Predicted Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Timing, pace and controls on ice sheet retreat: an introduction to the BRITICE‐CHRONO transect reconstructions of the British–Irish Ice Sheet

ABSTRACTMotivated to help improve the robustness of predictions of sea level rise, the BRITICE‐CHRONO project advanced knowledge of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet, from 31 to 15 ka, so that it can be used as a data‐rich environment to improve ice sheet modelling. The project comprised over 40 palaeoglaciologists, covering expertise in terrestrial and marine geology and geomorphology, geochronometric dating and the modelling of ice sheets and oceans. A systematic and directed campaign, organised across eight transects from the continental shelf edge to a short distance (10s of kilometres) onshore, was used to collect 914 samples which yielded 639 new ages, tripling the number of dated sites constraining the timing and rates of change of the collapsing ice sheet. This special issue synthesises these findings of ice advancing to the maximum extent and its subsequent retreat for each of the eight transects to produce definitive palaeogeographic reconstructions of ice margin positions across the marine to terrestrial transition. These results are used to understand the controls that drove or modulated ice sheet retreat. A further paper reports on how ice sheet modelling experiments and empirical data can be used in combination, and another probes the glaciological meaning of ice‐rafted debris.

The Change in Elevation, Land Subsidence and Local Sea Level Rise Using Coastal Response Model in Jakarta

The rapid urban development activities on the coast of Jakarta has a major impact on the risk of land subsidence. This land subsidence causes significant changes in land elevation. Especially, the coastal areas of Jakarta receive the risk of inundation. The primary purpose of this research was to examine the responses of Jakarta coastal areas based on land subsidence rates of a 24-day baseline data of SAR Sentinel 1A, and local sea-level rise prediction from MOTIWALI data. The methods used in this research were an interferometric SAR (InSAR) and Coastal Response Models. The results of this study indicate that the coastal model response using adjusted elevation based on interferogram elevation and land subsidence rates of SAR Sentinel A1 in a relatively short time (monthly) escalates the evaluation of areas with potential undergoing inundation impacts. Jakarta coastal area receives a greater response with changes in the elevation adjustment based on the local sea-level rise of 0.54 m and land subsidence rates of 0.02. The model demonstrates that the coastal landscape of Jakarta was not possessing the capacity to respond to sea-level rise. Coastal dikes are quite effective as an initial defense in the event of extreme sea waves. The coastal response model using SAR Sentinel 1A data can respond to resource management decisions in coastal areas, and improve assessments quickly that consider the impacts of future land subsidence and local sea-level rise.

Alternative approaches to medium-long term sea level rise mapping in Southern Miami Beach (Florida, USA)

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate three temporal mapping approaches to predict Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the Southern Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. These three temporal approaches provide an alternative to SLR prediction by the common binary method based on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). The first temporal approach gathers seven theoretical and semi-empirical scenarios of SLR by the end the century in a single map. The second temporal approach is based on the calculation of the time horizon to inundate each cell of the DEM during ordinary high tides. Finally, the third temporal approach maps the minimum average rate of SLR by which a cell will be inundated by the year 2100. These approaches indicate that, in the second half of the 21st century, a large area on the coast of Miami will be inundated due to SLR. A survey conducted with a group of 73 experts concluded that these approaches were more suitable than other classical approaches for mapping SLR in urban areas.

Long-term water quality analysis reveals correlation between bacterial pollution and sea level rise in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico

Long-term assessments are needed to identify water quality trends and their socio-environmental drivers for coastal management and watershed restoration. This study provides the first long-term assessment of fecal bacterial pollution in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico using enterococci data spanning the Texas coast from 2009 to 2020. The data were representative of 66 beaches, 169 stations, and over 75,000 samples. Findings demonstrate that 22 beaches are ‘hotspots’ of pollution and experienced enterococci levels that frequently exceeded the USEPA beach action value. Further, enterococci were correlated with time, population size, and sea level. Weak correlations detected in some counties highlight the multifactorial nature of water quality; additional factors are likely influencing enterococci levels. The correlation with sea level is concerning, as counties vulnerable to sea level rise frequently reported enterococci concentrations exceeding the beach action value. In consideration of sea level rise predictions, targeted studies are needed to pinpoint drivers of fecal pollution.

Beryllium isotopes in sediments from Lake Maruwan Oike and Lake Skallen, East Antarctica, reveal substantial glacial discharge during the late Holocene

Constraining East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) evolution during the Holocene is important for exploring the forcing mechanisms behind ice sheet retreat and to constrain numerical ice sheet models that aid predictions of future sea-level rise. Beryllium (Be) isotope analysis of bedrock and marine sediments have offered unparalleled insight into Antarctic ice sheet history since the Pliocene, but much of EAIS remains poorly studied. Here, we report the reactive (authigenic) 10Be abundance, 9Be abundance and 10Be/9Be ratios of Antarctic lake sediments, for the first time, from Lake Maruwan Oike and Lake Skallen along Soya Coast of Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. Beryllium isotope records reveal melting of local glaciers associated with higher subglacial erosion between ∼4.1 and ∼3.6 ka BP. Comparison to marine records from the Antarctic continental shelf suggests this was part of a circum-Antarctic phenomena that led to widespread glacial discharge from other sectors of the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheet. We suggest the incursion of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into Lützow-Holm Bay during the Late Holocene led to frontal and basal melting of ice sheets along the Soya Coast, supporting the notion of Antarctic ice sheet instabilities as a contributor to global sea-level rise since the Mid Holocene.

Alkali-activated concrete mixes with ground granulated blast furnace slag and paper sludge ash in seawater environments

Predicted sea level rise due to global warming will necessitate the construction of coastal defenses to protect the populations in the vicinity of the coasts. Large quantities of concrete will be required with consecutive increases in greenhouse emissions, hence an increasing need for alternative to Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) cements. Feasible potential alternatives could be found in alkali-activated cements, which also include industrial by-products or waste materials. This paper presents a laboratory study of concrete mixes based on the alkali-activation of an industrial by-product, ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS) and includes an industrial waste, paper slugde ash (PSA) in the alkali-activator mixes. The use of seawater as mixing and curing water was also examined. The compressive strength and a number of durability-related properties of alkali-activated mixes in marine environment were investigated and compared to OPC systems. The incorporation of paper sludge ash led to high early strengths, a decrease in the effective porosity of alkali-activated slag concretes and generally a reduced water absorption, and enhanced the performance against chloride ion attack in mixes with freshwater, as well as the resistance of the cements in sulphate attack especially when mixed with seawater. The addition of seawater in the mixes increased the resistance to sulphate attack and the compressive strength in alkali-activated systems, as opposed to OPC concretes in which mixing and curing in seawater had deleterious effects. The study gives promise for the suitability of the tested alkali-activated concrete mixes in seawater environments.

Largest marsh in New England near a precipice

The Great Marsh in northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire is the largest salt marsh in New England and includes the marsh surrounding Plum Island Sound, one of the most studied coastal wetlands in the United States. A primary goal in marsh research today is predicting their resilience in a regime of sea-level rise, which has become increasingly based on modeling studies with sparse or site-specific field data input. Here, we present the results of a vertical accretion study using 210Pb and 137Cs geochronology developed from 50-cm long auger cores taken at 15 locations throughout the PIS marsh. Two significant outliers were omitted from the final analyses due to their unusual depositional settings. The 137Cs spike produced the shortest-term record and lowest average accretion rate (2.5 mm/yr). Of the various 210Pb accretion models (Constant Flux-Constant Sedimentation: CF-CS, Constant Rate of Supply: CRS, Constant Initial Concentration: CIC), we chose the CF-CS model accretion rate for comparison to other environmental parameters and future marsh projections due to the robust R2 linear regression values and its wide use. The 13 stations exhibited an average accretion rate of 3.13 mm/yr, which is 0.6 mm/yr greater than the average rate reported elsewhere in New England. Individual accretion rates show no correlation with geography, elevation, bulk density, loss on ignition, distance to tidal channels, or peat thickness, indicating the complexity of the interacting factors that control marsh growth. Using moderate sea-level rise predictions, we show that large portions of the high marsh are likely to be converted to low marsh by 2050, and that the entire marsh high platform will become low marsh prior to 2070. This is the first time that wide spread field data are used to project a major transformation of the Plum Island Sound platform marsh that undoubtedly will lead to dramatic changes to marsh drainage, backbarrier hypsometry, tidal current dominance, and redistribution of sediment reservoirs, that will include the fronting barrier islands.

Sea level rise and marsh surface elevation change in the Meadowlands of New Jersey

The marshlands of the Meadowlands of New Jersey are valuable wetland ecosystems in a highly developed urban area and provide a natural habitat to more than 285 species of birds, a great variety of fishes, and many other living organisms. It is not clear if these ecosystems and their associated ecological services will persist under conditions of accelerated sea level rise (SLR), in geography where space for a landward retreat of marshlands is limited. In this study, we used the deep rod surface elevation table method and feldspar marker horizons to measure surface elevation change and vertical accretion rate in five marshland sites over 11 years. The controlling parameters of the accretion rate were explored. The results showed that sediments were not limited for vertical accretion. About 16% of the total suspended solids reaching the marsh via the tide was trapped by the marsh surface. Hydraulic duty alone cannot explain differences in deposition rates between low and high marsh. Precipitation, snow accumulation, and sea surge from storms were the main drivers influencing subsidence. The overall subsidence rate was 1.5 ± 1.3 mm/year. All sites combined showed increases in surface elevation of 4.0 ± 0.7 mm/year. This rate of increase is not enough to keep up with the 8 mm/year SLR prediction. There is a 50% chance that in 80 years, 7% of current marshlands will be underwater or will convert to unvegetated mudflats, and most high marsh habitats will disappear.

The Impacts of ENSO and IOD on the MSL of The Arabian Gulf and The Arabian Sea by Using Satellite Altimetry Data

The main objective for the current research is to determine the linear trends of the mean sea level (MSL) resulting from the influence of the Southern Oscillation of El Niño (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), which have increased in recent times due to increased global warming using satellite altimetry of MSL data. Statistical time series technique has been used. The standard ordinary univariate and bivariate linear regression method as well as Pearson correlation were used. Linear trends for the positive phase of IOD were detected on mean sea level while no linear trends of ENSO were detected in the Arabian Gulf. On the other side, linear trends of the negative phases of IOD and ENSO were detected on mean sea level in the Arabian Sea over the period 1993-2013. It is most important for climate research to provide accurate predictions of sea level rise in the coming years and plan the activities to lessen the disasters before they happen.

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Maritime Baselines: Responding to the Plight of Low-Lying Atoll States

Predicted sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change threatens to drastically alter coastlines around the world. In the case of low-lying atoll states, it threatens to expunge them from the map. This potential scenario has engendered considerable discussion concerning the fate of climate refugees. Relatively little attention, however, has been given to the impact of sea level rise on existing maritime zones and how these zones, and the resources they represent, might continue to benefit displaced communities. This article builds on the small body of legal scholarship that has taken this matter seriously, to provide a normative analysis, based on principles of global justice, of the best ways of responding to the plight of atoll states. The article thus both extends legal scholarship by applying the principles of global justice to the problem of maritime boundaries, and contributes to the literature on global justice by investigating a salient but hitherto neglected case.

How do life-history traits influence the fate of intertidal and subtidal Mytilus galloprovincialis in a changing climate?

Coastal organisms (i.e. intertidal or upper subtidal species) live in between the terrestrial and aquatic realms, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change. In this context, intertidal organisms may suffer from the predicted sea level rise (increasing their submerged time) while subtidal organisms may suffer from anthropically-induced hypoxia and its consequences. Although there is some knowledge on how coastal organisms adapt to environmental changes, the biochemical and physiological consequences of prolonged submergence periods have not yet been well characterized. Thus, the present study aimed to assess the biochemical alterations experienced by intertidal organisms maintained always under tidal exposure (IT); intertidal organisms maintained submersed (IS); subtidal organisms maintained always submersed (SS); subtidal organisms under tidal exposure (ST). For this, Mytilus galloprovincialis specimens from contiguous intertidal and subtidal populations were exposed to the above mentioned conditions for twenty-eight days. Results indicated that both intertidal and subtidal mussels are adapted to the oxidative stress pressure caused by tidal and submerged conditions tested. Intertidal mussels did not seem to be negatively affected by submergence while ST specimens were energetically challenged by tidal exposure. Both IT and ST mussels consumed glycogen to fuel up mechanisms aiming to maintain redox homeostasis. Overall, both intertidal and subtidal populations were capable of coping with tidal exposure, although the strategies employed differed between them. These findings indicate that although IT mussels may not significantly suffer from the longer-term submergence, hypoxic events occurring in the context of global warming and other anthropogenic impacts may have consequences on both IT and ST populations. Altogether, it is important to highlight that tides may act as a confounding factor in experiments concerning coastal organisms, as it causes additional physiological and biochemical perturbations.

Multiscale consensus habitat modeling for landscape level conservation prioritization

Globally, wide-ranging carnivore populations are imperiled due to human-caused habitat fragmentation. Where populations are fragmented, habitat quantification is often the first step in conservation. Presence-only species distribution models can provide robust results when proper scales and data are considered. We aimed to identify habitat for a fragmented carnivore population at two scales and aid conservation prioritization by identifying potential future habitat fragmentation. We used location data and environmental variables to develop a consensus model using Maxent and Mahalanobis distance to identify black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus) habitat across Florida, USA. We compared areas of habitat to areas of predicted sea level rise, development, and protected areas. Local-scale models performed better than state-scale models. We identified 23,798 km2 of habitat at the local-scale and 45,703 km2 at the state-scale. Approximately 10% of state- and 14% of local-scale habitat may be inundated by 2100, 16% of state- and 7% of local-scale habitat may be developed, and 54% of state- and 15% of local-scale habitat is unprotected. Results suggest habitat is at risk of fragmentation. Lack of focused conservation and connectivity among bear subpopulations could further fragmentation, and ultimately threaten population stability as seen in other fragmented carnivore populations globally.

Effect of saltwater intrusion on activated sludge flocculation.

Saltwater addition negatively impacted the settling properties of the activated sludge in a sequencing batch reactor, which in turn caused the effluent quality and the dewatering properties to deteriorate. Experiments showed that increasing sodium ion concentrations above 1meq/L interfered with bio-flocculation by ion exchange of calcium ions displaced by sodium in mixed liquor flocs, causing increases in the sludge volume index, total suspended solids, and chemical oxygen demand concentrations of the final effluent and in the times of the time to filter test of the mixed liquor. Experiments were also conducted to reverse mixed liquor de-flocculation by adding calcium ions in wastewater with different sodium chloride concentrations and a positive relationship was found between calcium ion added and improved effluent quality. Calcium ion concentrations above 1.6meq/L proved to be beneficial for adhesion of microbial aggregates leading to the formation of stable flocs and improved sludge dewatering by reversing the ion exchange phenomenon observed with sodium concentrations above 1meq/L. Monovalent-to-divalent ratios did not provide predictive information on de-flocculation. Hence, individual ion concentrations in addition to monovalent-to-divalent cation ratios are important in the onset of de-flocculation effects while a system-specific concentration threshold was measured under which no adverse effects were observed. PRACTITIONER POINTS: The adverse effects of varying concentrations of sodium chloride on the biological process affecting bioflocculation and effluent quality. Impact of sodium on the health of the mixed liquor as well as on dewatering processes. Prediction of sea level rise due to climate change will impact utilities situated along the coast with saltwater intrusion problems. Management of dewatered flows containing saltwater from onsite construction Identify management practices to reduce the impact of saltwater on the wastewater treatment plant.

Model Spasial Level Dasar Bangunan Kota Tepian Air (Studi Kasus: Kota Makassar)

Flooding is a threat to coastal cities such as Makassar City. To Avoid the threat of flooding, it is necessary to determine the ground level of the building. This study aims to develop a spatial model for determining the ground level of buildings for Makassar City based on climate change data and environmental geography. Prediction of sea level rise using MAGICC/SCENGEN application, GIS-based satellite image analysis, rainfall analysis using Thiessen polygon method, surface runoff coefficient value determined by Cook method, and design flood discharge analysis with HSU Nakayasu method. The spatial model of the ground level of Makassar City building for 2030 is a function of sea tides, sea level rise due to climate change, alluvial floods and inflow floods that can occur simultaneously. The model produces a spatial map with attributes of geographic coordinates (x,y,z).

Genesis of the Antarctic Slope Current in West Antarctica

AbstractThe stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) depends on ocean heat transport toward its base and remains a source of uncertainty in sea level rise prediction. The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC), a major boundary current of the ocean's global circulation, serves as a dynamic gateway for heat transport toward Antarctica. Here, we use observations collected from the Bellingshausen Sea to propose a mechanistic explanation for the initiation of the westward‐flowing ASC. Waters modified throughout the Bellingshausen Sea by ocean‐sea‐ice and ocean‐ice‐shelf interactions are exported to the continental slope in a narrow, topographically steered western boundary current. This focused outflow produces a localized front at the shelf break that supports the emerging ASC. This mechanism emphasizes the importance of buoyancy forcing, integrated over the continental shelf, as opposed to local wind forcing, in the generation mechanism and suggests the potential for remote control of melt rates of WAIS' largest ice shelves.

Studies on the variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and climate

We review major scientific results from Subtheme (1) "Variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and climate" under Research Theme 2 "Variations in the ice sheet, glaciers, and the environment in the Greenland region" of the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project. We participated in the international East Greenland Ice Core Project (EGRIP) led by Denmark, conducted snow pit observations near the coring site and reconstructed the surface mass balance over the past 10 years. Analyses of an ice core from Northwest Greenland revealed temporal variability in black carbon concentration over the past 350 years and in mineral dust over the past 100 years. To understand the mechanisms of ice-sheet flow, which is necessary for accurate predictions of sea level rise, we conducted laboratory experiments using artificial ice and derived an improved flow law for ice containing impurities. Ice sheet modeling was improved by including effects of impurities and ice stream dynamics. As part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (ISMIP6), we simulated ice sheet mass loss and contribution to sea level rise over the 21st century and beyond. Furthermore, we developed a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model to better constrain ice sheet models.

Predicting the impacts of sea level rise in sea turtle nesting habitat on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.

Sea level is expected to rise 44 to 74 cm by the year 2100, which may have critical, previously un-investigated implications for sea turtle nesting habitat on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. This study investigates how nesting habitat will likely be lost and altered with various increases in sea level, using global sea level rise (SLR) predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Beach profiling datasets from Bioko’s five southern nesting beaches were used in GIS to create models to estimate habitat loss with predicted increases in sea level by years 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. The models indicate that an average of 62% of Bioko’s current nesting habitat could be lost by 2046–2065 and 87% by the years 2081–2100. Our results show that different study beaches showed different levels of vulnerability to increases in SLR. In addition, on two beaches erosion and tall vegetation berms have been documented, causing green turtles to nest uncharacteristically in front of the vegetation line. We also report that development plans are currently underway on the beach least susceptible to future increases in sea level, highlighting how anthropogenic encroachment combined with SLR can be particularly detrimental to nesting turtle populations. Identified habitat sensitivities to SLR will be used to inform the government of Equatorial Guinea to consider the vulnerability of their resident turtle populations and projected climate change implications when planning for future development. To our knowledge this is the first study to predict the impacts of SLR on a sea turtle nesting habitat in Africa.

A Comprehensive Programme for the Resettlement of Climate Refugees

The placement of environmentally displaced persons is imminent. Involving as many countries as possible in the resettlement of environmentally displaced persons, while protecting their culture and human rights, are the primary goal of the resettlement program. However, countries may refuse to participate in resettlement programs if their interests are not fully considered. The rights of the environmentally displaced persons cannot be protected. The model involves the interests of all parties to ensure the wide participation of all countries in the world. Then, we use quantitative assessment to assess the risk of cultural loss and protect culture and human rights of environmentally displaced persons by controlling this risk. Firstly, in order to calculate the number of people who are likely to be environmentally displaced persons in the future, we build a prediction model based on Markov Chain. By analyzing the average altitude of each country and the predicted sea level rise, we calculate the number of countries likely to be submerged over time. Combining the projected future population of each country, we calculate the total number of people at risk of becoming environmentally displaced persons. Secondly, we link the number of environmentally displaced persons that countries should place with the two goals of human rights protection. Establish Double-Score model to allocate the number of people that each country should place reasonably. The model takes into account countries’ carbon emissions and their suitability for migration. The two integral indexes in the model are as follows: Score of carbon dioxide emission. The higher a country’s score, the more responsibility it has to accommodate environmentally displaced persons. The index is converted from the country’s per capita carbon emissions and total carbon emissions, using the Paris Climate Agreement’s calculation of carbon emissions. Score of suitability for immigration. The lower the Score of a country, the higher the Score of carbon emission can be deducted. Meanwhile, the better a country’s cultural and human rights protection of environmentally displaced persons, the higher the score. We encourage countries to actively protect the human rights and culture of refugees. As a part of its commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement, the countries of the world must keep their total score below the set threshold.

Illustrative Analysis of Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Hazard

AbstractSea level rise results from several contributing physical processes, including ocean thermal expansion and glacier and ice sheet mass loss. Future projections of sea level remain highly uncertain due to several sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Quantifying different sources of sea level rise involves considering possible pathways of future radiative forcing and integrating models of different sea level rise processes. The probabilistic hazard analysis strategy has been proposed for combining sea level rise prediction models and climate forcing scenarios to examine sea level rise prediction uncertainty and the sources of this uncertainty. In this study we carry out an illustrative probabilistic sea level rise hazard analysis using ensembles of sea level rise predictions and emissions scenarios from the literature. This illustrative analysis allows us to estimate the probability that sea level rise will exceed a specified threshold at a given location and time and highlights how sea level rise uncertainty is sensitive to scenario inputs and sea level rise projection modeling choices. Probabilistic hazard is depicted for Earth using sea level rise hazard maps. We also demonstrate how hazard deaggregation can help us quantify the relative contributions of sea level rise sources, prediction models, and climate forcing scenarios to sea level rise hazard. The ice sheet contribution to sea level rise has a large impact on probabilistic projection of sea level rise due to the disagreements between current ice sheet models related to differences in modeling ice sheet instability.

基于改进的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对某岛海平面上升高度的预测

基于改进的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对某岛海平面上升高度的预测