Sea Surface Temperature Variability Research Articles

On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends

AbstractThe year‐to‐year rate and acceleration of the changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1870–2022 are determined using non‐linear techniques. Our methodology identifies the non‐linear, long‐term tendencies of the warming, revealing subtle but essential features of the SST changes that are impossible to identify by linear techniques. Our analysis identifies inhomogeneous patterns of SST evolution. For instance, in most equatorial regions, including the western Pacific, the acceleration of the warming is positive, and sustained warming replaces the cooling at the beginning of the records. On the contrary, the warming acceleration in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is negative, indicating a sustained warming at the beginning of the record that weakens over the years, resulting in a stagnated warming or even a cooling in recent years. We identify a strong warming with a negative acceleration for the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that this warming is part of the multidecadal variability of SST rather than a long‐term trend.

Rapid decrease of the Labrador Sea’s influence on black spruce ecosystems with distance inland

In eastern Canada, Black spruce (Picea mariana Mill. B.S.P.) grows in a wide variety of climates, from maritime-oceanic conditions near the Labrador Sea, to more continental climates, inland. Along this gradient, timing and provenance of heat and moisture that support growth are uncertain, weakening our capacity to predict the response of boreal ecosystems to climate variability. Here, we measured the stable oxygen isotopic composition of black spruce tree-ring cellulose at three sites in eastern Canada and provide evidence of a rapid decrease of Labrador Sea’s influence on adjacent ecosystems. Our results report a landwards decrease in the oxygen isotope composition of both tree-ring cellulose (δ18OTRC) and precipitation water (δ18Op). We also reveal a rapid landwards decoupling between δ18OTRC variability (1950-2013), maximum temperature and Sea Surface Temperature variations over the Northwest Atlantic. Thus, despite their apparent ecological homogeneity, eastern Canada’s black spruce ecosystems rely on heterogeneous sources of heat and moisture.

Multi-decadal pacemaker simulations with an intermediate-complexity climate model

Abstract. In this paper, we first describe the main features of a new version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics global atmospheric model (SPEEDY) with improved simulation of surface fluxes and the formulation of a three-layer thermodynamic ocean model (TOM3) suitable to explore the coupled extratropical response to tropical ocean variability. Then, we present results on the atmospheric model climatology, highlighting the impact of the modifications introduced in the model code, and show how important features of interdecadal and interannual variability are simulated in a “pacemaker” coupled ensemble of 70-year runs, where portions of the tropical Indo-Pacific are constrained to follow the observed variability. Despite the very basic representation of variations in greenhouse forcing and heat transport to the deep ocean (below the 300 m domain of the TOM3 model), the coupled ensemble reproduces the variations in surface temperature over land and sea with very good accuracy, confirming the role of the Indo-Pacific as a “pacemaker” for the natural fluctuations of global-mean surface temperatures found in earlier studies. Atmospheric zonal-mean temperature trends over 50 years are also realistically simulated in the extratropical lower troposphere and up to 100 hPa in the tropics. On the interannual scale, sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in sub-tropical and tropical regions not affected by SST relaxation is underestimated (mostly because of the absence of dynamically induced variability), while extratropical SST variability during the cold seasons is comparable to that observed. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their connections with SST are reproduced with high fidelity, although with local differences in the amplitude of regional features (such as a larger-than-observed response of extratropical SST to North Atlantic Oscillation variability). The SPEEDY-TOM3 model also reproduces the observed connection between averages of surface heat fluxes over the oceans and land surface air temperature in the wintertime northern extratropics. Overall, as in earlier versions of SPEEDY, the fidelity of the simulations (both in terms of climatological means and variability) is higher near the surface and in the lower troposphere, while the negative impacts of the coarse vertical resolution and simplified parameterizations are mostly felt in the stratosphere. However, the improved simulation of surface heat fluxes and their impact on extratropical SST variability in this model version (obtained at a very modest computational cost) make the SPEEDY-TOM3 model a suitable tool to investigate the coupled response of the extratropical circulation to interannual and inter-decadal changes of tropical SST in ensemble experiments.

Enhanced North Pacific Victoria mode in a warming climate

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), renowned as the dominant sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation in the North Pacific and extensively scrutinized for its extensive influence on global climate patterns, stands in stark contrast to the Victoria mode (VM). Traditionally, the VM, representing the second most prominent SST pattern in the North Pacific, has not garnered comparable attention. However, our investigation unveils a remarkable surge in the low-frequency VM variability, spanning periods greater than 8 years, over the course of a century. Astonishingly, this enhanced VM variability now surpasses the PDO’s variability in recent decades, signifying a notable shift. Consequently, the heightened VM variability assumes newfound significance in shaping climate systems across the entire North Pacific region and in distant locales. This intensified VM behavior could be attributed to amplified atmospheric variability in the Hawaiian region, primarily stemming from the reinforced variability in the tropical central Pacific (CP) SST in recent decades. As greenhouse warming escalates CP SST variability, the VM’s enhanced variability may further intensify, yielding broader and more profound repercussions in the future.

Marine heatwaves and cold spells in the Brazil Overshoot show distinct sea surface temperature patterns depending on the forcing

The Brazil Current Overshoot regions feature the strongest sea surface temperature variations over the global ocean but forecast skill for these extreme variations is limited. Here we investigate the drivers of marine heatwaves and cold spells in this region and find that ocean flows and sea surface heat fluxes are the primary drivers. We also find that sea surface temperature extremes driven by air-sea heat fluxes produce consistent changes in sea surface temperature and related atmospheric variables over a wide horizontal area, whereas ocean flow-driven sea surface temperature extremes exhibit low consistency in air variables and limited consistency in the spatial extent of sea variables across most sea surface temperature extreme events. These differing air-sea characteristics associated with extremes driven by different drivers offer potential avenues for improving prediction skills and advancing the understanding of three-dimensional air-sea impacts associated with extreme events.

Enhanced impacts of the North Pacific Victoria mode on the Indian summer monsoon onset in recent decades

AbstractVictoria mode (VM), the second dominant mode of North Pacific sea surface temperature variability, has been identified as one of the important factors influencing the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset. The positive phase of the May VM delays the ISM onset by both tropical and extratropical pathways. Here, we found a significant interdecadal enhancement of their relationship since the early 1990s, which is mainly attributed to the structure changes and increased variance of the VM. In recent decades, the VM has shown more significant warm SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific, which drive the large-scale divergent circulation more effectively. This enhanced divergent circulation leads to low-level divergence and reduced rainfall in the tropical Asian summer monsoon region. The reduced rainfall excites equatorial Rossby wave response and anomalous easterly winds in the northern Indian Ocean, delaying the ISM onset. Besides, the increased variance of the VM after 1992/1993 stimulates a stronger extratropical Rossby wave train. This stationary Rossby wave train induces a stronger cooling to the northwest of India, which weakens the land-sea thermal contrast and leads to the delayed ISM onset. This finding should be taken into account to improve short-term predictions of the monsoon onset.

Daily impact of the simultaneous passage of binary typhoons on sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration dynamics in the Northwestern Pacific

Typhoons are recognized as one of the most destructive meteorological phenomena, exerting significant influences on marine ecosystems. Sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL)an essential indicator of phytoplankton biomass, can be utilized to characterize the disturbances of typhoons on the marine ecosystem. However, it is challenging to investigate this impact at a daily scale due to the missing CHL remote sensing data caused by cloud cover. Given that concurrent passing typhoons may interact with CHL, this study analyzes the effect of the simultaneous passage of binary typhoons Tembin and Bolaven on CHL by using daily CHL reconstruction data, and investigates the role of ocean environmental factors in driving the dynamics of CHL, including sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth (MLD), and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA). The results show that typhoons Tembin and Bolaven increase CHL with the maximum increment of ∼3.2 mg∙m−3 during 4–6 days after typhoons passage. The maximum change areas of CHL are distributed near the intersection of typhoon track of (32°N, 125.2°E), corresponding to the regions of greater variation in SST and MLD. During 15 days before and after typhoons (i.e., from 15 August to 15 September 2012), SST is negatively correlated with CHL (the correlation coefficient of −0.85) and MLD is positively correlated with CHL (the correlation coefficient of −0.80). SST immediately declines after typhoons with a maximum cooling of 7.8 deg. C, showing the decreased SST from ∼28 deg. C to ∼23 deg. C can promote phytoplankton growth. MLD deepens from 10 m to >25 m caused by typhoon-induced strong winds, allowing more nutrients to be transported from the subsurface layer to the euphotic layer for phytoplankton blooms. Furthermore, oceanic eddies captured by SSHA change from cyclonic to anticyclonic eddies accompanied by the beginning of CHL increases, and the largest CHL increases correspond to the distribution of pre-existing cyclonic eddies. It suggests that Tembin and Boravin promote phytoplankton growth to increase CHL by enhancing vertical mixing and upwelling to transport nutrients to the sea surface. These findings inspire us to rethink the daily effects of typhoons on CHL, with critical importance for predicting and managing the ecological consequences of typhoons in the ocean.

Multidecadal Variations in the Tropical Western Pacific Driven by Externally‐Forced AMV‐Like Changes

AbstractMultidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) have been attributed to nonlinear external forcing and remote influences from the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, the AMV resulted from both internal variability (IV) and external forcing. Thus, the origins of the TWP SST variations are not well understood. By analyzing observations and model simulations, we show that more than half of the decadal to multidecadal SST variations in TWP during 1920–2020 resulted from external forcing with the forced component correlated with AMV, while the internal component is unrelated to AMV. Furthermore, about 43%–49% of the forced AMV‐like SST variations in TWP result from remote influences of the forced AMV in the Atlantic via atmospheric teleconnection over the North Pacific, with the rest from other remote or local processes.

Intrinsic Mode-Based Network Approach to Examining Multiscale Characteristics of Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Variability of sea surface temperature (SST), characterized by various spatiotemporal scales, is a proxy of climate change. A network analysis combined with empirical mode decomposition is newly presented for examining scale-dependent spatial patterns of SST variability. Our approach is applied to SST anomaly variability in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), consisting of satellite-derived daily datasets of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution from 1981 to 2023. Through the spatial distribution of instantaneous energy in intrinsic modes and features of intrinsic-mode networks, scale-dependent spatiotemporal features are found. The season-specific spatial pattern of energy density is observed only for weekly to semiannual modes, while a persistent high-energy distribution in the tongue-shaped region from East Korea Bay (EKB) to the Sub-Polar Front (SPF) is observed only for annual-to-decadal modes. The seasonality is apparent in the time evolution of energy only for weekly-to-annual modes, with a peak in summer and an increasing trend since the 2010s. Hubs of intrinsic-mode networks are observed in the whole southern area (some northern part) of EJS during the summer (winter), only for monthly to semiannual modes. Regional communities are observed only for weekly to seasonal modes, while there is an inter-basin community with annual-to-biennial modes, incorporating two pathways of East Sea Intermediate Water (ESIW).

Trends and drivers of CO2 parameters, from 2006 to 2021, at a time-series station in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic (6°S, 10°W)

The seawater fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) has been monitored hourly at an instrumented mooring at 6°S, 10°W since 2006. The mooring is located in the South Equatorial Current and is affected by the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue. This site is characterized by large seasonal sea surface temperature variations (>4°C). The fCO2 is measured by a spectrophotometric sensor deployed at about 1.5 meters deep. Measurements of seawater fCO2, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) are used to calculate total dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2) and pH. Total alkalinity (TA) is calculated using an empirical relationship with SSS determined for this region. Satellite chlorophyll-a concentrations at 6°S, 10°W are low (<0.2 mg m-3) but some peaks over 0.8 mg m-3 are sometimes detected in August. Nevertheless, the site is a permanent source of CO2 to the atmosphere, averaging 4.7 ± 2.4 mmol m-2d-1 over 2006-2021. Despite the weakening of the wind, the CO2 flux increases significantly by 0.20 ± 0.05 mmol m-2d-1 yr-1. This suggests that the source of CO2 is increasing in this region. This is explained by seawater fCO2 increasing faster than the atmospheric increase during 2006-2021. Most of the seawater fCO2 increase is driven by the increase of TCO2, followed by SST. The fCO2 increase leads to a pH decrease of -0.0030 ± 0.0004 yr-1. The SST anomalies (SSTA) at 6°S, 10°W are correlated to the Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA) index and to the Atlantic 3 region (ATL3) index with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.75. The strong positive phase of both ATL3 and TSA, observed towards the end of the time-series, is likely contributing to the strong increase of seawater fCO2.

The Investigation of the Response Mechanism of SST and Chlorophyll to Super Typhoon “Rey” in the South China Sea

As one of the most significant disturbance sources in the upper marine environment of the South China Sea, tropical cyclones (typhoons) serve as a typical research subject for investigating the energy transfer process between the ocean and atmosphere. Utilizing satellite remote sensing data and focusing on Typhoon Rey No. 22’s transit event in 2021, this study quantitatively analyzes typhoon-induced energy input through heat pumping and cold suction at both surface and subsurface levels of the ocean. Additionally, it explores the response characteristics and feedback mechanisms of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) in the South China Sea to typhoon events. The research results show that the SST variation along the typhoon track displayed an asymmetric pattern, with a more pronounced warming on the right side and a cold anomaly lasting for 3–5 days on the left side. The subsurface warm anomaly dominated on the right side, showing a maximum temperature difference of 1.54 °C, whereas Ekman suction-induced upwelling led to cooling effects both at the subsurface and surface level on the left side, resulting in a maximum temperature difference of −3.28 °C. During the typhoon event, there was a significant decrease in sea surface heat flux, reaching 323.36 W/m2, accompanied by corresponding changes in SST due to processes such as upwelling, seawater mixing, and air–sea heat transfer dynamics where anomalies arising from oceanic dynamic processes and exchange through sea surface heat flux contributed equally. Furthermore, strong suction-induced upwelling during the typhoon influenced chlorophyll concentration within the central and western regions of the South China Sea (13.5° N–16.5° N, 111° E–112.5° E), resulting in significant enhancement and reaching its peak value at approximately 0.65 mg/L. The average chlorophyll concentration increased by approximately 0.31 mg/L.

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Global Marine Heatwaves Change During 1982–2021

AbstractAs discrete prolonged extreme warm water events, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have become more frequent, stronger and longer‐lasting during the past several decades. The relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to these changes and their underlying drivers remain unclear. Here, analyses of 90 simulations in CESM2 reveal that external forcing dominates the increasing frequency by causing the mean warming of sea surface temperature (SST), accounting for 82% of the observed trends. Both the mean warming and increased variance of SST contribute to the longer‐lasting MHWs during 1982–2021, with external forcing contributing 38% of the increase in the SST variance for global average. Internal variability, especially the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), is closely associated with regional MHW changes. The observed negative IPO trend during 1982–2021 is related to increasing, strengthening and longer‐lasting MHW over Kuroshio Extension, but decreasing and shorter‐lasting MHW over the Northeast Pacific Coast.

What Controls the December Precipitation Deficit over the Southern Tibetan Plateau and the Northern Indian Continent?

Abstract Winter precipitation is critical for glacier growth, snow accumulation, and terrestrial storage on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, less attention has been paid to the changes in winter precipitation on the TP. In this study, based on the newly developed high-accuracy precipitation dataset, our diagnosis illustrated a distinct precipitation deficit over the southern TP and northern Indian continent (STNI) in December. Together with the ERA5 reanalysis, CESM1.1 large ensemble experiments, and pacemaker experiments, the dynamic diagnosis revealed that the precipitation deficit was attributed to the decrease in dynamic effects. In particular, the enhanced descending motion, accompanied by the strengthened anticyclone and regional meridional circulation over the STNI, resulted in the precipitation deficit. The changes in circulation system related to the precipitation deficit could be attributed to the Pacific and Indian sea surface temperature (SST) variability. With the negative interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), there were circumglobal alternative geopotential height anomalies and an anomalous anticyclone over the southern TP, and descending motion around the STNI associated with the enhanced Walker circulation over the Indo-Pacific, which exhibited a similar pattern to the precipitation deficit over the STNI in the observations. In addition, the synergistic effect of Pacific and Indian SST variability can improve the simulated precipitation deficit over the STNI relative to the Pacific SST variability alone. These results imply a contribution of the tropical SST variability to the precipitation trends over the STNI in early winter and provide an insight into the understanding of climate warming on the winter climate over the TP.

Effects of protection and temperature variation on temporal stability in a marine reserve network.

Understanding the drivers of ecosystem stability has been a key focus of modern ecology as the impacts of the Anthropocene become more prevalent and extreme. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are tools used globally to promote biodiversity and mediate anthropogenic impacts. However, assessing the stability of natural ecosystems and responses to management actions is inherently challenging due to the complex dynamics of communities with many interdependent taxa. Using a 12-year time series of subtidal community structure in an MPA network in the Channel Islands (United States), we estimated species interaction strength (competition and predation), prey species synchrony, and temporal stability in trophic networks, as well as temporal variation in sea surface temperature to explore the causal drivers of temporal stability at community and metacommunity scales. At the community scale, only trophic networks in MPAs at Santa Rosa Island showed greater temporal stability than reference sites, likely driven by reduced prey synchrony. Across islands, competition was sometimes greater and predation always greater in MPAs compared with reference sites. Increases in interaction strength resulted in lower temporal stability of trophic networks. Although MPAs reduced prey synchrony at the metacommunity scale, reductions were insufficient to stabilize trophic networks. In contrast, temporal variation in sea surface temperature had strong positive direct effects on stability at the regional scale and indirect effects at the local scale through reductions in species interaction strength. Although MPAs can be effective management strategies for protecting certain species or locations, our findings for this MPA network suggest that temperature variation has a stronger influence on metacommunity temporal stability by mediating species interactions and promoting a mosaic of spatiotemporal variation in community structure of trophic networks. By capturing the full spectrum of environmental variation in network planning, MPAs will have the greatest capacity to promote ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt

Since 2007, unprecedented marine heatwave events are occurring over the Arctic Ocean. Here we identify the fraction of the likelihood of Arctic marine heatwaves magnitude that is attributable to greenhouse gas forcing. Results reveal that Arctic marine heatwaves are primarily triggered by an abrupt sea-ice retreat, which coincides with the maximum downward radiative fluxes. Up to 82% of the sea surface temperature variability over the shallow Arctic marginal seas, where marine heatwaves are prone to occur, can be explained by net accumulation of seasonal surface heat flux in the ocean. Event attribution analysis demonstrates that the 103-day long 2020 event – the most intense (4 ∘C) recorded so far in the Arctic – would be exceptionally unlikely in the absence of greenhouse gas forcing in terms of both intensity and duration. Our further results imply that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, along with the expansion of first-year ice extent, moderate marine heatwaves in the Arctic will very likely persistently reoccur.

Investigation of the Synoptic and Dynamical Characteristics of Cyclone Shaheen (2021) and Its Influence on the Omani Coastal Region

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen (TCS), originating in the Arabian Sea on 30 September 2021, followed an east-to-west trajectory and made landfall as a category-1 cyclone in northern Oman on 3 October 2021, causing severe floods and damages before dissipating in the United Arab Emirates. This study aims to analyze the synoptic and dynamical conditions influencing Shaheen’s genesis and evolution. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data, SEVIRI-EUMETSAT imagery, and Sorbonne University Atmospheric Forecasting System (SUAFS) outputs, it was found that Shaheen manifested as a warm-core cyclone with moderate vertical wind shear within the eyewall. Distinctive features included a trajectory aligned with rising sea surface temperatures and increased specific humidity levels at 700 hPa in the Arabian Sea. As Shaheen approached the Gulf of Oman, a significant increase in rainfall rates occurred, correlated with variations in sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear. Comparative analysis between SUAFS and ERA5 data revealed a slight northward shift in the SUAFS track and landfall. Advance warnings highlighted heavy rainfall, rough seas, and strong winds. This study provides valuable insights into the meteorological factors contributing to Shaheen’s formation and impact.

Inconsistent Atlantic Links to Precipitation Extremes over the Humid Tropics

This study investigates extreme wet and dry conditions over the humid tropics and their connections to the variability of the tropical ocean basins using observations and a multi-model ensemble of 24 state-of-the-art coupled climate models, for the 1930–2014 period. The extreme wet (dry) conditions are consistently linked to Central Pacific La Niña (Eastern Pacific El Niño), the weakest being the Congo basin, and homogeneous patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. The Atlantic exhibits markedly varying configurations of SST anomalies, including the Atlantic Niño and pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation, with non-symmetrical patterns between the wet and dry conditions. The oceanic influences are associated with anomalous convection and diabatic heating partly related to variations in the strength of the Walker Circulation. The observed connection between the Amazon basin, as well as the Maritime continent, and the Indo-Pacific variability are better simulated than that of the Congo basin. The observed signs of the Pacific and Indian SST anomalies are reversed for the modelled Congo basin extreme conditions which are, instead, tied to the Atlantic Niño/Niña variability. This Atlantic–Congo basin connection is related to a too southerly location of the simulated inter-tropical convergence zone that is associated with warm SST biases over the Atlantic cold tongue. This study highlights important teleconnections and model improvements necessary for the skillful prediction of extreme precipitation over the humid tropics.

The Impact of Diurnal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature on Air–Sea Heat Flux Estimation over the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Accurate and consistent observations of diurnal variability of sea surface temperature (SST DV) and its impact on air–sea heat fluxes over large areas for extended periods are challenging due to their short time scale and wide coverage. The hourly gap-free SSTs generated from Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency-Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology (JAXA-JAMSTEC) are input to the COARE3.5 bulk flux algorithm to investigate the impact of SST DV on air–sea heat fluxes over the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWPO). The main results are as follows. (1) The JAXA-JAMSTEC SSTs were found to be in good agreement with the buoy observations on SST DV with a very slight negative bias of −0.007 °C and a root mean square error of 0.018 °C. (2) The case study conducted on 26 June 2020 showed that the fluxes’ diurnal amplitudes were about 30–50 W m−2, and evolution was in agreement with SST DV. (3) The average impact of SST DV on heat fluxes was 2.93 W m−2 over the subtropical NWPO, decreasing from southeast to northwest and from low to high latitudes, and showing a clear seasonal cycle during 2019–2022. This research highlights the need to consider SST DV for accurate estimation of heat fluxes, which is crucial for climate and atmospheric studies.

Unraveling sub-seasonal precipitation variability in the Middle East via Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

This study examines sub-seasonal precipitation anomalies, challenging to predict yet vital for society and the environment. Focusing on October, we investigate correlations between the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), West Tropical Indian Ocean Index (WTIO), and Middle Eastern precipitation. We find robust correlations (~ 0.7), up to a two-month lag, demonstrating strong links between these climate indices and rainfall patterns, potentially suggesting sub-seasonal precipitation predictability. Over the past four decades, DMI and WTIO have shown a significant upward trend of ~ 0.4 °C, intensifying their impact on precipitation dynamics. This trend signifies evolving Indian Ocean climate patterns with potential regional consequences and is projected to continue in the twenty-first century. Significant correlations also emerge between DMI, WTIO, and maximum daily precipitation, highlighting their role in extreme rainfall events. Finally, our study attributes most of October’s precipitation variability to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variations. These temperature anomalies influence the Indian Ocean’s Walker circulation, affecting water vapor flux to the Middle East and shaping regional precipitation. Our findings underscore the importance of these indices in understanding and predicting Middle East climate variability, revealing intricate ocean–atmosphere interactions.

The Critical Role of Thermal Stratification Associated With the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in Modulating Winter Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractThe Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM), a seasonal bottom‐layer water mass in the Yellow Sea (YS) most prominent in summer, has always been overlooked in previous studies investigating variations in the winter Sea Surface Temperature. Here, using observations and high‐resolution numerical modeling, we reveal for the first time the significant contribution of thermal stratification associated with the YSCWM to the sea surface cooling and the formation of the westward‐shifted Yellow Sea Warm Water Tongue (YSWT) in early winter. Heat budget analyses indicated that the impact of the YSCWM to surface cooling manifests in two aspects. First, the upward mixing of bottom cold water from the remnant YSCWM triggers cooling in the mixed layer. Second, the shallower local mixed layer above the YSCWM facilitates more pronounced cooling processes compared to the YSWT region under similar heat flux. The formation of the westward‐shifted YSWT is the result of intensified surface cooling in both the coastal shallow waters and the YSCWM region in the central YS. During the formation process of the YSWT, its main axis aligns with the western boundary of the YSCWM. As the YSCWM dissipates, the YSWT shows an eastward apparent displacement and eventually stabilizes near approximately 123°E. This study enriches our understanding of the transition from stratification to vertical homogeneity in the water temperature structure of the YS during early winter.