Scenarios In Colombia Research Articles

RETRACTION NOTICE: Energy Prospective Model For The Forecast of Future Scenarios in Colombia

Retraction note: Hernández Bueno, N. J. (2023). Energy Prospective Model For The Forecast of Future Scenarios in Colombia. TECHNO REVIEW. International Technology, Science and Society Review Revista Internacional De Tecnología, Ciencia Y Sociedad, 15(1), 2–14. https://doi.org/10.37467/revtechno.v14.4835 The Editorial Office of Eurasia Academic Publishing Group has retracted this article. An investigation carried out by our Research Integrity Department has found a group of articles, among which this one is found, that are not within the thematic scope of the journal. We believe that the editorial process was manipulated and, furthermore, acceptance decisions were made under possibly inappropriate peer review.

Equity, diversity, and inclusion in the construction of journalistic and training agendas for peace in Colombia

Since their early stages, developing narratives has been characteristic of human beings, allowing them to create community and generate cohesion—one that has endured for thousands of years is “peace”. However, in some territories, excessive ambition, fear imposed by force, and power over laws have proliferated. In the case of Colombia, war as an industry empowers different sides that are either endorsed or rendered invisible in the narratives of traditional mass media. Media content has always favored war journalism and neglected two vital approaches: peace journalism (PP) and university journalism. This study’s relevance lies in its use of big data, automated lexicometry, and statistical discourse analysis to understand how university journalism built a peace journalism agenda, taking the narrative of the Peace Agreement in Colombia as a framework of observation, with a clear result in the importance of equity, diversity, and equality in a peaceful transition scenario in Colombia. The study reveals that university journalism has a diverse narrative approach, focusing on presenting the social problems and inequities, the lack of political capacities within communities, the need for a transitional approach toward peace, and the pursuit of truth. The study used mixed research techniques where students narrated their individual perspectives that informed a collective view by integrating the voices of those who suffer the conflict daily. Simultaneously, they showed how academia, from its training function, develops exercises that may compromise the integrity of the axiological values of communication and journalism. The main implication of our study suggests the need to strengthen pedagogical processes of peace in the curriculum and training that enable the next generation of journalists in the country to potentially shift their discourse toward peace journalism and divergent solutions, as opposed to those proposed by traditional media. In conclusion, including youth opinions that were supported by experts on the process introduced an element of community empowerment and recognition of victims within the context and social structure of the Colombian conflict.

Sustainability assessment of the solar energy supply chain in Colombia

Solar-generated energy supply has been applied as a solution to address the increasing global population, global warming challenges, and the search for alternative sources of renewable and clean energy supply. Regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean have a significant rural population that lacks access to electricity, impeding their development, and increasing unemployment rates. This paper presents a system dynamics model (SD) for assessing the implementation of a solar energy supply chain (SESC), combining the analysis with the national industry's development for the manufacture of solar modules used in the implementation of solar farms and individual solution projects, especially in the non-interconnected zones of Colombia. This case study examines three scenarios in Colombia: national government-implemented solar farm projects; development of national supply chain implementation; and development of the solar energy market. These scenarios are evaluated using performance indicators for supply chain variables, including coverage, diversification, emissions, and job creation. The results indicate that implementing a supply chain and developing solar module production in Colombia can positively impact the proposed indicators, resulting in improvements of 5.9% in coverage, 6.3% in diversification, 6.7% in emission reductions, and 13% in job creation.

Survival Outcomes in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in a Cancer Center in Medellin - Colombia

Introduction: survival outcomes of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) reported in the literature may not apply to patients in a real-life scenario in Colombia. This study aims to describe these in a cohort of patients with NSCLC treated at Clínica de Oncología Astorga, in Medellín, Colombia. Methods: this is an observational study with survival analysis. Patients with advanced NSCLC established from January 1/2019 treated at the Institution were included. Medical records were analyzed retrospectively. Kaplan Meier method was used to estimate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). To compare the survival distributions log-rank test was performed. Results: fifty-two patients were included. Median age was 70.1 years (IQR:64.6-77.2). Adenocarcinoma in 57.7%. First-line treatment was chemotherapy (48.1%), immunotherapy (40.4%), and anti-ALK/EGFR tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (TKI) (9.6%). One patient was enrolled in a clinical trial. Median PFS and OS for the entire cohort were 6.0 months (95%CI:4.8-7.1) and 11 months (95%CI:6.7-15.3), respectively. Median OS for performance-status (PS) 1-2 was 14.5 months (95%CI:7.3-21.7) and 4.7 months (95%CI:2.7-6.7) for PS 2-4 (P=0.002). Median PFS for chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and TKI were 3.3 months (95%CI:0.8-5.8), 9.9 months (95%CI:4.6-15.2), and not reached, respectively (P<0.001). Median OS for chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and TKI were 6.0 months (95%CI:1.9-10.0), 9.9 months (95%CI:8.1-11.8), and not reached, respectively (P=0.080). Conclusion: clinical outcomes in Real-World-Setting in advanced NSCLC in Colombia, a Low-Middle-Income-Country, can better inform patients and providers in regards to setting-specific survival expectations. Advanced disease with poor PS and lack of access to state-of-art therapy are challenges yet to be addressed.

Engaged Engineering: A Preliminary Review of University Practices on Engineering and Society in Colombia

Engineering is considered a discipline that favors the practical application of theory at the level of technoscience through interaction with other areas of knowledge. It is expected to transform the living conditions of society by providing solutions to complex problems that affect it. However, depending on the approach, this discipline can be used to dominate social sectors by controlling resources, means of production, and knowledge or to empower communities from a critical transformative perspective. Based on a series of educational and professional practice scenarios in Colombia, this article presents a review of some alternatives for a conscious praxis that encourages the development of a culture of peace. This practice is referred to as Engaged Engineering. Subsequently, we briefly explore the existing networks and articulations at the national level, and then, through a literature review, we describe and classify various EE initiatives in Colombia by institution, region, theme, and category. Finally, we present a discussion and some conclusions aimed at developing a preliminary understanding of how EE has materialized in the country and defining its main challenges and opportunities.

Changes in the potential distribution of the guava fruit fly Anastrepha striata (Diptera, Tephritidae) under current and possible future climate scenarios in Colombia.

Climate change has affected the geographical distributions of most species worldwide; in particular, insects of economic importance inhabiting tropical regions have been impacted. Current and future predictions of change in geographic distribution are frequently included in species distribution models (SDMs). The potential spatial distributions of the fruit fly Anastrepha striata Schiner, the main species of agricultural importance in guava crops, under current and possible future scenarios in Colombia were modeled, and the establishment risk was assessed for each guava-producing municipality in the country. SDMs were developed using 221 geographical records in conjunction with nine scenopoetic variables. The model for current climate conditions indicated an extensive suitable area for the establishment of A. striata in the Andean region, smaller areas in the Caribbean and Pacific, and almost no areas in the Orinoquia and Amazonian regions. A brief discussion regarding the area's suitability for the fly is offered. According to the results, altitude is one of the main factors that direct the distribution of A. striata in the tropics. The Colombian guava-producing municipalities were classified according to the degree of vulnerability to fly establishment as follows: 42 were high risk, 16 were intermediate risk, and 17 were low risk. The implementation of future integrated management plans must include optimal spatial data and must consider environmental aspects, such as those suggested by the models presented here. Control decisions should aim to mitigate the positive relationship between global warming and the increase in the dispersal area of the fruit fly.

Population dynamics of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climatic scenarios in Colombia.

Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale are main factors to which insects and plants adapt through natural selection, although periodic outbreaks in insect populations may occur in areas where they had not been previously reported, a phenomenon considered as a consequence of global warming. In this study, we estimate the distribution of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climate scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60 and rcp85.) Insects were collected weekly in four sugarcane fields from four different towns in the department of Caldas (Colombia) during 2017, and also in several sugarcane fields in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) between 2010 and 2017. The influence of climatic variables on different agro-ecological zones of the CRV sugarcane fields was defined by climatic data between 2010 and 2017 (maximum and minimum daily temperatures, and accumulated precipitation). The estimate of an optimal niche for Diatraea spp. includes temperatures between 20°C and 23°C, accumulated annual rainfall between 1200 and 1500 mm, dry months with precipitations below 50 mm, slopes of less than 0.05 degrees, crop heterogeneity with an index of 0.2 and primary production values of 1.0. Data suggests Diatraea population is considerably influenced by adverse climate change effects, under the premise of an increase in local and global temperatures, reducing its population niches as well as the number of individuals.

An Agent-Based Crop Model Framework for Heterogeneous Soils

Climate change and the efficient use of freshwater for irrigation pose a challenge for sustainable agriculture. Traditionally, the prediction of agricultural production is carried out through crop-growth models and historical records of the climatic variables. However, one of the main flaws of these models is that they do not consider the variability of the soil throughout the cultivation area. In addition, with the availability of new information sources (i.e., aerial or satellite images) and low-cost meteorological stations, it is convenient that the models incorporate prediction capabilities to enhance the representation of production scenarios. In this work, an agent-based model (ABM) that considers the soil heterogeneity and water exchanges is proposed. Soil heterogeneity is associated to the combination of individual behaviours of uniform portions of land (agents), while water fluxes are related to the topography. Each agent is characterized by an individual dynamic model, which describes the local crop growth. Moreover, this model considers positive and negative effects of water level, i.e., drought and waterlogging, on the biomass production. The development of the global ABM is oriented to the future use of control strategies and optimal irrigation policies. The model is built bottom-up starting with the definition of agents, and the Python environment Mesa is chosen for the implementation. The validation is carried out using three topographic scenarios in Colombia. Results of potential production cases are discussed, and some practical recommendations on the implementation are presented.

A legal obligation under international law to guarantee access to abortion services in contexts of armed conflict? An analysis of the case of Colombia

AbstractThis article discusses the existence of an international obligation for the State of Colombia to guarantee access to abortion services for women and girls who are victims of conflict-related sexual violence in the context of the Colombian armed conflict. By examining international humanitarian law rules from an international human rights law lens, it sets out the interdependence between both frameworks from reproductive health and human rights perspectives. Furthermore, the article provides considerations on the recognition and redress of these violations in the transitional justice scenario in Colombia.

Experience on implementing and consolidating the Best practice guidelines of the Registered Nurses’ Association of Ontario (RNAO) in clinical and academic scenarios in Colombia

This paper describes the results of the implementation, consolidation and future projection of the Best Practice Guidelines of the Registered Nurses’ Association of Ontario (RNAO) in clinical and academic scenarios in Santander, Colombia. The tool proposed by the RNAO was used for the implementation of the guidelines in both clinical and academic settings. Preliminary results on the implementation of the guidelines are presented in this paper. In the clinical setting, the implementation of the guidelines has made it possible to start the process of standardising care across the institution, with systematic follow-up based on indicators. This has allowed decision-making and visualisation of the quality of nursing care provided by nurses in their different roles. In the academic scenario, implementing the guidelines has strengthened teaching and research functions, and, to a lesser extent, continuing education and social projection processes. In the consolidation phase, advances were achieved in 10 components, relevant to teachers, students, and practice scenarios of public/private health institutions, users (patients/caregivers), health personnel and other nursing programmes at a national and international level. Implementing the clinical practice guidelines has reduced the gap between the clinical and the academic scenarios, where collaborative and inter-institutional work is enhanced to obtain better patient outcomes, based on the available evidence.

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

Answering the right questions. Addressing biodiversity conservation in post-conflict Colombia

The post-conflict scenario in Colombia poses several environmental urgencies, making it necessary to identify and prioritize new challenges for biodiversity conservation and ecosystems management. It is critical to understand how government agencies, NGOs, and academics perceive these challenges, as they all contribute to fundamental decision-making on environmental issues. To achieve this objective we formulated fifty-two research questions that were edited, evaluated, and prioritized by members of each group in a dedicated workshop. Ten of these questions were identified as top priorities and shared with twenty additional members of each group. Perceptions and rankings of the ten priority questions were then compared among groups, but no statistical difference was found. These results highlight that broadly similar goals for biodiversity conservation are shared by all key decision makers in post-conflict Colombia. Namely, conservation through sustainable management practices and development of local economies previously affected by the conflict. The process of developing and prioritizing these research questions helped to identify key drivers of biodiversity loss and create a research agenda to mitigate environmental impacts in post-conflict Colombia.

Mangroves of Colombia revisited in an era of open data, global changes, and socio-political transition: Homage to Heliodoro Sánchez-Páez

Colombia es el único país suramericano con costas tanto en el Océano Pacífico como el Mar Caribe, por lo cual exhibe grandes contrastes para los manglares en términos de tipos de climas y geoformas costeras. Por ejemplo, los manglares son extensos a lo largo de la costa del Pacífico debido a la alta precipitación anual y a la presencia de grandes deltas. Estos manglares son el hábitat de la única especie endémica del Neotrópico (Pelliciera rhizophorae), también clasificada como amenazada. En contraste, los manglares se distribuyen de forma discontinua a lo largo de la costa Caribe, siendo extensos en los tres deltas más grandes y en unas pocas lagunas costeras. Además, los manglares enanos y de baja estatura están presentes en las zonas áridas de la costa norte, bañadas por quebradas y ríos estacionales. En estudios recientes se resalta la importancia global de los manglares de Colombia en términos de su extensión, sus bajas tasas de deforestación (particularmente en la costa Pacífica) y sus grandes reservas de carbono. Sin embargo, la mayor parte de lo que actualmente sabemos de la biogeografía de los manglares colombianos se ha obtenido a partir del análisis de estudios independientes llevados a cabo en diferentes sitios y años. La voluminosa información recolectada por Heliodoro Sánchez-Páez y sus colaboradores en el mayor inventario nacional de manglares (PMC: Proyecto Manglares de Colombia, Ministerio del Medio Ambiente) recopilado a mediados de la década de 1990, ofrece una oportunidad para, en combinación con datos abiertos, revisar hipótesis biogeográficas (por ejemplo, que la alta precipitación promueve el valor de importancia del mangle rojo) y explorar patrones macroecológicos. En homenaje a Heliodoro Sánchez-Páez (fallecido en el 2017), se presenta a la comunidad la base de datos HELIO_SP.CO v.1, derivada de este inventario forestal, como una plataforma para los estudios macroecológicos y línea de base para futuras evaluaciones del impacto del cambio climático y en los usod de la tierra. Se revisaron las contribuciones del PMC y se exploraron patrones geográficos generales utilizando la base de datos HELIO_SP.CO v.1. En este sentido, se describió el recambio de las dos especies dominantes a lo largo del gradiente de precipitación observado desde Nariño hasta La Guajira. Se utilizaron datos rasterizados de WorldClim 2 para explorar los espacios de precipitación y temperatura donde las especies fueron registradas. Por último, se revisó brevemente el progreso de las “ciencias del manglar” desde 1997 y se detectaron algunos de los desafíos relacionados con el cambio climático y las situaciones posteriores al acuerdo de paz en Colombia. © 2019. Acad. Colomb. Cienc. Ex. Fis. Nat.

Mathematical modelling of some poliomyelitis vaccination and migration scenarios in Colombia

The Poliomyelitis is an acute infection that has not eradicated worldwide. There are two types of vaccines for prevention: the live attenuated virus (OPV) and the inactivated polio virus (IPV). In Colombia, the poliomyelitis eradication strategy has been implemented, changing the OPV for the IPV, following the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper presents a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the infection in a population where the two types of vaccines are implemented. The population is divided into two age groups, considering migratory effects between them, the interactions are described using Michaelis-Menten functions. Different vaccination scenarios are simulated and analysed in order to establish the convenience of replacing OPV vaccination with IPV.

Sizing of renewable energy sources to support resilience in distribution networks

Microgrids may help researchers to analyze the performance of scaled electrical systems. The paper uses Unigrid to maximize the resilience of the unbalanced distributions network through optimal sizing and location of renewable energy sources. Unigrid is a scaled-down standard IEEE 13 microgrid built to analyze the behavior of electrical systems. The research methodology consist in evaluating the penetration of non-conventional renewable energy generation to the distribution network in different nodes and different injected power values. The first scenario is the connection of the microgrid with the power system of Providencia (Colombia), a low inertia network; the second scenario is the connection with La Guajira network, a high inertia included in the National Interconnected System (NIS). The connection of generators with non-conventional sources allowed to identify the percentage of non-conventional penetration sources of the modified IEEE 13 network in two scenarios in Colombia. The results lead that the candidate nodes to connect renewable sources are 632 and 671. In conclusion, the low inertia systems require a higher penetration than the high inertia system.

Cancelación de procedimientos electivos y su relación con la valoración preanestésica


 Introducción: la cancelación de los procedimientos quirúrgicos obedece en ocasiones a una valoración preanestésica incompleta. En la actualidad no se conocen estudios en Colombia que hayan evaluado este proceso. Objetivo: describir las causas de cancelación de cirugía electiva y analizar su relación con la valoración preanestésica durante un mes en un hospital de cuarto nivel en la ciudad de Bogotá. Materiales y métodos: estudio observacional de tipo corte transversal donde se describe la frecuencia de cancelaciones de cirugía electiva y las variables relacionadas con la valoración preanestésica. Resultados: se revisaron 848 evaluaciones de pacientes programados para cirugía electiva; 59.8% fueron mujeres, el promedio de edad fue de 46.3±18.8 y 45.3±21.4 años para mujeres y hombres respectivamente. El 46.3% de los pacientes se clasificó en riesgo anestésico ASA I y el 45.9% en ASA II. La incidencia de cancelación de cirugías programadas fue de 5.9% (n=50), de las cuales 18% (n=9) correspondió a causas anestésicas. Conclusión: la tasa de cancelación de procedimientos electivos es baja y no se relaciona con una causa anestésica o una valoración preanestésica deficiente.

An Exploration of Inclusive Education Policies Aimed at Students with Disabilities vs. the Panorama of EFL Scenarios in Colombia

This article reflects upon the policies that regulate inclusive education in Colombia for students with disabilities and contrasts it with the reality of EFL teaching/learning nowadays. The concept of inclusion has gained interest among government officials and scholars in recent decades; as a result, much inclusivity legislation has been created to guarantee access for disabled students in mainstream schools. However, there are not clear procedures and adequate scenarios to address foreign language education in Colombia for this population, resulting in more exclusion, discrimination and lack of opportunities for disabled learners.

ZIDRES Law: Emergent Normative Foundation of State Legitimacy in Rural Areas in Colombia

Este trabajo surge del análisis de las transformaciones en la narrativa sobre seguridad alimentaria y sus efectos sobre los fundamentos normativos de la legitimidad estatal y la gobernanza rural. El concepto de seguridad alimentaria es diferente, en tanto los países no necesitan depender exclusivamente de la producción agrícola nacional para alimentar su población. Simultáneamente, países con tierra cultivable disponible, como Colombia, se encuentran expuestos a una creciente demanda de tierras para proyectos agrícolas; este fenómeno está transformando la gobernanza rural. El artículo sugiere que el Estado está dispuesto a ceder funciones de gobierno a inversionistas privados en áreas remotas, esperando crecimiento económico, control poblacional y provisión de bienes públicos. Dicho modelo tiene importantes implicaciones para el post-acuerdo en Colombia.

Lo político reconsiderado desde lo común. Reflexión sobre la posibilidad del posconflicto en Colombia

<p>En el presente escrito plantearé cómo la posibilidad de un escenario de posconflicto en Colombia se puede construir a través de una redefinición de lo político desde un planteamiento de lo común como un modo de política inclusiva que permita construir la relación nosotros/ellos en torno a intereses o valores de los individuos que conforman un grupo con afinidades, intereses disímiles y pasiones antagónicas que pueden ser resueltas en un campo agonístico. Dicho planteamiento lo abordaré en cuatro momentos. El primero, expone el concepto de comunidad de Schmitt. El segundo, deconstruye el concepto schmittiano de lo político. El tercer momento presenta la concepción de lo común como el resultado de las relaciones de multiversos políticos. Finalmente, se reflexiona sobre la construcción de un escenario de posconflicto en Colombia, concebido como la relación de multiversos políticos.</p><div class="page" title="Page 2"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>Palabras clave: </span><span>político, conficto, agonístico, multicultural, común. </span><span>Abstract </span></p><p> </p></div></div></div>

Methodology for improving the reliability of biomass energy potential estimation

This paper presents a novel approach to address uncertainty and improve reliability of the estimation of the biomass energy potential at a country level, particularly suitable for situations when quality and availability of data are limited. The proposed methodology improves the prediction reliability by following four steps: 1) using a simple accounting framework, 2) using a robust selection of probability density functions, 3) using a probabilistic propagation of uncertainty and 4) using sensitivity analysis to identify key variables contributing to uncertainty as well as a root cause analysis and a set of sub-models to improve estimation of key variables.The application of the methodology to the energy scenario in Colombia shows that the improved estimation of the theoretical energy potential has an almost identical mean value compared to the preliminary estimate, but the uncertainty is significantly lower (less than 50%). Moreover, the mean value of the technical energy potential obtained through the methodology is 25% lower than the preliminary potential and the uncertainty reduces by one third.