Seasonal Rise Research Articles

Seasonal Rise in the Contents of Microcystin-LR and Odorous Substances Due to Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Drinking Water Reservoir Supplying Xinyang City, China.

Cyanobacterial blooms have become a serious water pollution problem in many parts of the world, and the monitoring and study of the impacts of biotoxins on human health are of vital importance. In this study, the contents of microcystin-LR, 2-methylisoborneol, and geosmin were measured in water and sediment samples from Nanwan Reservoir, China, by means of bimonthly sampling between February and December 2023. The physicochemical and hydrochemical factors and phytoplankton dynamics in the reservoir were also investigated. The results showed that the overall mean concentration of microcystin-LR (0.729 μg/L) in summer approached the guiding standard (1 μg/L) set by the WHO for drinking water. Furthermore, the content of 2-methylisoborneol (143.5 ng/L) was 14 times higher than the national standard (10 ng/L). The results of laboratory cultures showed that lower light levels and medium temperatures were suitable for the growth of Microcystis and Planktothricoides but higher temperatures promoted the synthesis and release of microcystin-LR and 2-methylisoborneol. In addition, the results of co-cultures showed that the growth of Planktothricoides was inhibited by Microcystis. Our results suggest that cyanobacterial bloom and the presence of the metabolites 2-methylisoborneol and microcystin-LR can decrease the drinking water quality of Nanwan Reservoir.

Clinical and epidemiological features of enteroviral meningitis in children during the seasonal increase in incidence in 2023

Objective: to identify the clinical and epidemiological features of enteroviral meningitis (EVM) in children during the seasonal rise in incidence in 2023.Materials and methods: a retrospective analysis of 171 medical histories of children aged 1 month to 17 years, hospitalized in the infectious diseases hospital of the RSBHI «KICCH № 1» from June to October 2023, is presented.Results. The bulk of patients, 77.9 ± 3.2% (133/171), were hospitalized between August and October, which indicates the persistence of the summer-autumn seasonality of incidence. The clinical picture of EVM is characterized by acute development, persistent fever, intoxication, against which headache and repeated vomiting appear, indicating the development of hypertensive-hydrocephalic syndrome. Dissociation of meningeal signs requires liquorological studies to confirm the diagnosis of enteroviral meningitis. Clinical recovery at the time of discharge occurred only in 64.3 ± 3.7% of convalescents; in the remaining children, 35.7 ± ± 3.7% (61/171) residual effects persisted, which required continued observation.

Modeling Seasonality of Emotional Tension in Social Media

Social media has become an almost unlimited resource for studying social processes. Seasonality is a phenomenon that significantly affects many physical and mental states. Modeling collective emotional seasonal changes is a challenging task for the technical, social, and humanities sciences. This is due to the laboriousness and complexity of obtaining a sufficient amount of data, processing and evaluating them, and presenting the results. At the same time, understanding the annual dynamics of collective sentiment provides us with important insights into collective behavior, especially in various crises or disasters. In our study, we propose a scheme for identifying and evaluating signs of the seasonal rise and fall of emotional tension based on social media texts. The analysis is based on Russian-language comments in VKontakte social network communities devoted to city news and the events of a small town in the Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia. Workflow steps include a statistical method for categorizing data, exploratory analysis to identify common patterns, data aggregation for modeling seasonal changes, the identification of typical data properties through clustering, and the formulation and validation of seasonality criteria. As a result of seasonality modeling, it is shown that the calendar seasonal model corresponds to the data, and the dynamics of emotional tension correlate with the seasons. The proposed methodology is useful for a wide range of social practice issues, such as monitoring public opinion or assessing irregular shifts in mass emotions.

Interactions of Seasonal Earth Processes and Climate System

The cumulative effects of seasonal Earth processes in different places and times in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere essentially and inevitably shape global climate conditions. Therefore, the article investigates the possibilities for modelling the periodicity of the observable seasonal climate processes. The starting assumption of the study is that the seasonal climate processes are representable by two-phase linear periodic models based on observed data. A numerical algorithm elaborated in the sequel makes it possible to accumulate the seasonal effects of two successively progressive and regressive process phases of periodic climate changes in time. The model first tackles the reported seasonal growth of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Next, it considers the observed seasonal cryospheric melting and freezing processes of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets and of the Arctic sea ice. It also elaborates on the reported seasonal sea level rise. Finally, the article summarises the interactions of periodic climate processes and the global climate conditions in time scale. The reports on global temperature rise are only on an annual basis. The article also emphasises the importance of control over the seasonal worsening and recovery scenarios for more appropriate projections of climate policies to 2100.

Experience of using an interferon inducer in the prevention of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections in children

Introduction. Taking into account the changeable viral landscape of pathogens, the persistence of seasonal morbidity at a high level, and the refusal of a number of parents to be vaccinated against influenza, the interest of scientists and practitioners in the use of endogenous interferon inducers is increasing. Studies by domestic authors have proven that Kagocel® is highly effective in the prevention and treatment of influenza and other ARIs.Aim. Evaluation of the efficacy and safety of Kagocel® for the prevention of influenza and ARIs in children aged 3–18 years old on an outpatient basis during the epidemic rise of respiratory viral infections in 2022–2023.Materials and methods. A prospective comparative analysis of cases of prevention of influenza and ARIs by Kagocel® in children was carried out: group 1 – main (n = 32). Kagocel® was prescribed according to the scheme for a month. The comparison group consisted of patients vaccinated against influenza, who did not receive drugs for the prevention of acute respiratory viral infections: group 2 – comparison (n = 28).Results and discussion. The index of preventive efficacy of Kagocel® was 3.0, the efficiency ratio was quite high – 66.7%. The elimination of the main clinical symptoms of the disease was noted on average by the 2nd–3rd day of illness. Prophylactic administration of the drug allowed to reduce the incidence of influenza and ARIs by 3 times; reduce the number of complications from these diseases by 4 times. The economic feasibility of prophylaxis with Kagocel® has been proven, direct costs for the treatment of one patient have decreased by 3.6 times. The interferon inducer was well tolerated, no side effects of the drug were detected.Conclusion. Endogenous interferon inducer Kagocel® can be used for prophylactic purposes during the seasonal rise in the incidence of influenza and ARIs.

Alcohol consumption under lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in three Nordic countries.

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns arose about a possible rise in alcohol consumption. Early surveys, however, more commonly pointed towards a decrease of alcohol use. But studies based on self-reports may underestimate alcohol use. They also depend on the population sampled. Because of border closures and gastronomy restrictions, countries with centralised alcohol sales provided a unique opportunity to study total domestic consumption during the pandemic without influence of private import or reliance on self-reports. We examined the correlation between alcohol sales and national COVID-19 restrictions in three such countries, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We conducted this study as a mirror image study, comparing alcohol sales during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic with the two preceding years. We explored hours of daylight/season as potential confounders. We found no relevant change in alcohol sales during the pandemic years for Finland or Sweden. For Norway, there was a level-change in sales, which could be explained by decreased imports. Sales followed a seasonal pattern. In all three countries, the initial pandemic increase in alcohol sales coincided with an underlying annually recurring seasonal variation. The COVID-19 pandemic had less of an impact on alcohol consumption in the three Nordic countries than could intuitively be expected. The increase of alcohol sales at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with a seasonal rise following a pre-pandemic pattern. Therefore, caution should be exercised with drawing conclusions from data with a short time perspective to avoid attribution bias.

Flooding of a carbonate platform: The Sian Kaʼan Wetlands, Yucatán, Mexico—A model for the formation and evolution of palustrine carbonate factories around the modern Caribbean Sea and in the depositional record

AbstractThe dynamic inter‐relationships between marine and freshwater carbonate depositional environments are illustrated in the Sian Ka'an Wetlands, a 5 280 km2 complex of groundwater‐fed freshwater marshes, lakes and brackish coastal lagoons in the South‐East Yucatán Peninsula (Mexico). The Yucatán Platform was subaerially emergent and extensively karstified during the last glacial maximum at 18, 000 yr bp. The Late Holocene transgression has caused progressive reflooding of the continental margin, backstepping of the MesoAmerican Reef and encroachment of coastal environments into the platform interior as rising groundwaters flood an interconnected cave and sinkhole system and feed seasonal marshes above. The Sian Ka'an Wetlands form a vast palustrine carbonate factory which is directly juxtaposed and dynamically linked with the marine carbonate factory to seaward. Continuing sea‐level rise has caused synchronous landward migration of marginal marine and freshwater environments as beach barriers were breached and palustrine sloughs flooded to form marginal marine seagrass lagoons. The Rio Hondo Fault conditions fluid inflow while the sub‐environments of the Sian Ka'an Wetlands reflect tectonic controls on microtopography and hydroperiod. Modern analogues for the Sian Ka'an Wetlands include the Florida Everglades, formed during transgression of the Florida Platform, and relict marsh environments preserved on leeward shores of Andros, Abaco and other Bahama islands. A wide range of ancient examples deposited in coastal and continental interior settings similarly reflect seasonal aquifer rise in response to marine transgression and/or onlap of late‐stage basin fill onto a karstified pediment. Freshwater palustrine carbonate factories on carbonate platforms are transient deposystems, controlled by subtle water depth, climate, vegetation and hydrological factors while being critically sensitive to sea‐level changes and tectonics. The preservation potential of palustrine carbonates may be relatively low in coastal settings due to erosion or shallow marine overprinting, while greater further inland where marine flooding is rarer and in tectonically subsident continental interior basins where accommodation space is continuously created.

Monitoring Seasonal Movement Characteristics of the Landslide Based on Time-Series InSAR Technology: The Cheyiping Landslide Case Study, China

Landslides are one of the extremely high-incidence and serious-loss geological disasters in the world, and the early monitoring and warning of landslides are of great importance. The Cheyiping landslide, located in western Yunnan Province, China, added many cracks and dislocations to the surface of the slope due to the severe seasonal rainfall and rise of the water level, which seriously threaten the safety of residents and roads located on the body and foot of the slope. To investigate the movement of the landslide, this paper used Sentinel-1A SAR data processed by time-series interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology to monitor the long-time surface deformation. The landslide boundary was defined, then the spatial distribution of landslide surface deformation from 5 January 2018 to 27 December 2021 was obtained. According to the monthly rainfall data and the temporal deformation results, the movement of the landslide was highly correlated with seasonal rainfall, and the Cheyiping landslide underwent seasonal sectional accelerated deformation. Moreover, the water level change of the Lancang River caused by the water storage of the hydropower station and seasonal rainfall accelerates the deformation of the landslide. This case study contributes to the interpretation of the slow deformation mechanism of the Cheyiping landslide and early hazard warning.

Abiotic and biotic factors controlling the dynamics of soil respiration in a coastal dune ecosystem in western Japan

In this study, we examined the abiotic and biotic factors controlling the dynamics of soil respiration (Rs) while considering the zonal distribution of plant species in a coastal dune ecosystem in western Japan, based on periodic Rs data and continuous environmental data. We set four measurement plots with different vegetation compositions: plot 1 on bare sand; plot 2 on a cluster of young Vitex rotundifolia seedlings; plot 3 on a mixture of Artemisia capillaris and V. rotundifolia; and plot 4 on the inland boundary between the coastal vegetation zone and a Pinus thunbergii forest. Rs increased exponentially along with the seasonal rise in soil temperature, but summer drought stress markedly decreased Rs in plots 3 and 4. There was a significant positive correlation between the natural logarithm of belowground plant biomass and Rs in autumn. Our findings indicate that the seasonal dynamics of Rs in this coastal dune ecosystem are controlled by abiotic factors (soil temperature and soil moisture), but the response of Rs to drought stress in summer varied among plots that differed in dominant vegetation species. Our findings also indicated that the spatial dynamics of Rs are mainly controlled by the distribution of belowground plant biomass and autotrophic respiration.

Viral infections in hospitalized children in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic: Association with non-pharmaceutical interventions.

BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) during the COVID-19 pandemic aimed at prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission also influenced transmission of viruses other than SARS-CoV-2. The aim of this study was to describe and compare the burden of common viral respiratory and gastrointestinal infections in children admitted to Berlin University Children's Hospital (BCH) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic at different levels of public NPI measures.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we analyzed the frequency of detection of common human respiratory and gastrointestinal viruses from January 2016 through January 2022 in all patients admitted to BCH. We compared virus detection before and during the COVID-19 pandemic at different levels of public NPI measures.ResultsThe frequency of detection of seasonal enveloped and non-enveloped viruses [Boca-, Corona-, Influenza-, Metapneumo-, Parainfluenza-, Rota-, and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses (RSV)] was diminished during the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas detection rates of non-seasonal viruses (Rhino-/Entero-, and Adenoviruses) were stable during the pandemic. After withdrawal of major NPI measures, we observed an out of season surge of the detection rates of Boca-, Corona-, Parainfluenzaviruses, and RSV. In contrast, no increased detection frequency was observed for Influenza-, Metapneumo-, and Rotaviruses as of January 2022.ConclusionCorona-, Boca-, Parainfluenzaviruses, and RSV returned as frequently detected pathogens after withdrawal of major NPI measures. The out of season rise might be attributed to an “immune-debt” due to missing contact to viral antigens resulting in waning of population immunity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting groundwater rise in the historic downtown area of Irkutsk city

The purpose of this investigation is to develop an analytical model for predicting the groundwater level rise due to the barrage effect. Processing of a significant volume of production decisions for multiple objects has resulted an analytical model that allows predicting the dynamics of groundwater rise due to the barrage effect when building deep foundation structures. The study has been conducted for the downtown areas of Irkutsk and other cities of Eastern Siberia. Prediction schemes for the groundwater level formation have been made, and an assessment of the study areas by their underflooding conditions has been carried out. Being adequately simple and multi-purpose. The analysis of the research results shows that the hydraulic gradient of the underground water flow and the project structure width have the biggest effect on the groundwater rise. Vertical planning of the territory and the use of pile foundations play a significant role in the formation of the groundwater level. Besides, when evaluating the depth of the underground water formation level and developing the prevention and protection measures, it is necessary to take into account the seasonal rise of the underground waters. The developed model can be applied in the corresponding geological and hydrogeological conditions.

Seasonal Rise in Plastic Surgery during Ramadan: A Cross-sectional Survey

Background:While demand for plastic surgery continues to rise worldwide, there are no known seasonal differences in plastic surgery volume. This study aimed to evaluate whether Ramadan was associated with a measurable rise in demand for plastic surgery.Methods:This was a cross-sectional nationwide survey of plastic surgeons. Surgeon demographics, practice setting, case load, surgical preference during the month of Ramadan, factors associated with surgical volume, and procedures that were in demand during Ramadan were collected from all registered plastic surgeons in the Saudi Commission Health Specialties.Results:A total of 120 (73%) of 165 plastic surgeon completed the survey. The male:female ratio was 8:1. A total of 34 (28%) surgeons operated in public- and private-sector practices, and 53% (n = 64) maintained private practice only. When they operate, 60 (50%), 34 (28%), and 10 (8%) operate in the morning, in morning and evening, and in evening only, respectively. Although surgeons reported lower case volumes due to reduced working hours, 57% (n = 68) reported an increase in the proportion of cosmetic surgery. There was more than 80% consensus between surgeons on school vacation and ensuing wedding season as reasons for increased demand for plastic surgery.Conclusions:Seasonal demand for cosmetic plastic surgery was virtually unheard of. Although reduced working hours in Ramadan meant lower plastic surgery case volumes, surgeons reported an increase in the demand for cosmetic surgical and nonsurgical procedures during the month of Ramadan. School vacation and post-Ramadan social events were attributed as reasons for this rise.

АНАЛИЗ ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ И ТРУДОПОТЕРЬ В ВООРУЖЕННЫХ СИЛАХ РЕСПУБЛИКИ БЕЛАРУСЬ ЗА 2017-2020 ГОДЫ

The issue of studying the level of morbidity and labor losses in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus has always been thorny. It is connected with the implementation of measures aimed at early and proper diagnosis, limited choice of effective means of specific prophylaxis and treatment. This issue is particularly pressing now, during the COVID-19 pandemic. The layering of COVID-19 on the seasonal rise of respiratory diseases leads to an increase in the number of hospitalizations (conscripts are subject to inpatient treatment according to epidemic indications for any degree of the disease severity). For hospitalization, they have to use the capacities of state healthcare institutions, which face the same problem. Considering the interest of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Belarus in studying this problem, we have analyzed the medical reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus on Form 3/MED during 2017-2020 using statistical methods of SSPP 22 statistics package. The emphasis was placed on I, X, XXI classes according to the International Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death of the 10th revision (ICD-10). As a result of the statistical data analysis, the growth of morbidity and labor losses of the servicemen in the Belarusian Armed Forces in 2020 was clearly demonstrated, which explained by the impact of COVID-19. COVID-19 could be established in the structure of morbidity of servicemen for 2020 in 10292 (15.41%) cases and 76502 days (22.60%) in the structure of labor losses. This calls for revising documents concerning the activities of military medical institutions and units under the conditions of pandemics.

Climate variability and seasonal patterns of paediatric parainfluenza infections in the tropics: An ecological study in Singapore.

Evidence of the relationship between climate variability, air pollution and human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) infections has been inconsistent. We assessed this in a paediatric population from a highly urbanized tropical city-state. We analysed all reports of HPIV infections in children <5 years old obtained from a major specialist women and children's hospital in Singapore. Assuming a negative binomial distribution and using multivariable fractional polynomial modelling, we examined the relations between climate variability, air quality and the risk of HPIV infections, adjusting for time-varying confounders. We identified 6393 laboratory-confirmed HPIV infections from 2009 to 2019. Every 1°C decline in temperature was associated with a 5.8% increase (RR: 0.943, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI]: 0.903-0.984) in HPIV infection risk 6 days later. Every 10% decrease in relative humidity was associated with a 15.8% cumulative increase in HPIV risk over the next 6 days (cumulative RR: 0.842, 95% CI: 0.771-0.919). Rainfall was positively associated with HPIV risk 2 days later (RR: 1.021, 95% CI: 1.000-1.043). A within-year seasonal rise of HPIV was driven by HPIV-3 and HPIV-1 and preceded by a seasonal decline in temperature. Gender was an effect modifier of the climate-HPIV relationship. Air quality was not associated with HPIV risk. This study demonstrates a close association between HPIV infection risk and tropical climate variability. The climate dependence and seasonal predictability of HPIV can inform the timing of community campaigns aimed at reducing infection risk and the development of hospital resources and climate adaption plans.

Estimation of Seasonal Capillary Rise and its Relationship with Evapotranspiration and Soil Salinization in Khuzestan Region

Estimation of Seasonal Capillary Rise and its Relationship with Evapotranspiration and Soil Salinization in Khuzestan Region

Climatic signatures in the different COVID-19 pandemic waves across both hemispheres.

The roles of climate and true seasonal signatures in the epidemiology of emergent pathogens, and that of SARS-CoV-2 in particular, remain poorly understood. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show, for COVID-19 cases, strong consistent negative effects of both temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales. At finer spatial resolutions, we substantiate these connections during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19. Strong disease responses are identified in the first two waves, suggesting clear ranges for temperature and absolute humidity that are similar to those formerly described for seasonal influenza. For COVID-19, in all studied regions and pandemic waves, a process-based model that incorporates a temperature-dependent transmission rate outperforms baseline formulations with no driver or a sinusoidal seasonality. Our results, so far, classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection and suggest an important contribution of the airborne pathway in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, with implications for the control measures we discuss.

Elevated seasonal temperature disrupts prooxidant-antioxidant homeostasis and promotes cellular apoptosis in the American oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in the Gulf of Mexico: a field study.

One of the major impacts of climate change has been the marked rise in global temperature. Recently, we demonstrated that high temperatures (1-week exposure) disrupt prooxidant-antioxidant homeostasis and promote cellular apoptosis in the American oyster. In this study, we evaluated the effects of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) on tissue morphology, extrapallial fluid (EPF) conditions, heat shock protein-70 (HSP70), dinitrophenyl protein (DNP, an indicator of reactive oxygen species, ROS), 3-nitrotyrosine protein (NTP, an indicator of RNS), catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD) protein expressions, and cellular apoptosis in gills and digestive glands of oysters collected on the southern Texas coast during the winter (15°C), spring (24°C), summer (30°C), and fall (27°C). Histological observations of both tissues showed a notable increase in mucus production and an enlargement of the digestive gland lumen with seasonal temperature rise, whereas biochemical analyses exhibited a significant decrease in EPF pH and protein concentration. Immunohistochemical analyses showed higher expression of HSP70 along with the expression of DNP and NTP in oyster tissues during summer. Intriguingly, CAT and SOD protein expressions exhibited significant upregulation with rising seasonal temperatures (15 to 27°C), which decreased significantly in summer (30°C), leaving oysters vulnerable to oxidative and nitrative damage. qRT-PCR analysis revealed a significant increase in HSP70 mRNA levels in oyster tissues during the warmer seasons. In situ TUNNEL assay showed a significant increase in apoptotic cells in seasons with high temperature. These results suggest that elevated SST induces oxidative/nitrative stress through the overproduction of ROS/RNS and disrupts the antioxidant system which promotes cellular apoptosis in oysters.

Epidemiological, ecological and clinico-laboratory characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Saint-Petersburg and suburb

The goal is to identify the epidemiological, territorial-epidemiological, environmental, clinical and features of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in order to improve epidemiological surveillance in a large metropolis of the Northwestern Federal District.Materials and methods. An epidemiological analysis of cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in St. Petersburg for 2005–2019 was carried out and the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of 135 patients hospitalized in the S.P. Botkin Clinical Infectious Disease Hospital were studied. 70 patients identified combined HFRS diseases associated with other pathogens of viral and bacterial nature. An epidemiological analysis of cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in St. Petersburg for 2005–2018 and long-term monitoring of the zoological, epizootological state of small mammals in several districts of St. Petersburg and its suburbs were carried out. The clinical and epidemiological characteristics of 135 patients were studied, of which 70 patients identified combined hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome diseases associated with other pathogens of a viral and bacterial nature. To assess the epizootological situation, trapped rodents were examined for the presence of viral antigen and antibodies using the method of indirect immunofluorescence with the Xantagnost diagnosticum and enzymelinked immunosorbent assay.Results. The long-term dynamics of the incidence rate in St. Petersburg had a fluctuant rising character with two peaks. The proportion of diseases during the first rise was 11,5%, the second – 44,2% of the long-term incidence. Men prevailed in the age groups of 20-49 years without changes in periods. The proportion of women 20–49 years old was 20,7%, increased to 52,8 % in age groups over 50 years old. When distributed by month in a period of high incidence, the seasonal rise began in September with a peak in October. Infection with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome patients – residents of the city occurred mainly (with 35.5%), in the nearby territories of the Northwestern Federal District with 8.9% - in remote areas and with 5,9% in the countries of near and far abroad. The epidemiological situation in places of temporary residence and infection of people was characterized by an increase in the number of small mammals (redbacked voles) and, in particular, infection from 2,9 to 4,4%. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome diseases occurred in the form of moderate severity in 94,4% cases. Severe forms were found in only 5,6% of cases. In the structure of combined infection in 25,9–22,3%, there was a combination of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome with gastroenterocolitis and influenza, serologically confirmed. In 17,6% of cases, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was combined with other zoonoses (Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis, pseudotuberculosis, leptospirosis, tularemia), in 17,6% with of various etiologies. The presence of combinations of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome with other infections complicates the clinical diagnosis.

Unsaturated Flow Processes and the Onset of Seasonal Deformation in Slow‐Moving Landslides

AbstractPredicting rainfall‐induced landslide motion is challenging because shallow groundwater flow is extremely sensitive to the preexisting moisture content in the ground. Here, we use groundwater hydrology theory and numerical modeling combined with five years of field monitoring to illustrate how unsaturated groundwater flow processes modulate the seasonal pore water pressure rise and therefore the onset of motion for slow‐moving landslides. The onset of landslide motion at Oak Ridge earthflow in California’s Diablo Range occurs after an abrupt water table rise to near the landslide surface 52–129 days after seasonal rainfall commences. Model results and theory suggest that this abrupt rise occurs from the advection of a nearly saturated wetting front, which marks the leading edge of the integrated downward flux of seasonal rainfall, to the water table. Prior to this abrupt rise, we observe little measured pore water pressure response within the landslide due to rainfall. However, once the wetting front reaches the water table, we observe nearly instantaneous pore water pressure transmission within the landslide body that is accompanied by landslide acceleration. We cast the timescale to reach a critical pore water pressure threshold using a simple mass balance model that considers variable moisture storage with depth and explains the onset of seasonal landslide motion with a rainfall intensity‐duration threshold. Our model shows that the seasonal response time of slow‐moving landslides is controlled by the dry season vadose zone depth rather than the total landslide thickness.

Predicting groundwater rise in historical centres of Eastern Siberian cities

The purpose of the research work is to develop a procedure for on-line prediction of the groundwater hydrodynamic mode change caused by the barrage effect of deep foundation structure construction. The main method used is the development of an analytical model as a result of variant solutions of the Laplace equation. The solutions have been elaborated in the course of studies conducted in historical centers of Irkutsk and other cities of Eastern Siberia. As a result, diagrams predicting the formation depth of groundwater level have been created, and the territories have been assessed according to their flooding conditions. An analytical model has been developed for backwater prediction. The model is rather simple, universal and can be applied for predictive calculations on the territories of historical cities located in similar geological and hydrogeological conditions. The available material analyzed, it is concluded that preliminary vertical planning of the territory, correct approach to foundation type selection as well as seasonal rise of underground water play a significant role in the formation of a new headwater elevation.