Screening High-risk Populations Research Articles

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of tuberculosis spread among smokers with case detection

<p>Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of deadly infectious diseases worldwide. Smoking habits are a significant factor that can increase TB transmission rates, as smokers are more susceptible to contracting TB than nonsmokers. Therefore, a control strategy that focused on minimizing TB transmission among smokers was essential. The control of TB transmission was evaluated based on the case detection rate. Undetected TB cases often resulted from economic challenges, low awareness, negative stigma toward TB patients, and health system delay (HSD). In this study, we developed a mathematical model that captured the dynamics of TB transmission specifically among smokers, incorporating the effects of case detection. Our innovative approach lied in the integration of smoking behavior as a key factor in TB transmission dynamics, which has been underexplored in previous models. We analyzed the existence and stability of the TB model equilibrium based on the basic reproduction number. Additionally, parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential factors in the spread of the disease. Furthermore, this study investigated the effectiveness of various control strategies, including social distancing for smokers, TB screening in high-risk populations, and TB treatment in low-income communities. By employing the Pontryagin maximum principle, we solved optimal control problems to determine the most effective combination of interventions. Simulation results demonstrated that a targeted combination of control measures can effectively reduce the number of TB-infected individuals.</p>

Environmental and Genetic Risk Factors for Gastric Cancer.

Gastric cancer is a heterogeneous and prevalent disease. The traditional environmental exposures associated with elevated risk of gastric cancer are less prevalent in the USA today. Genetic risks and risks associated with inflammation remain. Most cases are sporadic, and familial clustering is observed in about 10% of the cases. Hereditary gastric cancer accounts for a very low percentage of cases. Here we review the genetic and environmental risk factors associated with the disease. In addition, we will review screening guidelines and current modalities that are available for screening in high-risk populations.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Frailty in Patients with Chronic Diseases.

The occurrence rate of frailty is high among patients with chronic diseases. However, the assessment of frailty among these patients is still far from being a routine part of clinical practice. The aim of this study is to develop a validated predictive model for assessing frailty risk in patients with chronic illnesses. This study recruited 543 patients with chronic diseases, and 237 were included in the development and validation of the predictive model. A total of 57 frailty related indicators were analyzed, encompassing sociodemographic variables, health status, physical measurements, nutritional assessment, physical activity levels, and blood biomarkers. There were 100 cases (42.2%) presenting frailty symptoms. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that gender, age, chronic diseases, Mini Nutritional Assessment score, and Clinical Frailty Scale score were predictive factors for frailty in chronic disease patients. Utilizing these factors, a nomogram model demonstrated good consistency and accuracy. The AUC values for the predictive model and validation set were 0.946 and 0.945, respectively. Calibration curves, ROC, and DCA indicated the nomogram had favorable predictive performance. Altogether, the comprehensive nomogram developed here is a promising and convenient tool for assessing frailty risk in patients with chronic diseases, aiding clinical practitioners in screening high-risk populations.

Prostate cancer among Saudis: a registry review.

Policy makers in Saudi Arabia greatly rely on published studies to make major public health decisions. Prostate cancer (PCa) studies in Saudi Arabia are either outdated or limited to local regions. The authors aim to analyze the Saudi Cancer Registry to determine the incidence of PCa across all regions of the Kingdom and the risk factors of poor prognosis in the population. Patients diagnosed with primary PCa from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017 were included in the study from the Saudi Cancer Registry. Incidence rates and risk factors for poor survival were calculated. A total of 3607 PCa patients were retrieved. PCa incidence rates ranged from 0.2 to 1.4 per 100000. Most of the patients were aged 60 and older (86.5%; n=3120), married (97%; n=3497) and lived in the central region (38.1%; n=1375). The mean age at diagnosis was 71.1 (10.8) years. Over half of all tumors were poorly differentiated (64.2%; n=2317), and localized (60.4%; n=2180). The all-time metastasis rate reached 31.4% (n=1131). The lowest mean survival was in those with distant metastasis (P=0.039). Age groups, marital status, tumor morphology, place of residency, and grade were not proven to significantly influence survival. The high metastasis rate and evidence of a greater incidence of newly diagnosed metastatic PCa indicate that the idea of select screening for certain high-risk populations is not farfetched. The authors encourage the promotion of awareness regarding PCa risk factors and screening to optimize prognosis and minimize late presentations and high metastasis rates.

Prevalence, cessation, and geographical variation of smoking among middle-aged and elderly adults in China: A population-based study.

Smoking significantly burdens human health, contributing to an increasing incidence of mortality and morbidity. This study aims to explore the prevalence of smoking, cessation, and the association between various risk factors and smoking intensity measured in pack-years among Chinese adults. During 2020-2021, the China Stroke High-risk Population Screening and Intervention Program (CSHPSIP) invited participants aged ≥40 years from 31 provinces in mainland China. This cross-sectional study presents the standardized prevalence of smoking and cessation across various demographics, including age, sex, residence, income, education level, BMI, and geographical region of residence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the associations between smoking pack-years and related factors. Among 524741 participants (mean age: 61.9 ± 10.9 years; 41.1% male; 58.9% female), standardized smoking prevalence was 19.3% (95% CI: 19.2-19.4), with men (37.2%; 95% CI: 37.0-37.4) displaying significantly higher rates than women (1.3%; 95% CI: 1.2-1.3). Smoking cessation rate stood at 11.2% (95% CI: 11.0-11.4), with 11.3% (95% CI: 11.1-11.5) for men and 8.4% (95% CI: 7.5-9.2) for women. Urban residents and those with advanced education had lower smoking rates and higher cessation rates. Additionally, the dose-response relationship indicated a more pronounced association between higher smoking pack-years and elevated health risks, including hypertension (AOR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.24-1.36), diabetes (AOR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.20-1.33), hyperlipidemia (AOR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.16-1.28), heart disease (AOR=1.40; 95% CI: 1.26-1.54), and stroke (AOR=1.23; 95% CI: 1.10-1.36). This comprehensive study emphasizes the profound impact of smoking on health in Chinese adults, indicating the critical need for tailored cessation programs, particularly for middle-aged individuals, men, rural residents, and those with lower level of education.

A Novel Prediction Model for BK Virus Associated Hemorrhagic Cystitis in Acute Leukemia Patients Following Allogenic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction BK polyomavirus (BKV) has been associated with hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HSCT). BK virus hemorrhagic cystitis (BKHC) is associated with high morbidity and higher mortality. Previous studies have identified several risk factors associated with BKHC (Biol Blood Marrow Transplant, 2022). However, these results are contradictory among studies, and the potential mechanisms of BKHC are still unclear. Therefore, an accurate systematic evaluation method for screening high-risk populations before the onset of BKHC is highly necessary. This study was designed to establish an efficient prediction model for BKHC in acute leukemia patients following HSCT, thereby facilitating identification and early intervention in patients at high risk of BKHC. Methods In our retrospective study, a cohort of 789 acute leukemia patients following allogenic hematopoietic cell transplantation in 2019 was included and further divided into a BKHC group and a non-BKHC group. Among these patients, 80% were assigned to the derivation cohort, and 20% were assigned to the validation cohort. We first calculated the univariate association of each variable with the occurrence of BKHC. Second, the variables with p values less than 0.05 in the univariate analysis were further included as candidate predictors in the multivariate analysis using a backward stepwise logistic regression model. The variables that remained in the final model based on the outcomes of the multivariate analysis in the derivation cohort were identified as independent risk factors. The discrimination power of the model was assessed in both derivation and validation cohorts through ROC curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analyses. Results Among 789 acute leukemia patients following allogenic hematopoietic cell transplantation, 171 patients were diagnosed with BKHC 14 days post transplantation according to the European Conference on Infections in Leukemia (ECIL) definition of BKHC. Patients with early-onset HC occurring within 14 days post transplantation were excluded from the BKHC group. The incidence rate of developing BKHC after allo-HSCT was 21.7%. The median time from transplantation to BKHC development was 30 days. Using multivariable logistic regression methods with stepwise variable selection, four highly significant independent risk factors for developing BKHC were identified: use of ATG during the transplantation regimen (p=0.048; odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.025-1.71), use of bone marrow blood and peripheral blood as sources of stem cells (p<0.001; odds ratio [OR], 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.025-1.71), age less than 30 years old (p=0.02; odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.089-1.021) and absolute lymphocyte count at 14 days post-transplantation less than 0.035×10 9/L (p=0.02; odds ratio [OR], 2.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-1.62). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.741 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.694-0.789). According to the calibration plots, the model-predicted probabilities showed a good correlation with actual observed frequencies in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis indicated that the clinical implementation of this model could benefit BKHC patients. A BKV-associated HC Risk Index (BHRI) was constructed according to the regression coefficients. The patient cohort was divided into a high-risk group and a low-risk group according to risk scores. Kaplan‒Meier estimations of the probabilities of BKHC were significantly different between the two risk groups. Conclusions Patients with BKHC after allo-HSCT usually have high morbidity and higher mortality. A novel prediction model, BHRI, was developed and validated, and this is the first straightforward scoring system designed to evaluate the probability of patients developing BKHC after receiving allo-HSCT to treat hematological malignancies. This model can be effectively utilized to help improve the prognosis of BKHC patients by accelerating the early identification of patients at a high risk of developing BKHC and contributing to the appropriate implementation of timely medical support.

“NASH-Worldwide the Commonest Aetiology of Liver Cirrhosis”- a Review Article

NAFLD is defined by the presence of fat in the liver (>5% hepatocytes show macrovesicular steatosis) without evidence of other causes of fat accumulation in the liver such as alcohol use (< 20 g/d for women and <30 g/d for men), hepatitis C or certain medications. The spectrum of disease includes NAFL, NASH, cirrhosis and HCC. Disease progression depends on stages of fibrosis. Patients are usually referred with incidentally noted hepatic steatosis on imaging or elevated liver enzymes. Although liver biopsy is the gold standard for diagnosis but worldwide it’s much under practiced and several non invasive tests are currently recommended to identify at risk NASH (≥ stage 2 fibrosis) or advance fibrosis who are at highest risk of developing to cirrhosis. Screening in high-risk populations - T2DM, obesity with metabolic complications, a family history of cirrhosis or significant alcohol use allows for interventions that may prevent future hepatic complications. Currently, about 38% of the global population has a diagnosis of NAFLD. The incidence of hepatic decompensation, HCC and death related to NASH cirrhosis are expected to increase 2-to 3-fold by 2030. NASH- cirrhosis is already the leading indication of liver transplantation worldwide. Currently no specific treatments is licensed for NASH, lifestyle modification and exercise, primarily weight loss is the key to management. The rising clinical and economic burden of NAFLD has highlighted the need for a streamlined approach to prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease that has been discussed in this narrative review. Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Med. Coll. J. 2023;2(2):112-126.

Association between prediagnostic prostate-specific antigen and prostate cancer probability in Black and non-Hispanic White men.

Although Black men are more likely than non-Hispanic White men to develop and die from prostate cancer, limited data exist to guide prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening protocols in Black men. This study investigated whether the risk for prostate cancer was higher than expected among self-identified Black than White veterans based on prebiopsy PSA level. Multivariable logistic regression models were estimated to predict the likelihood of prostate cancer diagnosis on first biopsy for 75,295 Black and 207,658 White male veterans. Self-identified race, age at first PSA test, prebiopsy PSA, age at first biopsy, smoking status, statin use, and socioeconomic factors were used as predictors. The adjusted predicted probabilities of cancer detection on first prostate biopsy from the logistic models at different PSA levels were calculated. After controlling for PSA and other covariates, Black veterans were 50% more likely to receive a prostate cancer diagnosis on their first prostate biopsy than White veterans (odds ratio [OR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.47-1.53; p<.001). At a PSA level of 4.0ng/mL, the probability of prostate cancer for a Black man was 49% compared with 39% for a White man. This model indicated that Black veterans with a PSA of 4.0ng/mL have an equivalent risk of prostate cancer as White veterans with a PSA of 13.4ng/mL. The findings indicate that, at any given PSA level, Black men are more likely to harbor prostate cancer than White men. Prospective studies are needed to better evaluate risks and benefits of PSA screening in Black men and other high-risk populations.

Factors influencing the intention for lung cancer screening in high-risk populations for lung cancer

ObjectiveUtilizing low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer screening has proven effective in reducing lung cancer mortality among high-risk individuals. This study aimed to investigate the health beliefs, knowledge of lung cancer, and cancer prevention behaviors in adults at high risk for lung cancer, with the goal of identifying predictors influencing their intention to undergo lung cancer screening. MethodsThe study utilized a descriptive cross-sectional design. Online questionnaires, including assessments of lung cancer screening health beliefs, knowledge of lung cancer, cancer prevention behaviors, intention to undergo lung cancer screening, and participant characteristics, were distributed to 186 individuals at high risk of lung cancer through a survey link. The data collection period spanned from April 26 to May 3, 2023. Analytical procedures encompassed descriptive statistics, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson's correlations, and hierarchical multiple regression. ResultsThe mean score for the intention to undergo lung cancer screening in our study was 3.66 out of 5. The regression model explaining the intention to undergo lung cancer screening accounted for 34.7% of the variance. Significant factors identified included stress level (β = 0.20, P = 0.002), perceived risk (β = 0.13, P = 0.040), self-efficacy (β = 0.35, P < 0.001), and engagement in cancer prevention behavior (β = 0.26, P < 0.001). ConclusionsHealthcare providers should implement psychological interventions and provide education about cancer screening for high-risk individuals, aiming to enhance their perceived risk and self-efficacy, thus promoting a higher likelihood of undergoing screening.

Efforts to increase the application of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT): A resident-led strategy to improve lung cancer screening in an urban primary care clinic.

132 Background: Lung cancer carries the highest mortality rate of all malignancies, implicated in approximately 20% of cancer-related deaths in the United States. The 2011 National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) established a 20% reduction in lung cancer-associated mortality associated with annual LDCT screening in high-risk populations compared to screening chest radiography. In 2013 the United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) adopted this approach into their recommendations, with a subsequent update in 2021 establishing a recommended annual LDCT screening for those at high risk. There remains a concerning lack of access to PCP-initiated LDCT screening in medically underserved (e.g., urban, rural) areas, translating to relatively low rates of early lung cancer detection. Methods: Any patient meeting the 2021 USPSTF criteria (at least 20-pack-year history of tobacco use, who still smoke or have quit within the past 15 years) was deemed eligible. Excluded were those meeting these criteria and any patient who had received LDCT within the past 12 months. The pre-intervention stage of this study included a 15-week data collection of chart review to establish baseline rates. The intervention involved an educational flyer detailing the guidelines for lung cancer screening, placed in each clinic exam room to promote patient self-assessment of eligibility. Results: In the 15-week control group (i.e., pre-intervention), 177 patients were eligible for LDCT screening, with 65 successful LDCT orders and 112 not ordered (36.7% screened appropriately) and 27 (41.5%) LDCT orders completed. Through the 15 weeks of post-intervention data, 193 patients were eligible for LDCT screening, with 99 orders placed and 94 not (51.3% screened appropriately), and 42 (42.4%) of these LDCT orders were completed. Conclusions: The initial goal set for this project was a 50% lung cancer screening rate among eligible patients, with at least 50% of those LDCT orders performed by the patient. There was a remarkable improvement in LDCT ordering rates; however, the primary goal of these ordering improvement rates was to translate them into a higher percentage of patients completing these orders. Despite the increase in LDCT orders, the percentage completed stagnated (41.5% pre-intervention, 42.4% post-intervention). It was essential to our team that the interventions remain cost-effective. We did achieve this using printed flyers, allowing for patient-initiated involvement in the process. Using these interventions as a template, a clinic in any setting may benefit their LDCT ordering rates. However, these measures alone will not improve the percentage of patients completing the LDCT orders. As our project continues, we plan to modify the intervention to reflect constructive feedback from the resident physicians and patients involved.

Epidemiological characteristics and risk factors of syphilis among blood donors in Huzhou.

To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and risk factors for syphilis in Huzhou City, and to provide data to support the design of more effective health counselling and screening measures for blood donors. A retrospective study was conducted to analyse the demographic characteristics and seropositivity of syphilis among blood donors from 2019 to 2021. The differences in the serological status of syphilis among different populations under different demographic factors were compared, and conditional logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for syphilis. The seropositivity rate of syphilis among blood donors in Huzhou City was 133/100,000, which decreased year by year. There were significant differences in the syphilis seropositivity rate among different groups in terms of age, education level, occupation, household registration, marital status and blood donation history (P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression model showed that all six factors, including age, education level, occupation, household registration, marital status and blood donation history, had significant effects on syphilis infection (P<0.01), with OR values and 95% CIs of 2. 387 (1.381-4.127), 3.607 (1.609-8.086), 2.784 (1.657-4.679), 5.074 (1.865-13.804), 11.177 (3.481-35.888), and 11.244 (3.940-32.091), respectively. There is room for improvement in pre-donation health counselling and screening of high-risk populations. Timely monitoring and updating of demographic data for specific high-risk populations is essential.

Low-dose CT for lung cancer early-detection in China: Findings from a screening program in Shanghai

Abstract Background Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) has been recommended for lung cancer screening in high-risk populations. This study is aimed to evaluate the effects of LDCT screening for lung cancer in Chinese populations. Methods A total of 26124 subjects aged over 40 years were enrolled from the Minhang District of Shanghai, China, 2013-2017. The detection of lung cancer and the survival status of cases up to Dec 31,2018 were obtained. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was calculated for the screened populations relative to the local general population. Three-year survival rates and proportion of early-stage (stage 0-I) cancer were estimated for all cases from general population and for screen-detected cases. For 12184 high-risk individuals in the screened population, a total of 12184 matched controls without LDCT were identified using propensity score matching (PSM), lung cancer mortality and all-cause mortality were calculated and compared between groups. Results The crude incidence of lung cancer in the screened population was 426.6 (95%CI: 387.4-470.2) per 100000 person-years, with an overall SIR of 2.3 (95%CI: 2.0-2.5). The SIR decreased with the highest level in the first year [3.8 (95%CI: 3.3-4.3)], and a lower level over 3 years [0.6 (95%:CI: 0.5-0.7)]. Early-stage lung cancer accounted for 26.3% of screen-detected cases, significantly higher than 15.3% in all cases during the same period. The 3-year survival rate was also higher in screen-detected cases (60.4%) than all cases (50.9%). Compared with the matched control group, the screened group had a 32.0% (95%CI: 0.47- 0.99) reduced lung cancer mortality and a 56% (95%CI: 0.37-0.52) decreased all-cause mortality. The proportion of early-stage lung cancer was also higher in cases screened-detected than in non-screened (28.9% vs 11.8%, p &amp;lt; 0.05). Conclusions Our results prove the benefits of LDCT screening and its great potential in reducing the disease burden of lung cancer in Chinese populations. Key messages • LDCT screening improved the detection of lung cancer in Chinese populations, and increased the proportion of early-stage cancer and 3-year survival rate of detected lung cancer cases. • LDCT screening decreased 32% of lung cancer mortality and 56% of all-cause mortality in Chinese populations.

Plasma cell-free DNA methylation analysis for ovarian cancer detection: Analysis of samples from a case-control study and an ovarian cancer screening trial.

Analysis of cell-free DNA methylation (cfDNAme), alone or combined with CA125, could help to detect ovarian cancers earlier and may reduce mortality. We assessed cfDNAme in regions of ZNF154, C2CD4D and WNT6 via targeted bisulfite sequencing in diagnostic and early detection (preceding diagnosis) settings. Diagnostic samples were obtained via prospective blood collection in cell-free DNA tubes in a convenience series of patients with a pelvic mass. Early detection samples were matched case-control samples derived from the UK Familial Ovarian Cancer Screening Study (UKFOCSS). In the diagnostic set (ncases = 27, ncontrols = 41), the specificity of cfDNAme was 97.6% (95% CI: 87.1%-99.9%). High-risk cancers were detected with a sensitivity of 80% (56.3%-94.3%). Combination of cfDNAme and CA125 resulted in a sensitivity of 94.4% (72.7%-99.9%) for high-risk cancers. Despite technical issues in the early detection set (ncases = 29, ncontrols = 29), the specificity of cfDNAme was 100% (88.1%-100.0%). We detected 27.3% (6.0%-61.0%) of high-risk cases with relatively lower genomic DNA (gDNA) contamination. The sensitivity rose to 33.3% (7.5%-70.1%) in samples taken <1 year before diagnosis. We detected ovarian cancer in several patients up to 1 year before diagnosis despite technical limitations associated with archival samples (UKFOCSS). Combined cfDNAme and CA125 assessment may improve ovarian cancer screening in high-risk populations, but future large-scale prospective studies will be required to validate current findings.

Health Care Utilization and Costs in Lung Cancer Screening Participants—A Propensity-Matched Economic Analysis

IntroductionLung cancer screening (LCS) for high-risk populations has been firmly established to reduce lung cancer mortality, but concerns exist regarding unintended downstream costs. MethodsMean health care utilization and costs were compared in the Alberta Lung Cancer Screening Study in a cohort undergoing LCS versus a propensity-matched control group who did not. ResultsA cohort of 651 LCS participants was matched to 336 unscreened controls. Over the study period (mean 3.6 y), a modest increase in the number of claims (22.4 versus 21.9 per person-year [PY]; Δ 0.50 [95% confidence interval: 0.15–0.86], p = 0.006) and outpatient visits (4.01 versus 3.50 per PY; Δ 0.51 [0.37–0.65], p <0.0001), but not in inpatient admissions, was noted in the screened cohort. Claims payments, inpatient costs, and cancer care costs were similar in the screening arm versus the unscreened. Outpatient encounter costs per participant were higher in the screened group ($2662.18 versus $2040.67 per PY; Δ −$621.51 [−1118.05 to −124.97], p = 0.014). Removing the additional computed tomography screening examinations rendered differences not significant. Mean total costs were not significantly different at $6461.10 per PY in the screening group and $6125.31 in the unscreened group (Δ −$335.79 [−2009.65 to 1338.07], p = 0.69). ConclusionsModest increases in outpatient costs are noted in individuals undergoing LCS, in part attributable to the screening examinations, without differences in overall health care costs. Health care costs and utilization seem otherwise similar in individuals participating in LCS and those who do not.

Trends and influence factors in the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension among US adults from 1999 to 2018.

We aimed to describe the trends and influence factors in the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension among US Adults from 1999 to 2018. We utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning ten survey cycles (n = 53,496). Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension were calculated using survey weights. Joinpoint regression and survey-weighted generalized linear models were used to analyze trends and influence factors, respectively. The estimated prevalence of hypertension increased significantly from 33.53% to 40.58% (AAPC = 0.896, P = 0.002) during 1999-2018 with dropping rate of newly diagnosed hypertension from 8.62% to 4.82% before 2014 (APC = -4.075, P = 0.001), and then rose to 7.51% in 2018 (APC = 12.302, P = 0.126). Despite modest improvements or stability in the awareness, treatment, and control since 1999, the latter two remained inadequate in 2018 at 59.52% and 51.71%. There was an uptrend in the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (from 24.02% to 45.71%) and angiotensin receptor blockers (from 20.22% to 38.38%), and downtrend in β-blocker (from 12.71% to 4.21%). Men were at higher risk of incidence, un-awareness, un-treatment, and un-control for hypertension. Lower income and education were associated with susceptibility to hypertension, while being married was favorable for treatment and control. Optimal health reduced the incidence of hypertension, and increased the awareness and treatment. Although the rate of newly diagnosed hypertension has declined slightly since 2010 in the US, the prevalence of hypertension is increasing, and treatment and control rates remain inadequate. To manage hypertension effectively, we need to focus on screening and prevention for high-risk populations, while advocating for optimal health to improve the burden of hypertension.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram for prediction of ketosis-prone type 2 diabetes.

Ketosis-prone type 2 diabetes (KPD), as a unique emerging clinical entity, often has no clear inducement or obvious clinical symptoms at the onset of the disease. Failure to determine ketosis in time may lead to more serious consequences and even death. Therefore, our study aimed to develop and validate a novel nomogram to predict KPD. In this retrospective study, clinical data of a total of 398 newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in our hospital who met our research standards with an average age of 48.75 ± 13.86 years years old from January 2019 to December 2022 were collected. According to the occurrence of ketosis, there were divided into T2DM groups(228 cases)with an average age of 52.19 ± 12.97 years, of whom 69.74% were male and KPD groups (170cases)with an average age of 44.13 ± 13.72 years, of whom males account for 80.59%. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent influencing factors of KPD and then a novel prediction nomogram model was established based on these independent predictors visually by using R4.3. Verification and evaluation of predictive model performance comprised receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, corrected calibration curve, and clinical decision curve (DCA). 4 primary independent predict factors of KPD were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis and entered into the nomogram including age, family history, HbA1c and FFA. The model incorporating these 4 predict factors displayed good discrimination to predict KPD with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.945. The corrected calibration curve of the nomogram showed good fitting ability with an average absolute error =0.006 < 0.05, indicating a good accuracy. The decision analysis curve (DCA) demonstrated that when the risk threshold was between 5% and 99%, the nomogram model was more practical and accurate. In our novel prediction nomogram model, we found that age, family history, HbA1c and FFA were the independent predict factors of KPD. The proposed nomogram built by these 4 predictors was well developed and exhibited powerful predictive performance for KPD with high discrimination, good accuracy, and potential clinical applicability, which may be a useful tool for early screening and identification of high-risk population of KPD and therefore help clinicians in making customized treatment strategy.

Time trend of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region: age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and forecasting for 2044

BackgroundPancreatic cancer poses a serious medical problem worldwide. Countries in the Western Pacific Region are facing public health challenges from cancer. This study assesses the time trends of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2019 and predicts its trend to 2044.MethodsMortality data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange. We used an age-period-cohort model to estimate age, period and birth cohort effects on pancreatic cancer mortality from 1990 to 2019 by calculating net drift, local drift, age-specific rate, period rate ratio, and cohort rate ratio. We also predict pancreatic cancer mortality to 2044 in Western Pacific countries.ResultsOverall, there were 178,276 (95% uncertain interval: 157,771 to 198,636) pancreatic cancer deaths in the Western Pacific Region in 2019, accounting for 33.6% of all deaths due to pancreatic cancer worldwide. There were significant increases in pancreatic cancer disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2019 in the Western Pacific Region, mainly due to population growth and aging. Pancreatic cancer mortality increased with age. The period effect showed an increasing trend of mortality for both sexes over the study period. Compared to the reference period (2000 to 2004), the rate ratio was elevated in both males and females in the period of 2015 to 2019. There was an overall increasing rate ratio from early birth cohorts to recent cohorts. Deaths may continue to increase in the next 25 years in the ten countries, while most countries have seen their age-standardized rate forecasts fall.ConclusionThe mortality of pancreatic cancer is still high in the Western Pacific Region. Countries/territories should focus on pancreatic cancer prevention and early cancer screening in high-risk populations. Specific public health methods and policies aimed at reducing risk factors for pancreatic cancer are also needed.

56 Audit of assessment, prevalence, and treatment of osteoporosis for patients attending the inflammatory bowel disease Service in Mullingar Regional Hospital

Abstract Background Courses of steroids are common in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) and are a risk factor for developing osteoporosis. Osteoporosis is a clinically silent entity and osteoporosis-related fractures are associated with chronic pain, disability, and impact quality of life. Screening of high-risk populations is the mainstay of fracture prevention. In this audit, we aimed to assess adherence to international guidelines for osteoporosis risk assessment and bone protection. Methods A retrospective audit was performed with a random sampling of 10% of the patients attending between October 2021 to October 2022 the IBD outpatient clinic in Mullingar Regional Hospital. Data included demographics, IBD diagnosis, FRAX tool components, FRAX score, bone health screening, DEXA results, and use of bone mineral protection. Clinical practice was compared against European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO) recommendations on bone protection in IBD. Results Of 150 charts reviewed, 39 charts were missing essential data and 8 had a diagnosis other than IBD. All 103 patients included in the analysis had received &amp;gt;3 months of systemic steroid use, of which 50 had a diagnosis of Crohn’s disease and 63 with ulcerative colitis. Two (2%) patients had a FRAX risk assessment for osteoporosis, and 22 (21%) had a DEXA ordered, of which 7 (7%) were by the IBD clinic. Two (2%) patients had a previous fragility fracture and 3 (3%) had been diagnosed with osteoporosis. Bone protection was used in 21 (20%) patients receiving steroids, including calcium and vitamin D supplementation (n = 19), and bisphosphonate (n = 2). Conclusion There are low rates of osteoporosis screening for IBD patients attending this service. There was inadequate data in the charts to calculate FRAX scores to assess osteoporosis prevalence. An intervention tool is currently being designed and the audit cycle will be completed with a repeat audit after implementation.

Serological investigation of brucella infection using a dipstick assay among individuals with unexplained fever in farming-pastoral areas of Xinjiang, China

ObjectiveTo evaluate the brucellosis detection of the dipstick assay coated with LPS antigen from Brucella melitensis vaccine strain M5 compared with Rose Bengal test (RB) and serum agglutination test (SAT), and investigate the brucella infection with the dipstick assay among people with unexplained fever in farming-pastoral areas of Xinjiang, China. MethodsThe dipstick assay was repeated to verify 130 positive and 200 negative serum samples, which had been confirmed by RB and SAT, for sensitivity and specificity analysis. Subsequently, 313 sera from people with unexplained fever in farming-pastoral areas including 6 counties in 3 regions where brucellosis is endemic and 200 sera from nonendemic city area (Urumqi City) in Xinjiang were detected with the dipstick assay for population infection rate survey. ResultsSensitivity and specificity was 100% and 97% respectively with dipstick assay compared with RB and SAT. The average positive rate of sera from people with unexplained fever from farming-pastoral areas in Xinjiang was 18.5% (58/313) and the highest was 22.5% (9/40). ConclusionsThe proportion of brucellosis infection among individuals with fever of unknown origin is relatively high in agricultural and pastoral areas of Xinjiang. The dipstick assay has a series of advantages such as low cost and fast speed, which make it suitable for the primary screening of high-risk populations.

Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for oral cancer in India: an economic modelling study.

Oral cancer screening reduces mortality associated with oral cancer. The current study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of commonly used screening techniques, namely conventional oral examination (COE), toluidine blue staining (TBS), oral cytology (OC), and light-based detection (LBD) in the Indian scenario. The study used a Markov modelling approach to estimate the cost and health outcomes of four different approaches (COE, TBS, OC, and LBD) for screening oral cancer over time from a societal perspective. The discount rate was assumed as 3%. The outcomes estimated were oral cancer incident cases, deaths averted, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). To address the high burden of risk factors (tobacco and/or alcohol) in India, two Markov models were developed: Model A adopted a mass-screening strategy, whereas Model B adopted a high-risk screening strategy versus no screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was undertaken to address any parameter uncertainty. Mass-screening using LBD at three years had the least incident cases (3271.68) and averted the maximum number of oral cancer deaths (459.76). High-risk screening using COE at ten years interval incurred the least lifetime cost of 2,292,816.21 US$ (182,794,468.26 INR). The high-risk strategies (US$/QALY), namely COE 5 years (-29.21), COE 10 years (-90.68), TBS 10 years (-60.54), and LBD 10 years (-13.51), were dominant over no-screening. The most cost-saving approach was the conventional oral examination at an interval of 10 years for oral screening in high-risk populations above 30 years of age. Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India.