding of the nature and mechanism of complex environmental interactions within the Earth system, as well as the internal and external drivers that may have triggered hyperthermal events.

Eddy Covariance Data Reveal That a Small Freshwater Reservoir Emits a Substantial Amount of Carbon Dioxide and Methane

AbstractSmall freshwater reservoirs are ubiquitous and likely play an important role in global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets relative to their limited water surface area. However, constraining annual GHG fluxes in small freshwater reservoirs is challenging given their footprint area and spatially and temporally variable emissions. To quantify the GHG budget of a small (0.1 km2) reservoir, we deployed an Eddy covariance (EC) system in a small reservoir located in southwestern Virginia, USA over 2 years to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes near‐continuously. Fluxes were coupled with in situ sensors measuring multiple environmental parameters. Over both years, we found the reservoir to be a large source of CO2 (633–731 g CO2‐C m−2 yr−1) and CH4 (1.02–1.29 g CH4‐C m−2 yr−1) to the atmosphere, with substantial sub‐daily, daily, weekly, and seasonal timescales of variability. For example, fluxes were substantially greater during the summer thermally stratified season as compared to the winter. In addition, we observed significantly greater GHG fluxes during winter intermittent ice‐on conditions as compared to continuous ice‐on conditions, suggesting GHG emissions from lakes and reservoirs may increase with predicted decreases in winter ice‐cover. Finally, we identified several key environmental variables that may be driving reservoir GHG fluxes at multiple timescales, including, surface water temperature and thermocline depth followed by fluorescent dissolved organic matter. Overall, our novel year‐round EC data from a small reservoir indicate that these freshwater ecosystems likely contribute a substantial amount of CO2 and CH4 to global GHG budgets, relative to their surface area.

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

Transport-driven seasonal abundance of pelagic fishes in the Chukchi Sea observed with seafloor-mounted echosounders

Abstract Recent summer surveys of the northeastern Chukchi Sea found pelagic fishes were dominated by large numbers of age-0 Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida, Gadidae) and walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus, Gadidae), while adult fishes were comparatively scarce. The source and fate of these young fishes remain unclear, as sampling in this region is impeded by seasonal ice cover much of the year. Seafloor-mounted echosounders were deployed at three locations in the northeastern Chukchi Sea from 2017 to 2019 to determine the movement and seasonal variability of these age-0 gadids. These observations indicated that the abundance of pelagic fishes and community composition on the Chukchi Sea shelf were highly variable on seasonal time scales, with few fish present in winter. Tracking indicated that fish movements were strongly correlated with local currents. Fishes were primarily displaced to the northeast in summer and fall, with periodic reversals towards the southwest driven by changes in regional wind patterns. The flux of fishes past the moorings indicated that the prevailing northward currents transport a large proportion of the age-0 pelagic fishes present on the Chukchi shelf in summer to the northeast by fall, leading to relatively low abundances of age-1+fishes in this environment.

Structure and variability of the Pechora plume in the southeastern part of the Barents Sea

The Pechora River forms the large Pechora River plume in the southeastern part of the Barents Sea (also called the Pechora Sea). Many previous works addressed water masses in the Barents Sea, however, the Pechora plume received relatively little attention, therefore, many basic aspects of its structure and variability remain unknown. In this study, we focus on spreading of the Pechora plume in the Pechora Sea during ice-free periods. Based on the extensivein situmeasurements and satellite observations, we describe the dependence of area and spatial characteristics of the Pechora plume on wind forcing, river discharge rate, and spring ice conditions. We reveal three general types of Pechora plume spreading, which are determined by the external forcing conditions. Joint analysis of a large set ofin situand satellite data provided opportunity to study the variability of the Pechora plume on the synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales. We reveal regular advection of the Pechora plume through the Kara Strait into the Kara Sea. In addition, we describe formation of a significant area of increased salinity within the Pechora plume formed during wind-induced coastal upwelling events. The results of this research are of key importance for understanding the physical, biological, and geochemical processes in the Pechora Sea and the adjacent areas of the Barents and Kara seas.

Seasonal ocean forecasts to improve predictions of Dungeness crab catch rates, co-developed with state and tribal fishery managers

Abstract The commercial Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery in Oregon and Washington (USA) is one of the most valuable fisheries in the region, but it experiences high interannual variability. These fluctuations have been attributed to environmental drivers on seasonal and annual timescales. In this study, researchers and state and tribal fisheries managers develop a statistical model for Dungeness crab catch per unit effort (CPUE) to help inform dynamic management decisions in Oregon and Washington. Fishing observations were matched to seasonally forecast and lagged ocean conditions from J-SCOPE, a regional forecast system (http://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/). Inclusion of dynamic and lagged ocean conditions improved model skill compared to simpler models, and the best model captured intraseasonal trends and interannual variability in catch rates, and spatial catch patterns. We also found that model skill relied on fishing behaviour, which varies interannually, highlighting the need for advanced fishing behaviour modelling to reduce uncertainty. The relationships between catch rates and ocean conditions may help elucidate environmental influences of catch variability. Forecast products were co-designed with managers to meet their needs for key decision points. Our results illustrate a seasonal forecasting approach for management of other highly productive, but also dynamic, invertebrates that increasingly contribute to global fisheries yield.

Spatiotemporal Winter Wheat Water Status Assessment Improvement Using a Water Deficit Index Derived from an Unmanned Aerial System in the North China Plain.

Agricultural droughts cause a great reduction in winter wheat productivity; therefore, timely and precise irrigation recommendations are needed to alleviate the impact. This study aims to assess drought stress in winter wheat with the use of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) with multispectral and thermal sensors. High-resolution Water Deficit Index (WDI) maps were derived to assess crop drought stress and evaluate winter wheat actual evapotranspiration rate (ETa). However, the estimation of WDI needs to be improved by using more appropriate vegetation indices as a proximate of the fraction of vegetation cover. The experiments involved six irrigation levels of winter wheat in the harvest years 2019 and 2020 at Luancheng, North China Plain on seasonal and diurnal timescales. Additionally, WDI derived from several vegetation indices (VIs) were compared: near-infrared-, red edge-, and RGB-based. The WDIs derived from different VIs were highly correlated with each other and had similar performances. The WDI had a consistently high correlation to stomatal conductance during the whole season (R2 between 0.63-0.99) and the correlation was the highest in the middle of the growing season. On the contrary, the correlation between WDI and leaf water potential increased as the season progressed with R2 up to 0.99. Additionally, WDI and ETa had a strong connection to soil water status with R2 up to 0.93 to the fraction of transpirable soil water and 0.94 to the soil water change at 2 m depth at the hourly rate. The results indicated that WDI derived from multispectral and thermal sensors was a reliable factor in assessing the water status of the crop for irrigation scheduling.

Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales

The risk posed by heavy rain and strong wind is now suspected to be exacerbated by the way they co-occur, yet this remains insufficiently understood to effectively plan and mitigate. This study systematically investigates the correlations between wintertime (Oct–Mar) extremes relating to wind and flooding at all timescales from daily to seasonal. Meteorological reanalysis and river flow datasets are used to explore the historical period, and climate projections at 12 km resolution are analysed to understand the possible effects of future climate change (2061–2080, RCP 8.5). A new flood severity index (FSI) is also developed to complement the existing storm severity index (SSI). Initially, Great Britain (GB) is taken as a comparatively simple yet informative study area, then analysis is extended to the full European domain.Aggregated across GB, wind gusts and precipitation correlate strongly (rs∼0.6–0.8) at timescales from daily to seasonal, but peak around 10 days. A later peak is seen when considering correlations between wind gusts and river flows (40–60 days). This time is likely needed for catchments’ soils to saturate. A conceptual multi-temporal, multi-process model of GB wintertime flood-wind co-occurrence is proposed as a basis for future investigation. When historical analysis is extended across Europe we find the timescale of maximum correlation varies strongly between nations, likely as a result of different meteorological drivers.Impact focused correlation (FSI–SSI) is lower (rs∼0.2) but increases notably with climate change at timescales of ∼40 days (rs∼0.4). Tentatively, very severe episodes (i.e., both >99th percentile) appear heavily influenced by climate change, increasing roughly threefold by 2061–2080 (p < 0.05). The return period of such an event is 16 years historically (compared to 56 years if the two hazards were independent), reduces to 5 years in future. Such metrics provide actionable information for insurers and other stakeholders.

ICON-Sapphire: simulating the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and subkilometer scales

Abstract. State-of-the-art Earth system models typically employ grid spacings of O(100 km), which is too coarse to explicitly resolve main drivers of the flow of energy and matter across the Earth system. In this paper, we present the new ICON-Sapphire model configuration, which targets a representation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions with a grid spacing of 10 km and finer. Through the use of selected simulation examples, we demonstrate that ICON-Sapphire can (i) be run coupled globally on seasonal timescales with a grid spacing of 5 km, on monthly timescales with a grid spacing of 2.5 km, and on daily timescales with a grid spacing of 1.25 km; (ii) resolve large eddies in the atmosphere using hectometer grid spacings on limited-area domains in atmosphere-only simulations; (iii) resolve submesoscale ocean eddies by using a global uniform grid of 1.25 km or a telescoping grid with the finest grid spacing at 530 m, the latter coupled to a uniform atmosphere; and (iv) simulate biogeochemistry in an ocean-only simulation integrated for 4 years at 10 km. Comparison of basic features of the climate system to observations reveals no obvious pitfalls, even though some observed aspects remain difficult to capture. The throughput of the coupled 5 km global simulation is 126 simulated days per day employing 21 % of the latest machine of the German Climate Computing Center. Extrapolating from these results, multi-decadal global simulations including interactive carbon are now possible, and short global simulations resolving large eddies in the atmosphere and submesoscale eddies in the ocean are within reach.

Aura/MLS observes and SD-WACCM-X simulates the seasonality, quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation of the migrating diurnal tide driving upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection

Abstract. This work uses 17 years of upper mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature observations by the microwave limb sounder (MLS) on-board the Aura satellite to present and explain the seasonal and interannual variability of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of upper mesospheric CO. This work then compares these observations to simulations by the specified dynamics – whole atmosphere community climate model with ionosphere/thermosphere extension (SD-WACCM-X). Results show that, for all seasons, MLS CO local-time perturbations peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode in temperature. On the other hand, SD-WACCM-X DW1 also peaks above 85 km and has a latitude structure resembling the (1,1) mode, but it simulates two local maximum of the (1,1) mode between 85 and 92 km. Despite the differences in altitude structure, a tendency analysis and the adiabatic displacement method revealed that, on seasonal and interannual timescales, observed and modeled CO's (1,1) component can be reproduced solely using vertical advection. It was also found that both observed and modeled CO's (1,1) component contains interannual oscillations with periodicities close to that of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. From these results, this work concludes that on seasonal and interannual timescales, the observed and modeled (1,1) mode affects the global structure of upper mesospheric CO primarily through vertical advection.