Peak Of Season Research Articles

Insights into climate change dynamics: A tourism climate index-based evaluation of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

The tourism industry is a significant contribution to the economy of many countries, including Pakistan. However, its activities often have a negative impact on the environment, particularly related to climate change. Notably, Pakistan ranks fifth among countries most affected by climate change, which requires a targeted analysis of the tourism sector to determine its potential impacts. Despite the critical nature of this issue, there is currently a lack of research that examines how climate change specifically impacts Pakistan's tourism industry. This study aims to address this gap by using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to assess the impact of climate change on the suitability of different tourism locations across the country. Our results show that popular tourist destinations such as Gilgit-Baltistan experience their peak season in the warmer third quarter (summer), which corresponds to the highest observed TCI values. This suggests that warmer temperatures could boost tourism activity and spending in these regions. Furthermore, our analysis shows that air temperature plays a crucial role in determining tourist comfort levels and significantly influences tourists' TCI values and sensory experiences. The results of this study show that the TCI methodology can be an effective tool for further research into the geographical impacts of climate change on tourism. By identifying necessary changes due to climatic changes, future studies could provide valuable insights into how the tourism industry can adapt to and reduce its environmental footprint.

Assessment of the effectiveness of coarse resolution fire products in monitoring long-term changes in fire regime within protected areas in South Africa

Although high-resolution satellite and in situ airborne observations are becoming a common data source for fire monitoring, reconstruction of the historical fire record is based on less suitable data. In many regions, managers and policy-makers rely solely on coarse resolution global fire datasets. This study assessed the suitability of readily available products to accurately depict several fire metrics by comparing them to the manually derived fire scars within three natural reserves in South Africa (2003–2020). Contrary to previous findings, we showed that MCD64A1 and FireCCI51 products detected the majority of the burned area (70–97 %) within protected areas and showed high temporal consistency. Additionally, active and burned area products accurately detected the length and the peak of the fire season. Nonetheless, we found neither medium nor coarse resolution data suitable for evaluating long-term changes in fire size distribution. Coarse resolution burned area products demonstrated a very limited capacity to detect fires smaller than 100 ha, while a lack of sufficient non-cloudy Landsat images led to substantial gaps in fire reconstruction, bringing an unknown level of uncertainties in fire metrics estimates. Similarly, the only available medium-resolution burned area product (GABAM) was unsuitable for fire monitoring since unmapped areas were classified as unburned, making no distinction between regions with an absence of data and an absence of fires. Meanwhile, the performance of FireCCILT11 was ranked the lowest among all the available fire products. Given the lack of resources in many protected areas in South Africa and the pressing need to evaluate current and historical fire management practices and policies, we conclude that, in the absence of a more accurate higher-resolution alternative, MCD64A1 was the most suitable product for capturing year-to-year fluctuations in fire activity and a combination of MODIS and VIIRS active fire products for monitoring changes in fire seasonality.

Beyond the mosquito sting: Guillain-Barre Syndrome following malarial seasonal surge

Background and objective: Malaria, a prevalent disease most commonly caused by Plasmodium vivax and falciparum, frequently leads to intricate neurological complications. The objective of this study was to study Guillain-Barre syndrome as a prevalent neurological manifestation of malaria. Methods: A cross-sectional observational study was undertaken at Neurology Department of Chandka Medical College Hospital in Larkana, from April 2023 to September 2023 during the seasonal peak of malaria. The study included 20 patients who met the specified criteria. SPSS version 23.0 was used for data analysis. Results: Among the 20 patients who developed Guillain-Barre Syndrome following malaria infection, 18 exhibited axonal degeneration, while three had the demyelinating variety. The majority of cases presented with a combination of sensory and motor nerve involvement. Encouragingly, the prognosis was favorable, with a 70% recovery rate. Conclusion: Our study highlights a significant association between Guillain-Barré Syndrome and post-malaria complications, with a overall positive prognosis.

Forecast models for start and peak dates of Poaceae pollen season in Tétouan (NW Morocco) using multiple regression analysis.

Poaceae pollen is one of the most widespread sources of aeroallergens in the world. The aim of this study is to build predictive models for the pollen season start day (PSsd) and peak dates of the Poaceae pollen season and thus give an overview of the climatic parameters that have the greatest influence. In Tétouan, sampling was carried out using a volumetric spore trap of the Burkard Hirst type. The relationships between the PSsd, peak dates and meteorological parameters were determined using correlation analysis. The models were constructed using multiple regression analysis with data from 2008 to 2019 and tested on data from 2022. The PSsd was especially significantly influenced by minimum temperature during winter and precipitation in the autumn of the previous year. The peak dates were significantly correlated with precipitation in January, March and April, but not with temperature. Three models were obtained for each of the season's parameters; the most accurate model for the PSsd explained a variability of 61% and includes as main predictors rainfall from the autumn of the previous year and the mean daily average temperature from 23 February to 8 March. The two most efficient peak dates models included precipitation in January and April as the main predictor variables, and explained greater variability (87 and 88%). Precipitation in autumn and the mean daily and the sum of minimum temperature in winter, showed significant decreasing tendencies. However, the PSsd trend delay was not statistically significant. This study draws the importance of the weather during preseason for grass pollen production and emphasises the usefulness of the models for allergic patients to take preventive measures and for healthcare professionals in allergy therapy.

The oxidative potential of fine ambient particulate matter in Xinxiang, North China: Pollution characteristics, source identification and regional transport

Atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can trigger the production of cytotoxic reactive oxygen species (ROS), which can trigger or exacerbate oxidative stress and pulmonary inflammation. We collected 111 daily (∼24 h) ambient PM2.5 samples within an urban region of North China during four seasons of 2019–2020. PM2.5 samples were examined for carbonaceous components, water–soluble ions, and elements, together with their oxidative potential (represent ROS–producing ability) by DTT assay. The seasonal peak DTTv was recorded in winter (2.86 ± 1.26 nmol min−1 m−3), whereas the DTTm was the highest in summer (40.6 ± 8.7 pmol min−1 μg−1). WSOC displayed the highest correlation with DTT activity (r = 0.84, p < 0.0001), but the influence of WSOC on the elevation of DTTv was extremely negligible. Combustion source exhibited the most significant and robust correlation with the elevation of DTTv according to the linear mixed–effects model result. Source identification investigation using positive matrix factorization displayed that combustion source (36.2%), traffic source (30.7%), secondary aerosol (15.7%), and dust (14.1%) were driving the DTTv, which were similar to the results from the multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. Backward trajectory analysis revealed that the major air masses originate from local and regional transportation, but PM2.5 OP was more susceptible to the influence of short–distance transport clusters. Discerning the influence of chemicals on health–pertinent attributes of PM2.5, such as OP, could facilitate a deep understanding of the cause–and–effect relationship between PM2.5 and impacts.

Human mobility patterns in Brazil to inform sampling sites for early pathogen detection and routes of spread: a network modelling and validation study

Detecting and foreseeing pathogen dispersion is crucial in preventing widespread disease transmission. Human mobility is a fundamental issue in human transmission of infectious agents. Through a mobility data-driven approach, we aimed to identify municipalities in Brazil that could comprise an advanced sentinel network, allowing for early detection of circulating pathogens and their associated transmission routes. In this modelling and validation study, we compiled a comprehensive dataset on intercity mobility spanning air, road, and waterway transport from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2016 data), National Transport Confederation (2022), and National Civil Aviation Agency (2017-23). We constructed a graph-based representation of Brazil's mobility network. The Ford-Fulkerson algorithm was used to rank the 5570 Brazilian cities according to their suitability as sentinel locations, allowing us to predict the most suitable locations for early detection and to track the most likely trajectory of a newly emerged pathogen. We also obtained SARS-CoV-2 genetic data from Brazilian municipalities during the early stage (Feb 25-April 30, 2020) of the virus's introduction and the gamma (P.1) variant emergence in Manaus (Jan 6-March 1, 2021), for the purposes of model validation. We found that flights alone transported 79·9 million (95% CI 58·3-101·4 million) passengers annually within Brazil during 2017-22, with seasonal peaks occurring in late spring and summer, and road and river networks had a maximum capacity of 78·3 million passengers weekly in 2016. By analysing the 7 746 479 most probable paths originating from source nodes, we found that 3857 cities fully cover the mobility pattern of all 5570 cities in Brazil, 557 (10·0%) of which cover 6 313 380 (81·5%) of the mobility patterns in our study. By strategically incorporating mobility patterns into Brazil's existing influenza-like illness surveillance network (ie, by switching the location of 111 of 199 sentinel sites to different municipalities), our model predicted that mobility coverage would have a 33·6% improvement from 4 059 155 (52·4%) mobility patterns to 5 422 535 (70·0%) without expanding the number of sentinel sites. Our findings are validated with genomic data collected during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic period. Our model accurately mapped 22 (51%) of 43 clade 1-affected cities and 28 (60%) of 47 clade 2-affected cities spread from São Paulo city, and 20 (49%) of 41 clade 1-affected cities and 28 (58%) of 48 clade 2-affected cities spread from Rio de Janeiro city, Feb 25-April 30, 2020. Additionally, 224 (73%) of the 307 suggested early-detection locations for pathogens emerging in Manaus corresponded with the first cities affected by the transmission of the gamma variant, Jan 6-16, 2021. By providing essential clues for effective pathogen surveillance, our results have the potential to inform public health policy and improve future pandemic response efforts. Our results unlock the potential of designing country-wide clinical sample collection networks with mobility data-informed approaches, an innovative practice that can improve current surveillance systems. Rockefeller Foundation.

Complex and highly saturated soundscapes in restored oak woodlands reflect avian richness and abundance.

Temperate woodlands are biodiverse natural communities threatened by land use change and fire suppression. Excluding historic disturbance regimes of periodic groundfires from woodlands causes degradation, resulting from changes in the plant community and subsequent biodiversity loss. Restoration, through prescribed fire and tree thinning, can reverse biodiversity losses, however, because the diversity of woodland species spans many taxa, efficiently quantifying biodiversity can be challenging. We assessed whether soundscapes in an eastern North American woodland reflect biodiversity changes during restoration measured in a concurrent multitrophic field study. In five restored and five degraded woodland sites in Wisconsin, USA, we sampled vegetation, measured arthropod biomass, conducted bird surveys, and recorded soundscapes for five days of every 15-day period from May to August 2022. We calculated two complementary acoustic indices: Soundscape Saturation, which focuses on all acoustically active species, and Acoustic Complexity Index (ACI), which was developed to study vocalizing birds. We used generalized additive models to predict both indices based on Julian date, time of day, and level of habitat degradation. We found that restored woodlands had higher arthropod biomass, and higher richness and abundance of breeding birds. Additionally, soundscapes in restored sites had higher mean Soundscape Saturation and higher mean ACI. Restored woodland acoustic indices exhibited greater magnitudes of daily and seasonal peaks. We conclude that woodland restoration results in higher soundscape saturation and complexity, due to greater richness and abundance of vocalizing animals. This bioacoustic signature of restoration offers a promising monitoring tool for efficiently documenting differences in woodland biodiversity.

Spring resting egg production of the calanoid copepod, Eurytemora affinis, in a freshet-dominated estuary.

Seasonal peaks in river discharge, such as snowmelt-dominated freshets, are predictable events that can have a large effect on flushing rates and salinity in estuaries. Resting eggs, which many coastal and estuarine copepods produce for overwintering or aestivation, could also serve to bridge predictable peaks in river discharge. We assessed the timing of resting egg production of the egg-carrying estuarine copepod, Eurytemora affinis (Poppe), in relation to river discharge in the Fraser River Estuary, Canada. Approximately 30 field-collected females were individually incubated on 12 occasions over the period February 2015-May 2016. Eurytemora affinis abundance and population structure were investigated from vertical net tow samples collected twice monthly to monthly. Resting eggs occurred primarily in May 2015 and May 2016 (6.5 and 9.2 eggs day-1, respectively), a month prior to peak flows, and the proportion of offspring that were resting eggs increased with river discharge. Eurytemora affinis reached a minimum abundance in July 2015, when the population was dominated by adults (86%). Resting egg production in E. affinis is typically considered an overwintering mechanism but we suggest that the ultimate driver of resting egg production in this population is avoidance of flushing and/or low salinities.

Bionomic characterization of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Ethiopian highlands and lowlands

BackgroundThe protective effectiveness of vector control in malaria relies on how the implemented tools overlap with mosquito species-specific compositions and bionomic traits. In Ethiopia, targeted entomological data enabling strategic decision-making are lacking around high-risk migrant worker camps in the lowlands and resident communities in the highlands—resulting in suboptimal malaria control strategies for both populations. This study investigates spatial and temporal mosquito behavior, generating baseline evidence that will improve malaria control for both migrant workers in the lowlands and their home communities in the highlands.MethodsHourly Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap collections were performed indoors and outdoors during the peak (October to December 2022) and minor (March to May 2023) malaria transmission seasons. These seasons coincide with the post-long rain and post-short rain seasons, respectively. Eight resident households were sampled from each of four villages in the highlands and eight households/farm structures on and near farms in four villages in the lowlands. The sampling occurred between 18:00 and 06:00. Spatiotemporal vector behaviors and hourly indoor and outdoor mosquito capture rates, used as a proxy for human biting rates, were calculated for overall catches and for individual species. Adult mosquitoes were identified using morphological keys, and a subset of samples were confirmed to species by sequencing ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer region 2 (ITS2) and/or mitochondrial DNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (Cox1).ResultsIn the highlands, 4697 Anopheles mosquitoes belonging to 13 morphologically identified species were collected. The predominant species of Anopheles identified in the highlands was An. gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) (n = 1970, 41.9%), followed by An. demeilloni (n = 1133, 24.1%) and An. cinereus (n = 520, 11.0%). In the lowland villages, 3220 mosquitoes belonging to 18 morphological species were collected. Anopheles gambiae s.l. (n = 1190, 36.9%), An. pretoriensis (n = 899, 27.9%), and An. demeilloni (n = 564, 17.5%) were the predominant species. A total of 20 species were identified molecularly, of which three could not be identified to species through comparison with published sequences. In highland villages, the indoor Anopheles mosquito capture rate was much greater than the outdoor rate. This trend reversed in the lowlands, where the rate of outdoor captures was greater than the indoor rate. In both highlands and lowlands, Anopheles mosquitoes showed early biting activities in the evening, which peaked between 18:00 and 21:00, for both indoor and outdoor locations.ConclusionsThe high diversity of Anopheles vectors and their variable behaviors result in a dynamic and resilient transmission system impacting both exposure to infectious bites and intervention effectiveness. This creates gaps in protection allowing malaria transmission to persist. To achieve optimal control, one-size-fits-all strategies must be abandoned, and interventions should be tailored to the diverse spatiotemporal behaviors of different mosquito populations.Graphical

Design and Construction of a Mixed-Mode Natural Convection Solar Dryer for Mango Slices

Fruits like mangoes are produced in large quantities during the peak season, and high postharvest losses occur due to lack of appropriate storage and handling structures. The main goal of this study was to design and construct a mixed-mode natural convection (MMNC) solar dryer for drying of mango slices. The dryer was designed using AutoCAD and constructed with wood and glass using basic woodworking tools and processes. The developed dryer has a direct collector, a vertical collector, and an indirect collector. The drying chamber has two removable frames with 5 shelves each, a total drying area of 2.54 m2 and a capacity of 10 kg of mango slices per batch. The dryer is fitted with caster wheels for easy turning and positioning. Test conducted with 940 g of fresh mango slices resulted in effective drying after 17 hours, from a moisture content of approximately 90% (wb) reduced to 17% (wb). The drying rate was found to be 4.3%/hr. The maximum temperature obtained in the drying chamber was 54.3 ℃ at a maximum ambient temperature of 37.6 ℃. The average temperature-rise in the drying chamber compared to the ambient temperature was 11.5 ℃. The dryer is therefore recommended for use both domestically and by small-scale food processors since it is more hygienic and has proven to be more efficient than open-air sun drying.

Morphologic and phylogenetic investigations revealed size-divergent clades in chelae morphotypes of freshwater prawn Macrobrachium vollenhovenii Herklots (Decapoda: Palaemonidae) in a lake and river system of Southwest Nigeria

BackgroundThe freshwater prawn Macrobrachium vollenhovenii is one of the largest Macrobrachium species, a biological agent against human schistosomiasis, and a cheap protein source in riverine communities in West Africa. However, its aquaculture development for sustainable utilization is challenged by cryptic identity amidst the presence of morphotypes of unknown size and genetic relatedness. This study aimed to investigate the maximum sizes and evolutionary links of chelae morphotypes in M. vollenhovenii for precise identification and utilization in a 3 × 2 randomized block experimental design. Ninety biggest encountered samples of M. vollenhovenii chelae morphotypes—those possessing equal left and right side chelae, longer left chelae, and shorter left chelae—were obtained from fisherfolks’ catches at each of Asejire Lake and Ogun River during peak seasons (July–September) bimonthly field survey, representing EAAL, LLAL, SLAL—GAALs, and EAOR, LLOR, SLOR—GAORs. These were analyzed for differences (p < 0.05) in size-linked parameters—length (L (cm)), weight (W (g)), and condition factor (K). Specimens’ 16S rRNA nucleotide sequences were utilized to infer phylogenetic linkages, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and amino acid translations alongside NCBI references (NCBIrefseq).ResultsWeight (W) and condition factor (K), among GAALs, for SLAL and LLAL were similar; EAAL was significantly lowest; among GAORs, SLOR and LLOR were similar; and EAOR was significantly lowest. In GAALs, EAAL, LLAL, and SLAL had higher L, W, and K than counterpart GAORs. Sequences formed two polyphyletic groups: EAOR branch from EAAL, in which 100.0%EA rooted 75.0% NCBIrefseqs, forming a clade; and GAOR-SLOR and LLOR branch form GAOR-LLAL rooted SLAL, in which 100.0%LL and SL rooted KJ463387.1 (Badagry), forming another clade. SNP Locus 91 separated 100.0%GAOR from 100.0%GAAL and 100.0%NCBIrefseqs translating to valine; SNP Locus 171 separated 100.0%EA and its co-rooted NCBIrefseqs from 100.0%LL, SL, and their co-rooted NCBIrefseq, translating to glycine/glutamic acid change.ConclusionThe equal left and right side chelae and the unequal left and right side chelae specimens are, respectively, small- and robust-sized, irrespective of habitat. They are divergent size-linked clades having protein translate differences, delineable at 16S rRNA SNP Locus 171; their size variant habitat strains are delineable at SNP Locus 91. These SNP markers will be useful for precision identification and selection of the size variant chelae morph strains for sustainable utilization.

Clinico-Laboratory Profile and Outcome of Kawasaki Disease in Children in a Tertiary Care Hospital in Kathmandu

Introduction: Kawasaki disease (KD) is one of the most common vasculitis of childhood. It contributes significantly to acquired heart disease in children and results in coronary artery abnormalities including aneurysm in 25% of untreated children. This study aims to retrospectively assess the clinical course, laboratory results, and presenting symptoms of patients with complete and incomplete KD treated at tertiary care hospital in Kathmandu.Method: This retrospective study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics. Data from January 2020 to December 2020 were retrieved from medical records department of the hospital and analyzed using Microsoft excel.Result: The total number of cases evaluated in our study was 9. The median age at the time of the diagnosis of KD was 24 months (median age for incomplete KD-21 months, complete KD-37 months). Male to female ratio was 1.2:1. The peak season of KD occurrence was Spring (March – May). Mean duration of stay in the hospital was 7 days. All children presented with fever, with an mean fever duration of 7 days at the time of presentation. Fever was present in every case. The most common principal symptom was a polymorphous skin rash, observed in 88% of the cases. Elevated CRP levels (≥3 mg/dl) were noted in all 9 cases. Cardiovascular complications were present in 88% of the patients, with coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) detected in 11%, coronary artery dilation in 22%, and mild pericardial effusion documented in 66% of the cases. Eight patients (88%) received IVIG, all 9 patients (100%) received aspirin, and 2 patients received steroids. There were no fatalities.Conclusion: KD is a common vasculitis in children which do not have significant sex predilection in oppose to most of the studies. Majority of cases occurred in spring season. The most common symptom was polymorphous rash. A high level of suspicion for diagnosing KD is essential, and early treatment is crucial to prevent complications and reduce the future economic burden on families and the nation.

Climatology and convective mode of severe hail in the United Kingdom

Severe or large hail, with diameter ≥20 mm, is a hazard associated with severe convective storms that can cause significant damage. In the UK, the rarity and small footprint of severe hail events makes obtaining well-documented hail reports difficult, and the reports are spread across multiple databases. In this study, three databases of UK severe hail reports are merged for the first time. The combined event set (1979–2022), comprising >800 reports, is used to investigate interannual variability and the seasonal, spatial and size distributions of severe hail. The seasonal cycle peaks in early–mid summer, and the peak month has shifted from June to July since around 2005. The distribution of reported hail size is exponential, with a slower decay (larger hail) during summer. The time of day, basic convective mode (isolated, clustered or linear), and presence or absence of supercellular characteristics are assessed for 274 of the reports since 2006, using composite radar rainrate data. The diurnal cycle is strong year-round, peaking during the late afternoon (1500–1800 UTC). 53% of severe hail events are associated with isolated cells, 33% with clusters, and 14% with linear storms. Around 35% of severe hail-producing storms are probable supercells, increasing to 70% for storms producing ≥40 mm hail. This demonstrates that the prevalence of supercells producing very large hail extends to temperate maritime climates. These results may be of relevance in other regions with a relatively low incidence of severe hail in the present climate. This comprehensive analysis of severe and potentially impactful hail in the UK provides novel insight into its characteristics, enabling improved assessment of climate risk from this hazard.

Seasonal Dynamics of Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Infections in Coendemic Low-Transmission Settings, South Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has a plan to eliminate malaria in selected low-transmission districts by 2025. However, complex factors such as seasonality, focal heterogeneity, and coendemicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, and asymptomatic cases, along with other factors, pose challenges. This longitudinal study assessed these dynamics and associated factors in three elimination-targeted settings in southern Ethiopia. The study included rural districts (Wonago and Yirgacheffe) and an urban setting (Dilla town) with 504 participants from 168 households per season. The study covered the peak and minor malaria transmission seasons and the dry season. Finger-prick blood was collected for microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests, and 18S-rRNA-based quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). During the dry season, P. vivax accounted for most infections (64.5%, 71/110) and symptomatic malaria (50.9%, 29/57), whereas P. falciparum dominated during the peak transmission season (45.7%, 42/92 infections and 58.1%, 25/43 of symptomatic cases). Treatment-seeking behavior was low, with 65.3% (143/219) of symptomatic individuals not seeking treatment. Dilla town had significantly higher infection prevalence (29.6%, 149/504, P <0.001) in all seasons compared with the rural sites. The incidence rate was 12/1,000 person-seasons by qPCR and 5/1,000 person-seasons by microscopy. Urban residents, those with low hemoglobin levels, nonuse of mosquito nets, and proximity to stagnant water had a significantly higher risk of infection (P <0.001). Tailored approaches are needed in elimination-targeted areas, focusing on urban settings, Plasmodium species, and strengthening community-level interventions for behavioral change and active case detection.

Understanding motivational determinants of gastronomic tourism during peak seasons. Empirical evidence from Latacunga City in Central Ecuador

Abstract This empirical study examines the motivational determinants driving the consumption of traditional local food and beverages in Latacunga in Central Ecuador (South America). This geographical area embraces a rich cultural and historical heritage, making it a year-round destination for tourists looking to experience its unique local cuisine and festivals. An online survey was conducted between September 2021 and February 2022, during which 445 valid questionnaires were collected; these were quantitatively analysed using binary logistic regression analysis. Model-based findings revealed that age, taste, health and safety concerns, cultural experience, and expenditure were the most significant factors influencing the consumption of traditional local food and beverages. This information will help understand tourists’ behaviour concerning gastronomic tourism, and help develop optimal positioning, branding, and marketing strategies for sustainable development at top-ranking destinations, particularly cities in Central Ecuador and other international cities featuring similar tourism characteristics.

Phenological responses of alpine snowbed communities to advancing snowmelt.

Climate change is leading to advanced snowmelt date in alpine regions. Consequently, alpine plant species and ecosystems experience substantial changes due to prolonged phenological seasons, while the responses, mechanisms and implications remain widely unclear. In this 3-year study, we investigated the effects of advancing snowmelt on the phenology of alpine snowbed species. We related microclimatic drivers to species and ecosystem phenology using in situ monitoring and phenocams. We further used predictive modelling to determine whether early snowmelt sites could be used as sentinels for future conditions. Temperature during the snow-free period primarily influenced flowering phenology, followed by snowmelt timing. Salix herbacea and Gnaphalium supinum showed the most opportunistic phenology, while annual Euphrasia minima struggled to complete its phenology in short growing seasons. Phenological responses varied more between years than sites, indicating potential local long-term adaptations and suggesting these species' potential to track future earlier melting dates. Phenocams captured ecosystem-level phenology (start, peak and end of phenological season) but failed to explain species-level variance. Our findings highlight species-specific responses to advancing snowmelt, with snowbed species responding highly opportunistically to changes in snowmelt timings while following species-specific developmental programs. While species from surrounding grasslands may benefit from extended growing seasons, snowbed species may become outcompeted due to internal-clock-driven, non-opportunistic senescence, despite displaying a high level of phenological plasticity.

KARAKTER SPASIAL DAN TEMPORAL CURAH HUJAN BULANAN KABUPATEN JEMBER BERDASARKAN DATA CHIRPS

Jember Regency is one of the national food storage areas. One of the most important resources in cultivating food crops is water which comes from rainfall. The existence of rainfall data is very important in planning and implementing agricultural activities. Limited rainfall data is the main problem for agricultural planning. One solution to this problem is to utilize rainfall data from CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation Station). The use of CHIRPS data is still biased data, so bias correction is needed to measure the level of accuracy of CHIRPS data for estimating rainfall in an area. Bias correction is carried out using two methods, namely multiple linear regression and power regression. The correction results show that the multiple linear regression method is able to produce monthly rainfall that is close to observations with an RMSE value of 3.9 and a coefficient of determination of 0.99. Temporally, the peak of the rainy season in Jember Regency occurs in December while the dry season is in August. In the rainy season (December-January and February) Jember Regency's rainfall is around 300-500 mm/month and in the dry season (June-July-August) it is in the range of 50-200 mm/month. Spatially, the northern part of Jember, especially Sumberbaru, Bangsalsari and Tanggul subdistricts, is wetter than the Jember Regency area as a whole. The southern part of Jember, especially those close to the coast, has lower rainfall than other regions. In the dry season, rainfall in this region is less than 20 mm/month.

Shifting spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of dengue incidence and associated meteorological factors in Jazan Region of Saudi Arabia from 2015-2020.

Dengue poses a considerable public health threat in Saudi Arabia, with escalating outbreaks in Jazan, where seasonal rains create ideal mosquito breeding conditions. Elucidating local epidemiological dynamics is imperative to strengthen evidence-based prevention policies. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal, demographic, and meteorological patterns of dengue in Jazan from 2015-2020. This retrospective cross-sectional study utilized surveillance records for 3427 confirmed dengue cases. Descriptive analyses characterized geographic, seasonal, age, gender, and nationality distributions. Forecasting models project expected epidemics through 2025. Regression analysis identified climate factors associated with monthly case counts. Dengue exhibited shifting seasonal peaks, transitioning into year-round transmission by 2019, indicating endemic establishment. Cases clustered in different high-burden sectors annually, requiring localized vector control. The majority of affected individuals were young male adults, with gender gaps narrowing over time. Saudi nationals had an escalating incidence, but non-citizens showed a higher risk, signaling importation threats. Seasonal outbreaks were associated with temperature, wind speed, and direction. Enhanced surveillance, outbreak forecasting, targeted control activities, and integrated prevention policies grounded in continuous evidence assessment can effectively address endemic dengue transmission in Jazan. This study provides key insights to optimize data-driven decision-making for dengue control in Saudi Arabia.

Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water.

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

Weakened connection between spring leaf-out and autumn senescence in the Northern Hemisphere.

Vegetation autumn phenology is critical in regulating the ecosystem carbon cycle and regional climate. However, the dominant drivers of autumn senescence and their temporal shifts under climate change remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a multi-factor analysis considering both direct climatic controls and biological carryover effects from start-of-season (SOS) and seasonal peak vegetation activities on the end-of-season (EOS) to fill these knowledge gaps. Combining satellite and ground observations across the northern hemisphere, we found that carryover effects from early-to-peak vegetation activities exerted greater influence on EOS than the direct climatic controls on nearly half of the vegetated land. Unexpectedly, the carryover effects from SOS on EOS have significantly weakened over recent decades, accompanied by strengthened climatic controls. Such results indicate the weakened constraint of leaf longevity on senescence due to prolonged growing season in response to climate change. These findings underscore the important role of biological carryover effects in regulating vegetation autumn senescence under climate change, which should be incorporated into the formulation and enhancement of phenology modules utilized in land surface models.