Land Use Change Scenarios Research Articles

Assessment and Dynamic Prediction of Green Space Ecological Service Value in Guangzhou City, China

As an important part of the urban ecosystem, urban green space provides a variety of ecosystem services, including climate regulation, soil conservation, carbon sink and oxygen release, and biodiversity protection. However, existing remote sensing evaluation methods for ecological service value lack the evaluation indicators of ecosystem service value for Guangzhou, China, and the evaluation method depends on the land cover type. Based on remote sensing technology and random forest algorithm, this study addresses these gaps by integrating remote sensing technology with a random forest algorithm to enhance the accuracy and rationality of ESV assessments. Focusing on Guangzhou, China, we improved the ecological service value evaluation system and conducted dynamic predictions based on land-use change scenarios. Our results indicate that the total ESV of Guangzhou’s green space was USD 7.323 billion in 2020, with a projected decline to USD 6.496 billion by 2030, representing a 12.37% reduction due to urbanization-driven land-use changes. This research highlights the noticeable role of green spaces in urban sustainability and provides robust, data-driven insights for policymakers to design more effective green space protection and management strategies. The improved assessment framework offers a novel approach for accurately quantifying urban ecosystem services and predicting future trends.

A Coupled CA Urban Development Model (UDM) and Urban Fabric Generator (UFG) for the Assessment of Climate Hazards on Future Urban Development

Abstract. Cellular Automata (CA) spatial models have become a de facto means by which to simulate future scenarios of land use activity, particularly urban development. Increasingly, such models are being employed within large scale climate impact, adaption and resilience studies to provide future scenarios of land use change and urban development, facilitating the calculation of the economic impact of future climate hazards and development land use adaption options. However, many spatial CA models only provide information on whether land has undergone a transition from one use/activity to a new one. In the case of urban development, they are unable to provide information on the spatial pattern of new development at an intra-cell level of spatial fidelity. However, in many cases such information is important as the spatial impacts of hazards and the adaption and resilience of new urban development will be dependent on the precise spatial configuration of buildings, roads and urban green space. In this paper an Urban Fabric Generator (UFG) is presented that takes the outputs of an Urban Development Model (UDM) and simulates plausible spatial configurations of buildings, roads and urban green space. The utility of the UFG is demonstrated via two flooding case studies, where generated spatial patterns of urban form are used to parameterise a hydrodynamic pluvial flood model that evaluates the impact of future climate driven rainfall on property damage and the utility of infrastructure investment with regards to improving surface water flood resilience.

Evaluating land use and climate change impacts on Ravi river flows using GIS and hydrological modeling approach

The study investigates the interplay of land use dynamics and climate change on the hydrological regime of the Ravi River using a comprehensive approach integrating Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and hydrological modeling at the catchment scale. Employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, simulations were conducted to evaluate the hydrological response of the Ravi River to both current conditions and projected future scenarios of land use and climate change. This study differs from previous ones by simulating future land use and climate scenarios, offering a solid framework for understanding their impact on river flow dynamics. Model calibration and validation were performed for distinct periods (1999–2002 and 2003–2005), yielding satisfactory performance indicators (NSE, R2, PBIAS = 0.85, 0.83, and 10.01 in calibration and 0.87, 0.89, and 7.2 in validation). Through supervised classification techniques on Landsat imagery and TerrSet modeling, current and future land use maps were generated, revealing a notable increase in built-up areas from 1990 to 2020 and projections indicating further expansion by 31.7% from 2020 to 2100. Climate change projections under different socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) were derived for precipitation and temperature, with statistical downscaling applied using the CMhyd model. Results suggest substantial increases in precipitation (10.9 − 14.9%) and temperature (12.2 − 15.9%) across the SSP scenarios by the end of the century. Two scenarios, considering future climate conditions with current and future land use patterns, were analyzed to understand their combined impact on hydrological responses. In both scenarios, inflows to the Ravi River are projected to rise significantly (19.4 − 28.4%) from 2016 to 2100, indicating a considerable alteration in seasonal flow patterns. Additionally, historical data indicate a concerning trend of annual groundwater depth decline (0.8 m/year) from 1996 to 2020, attributed to land use and climate changes. The findings underscore the urgency for planners and managers to incorporate climate and land cover considerations into their strategies, given the potential implications for water resource management and environmental sustainability.

Leveraging atmospheric moisture recycling in Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries for irrigation and afforestation planning

Effective irrigation planning is crucial for sustainable agricultural development and ecosystem restoration projects in arid regions. With respect to ambitious greening initiatives, Saudi Arabia is establishing a national strategy toward a more sustainable and eco-friendly future not only for itself but also for the broader Middle East region. Thus, comprehensively understanding the water cycle in the region is essential to identify the most suitable target locations for afforestation and reforestation while considering the potential role of irrigation. Herein, in addition to traditional pedoclimatic factors, we introduce a complementary consideration—“irrigation recycling.” Building on the well-established concept of atmospheric moisture recycling and taking advantage from an atmospheric trajectory dataset, we track the path of evaporated water from current or potential irrigated sites to the location where the evaporated water eventually falls as precipitation. Our analysis offers two key benefits. First, it helps pinpoint the regions in which and the periods during which water recycling is maximum within the country, aiding more precise calculations of the investment return value for irrigation infrastructures. Second, it helps identify the land-use change patterns that contribute to international efforts such as drought mitigation in East Africa as an example. We found that one-third of the actual precipitation in the current Saudi irrigated sites originated from evapotranspiration over land, mainly from Saudi Arabia and surrounding countries. Interestingly, most of the evapotranspiration from these irrigated sites will eventually fall somewhere over land (primarily in Iran). Controlling the seasonality and spatial distribution of the future irrigation expansion will allow controlling the atmospheric moisture recirculation in Saudi Arabia and nearby drought-prone regions such as Eastern Africa. The outcomes of this study will be the subject of future integrated assessments to account for the climatic feedbacks of the land-use change scenarios. At present, they provide crucial insights to support the decision-making process surrounding the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives. Further, the presented methodology offers a pragmatic framework that can be applied to similar greening projects for other regions, making it a viable and valuable approach for global sustainability programs.

Climate and Land Use Changes Impact the Future of European Amphibian Functional Diversity

Climate and land use changes drive shifts in species distributions, causing variations in species richness. Yet the influence of shifts in species distributions on functional diversity at broad spatial scales remains uncertain. Here, we explored the potential effect of climate and land use changes on the functional diversity of European amphibian assemblages from the present to 2050, along with their effect on species richness. We performed species distribution modelling using a scenario of climate and land use change to estimate current and future potential distributions of 73 species. We estimated functional diversity using morphological and ecological functional traits. Our results highlight the intricate effects of climate and land use changes on taxonomic and functional diversity of amphibians. A climate-induced northward expansion of amphibians is anticipated, with temperature, precipitation, and forest cover prominently shaping future assemblages. Species expected to have shrinking ranges (n = 35) tend to mature sexually at a later age, produce fewer offspring per reproductive event, and live at higher maximum altitudes compared to species expected to expand (n = 38). Furthermore, trait composition changes are expected to exceed predictions based solely on species richness. These changes will vary geographically, with northern regions likely experiencing substantial increases in functional richness and functional redundancy, i.e., the coexistence of species with similar functional roles. Our findings underscore that functional diversity changes might serve as an early warning signal to assess human impacts on biodiversity.

A multiclass logistic regression, Markov chain, and cellular automata integration for modelling urban land use change

Cellular Automata (CA) models employ simple transition rules and neighbourhood interactions to determine cells' evolution. Integrating CA with other algorithms is often essential in order to obtain necessary statistical inferences. The integration of Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) and Markov chain (MC) with CA forms common CA integrations. For convenience, urban land use change is often modelled as a binary process (e,g. ‘undeveloped land’ and ‘developed land’), whereas in the real world urban land use change phenomenon could go beyond two processes (e. g. ‘undeveloped land’, ‘sparsely developed land’, ‘semi-highly developed land’, ‘highly developed land’, ‘very highly developed land’, etc.). The BLR-MC-CA hybrid model yields a binary outcome. In order to extend the BLR-MC-CA hybrid model to multivariate problems, we introduce a novel hybrid model, by simply replacing the BLR with the new Multiclass Logistic Regression (MLR) to obtain the new MLR-MC-CA hybrid model. Satellite remote sensing imageries acquired in 1984, 2000, and 2020 are used as input data. Four scenarios of urban land use change are modelled: ‘nonurban region’, ‘highest urban region’, ‘high urban region’, and ‘medium urban region’. These four scenarios are modelled with twelve urban land use drivers: distance to water body, distance to residential areas, distance to industrial and commercial areas, distance to major roads, distance to railway, distance to Lagos Island, distance to international seaport, distance to University of Lagos, income potential, population potential, distance to international airport, and distance to Lagos State University. Urban transitions 1984–2000 and 2000–2020 are used to simulate the urban states in 2000 and 2020 respectively; as well as to obtain the urban state in 2060. The validation of the experiment is largely based on McNemar's test and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. The results of the experiment indicate significant fit between the reference and the predicted data.

Estimating terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage change in the YREB caused by land-use change under SSP-RCPs scenarios

Terrestrial ecosystems, as an essential carbon sink of atmospheric CO2, play an important role in balancing the global carbon cycle. Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) are the major factors in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) change. However, they are not yet sure how future LUCCs would affect the TECS in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to meet China's carbon-neutral goal. We simulated eight land-use change scenarios and used these to estimate the YREB's TECS and its 2020–2060 variation by coupling the spatially explicit projections of LUCCs under the latest IPCC, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with datasets on terrestrial ecosystem carbon density dataset. Results show that: 1) the total TECS of the YREB in 2020 is ∼28.07 Gt. Spatially, TECS in the YREB focused on Sichuan and Yunnan (∼13.35 Gt), which plays a crucial role in balancing the regional carbon cycle; its losses are in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hunan provinces; Yunnan is the potential region with future carbon sink enhancement in the YREB. 2) Compared to the TECS change under eight land-use scenarios, the low-carbon and sustainable development pathways are the priority chosen by humans. 3) The replacement of vast forest land with cropland and urban expansion are the key factor of TECS change in the YREB. 4) Land management policies (i.e., Cultivated land requisition-compensation balance) should balance the conflicts between food self-sufficiency and the carbon sink rather than only the dynamic balance in quantity. Our study aims to provide data support for the government in planning future development pathways and refining carbon emission reduction strategies to assist in carbon trading and compensation and achieve the YREB's dual-carbon goal.

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage.

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem's carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Modelling the potential of land use change to mitigate the impacts of climate change on future drought in the Western Cape, South Africa

Several studies have shown that climate change may enhance the severity of droughts over the Western Cape (South Africa) in the future, but there is a dearth of information on how to reduce the impacts of climate change on water yields. This study investigates the extent to which land-use changes can reduce the projected impacts of climate change on hydrological droughts in the Western Cape catchments. For the study, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT +) model was calibrated and evaluated over several river catchments, and the climate simulation dataset from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) was bias-corrected. Using the bias-corrected climate data as a forcing, the SWAT + was used to project the impacts of future climate change on water yield in the catchments and to quantify the sensitivity of the projection to four feasible land-use change scenarios in the catchments. The land-use scenarios are the spread of forest (FOMI), the restoration of shrubland (SHRB), the expansion of cropland (CRDY), and the restoration of grassland (GRSL).The model evaluation shows a good agreement between the simulated and observed monthly streamflows at four stations, and the bias correction of the CORDEX dataset improved the hydrological simulations. The climate change projection features an increase in temperature and potential evaporation, but a decrease in precipitation and all the hydrological variables. The drying occurs across the Western Cape, with the magnitude increasing with higher global warming levels (GWLs). The land-use changes alter these climate change impacts through changes in the hydrological water balance. FOMI increases streamflow and decreases runoff, while SHRB decreases streamflow and runoff. The influence of CRDY and GRSL are more complex. However, all the impacts of land-use changes are negligible compared to the impacts of climate change. Hence, land-use changes in the Western Cape may not be the most efficient strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on hydrological droughts over the region. The results of the study have application towards improving water security in the Western Cape river catchments.

Tracking Land-use Trajectory and Other Potential Drivers to Uncover the Dynamics of Carbon Stocks of Terrestrial Ecosystem in the Songnen Plain

Land-use change is an important factor affecting terrestrial carbon balance, and it is crucial to explore the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to land-use change, especially in the Songnen Plain, which faces a fierce conflict between the rapid growth of production activities and ecosystem degradation. In this study, we measured soil organic carbon and vegetation biocarbon stocks in the Songnen Plain based on IPCC-recommended methodologies, and explored the characteristics of carbon stock changes in land-use trajectories, land-use drivers, and specific land-use change scenarios (cropland cultivation, returning cropland to forests, the expansion of land for construction, deforestation, greening, and land degradation). The results showed that soil organic carbon stock in the Songnen Plain decreased by 1.63 × 105 t, and vegetation biocarbon stock increased by 2.10 × 107 t from 2005 to 2020. Human factors and natural factors jointly contributed to the land-use change, but the extent of the role of human factors was greater than that of natural factors. The increase in land-use trajectory led to the decrease in soil organic carbon stock and the increase in vegetation biocarbon stock. There was no difference in the effects of human-induced and natural-induced land-use changes on vegetation biocarbon stocks, but the effects on soil organic carbon stocks were diametrically opposite, increasing by 43.27 t/km2 and decreasing by 182.02 t/km2, respectively. The reclamation of arable land, returning cropland to forests, and greening led to a net increase in terrestrial carbon stocks (+813,291.84 t), whereas land degradation, deforestation, and land-use expansion led to a decrease in terrestrial carbon stocks (−460,710.2 t). The results of this study can provide a reference for the adjustment of land-use structure and the increase in terrestrial carbon stock in the Songnen Plain.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change.

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

Future ecosystem service provision under land-use change scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Continued pressure and transformation of land-use by humans are key drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) loss. To determine the sustainability of possible future land-use practices, it is important to anticipate likely future changes to biodiversity and ES. This can help stakeholders and decision-makers to understand and assess the viability of current development policies and design alternative future pathways. Focusing on a biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Ethiopia, we considered four future land-use scenarios (namely: ‘Gain over grain’, ‘Coffee and conservation’, ‘Mining green gold’ and ‘Food first’ scenarios) that were developed in an earlier project via participatory scenario planning. We modelled and mapped the spatial distribution of six ES (erosion control, carbon storage, coffee production, crop production, livestock feed, and woody-plant richness) for the current landscape and the four scenarios. Our results show that potential ES changes differed strongly across the scenarios. Changes were strongest for land-use scenarios involving large-scale agricultural intensification; and changes were not uniformly distributed across the landscape. Smallholder farmers specializing on cash crops (‘Gain over grain’ scenario) would likely cause little change to ES generation, but major losses in ES would result from expanding either food or coffee production (‘Mining green gold’ and ‘Food first’). Finally, the ‘Coffee and conservation’ scenario appears to be the most sustainable scenario because it would secure diverse ES for the long term. Our findings provide valuable input for decision-makers and stakeholders and could help to identify sustainable land-use options.

Reconciling ice core CO2 and land-use change following New World-Old World contact

Ice core records of carbon dioxide (CO2) throughout the last 2000 years provide context for the unprecedented anthropogenic rise in atmospheric CO2 and insights into global carbon cycle dynamics. Yet the atmospheric history of CO2 remains uncertain in some time intervals. Here we present measurements of CO2 and methane (CH4) in the Skytrain ice core from 1450 to 1700 CE. Results suggest a sudden decrease in CO2 around 1610 CE in one widely used record may be an artefact of a small number of anomalously low values. Our analysis supports a more gradual decrease in CO2 of 0.5 ppm per decade from 1516 to 1670 CE, with an inferred land carbon sink of 2.6 PgC per decade. This corroborates modelled scenarios of large-scale reorganisation of land use in the Americas following New World-Old World contact, whereas a rapid decrease in CO2 at 1610 CE is incompatible with even the most extreme land-use change scenarios.

What can be learned from using participatory landscape scenarios in Rio Doce State Park, Brazil?

ContextThe goal of this work is to describe and explain the conditions that trigger, enable or prevent the implementation of preferred land uses by local communities.ObjectiveThe questions this paper addresses are as follows: Is there a set of preferred scenarios for land use change? What triggers, enables and prevents the implementation of preferred land uses? What did we learn by using participatory landscape scenarios?MethodsIn order to answer the research questions, we synthesize knowledge from a long-term case study in the buffer zone of the Rio Doce State Park in Brazil by (1) Developing participatory landscape scenarios and spatially explicit models for exploring desirable futures and associated land uses, as seen by local communities; (2) Explaining the conditions that trigger, enable or prevent the implementation of preferred landscape scenarios; and (3) Synthesizing knowledge on research and practice for working towards preferred land use changes.ResultsPreferred scenarios for land use change are agroforestry, animal husbandry, tourism and conservation. Although there is biophysical potential and funding available through multiple social and environmental programs, the Rio Doce State Park’s institutional setting is confusing. Although preferred land use scenarios will likely be implemented, participatory landscape approaches require a new, strategic role and leadership by regional institutions. Universities need to bring in social theories and institutional analysis to educate a new generation of landscape stewards.ConclusionWe highlight the role of more responsive social agents and their representative institutions, including the changing role of university-based research and practice for working towards sustainable landscape outcomes.

Effect of watershed characteristics on river flow for the case of two watersheds, Megech and Gumaro, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Land degradation is a series of problems in Ethiopia’s highlands, particularly in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin reflected in the form of soil erosion and reduce soil fertility from time to time. The effect of watershed characteristics on the river flow of those watersheds was evaluated by distributing a physically based hydrological model known as the soil and water assessment tool model. The model was calibrated for the river flow from 1992 to 2006 and validated for the period from 2007 to 2014. The performance of the model was evaluated based on performance rating criteria, coefficient of determination, and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency on monthly based value, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient was greater than 0.6 and 0.5 for all scenarios on both watersheds, respectively. The land-use land-cover change scenario, the climate characteristics, and the slope change scenario was developed, from those analyses, it was found that has been a substantial decrease or increase in forest land, shrubland, grassland, and expansion of agricultural land. The mean annual streamflow of 2010 LULC decreased by 1.44% for 2010 from 2003 LULC and 5.23% for 2018 from 2010. Because of reduced cultivated land from 2010 up to 2018 and increased grassland and plantation in the Megech watershed and 2010 LULC decreased by 0.9% for 2010 from 2003 LULC and 2.04% in 2018 from 2010. This distributed physically based hydrological model has been applied for the evaluation of physical catchment characteristics with significant differences which was Cropland for Megech and Gumaro watersheds which were 67.28% and 61.5%, respectively, for the 2003 LULC, 64.94% Megech, and 58.89% for Gumaro watershed for 2010LULC and 51.95% for Megech and 42.12% for Gumaro watershed, similarly, Eutric Cambisols were covering large areas for both watersheds.

Predicting water ecosystem services under prospective climate and land-use change scenarios in typical watersheds distributed across China

Water-related ecosystem services (WES) critical to anthropogenic-related water security are being severely degraded, primarily due to climate and land-use change. Clarifying future trends in WES (i.e., water yield and water purification services) will contribute to water resource sustainability. However, most existing studies are single case studies and rarely consider the combined impacts of climate change and land-use change on ecosystem services, resulting in patterns that cannot be adequately summarized. In this study, the “Annual Water Yield” module of the InVEST model was used to estimate water yield and the “Nutrient Delivery Ratio” module was used to analyze water purification services. In order to compare the impacts of different natural conditions and geographic locations on water ecosystem services, 17 typical watersheds throughout China were selected as study areas. Coupled scenarios were also considered when setting climate and land-use scenarios to predict prospective (2020–2100) evolutionary trends in WES. The response of WES under different scenarios was also assessed. Results show that climate change is more likely to affect water yield services than water purification services. The impact of land use on water purification services is more pronounced than its impact on water yield services. Climate change contributed > 90 % to water yields in 15 out of the 17 watersheds, contributed 79.4 % in the Hei River watershed, while only contributing 11.2 % in the Yarkant River watershed. The influence of climate change on total nitrogen (TN) output in eight of the watersheds was greater than that of land-use change, especially in the Min River and Mintuo River watersheds, for which the contribution was > 95 %. Furthermore, water purification services in nine of the watersheds were more affected by land-use change, especially in the Dongting Lake and Hei River watersheds, for which the contribution was > 95 %. The aim of this study is to assist in the planning of sound water resource measures while developing sustainable management strategies to help relevant water resource sectors cope with prospective risks and challenges.

Impact of Land-Use Changes on Climate Change Mitigation Goals: The Case of Lithuania

The land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector is receiving increasing attention in climate change mitigation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offsetting. The sector itself and measures applied to mobilize this sector in order to tackle climate change are dominant in nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement as well as in national strategies, as in the case of Lithuania. Lithuania has set the goal of becoming a carbon-neutral country in 2050, reducing GHGs by 80% compared to 1990 and offsetting the remaining 20% through the LULUCF sector. Therefore, this paper aims at analyzing historical land-use changes in 1990–2021, as reported for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat, and LULUCF’s potential to achieve climate change mitigation goals, taking into account different land-use change scenarios (business as usual, forest development, forest development + additional measures and forest land 40% + additional measures) for 2030 and 2050 in Lithuania. The scenarios are based on historical and potential future policy-based land-use changes. Projections of GHG emissions/removals for different scenarios are prepared according to the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that land-use changes over the period 1990–2021 remained rather stable, with some increases in forest area and grassland at the expense of cropland. The whole LULUCF sector acted as a carbon sink in most cases, forests being a key category for removal. However, reaching climate neutrality in 2050 might be challenging, as the goal to offset 20% of remaining GHG emission compared to 1990 through LULUCF would not be met in any of the scenarios analyzed, even the scenario of maximal forest-area development and additional measures. Considering the high historical GHG-removal fluctuations and the uncertainties of the sector itself, caution should be taken when relying on LULUCF’s potential to reach the set goals.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot

Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (MAPs) play a critical role in providing ecosystem services through their provision of herbal remedies, food and natural skin care products, their integration into local economies, and maintaining pollinators’ diversity and populations and ecosystem functioning. Mountainous regions, such as Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (CVNP), represent unique reservoirs of endemic MAP diversity that require conservation prioritisation. This study aims to provide insights into the sustainable management of MAPs, contributing to efforts to protect Mediterranean biodiversity amid the dual challenges of climate and land-use change, using a suite of macroecological modelling techniques. Following a Species Distribution Modelling framework, we investigated the vulnerability of endemic and non-endemic MAPs to climate and land-use changes. We examined the potential shifts in MAP diversity, distribution, and conservation hotspots within the CVNP. Our results revealed species-specific responses, with endemic taxa facing severe range contractions and non-endemic taxa initially expanding but eventually declining, particularly under land-use change scenarios. Local biodiversity hotspots are projected to shift altitudinally, with considerable area losses in the coming decades and elevated species turnover predicted throughout the CVNP, leading to biotic homogenization. Climate and land-use changes jointly threaten MAP diversity, calling for adaptive conservation strategies, thus highlighting the importance of proactive measures, such as awareness raising, establishing plant micro-reserves, assisted translocation, and promoting sustainable harvesting to protect these species within the CVNP. Our study offers vital insights for managing biodiversity hotspots amid global change pressures, stressing the need to integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities shrink the range and dispersal of an endangered primate in Sichuan Province, China

The golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) is a rare and endemic species in China. The population of golden snub-nosed monkeys in Sichuan Province has an isolated genetic status, large population size, and low genetic diversity, making it highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Our study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of climate and land-use changes on the distribution and dispersal paths of the species in Sichuan Province. We used three general circulation models (GCMs), three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and three land-use change scenarios suitable for China to predict the potential distributions of the golden snub-nosed monkey in the current and 2070s using the MaxEnt model. The dispersal paths were identified by the circuit theory. Our results suggested that the habitats of the golden snub-nosed monkey were reduced under all three GCM scenarios. The suitable habitats for the golden snub-nosed monkey would be reduced by 82.67%, 82.47%, and 75.17% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the currently suitable habitat area. Additionally, we found that the density of future dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys would decrease, and the dispersal resistance would increase. Therefore, relevant wildlife protection agencies should prioritize the climatically suitable distributions and key dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys to improve their conservation. We identified key areas for habitat preservation and increased habitat connectivity under climate change, which could serve as a reference for future adaptation strategies.