Scientific Foresight Research Articles

THEORETICAL DIMENSIONS FOR INTEGRATING RESEARCH ON ANTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE, SCIENTIFIC FORESIGHT AND SUSTAINABLE S&T PUBLIC POLICY DESIGN

The future of Science and Technology (S&T) is a continuous and strategic priority for governments, universities, and organizations, driving societal benefits through innovation, sustainability, and development. However, there is a gap—and a critical opportunity—for research on architectures supporting Anticipatory Governance (AG) that integrates Scientific Foresight (ScF) and the design of sustainable S&T policies, especially at federal and state levels in emerging countries. In this context, this paper aims to enhance understanding of the theoretical dimensions essential for integrating AG, ScF, and sustainable S&T policy design, proposing an emergent systemic framework. Adopting a Systematic Literature Review (SLR), the analysis identifies seven theoretical dimensions that unify these three themes, opening new possibilities for integrated research. This method also supported the development of a systemic framework for Anticipatory Governance, Scientific Foresight, and Sustainable S&T Policy Design, setting up foundational components for further testing, development, and providing a research agenda. Implications for systemic and institutional innovation in public management are discussed, indicating that evolving these frameworks could strengthen complex decision-making around public policies and investments in strategic S&T areas involving multiple stakeholders in Foresight and Policy Design, particularly those addressing pressing societal challenges.

Рефлексия о технике в социальной мифологии В.Ф. Одоевского: финал романтического механицизма

The article is devoted to the origins of reflection on technology in Russian philosophy and literature from the 19th and 20th centuries. Our focus is on the technical developments and the phenomenon of technology as it appears in the works of the Russian philosopher Vladimir Odoevsky. The appeal to Odoevsky’s ideas is of particular relevance in today’s context of the formation of technological societies and perspectives. It is with the achievements of mechanics and technology that Odoevsky correlates his hopes for the good development of man and society, he connects the enlightenment and education of young people. At the same time, Odoevsky sees the danger lurking in mechanism and rational knowledge. This danger will be the loss of integrity, decay and devastation that will befall the world that has survived the crisis of culture. Turning to the work of the thinker, we trace the trends in reflection on technology from a philosophical position, as well as in unity with the poetic and musical. The theoretical basis of the study is the opposition of Odoevsky’s technical and poetic as vectors of social development. As a result of the analysis, the author of the article comes to an ambivalent assessment of the role of technology by Odoevsky, contrasting the romanticization of technology with the negative prospects of the “industrial”, “egoistic” century, which are further developed in the domestic and foreign philosophy of technology and anti-utopia of the 20th and 21th centuries. In his futuristic projects, Odoevsky discovers the potential of scientific foresight, embodied in the achievements of modern science and technology. The transition in the assessment of technology from idealism to scientific realism and positivism, reasoning of a social orientation (“Russian Nights”, 1844), the key opposition in Odoevsky’s concept of the romanticization of technology to the negative prospects of technical expansion is further developed in the domestic and foreign philosophy of technology of the 20th and 21th centuries. The modern appeal to reflection on technology in Russian philosophy and literature is due to the expansive introduction of technology into the life of society, the rejection of ethical neutrality and the trend towards autonomy, as well as the demand for the modern educational process, university training programs for both humanitarian and technical orientation.

Review of borehole thermal energy storage systems in unsaturated soils: Materials, mechanism, and future development

AbstractBorehole thermal energy storage (BTES) is an innovative renewable energy technology for building heating and cooling. The lack of studies about BTES in unsaturated soils acts as a barrier to further implementation. In this study, the research obstacles, progress, hotspots, and differences between countries of BTES systems in unsaturated soils were described in detail based on a literature review, bibliometric analysis, technology roadmap, and data visualizations. The results show that the process of coupled heat and moisture transfer has been a research hotspot in recent years, and the thermo‐hydraulic properties increase the complexity of analysis. There are few studies on experimental data and engineering practices of BTES systems in unsaturated soils. China is leading in publications number, but European and North American countries perform better in international cooperation and policy incentives. Technology development will be directly driven by policy momentum, followed by the gradual establishment of a complete research, design, and evaluation system, which helps accelerate the replacement of traditional fossil energy with renewable energy. In an attempt to improve society's awareness and move forward with scientific foresight of BTES systems in unsaturated soils, this review has revealed the evolutionary process, identified its current status, and depicted the future development from political, economic, social, and other dimensions.

On the Epistemological Foundations and Issues of the Modern Legal Understanding Doctrine

This article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis and understanding of existing epistemological approaches to the study of legal understanding. The paper reveals modern doctrinal concepts in relation to the definition of the category “legal understanding”, its ontological, axiological and problematic aspects, provides and critically analyzes some methodological approaches to the organization of the content of the legal understanding doctrine. In particular, the author focuses on the theoretical characteristics of such ontological categories of legal understanding as the essence and definition of the concept of law, considered as its internal content and complete (idealized) form, their axiological problem and epistemological positioning in the structure of modern legal knowledge. From the standpoint of general scientific methods and requirements, the idea of the inadmissibility of ignoring the objective system- and structure-forming properties of these ontological categories, their universal (global) significance and the need to exclude their multivariance (multiplicity) is substantiated.It is concluded that the theory of legal understanding represents the fundamental direction of legal science for developing reliable, objective, and substantiated knowledge about the essence and understanding of law. The theory of legal understanding should be determined by specific (strict) requirements of scientific rationality, such as finding objective laws of change and development of law, establishing its essence, creating an idealized theoretical construct (concept definition) of law, and development of scientific foresight and forecasting of the future of law, etc.

An evolutionary view of foresight in the field of artificial intelligence

The article analyzes the task of scientific foresight in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and assesses the possibility of predicting AI development in the coming decades. Based on an evolutionary model of AI, the authors hypothesize that AI fits into the evolutionary development of humans. Drawing on the ideas of nomogenesis, first introduced by biologist L.S. Berg in 1922, they argue that embracing the concept of stable evolutionary patterns creates a fundamental possibility to predict a certain range of forthcoming changes as a result. The question of transferring the function of foresight from humans to AI is also examined, particularly in areas of science and technology where decision-making necessitates complex analysis of future potential outcomes. Strong arguments are presented in favor of the possibility of predicting AI development in principle, although with some degree of probability. This optimistic view aligns with researchers across various domains of human activity in which AI has already found or will yet find its application.

Viability dyes quantitative PCR (vPCR) assays targeting foodborne pathogens - scientific prospecting (2010–2022)

This prospective review aims to map published assays using viability dyes combined with qPCR (vPCR) to detect viable cells or capsid integrity of pathogens, focusing on food analysis. Studies in the period 2010–2022 were identified in web databases. This scientific foresight study summarizes information on the number of publications, vPCR assays carried out in recent years, and the main target foodborne pathogen species. When using the search terms (“viability dyes” OR “PMA”) AND “quantitative PCR” AND “Foodborne pathogens”, 441 documents were found, of which 288 scientific articles. Among the scientific articles in our search using these keywords, 58 articles refer to the vPCR use for foodborne pathogens detection. Scientific papers on vPCR assays primarily target the following foodborne pathogens: Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, Campylobacter spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Bacillus cereus, and Cronobacter sakazakii, which pose problems for food safety and public health. Challenges for vPCR assay are the optimization of intercalating dye concentration and light exposure conditions for different food matrices. The interference of non-target microorganisms should be considered for food samples containing high microorganisms load.

From Development of the Foundations of Sovereign Democracy Towards the Paradigm of a Unified System of Public Power: Milestones of Scientific Creativity of Valerian A. Lebedev (to the Anniversary of the Scholar)

The review article is dedicated to one of the landmark events for the entire legal world and the community of constitutional law scholars: the anniversary of Doctor of Law, Professor Valerian A. Lebedev, Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation, Honored Lawyer of the Russian Federation, Honorary Worker of Higher Professional Education of the Russian Federation. Prof. Valerian A. Lebedev started his work during a difficult period of reforms initiated for the development of Russian statehood, a change in the paradigm of constitutional law development and a radical restructuring of the basic principles of ensuring and protecting fundamental rights and freedoms of the man and citizen. The paper highlights the main milestones of Prof. Valerian A. Lebedev’s scientific work related to the study of the problems of genuine democracy and sovereignty of the people, the priority of development in compliance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation and substantiation of the concept of sovereign democracy, functioning on the constitutional mechanism for the protection of individual rights, ensuring the principle of political pluralism, building a unified system of public power and a unified legislative system of the country, implementation of the constitutional reform. The paper highlights critically important role of Prof. Valerian A. Lebedev and his scientific creativity for the transitional and modern path of development of the national statehood, comprehensive, acute, problematic nature of his works, the unique scientific foresight of the scholar, who not only foresaw the constitutional reform, but also revealed its key concepts-novels, pitfalls and prospects for improving specific constitutional law institutions. The possibility of studying modern and past research works by Prof. A. Lebedev is presented as a special value for the modern science of constitutional law, since their subject of research covers the key concepts and categories of the theory of Russian constitutionalism, correct understanding of which depends on the possibility of effective implementation of the constitutional principles of the existence of the state and society.

Foresight Competency Styles Upon Academic Leaders at King Abdulaziz University: أنماط كفاءة الاستشراف لدى القيادات الأكاديمية بجامعة الملك عبد العزيز

The study aimed to identify the reality of foresight competence styles upon academic leaders at king Abdulaziz University. and to reveal if there are statistically significant differences between academic leaders due to the different variables (gender, years of experience). The researcher used the descriptive approach, in its survey style, and the researcher used the Foresight Styles Assessment (FSA) scale designed by (Dian, 2009) and developed by (Gary, 2009) and distributed to a sample of (50) individuals from the study population, whose number is (350), and the study concluded that the efficiency of foresight among academic leaders at King Abdulaziz University in general came with an average of (3.84 out of 5), that is, with a (high) efficiency. As for their prevailing foresight patterns, the (adaptive) pattern came in the first order; With an average of (4.01), then the insightful with an average of (3.93) and thirdly the experimenter with an average of (3.80), all of them with a degree of efficiency (high) and finally the pattern of waiting with an average of (3.36) and an estimate of efficiency (medium), and the results concluded that there are no statistically significant differences at the level of significance (0.05). ) between the averages of the academic leaders' responses about the patterns of their foresight efficiency, in their four types, according to the variables of gender or years of experience. In light of the previous results, the researcher recommended the establishment of a center at King Abdulaziz University to be concerned with forward-looking studies; To develop the capabilities of the foresight leaders, and invest them in carrying out prospective studies in all fields, and to disseminate and enhance the skills and tools of scientific foresight in the academic community at King Abdulaziz University and all universities in the Kingdom.

The new role of the technological component in the social reality of the digital transition era

The article explicates a new factor that is relevant for researchers of social processes occurring at a current time. For the first time in the history of mankind, activity at any given moment must be correlated with unpredictable revolutionary development of the technological environment, the result of which, during one human life, repeatedly transforms the socioeconomic environment. In the past history of mankind, when studying social dynamics at any particular moment in time, the factor of the development of the technological environment could be neglected, despite the fact that the state of the technological environment always predetermined the state of the social environment. This action was possible because, within the limits of human life, the technological environment could be perceived as static (constant scenery for the action of the social). Modernity, characterized by a specific pace of development of the digital environment, brings fundamental transformations to this picture. The radical acceleration of the pace of technological development, combined with the focus of this development on the field of information technology, determines the unprecedented originality of the digital era that has come. It is shown that under conditions of the critical speed of transformation processes, the horizons of scientific foresight are sharply narrowed. The author defines the fundamental need for a concept of “techno”. Thus, contemporary social theories require an inextricable connection between the concepts of “socio-technological”.

Demographic future of Russia in the UN forecasts: "scientific foresight" and reality

The article provides a brief history of the emergence of demographic forecasts, shows their use by the United Nations, the range of countries for which forecasts were made and are being drawn up, considers demographic forecasts that were carried out during the Soviet era and provides a detailed analysis of demographic forecasts for Russia. In contrast to the forecasts of the population of the Soviet Union as a whole, for Russia they initially began to focus on the downward dynamics. It is concluded that over two decades (1996-2015) in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos (excluding the former republics of Yugoslavia), the population as a whole has decreased to 95.5%, while in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos — it increased to 123.8%. The forecasts given in the article are compared with the actual size of the population that has already taken place. Everywhere in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos, the actual population is higher than the predicted, and in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos, on the contrary. Comparing the forecasts with the actual population dynamics, the conclusion is substantiated about a noticeable change in the ratio between the two groups of countries united by ethnicity, a decrease in the demographic potential of the Slavic group and its increase in the group with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos. In the final part of the work, it is said that the presented rates of change in the population size in 35 years and then in another 50 years, arising from the UN demographic forecasts for 2050 and 2100, as well as the demographic dynamics in the 90s of the twentieth century and in the first 15 years of the new century, indicate that if Russia, like other Slavic countries do not make radical efforts and, accordingly, do not consistently take effective measures to change the demographic trends, then the same thing can happen to Russia as has happened in different centuries to many countries such as Assyria, the Hunnic Empire, etc. The current geopolitical situation in which Russia is, its status as a great power, the country's largest territory in the world, favorable geographical position and colossal natural resources, dictate the need to increase its economic, defense and, naturally, demographic potential.

ЮРИДИЧНА ТЕХНІКА ФОРМУВАННЯ НОРМ КРИМІНАЛЬНОГО ПРАВА

The purpose of the study is to reveal the features of the legal technique of criminal law rules formation. In our study, the principles and techniques of formal-logical methodology are used, as well as the structural-functional approach is applied. Identifying cross-sectoral links in lawmaking is based on the functional nature of law in general and regulatory means in particular. In addition, dialectical, system-structural and functional methods, the method of interpretation (applied to the current criminal law rules) are used in the paper. Using the formal-legal method, the relationship between the content and form of criminal law rules with the use of legal techniques is traced. Scientific novelty lies in the theoretical understanding and delineation of legal techniques for the formation of criminal law. It is shown that in addition to defects in legal definitions and constructions, there are often conflicts between textually enshrined rules of law. The coordination of actions on the part of law-making bodies adopting by-laws and on the part of the parliament, which should take into account the needs of development and concretization of the provisions of the law in the future, is substantiated. In fact, outside of scientific knowledge at this stage, there is a huge area of legal technology, associated with its features in various fields of law. Obviously, the legal technique in each area has its own specifics. Identification and analysis of factors that cause technical and legal shortcomings improves the quality and efficiency of lawmaking. This does not seem to be enough, because there is no single systematic understanding of the situation in lawmaking in general as well as in criminal law field in particular. It is necessary to direct the technical and legal assessment to eliminate specific shortcomings of system-forming factors in particular. The imperfection of legal acts is a constant source of insufficiently thought-out law-making decisions. As a result of the research, it is argued that in the process of adopting a law-making decision in the field of criminal law, it is necessary to proceed, first of all, from their expediency, objective necessity. It is necessary to take into account the assessment of the consequences arising from the implementation of the rule of law, in particular, how they will affect such processes as latency, corruption, recidivism, as well as the disclosure of their crimes. It is argued that from a technical and legal point of view, it is necessary to make a scientific foresight of the expected positive and negative consequences that arise as a result of issuing a certain law-making decision. The results of the study can be used in lawmaking to improve the quality and effectiveness of criminal law, as well as to reform the Criminal Code of Ukraine.

Prospects of legal regulation of relations in the field of artificial intelligence use

The study covers the issues of legal regulation of relations in the field of artificial intelligence use. The study mainstreams the issue of whether it is possible to contemplate the legal status of a robot at the present stage of human development, or, on the contrary, all discussions on this issue are premature. Various areas of application, applications of robotics and artificial intelligence are considered. Special attention is paid to the medical field, where with the help of modern technologies it has become possible to develop models for predicting breast cancer, a model of cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic people with atherosclerosis, predicting stroke and seasonality of tuberculosis, and predicting the disease in a pandemic. It is argued that the COVID pandemic has reminded the world of the urgent need to intervene in the healthcare industry using artificial intelligence. It is artificial intelligence (AI) that has many applications in pandemic situations – from diagnostics to therapy. Attention is paid to the use of artificial intelligence in the educational, scientific, and research areas. This refers to the fight against the identification of facts of academic dishonesty and plagiarism, to the introduction of new technologies in the educational process. The study considers the existing approaches to the concept, nature, and main features of such categories as “artificial intelligence”, “robot”, and other related concepts in order to understand and comprehend their essence. In the comparative legal aspect, the study examines the RoboLaw project, European Parliament Resolution 2015/2103 (INL), entitled “Civil Law Rules on Robotics” of February 16, 2017, and the Charter of Robotics (the Scientific Foresight Unit, STOA)

Реалізація інноваційних інструментів розвитку аграрного страхування у світі

The article is concerned with analyzing the experience of implementing innovative instruments for the development of agrarian insurance in the world. The article is aimed at defining the latest global trends in the development of insurance in the agricultural sector in order to introduce and implement effective insurance mechanisms in domestic agricultural practice. In the course of the research, the following methods were used: dialectic cognition, abstract-logical approach – in generalization of research results and formulation of conclusions; scientific foresight – in terms of formation of directions for development of the agricultural insurance market in the world. Types of agricultural insurance are defined as follows: private agricultural insurance, the State-based agricultural insurance, non-commercial agricultural insurance. It is noted that the world experience of introducing new insurance programs under the influence of globalization transformations in the global agri-food markets demonstrates new opportunities and challenges for the development of agricultural insurance in Ukraine and requires further scientific researches. A number of reasons have been identified that hinder the development of the agricultural insurance market world-wide. A discrepancy between the dynamics of the development of the agricultural sector of the economy and the volume of agricultural insurance in the world is identified, also the underdevelopment of the insurance instrumentarium in the full extent is specified. It is emphasized that the development, implementation and success of agricultural insurance programs require a high level of coordination, cooperation and common vision. The conclusion on the extant problems of development of the insurance market in Ukraine, caused by the lack of a clear strategy for its development along with no consideration of the interests of all its participants, is substantiated.

ЮЖНЫЙ ОКЕАН - СУРОВАЯ МОРСКАЯ ОКРЕСТНОСТЬ ЛЕДЯНОГО КОНТИНЕНТА

The latest in a series of Great Geographical Discoveries was the finding of a southern ice continent in 1820. It was long expected, but very late for different reasons. Among the main ones are the physical and geographical characteristics of the Southern Polar Region of the Earth, which was discovered much earlier than the Northern one. Geographers and sailors, confident in the polar symmetry of the planet's surface, found it difficult to imagine the location of the still unknown continent so close to the South Pole. In addition, the vast belt of water and ice in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica was (and still is) a serious obstacle to safe navigation. Other reasons were the results of James Cook's Second circumnavigation of the world in 1772­1775 to search for the Southern Mainland. In 1773, Captain D. Cook on the ship Resolution for the first time crossed the Southern Arctic Circle and reached 71° s. s. He considered the voyage in the Southern Ocean quite successful: the Southern hemisphere was sufficiently explored and the search for the Southern continent was put to an end. The authority of the English navigator was so high that nobody tried to refute his opinion for almost half a century. It required not only the courage of scientific foresight, but also the power of a state with a developed shipbuilding industry, skilled sailors and experience of long successful voyages in the World's oceans. At the beginning of the XIX century, Russia having the status of the Ocean Power possessed all this. According to the plan of the Russian Navy Department, the Russian Antarctic Expedition of 1819–1821 was aimed at implementation of scientific exploration in the least studied and most inaccessible high latitudes of the Southern Ocean. One of the participants in the preparation of the expedition, Captain Irank I.F.Krusenstern, wrote that this expedition for exploring the countries around the South Pole with greater accuracy than how much is known about them to this day.... In search of Antarctica, the naval sloops “Vostok” and “Mirny” had to cross the roaring forties and furious fiſties of the southern latitudes and overcome the belt of driſting icebergs and polar ices.

Analysis of meat consumption on the market of the Kursk region

The regional meat market is part of the all-Russian meat market and part of the agricultural and food markets. A market forecast is a scientific foresight of the prospects for the development of demand, supply and prices. Its main role is determined by the large volumes of manufacture and consumption of this group, as well as the importance of meat and meat products as the main sources of animal proteins in the human diet. The structure of meat consumption in Russia and in the Kursk region until 2020 was investigated. The consumption of basic food in thousand tons per capita per year was given, the provisions characterizing the meat market of the Kursk region were determined. The conjuncture of the meat market of the Kursk region is characterized by the ratio of supply and demand for meat and meat products, as well as by the level and ratio of prices. A market analysis of the meat market of the Kursk region was carried out, taking into account external factors (level and structure of income, national production, imports, etc.). The supply and demand curves of the meat market were obtained for the last 5 years. The interrelationship of demand for a product and its determinants is reflected by the general demand function and is presented in the form of a multiple regression model. The regressive addiction of the volume of demand was made up using the MathCADProfessional package. The solution to the system of linear equations is presented in matrix form. The vector of estimates of the regressive model was obtained and an additive function was compiled on the basis of this vector. The forecast оf the demand for meat in the Kursk region was obtained using neural networks (NN). The configured network was used for forecasting using the Neural Network Emulator softwares llike magnm, calciumesium, potassiu, zinc, copper, molybdenum, sodium and chlorine, increased.

Государственное планирование как инструмент поступательного развития сельского хозяйства

Abstract. Purpose. The research is aimed at studying and substantiating the directions of improving the state planning system and adapting the methodology of its use to the trends of modern economic reality. Methods. The methodological apparatus of research on the stated problem is based on methods of economic and comparative analysis, expert assessments. Methodological aspects of the development of the state territorial plan for agricultural development are described. Results and practical significance. The article examines the features of the formation of the state planning system in the agricultural sector of the economy. The mechanism of forming a program-target approach in the national system of state planning is studied. The necessity of using state planning tools in the conditions of adaptation of the agricultural sector of the economy to the trends of turbulence in the world and national economy is substantiated. It is argued that the lack of effective scientific-based tools for the system of state regulation of the economy is becoming the main factor hindering the development of the agricultural production sector of the country. The results of the study show that in modern conditions, the use of state planning tools should be systematic, including macro-and microeconomic aspects. The conceptual provisions of the study and its practical conclusions can be used by economic entities to improve the quality of management decision-making, as well as by public authorities at various levels of management as a tool for scientific foresight and variant analysis to stabilize the agricultural sector of the economy in the new economic reality. Scientific novelty. The developed model of state territorial planning of development of agrarian sector of economy of Russia, presented the key elements of the state strategic planning: plans, forecasts, programmes and projects, and adapted to the new economic reality. The trends of the pandemic allowed us to emphasize once again the author's hypothesis that state planning is a tool for the progressive development of agriculture in modern conditions.

Modern approach of structuring the variety diversity of the naked and covered forms of cultural oats (Avena sativa L.)

Structuring and phenotyping genetic diversity is an important aspect of the work with breeding sources and materials.
 In the Introduction, the authors pointed out the role of N.I. Vavilovs scientific foresight in defining the topical trend in researching the genetic diversity of a crop, particularly the analysis of its biochemical composition. As the target of their research, the authors chose biochemical characters identifiable in the process of metabolomic analysis conducted by means of gas chromatography with mass spectrometry.
 Materials and methods. The object was the grain of naked and covered forms of common oat (Avena sativa L.) from the collection held by the Oat, Rye and Barley Genetic Resources Department of VIR. The analysis of oil fatty acid content and metabolomic research were performed using the method of gas chromatography with mass spectrometry on the chromatograph Agilent 6850 (USA).
 Results. The obtained metabolomic spectra which reflected the metabolomic status of genotypes of various ecogeographic origin were compared among themselves using statistical (principal component) analysis methods. The results of the comparison are discussed by referring to the most important groups of metabolites significant for forming the traits of resistance to stressors as well as the characters related to food qualities of grain products. Special attention has been paid to biologically active compounds determining the functional value of the products for human nutrition: the sum of phenolics in covered forms is five times higher than that in naked ones and the content of glycine in covered forms is five times higher than in naked grain, with a similar proportion in the content of organic acids, sugars, etc.
 Conclusion. Differences between metabolomic profiles of naked and covered forms have been detected and statistically verified. Accessions with the most optimal nutritional composition have been identified for food purposes and for the development of resistance to biotic and abiotic environmental stresses.

Foresight technology in the integration of education, science and production

One of the most pressing problems in modern conditions for the state is forecasting scientific and technological development with the definition of promising strategic directions and innovative technologies. Such forecasting or scientific foresight is necessary for the successful political, economic and social development of the state. Foresight technology is a tool in choosing long-term priorities for the country’s development, which will help determine strategic research directions and new technologies that contribute to the greatest socio-economic effect and the integration of education, science, and production. The article describes the approach developed by the authors, which is to recognize the priority of the development of regional science, which makes it possible to use the potential of university and industry science directly at the locations of production structures. In this regard, the authors substantiate the need to form a mechanism for interaction between higher education and business, which is based on the “triple helix” model, modified taking into account the specifics of mono-industrial regions. With the help of the mechanism proposed by the authors, based on the adapted model of the “triple helix”, in which the university plays a system-forming role, the problems of single-industry towns can be solved. Itmotivateslocal businesses to create and implement innovative projects using the scientific potential of the regional university.

Priority for research : insights from the INRAE interdisciplinary Scientific Foresight Reflection groups (SFR) Agroecology and Livestock

Priority for research : insights from the INRAE interdisciplinary Scientific Foresight Reflection groups (SFR) Agroecology and Livestock

Identifying the Mode and Impact of Technological Substitutions

Technological substitutions play a major role in the research and development efforts of most modern industries. If timed and provisioned well, successful technology substitutions can provide significant market advantages to firms that have anticipated the demand correctly for emergent technologies. Conversely, failure to commit to new technologies at the right time can have catastrophic consequences, making determining the likely substitution mode of critical strategic importance. With little available data, being able to identify at an early stage whether new technologies are appearing in response to the perceived stagnation in existing technical developments, or as a result of pioneering leaps of scientific foresight, poses a significant challenge. This paper combines bibliometric, pattern recognition, and statistical approaches to develop a technology classification model from historical datasets where literature evidence supports mode labeling. The resulting functional linear regression model demonstrates robust predictive capabilities for the technologies considered, supporting the literature-based substitution framework applied and providing evidence suggesting that substitution modes can be recognized through automated processing of patent data. Furthermore, preliminary evidence suggests that classification can be achieved based on partial time series, implying that future extensions to real-time classifications may be possible for decision-making in the early stages of research and development.