Abstract
Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale are main factors to which insects and plants adapt through natural selection, although periodic outbreaks in insect populations may occur in areas where they had not been previously reported, a phenomenon considered as a consequence of global warming. In this study, we estimate the distribution of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climate scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60 and rcp85.) Insects were collected weekly in four sugarcane fields from four different towns in the department of Caldas (Colombia) during 2017, and also in several sugarcane fields in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) between 2010 and 2017. The influence of climatic variables on different agro-ecological zones of the CRV sugarcane fields was defined by climatic data between 2010 and 2017 (maximum and minimum daily temperatures, and accumulated precipitation). The estimate of an optimal niche for Diatraea spp. includes temperatures between 20°C and 23°C, accumulated annual rainfall between 1200 and 1500 mm, dry months with precipitations below 50 mm, slopes of less than 0.05 degrees, crop heterogeneity with an index of 0.2 and primary production values of 1.0. Data suggests Diatraea population is considerably influenced by adverse climate change effects, under the premise of an increase in local and global temperatures, reducing its population niches as well as the number of individuals.
Highlights
The Earth’s temperature has increased 1.8 ̊C over the past 35 years and the last two decades have been among the warmest since temperatures began to be recorded
In Caldas, insects were collected during 2017 from fields in four municipalities (Riosucio, Supıa, Filadelfia, Neira and Manzanares); whereas in the departments of Risaralda and Valle del Cauca, samples were collected from 2010 to 2017 from different municipalities in what it is known as the Cauca River Valley (CRV), a region that extends from northern Cauca to southern Risaralda (Fig 1)
Species distribution models, based on statistical and cartographic procedures plus real presence data, have become a tool for analysis of organisms spatial patterns, making it possible to infer potentially suitable areas based on favorable environmental conditions
Summary
Insects were collected in western Colombia in the departments of Caldas, Risaralda and Valle del Cauca. In Caldas, insects were collected during 2017 from fields in four municipalities (Riosucio, Supıa, Filadelfia, Neira and Manzanares); whereas in the departments of Risaralda and Valle del Cauca, samples were collected from 2010 to 2017 from different municipalities in what it is known as the Cauca River Valley (CRV), a region that extends from northern Cauca to southern Risaralda (Fig 1). Larvae were taken to the laboratory and identified following taxonomic keys [17]. This information was used in combination with the CABI—Invasive Species Compendium The distribution map of the weather stations was generated by QGIS 3.6.1, according to coordinates of the different stations
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