Sea Surface Research Articles

Future climate change and marine heatwaves - Projected impact on key habitats for herring reproduction

This study explores the impact of global climate targets on sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Baltic Sea. We further evaluate potential adverse climate effects on the reproductive success of the western Baltic Sea (WBS) herring stock, which underwent a dramatic decline during the past two decades. For this, we use refined ensemble climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For the WBS herring spawning ground, the number of MHW days nearly triples from 34 days/year in the historical period, to 102 days/year already under the optimistic 1.5 °C target of global climate warming (Paris, 2015) and further increases at a rate of 36 to 48 [days yr−1]/0.5 °C beyond the 1.5 °C target. The average MHW surface extent more than doubles in the 1.5 °C target from ~8 % to 21 % in this area.This study finds the phenological winter climate considerably altered in response to future global warming and more frequent MHW days in the WBS. The winter duration reduces by ~25 % already in the 2.0 °C target but by ~60 % in the 4.0 °C target compared to the historical climate. Winter inceptions/terminations occur successively later/earlier and the share of missed winters, i.e. winters unsuitable to support herring reproductive success, increases by up to ~70 %. Days with heat stress on the cardiac function of herring larvae will likewise increase and occur earlier in the year. Consequently, the early life cycle of herring will face more often winter conditions that were unprecedented during the historical past, and the risk for future reproductive failure will increase. However, our results reveal that abiotic disturbances for the marine ecosystem can be partly mitigated if global warming remains compliant with the 1.5 °C target.

Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) and occurrence records of Chub mackerel in the North Pacific Ocean (2014–2023), we built eight individual models and four ensemble models to simulate current habitat distribution and forecast changes under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2100s. Ensemble models outperformed individual ones, with the weighted average algorithm model achieving the highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced habitat distribution. Predictions indicate current high suitability areas for Chub mackerel are concentrated beyond the 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under future climate scenarios, habitat suitability is expected to decline, with a shift towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. High suitability areas will be significantly reduced.

East Asian summer monsoon evolution during Heinrich Stadial 5

The bi-millennial Heinrich Stadial 5 (HS 5) event, occurring approximately 48 thousand years ago (kyr BP, before 1950 AD), represents a notable cooling episode during the last glacial period in the Northern Hemisphere. However, our comprehension of its impact on Asian summer monsoon variability remains incomplete, largely because of the scarcity of precisely dated and high-resolution records. Here, we present stalagmite δ18O-inferred absolutely dated decadal-resolved evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during HS 5 from Xianyun Cave, southeastern China. Stalagmite chronology constrains the occurrence of HS 5 from 48.67 ± 0.13 to 46.42 ± 0.10 kyr BP. The Xianyun stalagmite record distinctly reveals the three-phase evolution of the EASM during HS 5. It includes a gradual onset lasting for 0.79 kyr (phase 1) from 48.67 to 47.88 kyr BP, a weak EASM oscillation phase (phase 2) with three centennial-scale intensified monsoon events during 47.88–46.94 kyr BP, followed by a gradual 520-yr recovery phase (phase 3). In phases 1 and 2, the synchronous climatic shifts and resemblance to three notable centennial-scale events observed in both the Xianyun and Greenland ice core records suggest a rapid atmospheric teleconnection between the North Atlantic and EASM regions. During phase 3, the 5-century monsoon recovery registered in the Xianyun record contrasts sharply with the rapid 60-yr rebound in the Greenland ice core record. This disagreement suggests a plausible decoupling between low- and high-latitude climates, probably related to tropical sea surface temperatures variabilities and the distinct responses of the regional Intertropical Convergence Zone to El Niño Southern Oscillation variabilities. Our study highlights the essential role of tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling systems in the termination stages of millennial-scale HS events.

Carbon isotope sratigraphy and biostratigraphy, and associated organic carbon deposition during the Late Cenomanian to Early Turonian in the Tarfaya Basin, Morocco

The Cenomanian-Turonian (C/T) boundary event, also known as Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2), is characterised by significant organic carbon preservation and a positive carbon isotope excursion that is recorded globally in sedimentary strata. In this study of the Tarfaya Basin, Morocco, three outcrop sections were logged - at Lagguing East, Tazra, and En-Naila, dated from Late Cenomanian to Early Turonian. New dating, based on ammonites and planktic foraminifera, combined with high-resolution δ13C isotope stratigraphy, yields a more precise delineation of the C/T boundary in the studied section. A total of 99 samples were collected for combined sedimentological, mineralogical, and geochemical analyses to allow a better understand of the palaeoenvironments of deposition and interpret controlling factors on organic enrichment. Five lithofacies have been identified, all indicative of a relative deep marine setting. Variations in lithofacies can be correlated with relative sea level changes, which align with the global eustatic curve.The OAE2 interval comprises black mudstones that signal anoxic conditions, leading to significant organic matter (OM) preservation, even though they appear weathered in the studied section. Notably, organic matter-rich mudstones were evident during the post-OAE2 Early Turonian maximum marine transgression. Trace element enrichment in these organic-rick mudstones indicates that organic matter accumulation was accompanied with increased sea surface productivity and associated with oxygen-depleted bottom water conditions, which facilitated organic matter preservation and enrichment. Upwelling has also been previously described as a process to deliver nutrients to the shelf, enhancing productivity. Some units with depleted organic content are the result of dilution from continental derived clastics. Others may originally have had high TOC, but were influenced by weathering or diagenetic process, changing from the typical black mudstones to yellow in colour. The identified carbon isotopic values and organic carbon enrichment in the C/T strata of the Tarfaya Basin reflect signals of global perturbations in the carbon cycles.

Effect of temperature on the production and degradation of bromoform and other brominated methanes by marine microorganisms

Brominated methanes such as bromoform (CHBr3) are known to be important carriers of bromine from the ocean to the atmosphere. Bromine released from brominated methanes by photolysis has been shown to catalyze ozone depletion. Marine phytoplankton has been reported as a source of CHBr3 and marine bacteria as a sink for CHBr3. The effects of temperature on both CHBr3 production by phytoplankton and CHBr3 degradation by bacteria have yet to be investigated. We investigated the effects of temperature on CHBr3 production and CHBr3 degradation by marine microorganisms. The marine diatom Ditylum brightwellii (CCMP358) was cultured at 15 °C, 20 °C, 24 °C, and 30 °C. The maximum CHBr3 production rate at 24 °C was 1.57–2.39 pmol (μg chlorophyll a)−1 d−1, several times higher than that at 15 °C (0.25–0.41 pmol (μg chlorophyll a)−1 d−1). Higher rates of CHBr3, CHBr2Cl, and CHBrCl2 production were observed in the late exponential phase (and stationary phase) than in the early exponential phase at each temperature. These results suggest that temperature affects the rate of CHBr3 production during plankton growth. We then cultured the marine α-proteobacterium Phaeobacter gallaeciensis (JCM 21319) and the γ-proteobacterium Pseudomonas sp. HKF-4 at 10 °C, 15 °C, 20 °C, and 25 °C for up to 15 days to analyze temperature effects on spiked 13CHBr3 degradation. The degradation rate of 13CHBr3 by P. gallaeciensis increased with increasing temperature from 10 °C to 25 °C. The half-life of 13CHBr3 at 25 °C was about 1.1 d, which is about 6 times shorter than the half-life at 10 °C (about 6.9 d). On the other hand, the change in the half-life of the degradation of 13CHBr3 by HKF-1 was relatively small as the temperature increased from 10 °C (half-life: about 5.5 d) to 25 °C (half-life: about 1.8 d). Considering the rate of CHBr3 production and degradation at each temperature, we estimated how much of the CHBr3 produced by D. brightwellii for 7 days was degraded by the coexisting bacteria and how much remained after 7 days at each temperature. When coexisting with P. gallaeciensis, the residual CHBr3 concentration in the culture was relatively higher at 20–25 °C. Similarly, when coexisting with HKF-4, it was relatively higher at 20–25 °C. To estimate the impact of future warming on CHBr3 concentrations in the oceans, we assume a 5 °C increase in sea surface temperature, with two sea surface temperatures, 15 °C and 20 °C, changing to 20 °C and 25 °C, respectively. Under this assumption, the residual concentration of CHBr3 produced by D. brightwellii in seawater would be “increased” (or, less likely, “no change”) when P. gallaeciensis coexisted in these areas. Similarly, the total amount of CHBr3 residuals produced by D. brightwellii in the seawater areas where HKF-4 coexisted increased as the temperature increased by 5 °C. If, as the present results suggest, there is a temperature effect on microbial CHBr3 production and degradation in the oceans, then future increases in surface seawater temperature could result in an upward trend in CHBr3 concentrations in the open oceans, although such effects would be greatly influenced by both the phytoplankton species and coexisting bacterial species.

The influence of climate variability events on the mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the temporal variability of mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) over a 29-year period (1993–2021) using satellite altimeters. High-resolution daily sea level anomaly data are considered to identify the mesoscale eddies in the BoB utilizing py-eddy-tracker, an automated eddy detection and tracking method. Wavelet coherence analysis was conducted to find a statistically significant relation between eddy properties and climate indices. The findings indicate that anti-cyclonic eddies are more susceptible to the consequence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) than cyclonic eddies. Additionally, the joined impact of ENSO and IOD conceivably alters eddy activities across the BoB, as the second downwelling coastal Kelvin wave (dCKW) were absent. The mesoscale eddies exhibit correlations with climate indicators, suggesting that eddies get stronger during La Niña and negative IOD years and get weaker during El Niño and positive IOD years. This is because La Niña and negative IOD events intensify the second dCKW, while it weakens or becomes completely absent during El Niño and positive IOD years. Random Forest model was used to compare the influence of ENSO and IOD on the forecasting performance of the eddy properties. It was demonstrated that a unique positive IOD (+IOD) negatively affects the forecasting of eddy properties when using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and SST anomalies. The findings bear importance in verifying and confirming the interactions between the ocean and climate.

High-resolution UK’37 sea surface temperature reconstruction in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the Holocene

Modern sea surface temperatures (SST) were assessed using the alkenone calibration index (UK′37; SST-UK′37) values from twenty-one core-top sediment samples collected along the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean and validated by comparison with satellite-derived SSTs. The SST-UK′37 values revealed an annual signal between 28 and 30°S and a winter signal (83% of the region samples) between 30 and 34° S, with deviations falling within the UK′37 calibration error range. The paleotemperature (SST-UK′37) reconstruction through the Holocene was performed using two high-resolution marine sediment cores from 33 to 34°S latitude band. Millennial-scale variations dominate most of the SST-UK′37 results with changes up to ∼6 °C. Considering the modern ocean circulation dynamics, the SST-UK’37 in our records likely stems from the combined influence of the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF) position and the interaction between the warm, salty, and nutrient-poor Subtropical Shelf Water (STSW) and the cold, fresh, and nutrient-rich Subantarctic Shelf Water (SASW). Our SST-UK’37 results also suggest that the northernmost position limit of the STSF reached around 33°S during the mid-to-late Holocene, while after ∼5500 cal yr BP the Plata Plume Water became the dominant influence on the regional SST-UK’37 signal. Spectral analyses revealed statistically significant oscillations of ∼8600 and ∼ 2250 years in record MDBT 557, and ∼ 5300 and ∼ 2600 years in record MDBT 561 which suggests the influence of Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) on the SST-UK’37, and therefore, on the STSF dynamic through the Holocene.

Influence of galactic cosmic ray flux on extreme rainfall events in Greece and Libya

The Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) flux can contribute to the formation of condensation nuclei (CN), radionuclides, and other particles, which in turn influence the formation of rain and extreme weather events. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the possible influence of GCR flux on the extreme rainfall events that occurred in Greece and Libya in September 2023. We used time series data for GCR, rainfall estimates from ERA5, and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the period between September 1, 2023, and September 11, 2023. The results revealed a negative correlation between GCR and SST of −0.807 (Greece) and −0.828 (Libya), and a positive correlation between precipitation and SST of +0.972 (Greece) and +0.998 (Libya). The GCR flux and SST accounted for approximately 60.52% and 34.53% of the extreme event in Greece, and 33.71% and 65.96% in Libya, respectively. These statistical results indicate that GCR flux contributed to the formation of the extreme precipitation event that caused significant destruction in Greece and Libya in September 2023.

Upwelling processes variability and water circulation along the northern margin of the Gulf of Cadiz

The present study investigates the contributions of upwelling mechanisms (coastal upwelling from boundary divergence and Ekman pumping from spatially variable wind) at the northern margin of the Gulf of Cadiz (NMGoC) based on high-resolution wind. The effects of the spatiotemporal upwelling mechanisms variability are then explored using current observations along with sea surface temperature and sea level anomaly. Upwelling favourable conditions occur throughout the year along the NMGoC, with the strongest intensity near Cape São Vicente due to a persistent positive wind stress curl. In winter, the surface water divergence is restricted to the coastal boundary due to strong coastal upwelling events that result in a cross-shore sea-level gradient close to the coast. Towards the summer, the gradient increases and extends further offshore (over the slope) at the western region due to the intensification of the Ekman pumping. Therefore, the seasonal and spatial variability of coastal upwelling and Ekman pumping contributes significantly to the offshore position of the geostrophic Gulf of Cadiz Current over the western shelf slope. Furthermore, a permanent sea level depression corresponds to the location of the strongest Ekman pumping, near Cape São Vicente. The dynamic adjustment of this feature may drive the cyclonic cell and alongshore poleward currents often observed in the area.

Sea state contributions to thermosteric sea-level in high-resolution ocean-wave coupled simulations

AbstractThis study examines the impact of wave-induced processes (WIPs) in modulating thermosteric sea-level changes, highlighting the need to include these processes in future sea-level rise assessments and climate projections. The impact of wave-induced processes on thermosteric sea-level changes is investigated using coupled ocean-wave simulations. These simulations include the effects of Stokes-Coriolis forcing, sea-state dependent surface stress and energy fluxes, and wave-induced mixing. The experiments use a high-resolution configuration of the Geesthacht COAstal Model SysTem (GCOAST), covering the Northeast Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The GCOAST system uses the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model to account for wave-ocean interactions and ocean circulation. It is fully coupled with the WAM spectral wind wave model. The aim is to accurately quantify the sea state contribution to thermosteric sea level variability and trends over a 26-year period (1992–2017). The ability of wave-ocean coupled simulations to reveal the contribution of sea state to sea level variability and surge is demonstrated. It is clear that wave-induced processes (WIPs) play a significant role in sea surface dynamics, ocean mixing (mixed layer thickness) and modulation of air-sea fluxes (e.g. heat flux) in both winter (10–20%) and summer (10%), which in turn affect thermosteric sea level variability. The North Atlantic (in summer) and the Norwegian Trench (in winter) show significant contributions (40%) to the thermosteric sea-level variability due to wave-induced processes. The influence of WIPs on thermosteric sea level trends in the North Atlantic is up to the order of 1 mm yr-1 in both winter and summer, in the open ocean and at the shelf break. Smaller contributions are observed over the shelf areas of the North Sea. This study underscores the crucial role of WIPs in modulating sea-level changes and highlights the importance of including these processes in future sea-level rise assessments and climate projections.

Sea surface carbon dioxide during early summer at the Tuandao nearshore time series site

To investigate air-sea CO2 flux at the Qingdao nearshore site and its temporal variations, a high-resolution continuous observation of surface carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) was carried out at Zhongyuan Pier near Tuandao from May 25 to July 8, 2019. It was observed that during this period, surface pCO2 varied between ∼490 and ∼690 μatm, mainly associated with sea surface temperature. Surface pCO2 also displayed substantial diurnal variations, with an average amplitude of 64 ± 21 μatm, largely dominated by biological activities. During the observational period, this site acted as a source of atmospheric CO2, releasing 361 mmol CO2 m−2. The notable diurnal variations in air-sea CO2 flux, such as the observed average amplitude of 10.9 mmol m−2 d−1 in this study, pose a challenge for accurately estimating the air-sea CO2 flux in coastal regions without high-resolution observations.

A data-driven Ship Risk Profile model for Turkish Straits (TS-SRP) using Machine Learning

Marine accidents exhibit a higher frequency within ports, internal waters, and narrow waterways as compared to open seas, emphasizing the paramount concern of maritime authorities regarding the safe navigation of ships in congested waters. In response to this issue, coastal states, in addition to flag state and port state measures, institute preventive measures by conducting risk analyses in narrow waterways with geographical restrictions and high traffic density. To meet this need, this study aims to develop a Ship Risk Profile (SRP) model to monitor ships by evaluating the potential risks of the ships passing through narrow waterways and taking the necessary precautions proactively by Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) for mitigating the potential accident and environmental pollution risk. The Turkish Straits is determined as the application area for this paper. The proposed model employs Machine Learning (ML) methods and analyzes targeting factors from Port State Control (PSC), ship particulars obtained from Sailing Plan (SP)-1 reports specific to the Turkish Straits, as well as relevant environmental factors. The results demonstrate that the developed model holds promise for improving safety in Turkish Straits and can be adapted by VTSs in other sea regions by customizing it to suit their specific characteristics and conditions.

Evaluation of CMIP6 models for sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity variability over the Arabian Sea

The capability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6) is analysed in simulating the seasonal variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) over the Arabian Sea in this study. The historical simulations of 11 CMIP6 models, which come from various source are validated with the observational data (HadISST for SST and SODA for SSS). This study covers the Arabian Sea, spanning 5°S to 32°N and 33°E to 80°E from 1985 to 2014 (30 years). Seasonal mean climatology and annual cycle of SST and SSS are estimated over the Arabian Sea. The deviation of coupled model-simulated SST and SSS from the observation is quantified by determining the biases during all the seasons. Four distinct model evaluation measures are used to access the performance of CMIP6 models: root mean square error (RMSE), standard deviation (STD), correlation coefficient (CC) and interannual variability skill score (IVS). CMCC-CM2-SR5, NESM3 and IITM-ESM models for SST yield CC/RMSE values of 0.988/0.174, 0.983/0.204 and 0.963/0.299, respectively. CMCC-CM2-SR5, IPSL-CM6A-LR and CanESM5 models for SSS yield CC/RMSE values of 0.956/0.035, 0.937/0.042 and 0.820/0.069, respectively. Thus, these models having higher CC and lower RMSE among all models, give better performance. The present study is important as the future scenarios can be predicted using the best models.

Elevated sea surface temperature and enhanced primary productivity during Ocean Anoxic Event 1d in the eastern Tethys: Calcareous nannofossil evidence from southern Tibet, China

Mid-Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) are characterized by major disturbances to the global carbon cycle and are considered ancient analogs for anthropogenic global warming. Among these events, OAE 1d, occurring around the Albian-Cenomanian boundary, remains understudied in the eastern Tethys region, leaving a critical palaeogeographic gap that hampers a global understanding of its impacts. In this paper, we present a detailed record of calcareous nannofossil assemblages from the lower to middle part of the Lengqingre Formation in the Chaqiela section of Gamba, southern Tibet, China. The study interval contains abundant, moderately to well preserved calcareous nannofossil assemblages, with Watznaueria barnesiae, Discorhabdus ignotus, Biscutum constans, and Zeugrhabdotus erectus as the dominant species constituting >50% of the assemblages. These nannofossil assemblages allow the study interval to be constrained to Upper Cretaceous (UC) Biozones UC0 through UC2, with the Albian-Cenomanian boundary located in the lower part of the Lengqingre Formation, and the middle part assigned to Cenomanian in the study area. As such, the position of OAE 1d in this section is accurately determined. Calculated nutrient and temperature indices based on nannofossil species with preferred ecologies reveal significant palaeoceanographic changes across the OAE 1d. These changes show increased abundance of warm-water taxa (e.g., Rhagodiscus asper and Zeugrhabdotus diplogrammus) and high-productivity taxa (e.g., D. ignotus, B. constans, and Z. erectus), suggesting increased sea surface temperature and enhanced productivity during OAE 1d in the southwestern shelf sea of the eastern Tethys Ocean.

Mapping phenoregions and phytoplankton seasonality in Northeast Pacific marine coastal ecosystems via a satellite-based approach

Phytoplankton phenology describes yearly algal growth cycles and characterises the timing, duration, and magnitude of bloom occurrences. This study used satellite chlorophyll-a data from 1998 to 2020 and the Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering method to define phenoregions based on phytoplankton phenology spatial patterns over the British Columbia and Southeast Alaska coastal oceans. The defined phenoregions were used to simplify the spatial complexity of the heterogenous study region and thus better describe phytoplankton seasonality across the target area. The cluster analysis allowed the delineation of four coherent regions: two coastal regions and northern and southern shelf/offshore regions. Results showed that each phenoregion had distinguishable phytoplankton phenological characteristics, likely due to different physical forcings acting in these areas. Moreover, the interannual variability of the spring bloom initiation was evaluated considering interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO). Early spring blooms were associated with positive SST anomalies and El Niño conditions; conversely, average or late spring blooms occurred in years with negative SST anomalies and La Niña conditions, with the strongest relationship occurring in the southern shelf/offshore phenoregion. This study provided new insights into the regionalisation of the British Columbia and Southeast Alaska coastal oceans based on phytoplankton phenology patterns. Given the critical role of phytoplankton as the base of the marine food web, such phenoregions have implications for regional zooplankton biomass and fish production. The link between phytoplankton phenology and climate drivers points to the importance of environmental change in phytoplankton bloom dynamics. Further research into the connection between phytoplankton bloom indices and zooplankton community structure and production would be an important step towards using these indices for ecosystem monitoring and fisheries management.

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

Abstract This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ∼25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

Heat stress mediates toxicity of rutile titanium dioxide nanoparticles on fertilisation capacity in the broadcast spawning mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis

Titanium dioxide nanoparticle (nTiO2) pollution of marine environments is rapidly increasing with potentially deleterious effects on wildlife. Yet, the impacts of nTiO2 on reproduction remain poorly understood. This is especially the case for broadcast spawners, who are likely to be more severely impacted by environmental disturbances because their gametes are directly exposed to the environment during fertilisation. In addition, it is unclear whether rising water temperatures will further exacerbate the impact of nTiO2 toxicity. Here, in a series of fertilisation trials, we systematically examine the main and interactive effects of nTiO2 exposure and seawater temperature on fertilisation success in the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. Specifically, our fertilisation trials explored whether nTiO2 exposure influences fertilisation rates when (i) eggs alone are exposed, (ii) both sperm and eggs are exposed simultaneously, and (iii) whether increases in seawater temperature interact with nTiO2 exposure to influence fertilisation rates. We also ask whether changes in nTiO2 concentrations influence key sperm motility traits using computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA). In fertilisation trials for treatment groups (i) and (ii), we found no main effects of nTiO2 at environmentally relevant concentrations of 5, 10 and 50 μg L−1 on fertilisation capacity relative to the control. Consistent with these findings, we found no effect of nTiO2 exposure on sperm motility. However, in treatment group (iii), when fertilisation trials were conducted at higher temperatures (+6 °C), exposure of gametes from both sexes to 10 μg L−1 nTiO2 led to a reduction in fertilisation rates that was significantly greater than when gametes were exposed to elevated temperature alone. These interacting effects of nTiO2 exposure and seawater temperature demonstrate the toxic potential of nTiO2 for fertilisation processes in a system that is likely to be impacted heavily by predicted future increases in sea surface temperatures.

Diverse Responses of Strong Positive SST and Rainfall Indian Ocean Dipole Events under Greenhouse Warming

Abstract Recent research has shown that there is a projected increase in the frequency of strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (spIOD) events in terms of both sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation. However, it is not clear whether the spIOD events defined by SST and precipitation, hereafter referred to as SST-spIOD and Pr-spIOD events, respectively, will increase at the same pace under greenhouse warming. Using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and CMIP6 that can reasonably simulate the spIOD events, here we find that the occurrence of Pr-spIOD events increases much more than that of SST-spIOD events (+217% vs +77%) under the future high-emission scenario. The diverse response stems from a notably large increase in the spIOD events with strong rainfall but moderate SST anomalies (Pr-only spIOD), which is facilitated by a change in the local meridional Hadley circulation induced by land–sea thermal contrast in addition to the background mean-state SST warming. For the spIOD events with prominent anomalies in both rainfall and SST (concurrent spIOD), their occurrences are projected to increase, but their average SST amplitude is projected to weaken. The increased occurrence is associated with a westward-extended structural change induced by mean linear zonal advection feedbacks, while the weakened event-average SST amplitude results from a more stabilized atmosphere and coincides with the projected reduction in IOD SST skewness. Our results suggest that IOD-related mitigation strategies should consider the diverse responses of different kinds of spIOD events to greenhouse warming.

A geospatial web service for small pelagic fish spatial distribution modeling and mapping with remote sensing

Small pelagic fish are an essential resource for coastal countries worldwide and their assessment and monitoring are a key part of successful fisheries management. Advances in marine satellite remote sensing can contribute to the creation of methodologies for continual small pelagic fish spatial distribution monitoring that can act as supplementary tools for fisheries management decision making, enhancing traditional field practices. In this work a comprehensive Geospatial Web Service (GWS) is proposed that utilizes Sentinel-3 data to publish Spatial Distribution Modeling (SDM) maps for anchovy (Engraulis encrasiculous) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus). The proposed GWS is developed through the sole use of open-source programming languages and software and provides fishery management related data through various parameters: A) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a Concentration (CHL), B) mesoscale oceanic fronts and C) the SDM maps for the target species. The SDM results are produced through a Random Forest algorithm and utilized oceanographic parameters relevant to the ecological needs of the target species (CHL, SST, oceanic fronts and bathymetry). All data are processed and gap-free through a spatiotemporal DINEOF interpolation, allowing the continuous provision of information independently of the weather conditions. Furthermore, the service integrates auxiliary information, such as weather and sea state forecasts, that aim to contribute to maritime safety for effective decision-making. The resulting GWS offers an easy to use and interactive tool that bridges the gap between the scientific community and the decision makers. The utilization of satellite remote sensing enhances the scalability of the proposed service for future improvements and continuous monitoring.

Impact of Monsoon Variability on the Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Carbon Cycle on an Interannual Time Scale

Abstract A monsoon climate covers a large portion of the global land and exhibits notable interannual variations. However, the effect of monsoon variability on the terrestrial carbon cycle has been investigated less due to the gap between physical and biogeochemical climate research communities. Here, using the FLUXCOM dataset, we show that the Northern Hemisphere land monsoon (NHLM) regions account for 40.24% (±3.40%) [±one standard deviation (SD)] of the climatological summer mean net ecosystem production (NEP) over the NH land from 1981 to 2010 and contribute 21.35% (±7.57%) to the interannual variability (IAV) in NH NEP. Using singular value decomposition (SVD), we find that the leading modes of NEP anomalies are associated with El Niño development and decay phases. During the El Niño–developing summer, a higher sea surface temperature in the tropical central-eastern Pacific results in reduced photosynthetic productivity and weaker carbon uptake because of the reduced precipitation associated with monsoon circulation changes. Precipitation is the predominant driver of NEP anomalies relative to temperature and radiation, contributing 65.20% in the NHLM regions. During the El Niño–decaying summer, abundant rainfall along the Yangtze River valley in China results in increased photosynthetic productivity and ecosystem respiration, leading to less change in carbon uptake. In other monsoon regions, photosynthesis anomalies are driven by higher temperatures, and respiration anomalies are driven by enhanced precipitation. Both of these conditions are favorable for the release of CO2 into the atmosphere. Our study highlights the impact of monsoon variability on the carbon cycle in monsoon regions during different phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution.