Climate and Land Use Changes Impact the Future of European Amphibian Functional Diversity

Abstract

Climate and land use changes drive shifts in species distributions, causing variations in species richness. Yet the influence of shifts in species distributions on functional diversity at broad spatial scales remains uncertain. Here, we explored the potential effect of climate and land use changes on the functional diversity of European amphibian assemblages from the present to 2050, along with their effect on species richness. We performed species distribution modelling using a scenario of climate and land use change to estimate current and future potential distributions of 73 species. We estimated functional diversity using morphological and ecological functional traits. Our results highlight the intricate effects of climate and land use changes on taxonomic and functional diversity of amphibians. A climate-induced northward expansion of amphibians is anticipated, with temperature, precipitation, and forest cover prominently shaping future assemblages. Species expected to have shrinking ranges (n = 35) tend to mature sexually at a later age, produce fewer offspring per reproductive event, and live at higher maximum altitudes compared to species expected to expand (n = 38). Furthermore, trait composition changes are expected to exceed predictions based solely on species richness. These changes will vary geographically, with northern regions likely experiencing substantial increases in functional richness and functional redundancy, i.e., the coexistence of species with similar functional roles. Our findings underscore that functional diversity changes might serve as an early warning signal to assess human impacts on biodiversity.