Adaptability of wheat to future climate change: Effects of sowing date and sowing rate on wheat yield in three wheat production regions in the North China Plain

Abstract

Adjusting sowing dates and sowing rates is a key adaptation strategy for adapting to future climate change, and maintaining wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). However, it is still unclear whether the current sowing date and sowing rate can adapt to future climate change, and how to adjust the sowing date and sowing rate to compensate for the adverse effects of climate change on wheat yields. This study predicts the adaptability of agricultural management practices like sowing dates and sowing rates, to future climate change in three wheat regions by referring to four global climate models (GCMs) and AquaCrop model. Population structure and yield were maximized for sowing dates from Oct.11–20 and sowing rates of 10–13 kg/667 m2 (or 13–16 kg/667 m2) in 2016–2021. Three wheat regions were expected to show a warming trend, while the total precipitation has large spatial fluctuations under both representative concentration pathways (rcp) scenarios in the 2022–2100. AquaCrop model could simulate yield with a good precision (RMSE≤1043.7 kg/ha). Compared to the average yield of the baseline period (2016–2021), in the 2022–2100, the average predicted wheat yields of three wheat regions simulated based on the current optimal sowing date and sowing rate decreased by 5.45 % ∼ 11.05 % (9.35 % ∼ 16.84 %) and 2.57 % ∼ 10.95 % (6.97 % ∼ 12.75 %) under the rcp4.5 (rcp8.5), respectively. Average wheat yield losses were effectively compensated when the combinations of Oct.15 and 14 kg/667 m2 for the dryland wheat, Oct.21 and 14 kg/667 m2 for the irrigated wheat, and Oct.21 and 13 kg/667 m2 for the high-yield-rainfed wheat were applied under both rcp scenarios, respectively, with predicted yield losses of −4.17 %, −3.50 %, and − 3.25 %. Thus, adjusting sowing dates and sowing rates are viable options to effectively address the adverse effects of future global climate change, thereby guaranteeing food security in the NCP.