Climate change and adaptive strategies in Brazil: the economic effects of genetic breeding

Marcel Viana Pires,Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

doi:10.1590/s0103-20032014000400001

Abstract

Plant breeding through the development of seeds resistant to water stress or high temperature is an important adaptive strategy to cope climate change. In this way, by providing an analysis of adaptation to climate change using genetic breeding on Brazilian farms, this work aims to investigate how climate change will affect the adoption of genetic breeding and profitability of farmers. Temperature and rainfall projections for 2010-2099 time periods were used, considering different climate scenarios (A1B and A2), according to the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007). A Treatment Effects model outlines the analytical framework in this study. Our results indicate the probability of adopting transgenic seeds will grow from 74% in the current period to 86% in 2020, 83% in 2050, and 81% in 2080. Farmers adopting this adaptation strategy will have higher profits. Land value tends to be higher in both climate scenarios in counties with cultivated areas using transgenic seeds. Farmers adopting this adaptation measure will be less exposed to adverse effects of climate change. We conclude that it is necessary to invest in adaptation strategies so that Brazil can overcome adverse effects of global climate change.

Highlights

The agricultural sector is one of the most vulnerable to climate change because it directly depends on temperature and rainfall (DESCHÊNES and GREENSTONE, 2007)
We investigated how climate variability affects the adoption of genetic breeding and if this adaptation strategy will reduce the vulnerability of Brazilian agriculture to climate alterations
This study tests the hypothesis that genetic breeding as an adaptive strategy tends to reduce the negative effects of global climate change on the Brazilian agricultural sector

Summary

Introduction

The agricultural sector is one of the most vulnerable to climate change because it directly depends on temperature and rainfall (DESCHÊNES and GREENSTONE, 2007). According to Nelson et al (2013), the average effect of climate change on yields of different groups of crops and geographic regions is a 17% decline around the world. Effective adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the developing world will require information about the relative risks posed by climate change and the likely mechanisms of potential damage, to prioritize among different types of possible solution (LOBELL et al, 2011). According to Seo and Mendelsohn (2008a), taking into account adaptation in order to adequately quantify the impacts of climate change on agriculture is mandatory nowadays. Those analyses cannot estimate how a particular crop will be affected, but it should recognize farmers will change their production decisions to maximize profit according to each climate scenario. Studies that assume farmers will continue performing the same activities without changing their production techniques certainly overestimate losses

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