Predicted Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Beyond annual metrics: Linking seasonal population dynamics to vertical oyster reef growth.

Oysters are ecosystem engineering species building reef-like biogenic structures in temperate shallow water environments, serving as biodiversity hotspots. Recently, also their ecosystem services such as fish nursery, pollutants sink and self-sustaining coastal protection mechanisms came into a research focus. In light of accelerated sea level rise and increasing environmental dynamics, a determination of vertical growth rates of these biosedimentary structures is paramount in assessing their resilience. This study embarked on a comprehensive survey of seasonal vertical reef growth rates using terrestrial laser scanning and related population dynamics of two intertidal reefs built by the non-native oyster Magallana gigas in the Wadden Sea. We quantified median reef growth at 19.8 mm yr-1 for the Kaiserbalje reef and 17.5 mm yr-1 for the Nordland reef. Additionally, we tested the hypothesis that the seasonal variations in reef growth rates correspond to the local population dynamics, mainly the parameters of shell length and abundance which mirror delayed effects from previous spawning events. Shell growth rates were 0.03-0.06 mm d-1 in winter and 0.10-0.16 mm d-1 in summer, mean oyster abundance from autumn 2019 to spring 2022 was 627 ± 43 ind. m-2 and 338 ± 87 ind. m-2 at the Kaiserbalje and Nordland reefs respectively. Minor reef growth in the topmost reef area reflects an emerging equilibrium of the vertical reef position to actual sea level. Our findings are in accordance with growth of natural Crassostrea virginica reefs on the US East Coast, indicating potential resilience to actual and predicted sea level rise scenarios. Moreover, understanding local hydro-morphodynamic feedback linked to sea level rise will be vital in predicting the three-dimensional stability of these biosedimentary structures and habitats.

INUNDATION PREDICTION AS THE EFFECT OF RISING MEAN SEA LEVEL AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN NORTH JAKARTA BASED ON 2013-2021 TIDAL DATA

Future sea level rise in North Jakarta is one of the potential hazards that threaten the safety of coastal communities and infrastructure. Prediction of sea level rise is needed to reduce the vulnerability of the people living on the coast. This study was conducted to estimate the height of sea level rise in 2045 using linear regression analysis of hourly tidal data for 2013-2021 coupled with the highest astronomical tide value from the results of tidal harmonic analysis in 2021 using the t_tide application in matlab. The water elevation was then projected on the Digital Elevation Model to obtain the inundation area in 2045. The result of this study is an inundation area of 56 km2 in North Jakarta in 2045 due to an increase in total sea level of 117 cm at high tide.

Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. While anthropogenic radiative forcing causes an acceleration of global mean SLR, regional changes in the rate of SLR are strongly influenced by internal variability. Here we use observations and climate models to show that the rapid increase in the rate of SLR along the U.S. Southeast Coast after 2010 is due in part to multidecadal buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations, along with heat transport convergence from wind-driven ocean circulation changes. We show that an initialized decadal prediction system can provide skillful regional SLR predictions induced by AMOC variations 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable 2 years in advance. Our results suggest that the rate of coastal SLR and its associated flooding risk along the U.S. southeastern seaboard are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.

Modeling the impact of sea level rise on endangered deer habitat

Numerous unique flora and fauna inhabit the Lower Florida Keys, including the endangered Florida Key deer, found nowhere else. In this vulnerable habitat of flat islands with low elevation, accelerated sea level rise poses a threat. Predicting the impact of sea level rise on vegetation and wildlife is crucial. This study used 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea level rise scenarios to assess their effects on No Name Key, Florida. The goal was to estimate changes in the Florida Key deer population relative to sea level rise using a lidar-derived elevation data and a vegetation map. The method used 2 cases to model the sea level rise impact. In Case 1, total non-submerged area at current sea level was determined. Using 5 IPCC scenarios, a new total non-submerged land area was estimated, and deer numbers were predicted for each scenario. In Case 2, upward migration of coastal vegetation combined with the coastal squeeze process was modeled. A distinct elevation range for each vegetation type at the current sea level was determined. Vegetation ranges were redistributed based on respective elevation ranges in the sea level rise scenarios. Areas for each vegetation type were recalculated, and Key deer numbers were estimated for each sea level rise scenario. Results under the worst emission scenario showed the following: (1) for case 1, the land area was reduced to 30 % of the current land area, corresponding to having about 27 deer, and (2) for case 2, the land area was reduced to 70 % of the current land area, having about 54 deer on No Name Key. The results indicated reduced non-submerged land area and less upland vegetation, particularly hardwoods/hammocks, by the year 2100. As less land area is available, a decline in Key deer population is expected as sea levels rise. Since Key deer favor upland vegetation, habitat affected by sea level rise will likely support a smaller deer population. The findings emphasize the need for precise, timely predictions of sea level rise impacts and long-term conservation strategies. Specifically designed measures are required to protect and maintain endangered wildlife, such as the Florida Key deer, residing on these vulnerable islands.

Subglacial bedform and moat initiation beneath Rutford Ice Stream, West Antarctica

The accuracy of sea-level rise predictions is highly dependent on reliably understanding the subglacial environment beneath ice streams. Bedforms result from the interaction between ice and its substrate, and therefore have the potential to shed light on poorly understood basal conditions influencing ice dynamics. However, theoretical models of bedform formation are often based on observations from deglaciated areas or from sparsely-sampled geophysical surveys over glaciated regions. Here, we use high-resolution three- and two-dimensional radar and seismic data to reveal details of the initiation and evolution of a subglacial bedform beneath Rutford Ice Stream, West Antarctica. Radar surveys at 20 m and 50 m line spacing allow detailed imaging of bed topography, including a moat up to 55 m deep, surrounding the upstream end of a 50-m high and >18-km long bedform. Many models rely on either a topographical or a locally resistant seed point to initiate bedform formation. The bedform described here is mostly composed of soft sediment (porosity >0.3) and lacks a boulder or outcrop, suggesting the bedform initiated without a topographic seed point. Sediment at the upstream end of bedforms appears stiffer over a distance of 2.3 km. We suggest sediment inhomogeneities in the initially flat bed cause the deposition of sediment, which, assuming resistant enough, acts as a seed point for bedform extension and moat erosion. The moat's geometry and its truncation of other bedforms suggest that it was eroded after the deposition of surrounding bedforms. These observations from a modern ice stream deliver information of subglacial processes involved in the initiation as well as in situ high-resolution topography and properties of bedforms and moats. Using these observations numerical models can be tested and developed accordingly.

Relative Sea Level Rise in the Winyah Bay-Waccamaw River Tidal System Over the Last Thirteen Years

Prediction of sea level rise (SLR) in response to climate change has been the focus of worldwide research, most focusing on the impact by human development. The research has been limited to estuaries and tidal rivers near harbors dealing with the hydrodynamics of reversing tidal flows. This article focuses on the Waccamaw River National Wildlife Refuge in coastal South Carolina where freshwater unidirectional flow is common. We examined the record of water levels in the Waccamaw and Pee Dee Rivers over the period 2007–2019 and the length of record of the United States Geographical Survey (USGS) gauge at Pawleys Island on the Waccamaw River. The Atlantic Ocean, off the southeastern coast of the US, has experienced accelerated SLR since 2000. National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) tide gauges from Fort Pulaski on Cockspur Island in Georgia to Beaufort, North Carolina, show significant increase in long-term SLR since then with an average since 2007 of approximately 10 mm y-1. Since the study period was less than the 18.6-year cycle of lunar precession, tidal ranges were expanding for much of the study period resulting in the rate of rise of Mean Higher High Water (MHHW; the average of the highest tide levels during each day) being greater than the rate of increase of Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW; the average of the lowest tide levels during each day) in all ocean stations. We examined water levels at NOAA and USGS gauges from Oyster Creek, in North Inlet to Conway on the Waccamaw River and Near Bucksport on the Pee Dee River. We found mean water levels increased more rapidly with distance from the ocean with an apparent SLR > 40 mm y-1 at Conway on the Waccamaw and Bucksport on the Pee Dee. In contrast to the ocean NOAA gauges, the estuary/river gauges showed more rapid increase of daily minimum water level (an approximation of MLLW) than daily maximum water level (an approximation of MHHW) with an extreme of apparent rise of minimum water levels of 58 mm y-1 at Bucksport on the Pee Dee. Nearly 50% of the increase in apparent SLR was due to an increase in the annual average freshwater flow of the Pee Dee and Waccamaw Rivers. Over the past 13 years the Waccamaw National Wildlife Refuge has experienced an apparent SLR that was more than double that observed at the edge of the ocean. The rise has been greater in the height of daily low water than in the height of daily high water. The increase was driven by both tidal hydrodynamics and an increase in the rate of flow in the Pee Dee and Waccamaw Rivers. These findings have important implications for land managers, policymakers, and homeowners in the region as people in the middle to upper estuaries need to plan for rates of relative SLR rise much greater than the frequently discussed rates in the ocean.

Rob Flood as impact of sea level rise around Kenjeran Beach Tourism Surabaya

Kenjeran Beach is located in the coastal area of the East Coast of Surabaya (Pamurbaya) where most of the ecosystems are mangroves, so this area has the potential to be inundated with water (flood). This study aims to analyze tidal flooding as the impact of sea level rise and formulate appropriate adaptation & mitigation strategies so that tourism utilization can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The method used in this study was the tidal calculation which produces sea level rise predictions and the Geographic Information System method which produces a map of the vulnerability of the tidal flood area. The map results were analyzed to determine adaptation and mitigation strategies from the tidal flood. Based on the analysis of sea level rise, the area inundated due to tidal flooding was around 42 cm in the next 50 years. In an effort to adapt and mitigate sea level rise disasters, it was carried out with structural (physical or technical) mitigation and non-structural (non-technical) mitigation.

Protective structures as adaptive management strategy in Nature-based Solutions to mitigate sea level rise effects

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) that integrate salt marshes with traditional coastal protection structures are gaining interest in the face of ongoing climate change. However, major uncertainties remain about the combined impact of sea level rise and marsh-supporting management measures (e.g. nourishments and brushwood dams) on vegetation establishment. This study presents inundation percentages, bed level changes and vegetation characteristics of the dominant pioneer species of the constructed Marconi salt marsh for the growing season of 2021. This field data identified hydrodynamic and morphodynamic thresholds for vegetation establishment: <12% monthly inundation, and −0.8 cm < monthly bed level change < 1.4 cm. The existing morphodynamic DET-ESTMORF model was extended with these thresholds for vegetation establishment. A scenario analysis with this model revealed that the implementation of a brushwood dam accommodates the vegetation to establish further seaward. On the long term, until 2100, predicted sea level rise was found to cause the vegetation to retreat, but this retreat was substantially delayed by the presence and positioning of a protective structure. These results emphasize the need for adaptive management of NbS.

Trend Analysis of Tides Level and Projection Sea Level Rise On the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

Globally, sea levels are rising due to climate change caused by humans. Current and future sea level rise will have a variety of effects, particularly on coastal infrastructure. This study analysed the tidal level trend and projected sea level rise along the western coast of peninsular Malaysia using tide level records collected between 1986 and 2012. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test and linear trend were used to determine the tide level trend over time and to predict sea level rise for 2050 and 2100. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the results of the analysis indicated a rising trend at all stations. Tau values for the Mann-Kendall test range between 0.16 and 0.33, while seasonal Mann-Kendall values range between 0.18 and 0.41. Based on the sea level projection analysis, the mean sea level will rise between 8.77 cm and 14.29 cm in 2050, and between 20.44 cm and 33.20 cm in 2100. In conclusion, the sea level trend at all stations on the west coasts of peninsular Malaysia exhibits an upward trend.

Ice-flow perturbation analysis: a method to estimate ice-sheet bed topography and conditions from surface datasets

Abstract One of the largest contributors to uncertainty in predictions of sea-level rise from ice-sheet models is a lack of knowledge about the bed topography beneath ice sheets. Bed topography maps are normally made by interpolating between linear radar surveys using methods that include kriging, mass conservation and flowline diffusion, all of which may miss influential mesoscale (2–30 km) bedforms. Previous works have explored an Ice-Flow Perturbation Analysis (IFPA) approach for estimating bed topography using the surface expression of these mesoscale bedforms. Using regions of Pine Island Glacier that have been intensively surveyed by ice-penetrating radar as test sites, and a refined IFPA methodology, we find that IFPA detects bedforms capable of influencing ice flow which are not represented in Bedmachine Antarctica and other interpolated bed products. We further explore the ability of IFPA to estimate relative bed slipperiness, finding higher slipperiness in the main trunk and tributaries. Alongside other methods which estimate ice thickness, bed topography maps from IFPA have the potential to constrain projections of future sea-level rise, especially where radar data are sparse.

Characterization of uncertainty in maximum tidal elevation near Bangladesh coastline due to uncertain sea level rise

AbstractThe Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna delta is vulnerable to sea level rise from global warming. Based on sea level rise predictions for the year 2100 given in the 6th Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we examine the effect of uncertainty in sea level rise on maximum tidal elevation statistics at several locations along the Bangladesh coastline using a discretized derived distribution approach. For five IPCC scenarios, the standard deviation in maximum tidal elevation including sea level rise is predicted to increase by between 3% and 61% at three different locations for a 41% increase in the standard deviation of mean sea level rise. By excluding the linear effect of sea level rise, the increase in the standard deviation of maximum tidal elevation is found to vary spatially from 2% to 68% with a 41% increase in the standard deviation of sea level rise.

Prediction of Mean Sea Level with GNSS-VLM Correction Using a Hybrid Deep Learning Model in Australia

The prediction of sea level rise is extremely important for improved future climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study uses a hybrid convolutional neural Network (CNN) and a bidirectional long short-term (BiLSTM) model with successive variational mode decomposition (SVMD) to predict the absolute sea level for two study sites in Australia (Port Kembla and Milner Bay). More importantly, the sea level measurements using a tide gauge were corrected using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements of the vertical land movement (VLM). The SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model was benchmarked by a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR) and gradient boosting (GB). The SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model outperformed all the comparative models with high correlation values of more than 0.95 for Port Kembla and Milner Bay. Similarly, the SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model achieved the highest values for the Willmott index, the Nash–Sutcliffe index and the Legates and McCabe index for both study sites. The projected linear trend showed the expected annual mean sea rise for 2030. Using the current trend, Port Kembla was projected to have an MSL value of 1.03 m with a rate rise of approx. 4.5 mm/year. The rate of the MSL for Milner Bay was comparatively lower with a value of approx. 2.75 mm/year and an expected MSL value of 1.27 m for the year 2030.

Spatial sedimentation and plant captured sediment within seagrass patches

Habitat degradation in coastal ecosystems has resulted in the fragmentation of coastal aquatic vegetation and compromised their role in supplying essential ecological services such as trapping sediment or sequestering carbon. Fragmentation has changed seagrass architecture by decreasing the density of the canopy or engendering small patches of vegetated areas. This study aims to quantify the role different patch sizes of vegetation with different canopy densities have in the spatial distribution of sediment within a patch. To this aim, two canopy densities, four different patch lengths, and two wave frequencies were considered. The amounts of sediment deposited onto the bed, captured by plant leaves, remaining in suspension within the canopy, and remaining in suspension above the canopy were used to understand the impact hydrodynamics has on sediment distribution patterns within seagrass patches. In all the cases studied, patches reduced the suspended sediment concentrations, increased the capture of particles in the leaves, and increased the sedimentation rates to the bed. For the lowest wave frequency studied (0.5 Hz), the sediment deposited to the bottom was enhanced at canopy edges, resulting in spatial heterogeneous sedimentation patterns. Therefore, restoration and preservation of coastal aquatic vegetation landscapes can help face future climate change scenarios where an increase in sedimentation can help mitigate predicted sea level rise in coastal areas.

High mid-Holocene accumulation rates over West Antarctica inferred from a pervasive ice-penetrating radar reflector

Abstract. Understanding the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is challenged by the availability and quality of observed paleo-boundary conditions. Numerical ice-sheet models often rely on these paleo-boundary conditions to guide and evaluate their models' predictions of sea-level rise, with varying levels of confidence due to the sparsity of existing data across the ice sheet. A key data source for large-scale reconstruction of past ice-sheet processes are internal reflecting horizons (IRHs) detected by radio-echo sounding (RES). When IRHs are isochronal and dated at ice cores, they can be used to determine paleo-accumulation rates and patterns on large spatial scales. Using a spatially extensive IRH over the Pine Island Glacier (PIG), Thwaites Glacier (THW), and the Institute and Möller ice streams (IMIS, covering a total of 610 000 km2 or 30 % of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)), and a local layer approximation model, we infer mid-Holocene accumulation rates over the slow-flowing parts of these catchments for the past ∼4700 years. By comparing our results with modern climate reanalysis models (1979–2019) and observational syntheses (1651–2010), we estimate that accumulation rates over the Amundsen–Weddell–Ross Divide were on average 18 % higher during the mid-Holocene than modern rates. However, no significant spatial changes in the accumulation pattern were observed. The higher mid-Holocene accumulation-rate estimates match previous paleo-accumulation estimates from ice-core records and targeted RES surveys over the ice divide, and they also coincide with periods of grounding-line readvance during the Holocene over the Weddell and Ross sea sectors. We find that our spatially extensive, mid-Holocene-to-present accumulation estimates are consistent with a sustained late-Holocene period of higher accumulation rates occurring over millennia reconstructed from the WAIS Divide ice core (WD14), thus indicating that this ice core is spatially representative of the wider West Antarctic region. We conclude that future regional and continental ice-sheet modelling studies should base their climatic forcings on time-varying accumulation rates from the WAIS Divide ice core through the Holocene to generate more realistic predictions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet's past contribution to sea-level rise.

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

AbstractUnderstanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER‐X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 Kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre‐industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1,000 and 2,500 GtC, which would cause long‐term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement.

Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Hazard Analysis Based on the Current Generation of Data and Protocols

Sea level rise, as a result of climate change, is expected to drive coastal hazards that could bring significant damages to coastal regions in the future. However, high uncertainties remain in the projections of sea level rise from different climate scenarios and sea level rise prediction models. Quantification and integration of these uncertainties are essential to better inform coastal planning and decision making for climate adaptation, critical for infrastructure sustainability and resilience. This paper advances knowledge cross-cutting structural engineering and climate change in the face of multihazards via a novel framework termed the Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Hazard Analysis (PSLRHA). This study uses the current generation of models and protocols from the climate science research community to better portray the future climate and project sea level rise. The aggregation process produces the probability of exceeding a specific sea level rise threshold at a certain location and facilitates the creation of the global sea level rise hazard map. The relative importance of each climate scenario and sea level rise contributing models are demonstrated via the deaggregation process. We identify the models that have most contribution to extreme sea level rise thresholds, with large fluctuations in the high thresholds among ice sheet models. Finally, we show the practical implementation of PSLRHA results via compound flooding analyses using Houston as an illustrative example.

Barotropic tides in MPAS-Ocean (E3SM V2): impact of ice shelf cavities

Abstract. Oceanic tides are seldom represented in Earth system models (ESMs) owing to the need for high horizontal resolution to accurately represent the associated barotropic waves close to coasts. This paper presents results of tides implemented in the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Ocean or MPAS-Ocean, which is the ocean component within the U.S. Department of Energy developed Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). MPAS-Ocean circumvents the limitation of low resolution using unstructured global meshing. We are at this stage simulating the largest semidiurnal (M2, S2, N2) and diurnal (K1, O1) tidal constituents in a single-layer version of MPAS-O. First, we show that the tidal constituents calculated using MPAS-Ocean closely agree with the results of the global tidal prediction model TPXO8 when suitably tuned topographic wave drag and bottom drag coefficients are employed. Thereafter, we present the sensitivity of global tidal evolution due to the presence of Antarctic ice shelf cavities. The effect of ice shelves on the amplitude and phase of tidal constituents are presented. Lower values of complex errors (with respect to TPXO8 results) for the M2 tidal constituents are observed when the ice shelf is added in the simulations, with particularly strong improvement in the Southern Ocean. Our work points towards future research with varying Antarctic ice shelf geometries and sea ice coupling that might lead to better comparison and prediction of tides and thus better prediction of sea-level rise and also the future climate variability.

Consequences of sea level rise for high metal(loid) loads in the Ría of Huelva estuary sediments

Ría of Huelva, located in southwestern Spain, is a highly metal(loid)-contaminated estuary system where sediments are exceeding action limits in an increasing order for Cd, Zn, Pb, Cu, and As. With a predicted sea level rise over the next 50 years, the estuary will be subject to flooding with brackish water or seawater. To evaluate the risk of metal(loid) mobilization under future climate scenarios, different locations along the estuary were sampled at different depths. Samples were flooded with river water, brackish water, and seawater under different short- and long-term laboratory setups. Potential metal(loid) mobilization showed that water quality standards for As, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cu, and Cd could be exceeded upon seawater flooding. However, metal(loid) mobilization was not predictable solely based on sediment loads. The driving factors for cation and anion mobility were identified to be mainly pH under low salinity and competitive desorption under high salinity conditions. Further drivers such as wave movement or labile C input in C-limited systems were found to enhance metal(loid) mobilization. Long-term flooding of intact sediment cores revealed that sea level rise will have different effects on the estuary system depending on duration of flooding. Short-term flooding in the near future will first affect alkaline sediments and enhance currently low cation mobilization, while anion mobilization due to reductive Fe dissolution will remain high. Once acidic sediments further inland are flooded with seawater, highest contaminant mobilization can be expected as high salinity will further enhance already high cation mobilization under acidic pH. Long-term flooding with seawater will neutralize the sediment pH and limit cation mobilization compared to acidic pH. However, the contaminant load stored in the estuary is so high that, extrapolating data obtained, mobilization could last for >1000 years, e.g. for As, Pb, and Al.

Complex motion of Greenland Ice Sheet outlet glaciers with basal temperate ice.

Uncertainty associated with ice sheet motion plagues sea level rise predictions. Much of this uncertainty arises from imperfect representations of physical processes including basal slip and internal ice deformation, with ice sheet models largely incapable of reproducing borehole-based observations. Here, we model isolated three-dimensional domains from fast-moving (Sermeq Kujalleq/Store Glacier) and slow-moving (Isunnguata Sermia) ice sheet settings in Greenland. By incorporating realistic geostatistically simulated topography, we show that a spatially highly variable layer of temperate ice (much softer ice at the pressure-melting point) forms naturally in both settings, alongside ice motion patterns which diverge substantially from those obtained using smoothly varying BedMachine topography. Temperate ice is vertically extensive (>100meters) in deep troughs but thins notably (<5meters) over bedrock highs, with basal slip rates reaching >90 or<5% of surface velocity dependent on topography and temperate layer thickness. Developing parameterizations of the net effect of this complex motion can improve the realism of predictive ice sheet models.