Inconsistent Atlantic Links to Precipitation Extremes over the Humid Tropics

Abstract

This study investigates extreme wet and dry conditions over the humid tropics and their connections to the variability of the tropical ocean basins using observations and a multi-model ensemble of 24 state-of-the-art coupled climate models, for the 1930–2014 period. The extreme wet (dry) conditions are consistently linked to Central Pacific La Niña (Eastern Pacific El Niño), the weakest being the Congo basin, and homogeneous patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. The Atlantic exhibits markedly varying configurations of SST anomalies, including the Atlantic Niño and pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation, with non-symmetrical patterns between the wet and dry conditions. The oceanic influences are associated with anomalous convection and diabatic heating partly related to variations in the strength of the Walker Circulation. The observed connection between the Amazon basin, as well as the Maritime continent, and the Indo-Pacific variability are better simulated than that of the Congo basin. The observed signs of the Pacific and Indian SST anomalies are reversed for the modelled Congo basin extreme conditions which are, instead, tied to the Atlantic Niño/Niña variability. This Atlantic–Congo basin connection is related to a too southerly location of the simulated inter-tropical convergence zone that is associated with warm SST biases over the Atlantic cold tongue. This study highlights important teleconnections and model improvements necessary for the skillful prediction of extreme precipitation over the humid tropics.