Future Development Scenarios Research Articles

Spatial-temporal dynamics and scenario simulation of land ecological security: a case study of Deyang, Sichuan Province, China.

As a means of producing the resources required for human survival and development, land is the cornerstone of social development and an important part of the ecological environmental system. To measure the granularity and spatial differentiation of changes in the ecological security levels of the study area, this paper uses the PSR model. A kilometer grid is used as the evaluation unit, and a relative entropy theory is used to obtain the combined weight. The comprehensive index method is used to calculate the ecological security value of the land. Based on clarifying the dynamics of time and space, the spatial distribution of the ecological security levels in 2020 is simulated by the CA-Markov model. The results show the following: (1) the level of ecological security in the city of Deyang decreases from 0.580 in 2005 to 0.558 in 2015, showing a fluctuating downward trend, and different districts, cities, and counties and show varying trends. (2) During the study period, the area classified with a safe level decreased from 2853.72km2 in 2005 to 1809.45km2 in 2015, and the areas with critical safe, less safe, and unsafe levels all increased. The areas of decrease are mainly concentrated in the Jingyang District, Luojiang County, and Zhongjiang County. (3) The results of four proposed scenarios for future economic or environmental development are significantly different. Maintaining the status quo cannot change the declining trend in ecological security in the city of Deyang. A priority of economic development will lead to a significant decline in land ecological security. Establishing environmental protection as a priority can significantly change the ecological security of the land in the city. The results of the "comprehensive" scenario simulation are closest to the actual security values calculated for 2019, reflecting the trade-off between economic development and environmental protection. The research results can provide a reference for the evaluation and prediction of ecological security and provide theoretical guidance for the formulation of sustainable measures.

Fluorescence sensors for imaging membrane lipid domains and cholesterol.

Lipid membrane domains are supramolecular lateral heterogeneities of biological membranes. Of nanoscopic dimensions, they constitute specialized hubs used by the cell as transient signaling platforms for a great variety of biologically important mechanisms. Their property to form and dissolve in the bulk lipid bilayer endow them with the ability to engage in highly dynamic processes, and temporarily recruit subpopulations of membrane proteins in reduced nanometric compartments that can coalesce to form larger mesoscale assemblies. Cholesterol is an essential component of these lipid domains; its unique molecular structure is suitable for interacting intricately with crevices and cavities of transmembrane protein surfaces through its rough β face while "talking" to fatty acid acyl chains of glycerophospholipids and sphingolipids via its smooth α face. Progress in the field of membrane domains has been closely associated with innovative improvements in fluorescence microscopy and new fluorescence sensors. These advances enabled the exploration of the biophysical properties of lipids and their supramolecular platforms. Here I review the rationale behind the use of biosensors over the last few decades and their contributions towards elucidation of the in-plane and transbilayer topography of cholesterol-enriched lipid domains and their molecular constituents. The challenges introduced by super-resolution optical microscopy are discussed, as well as possible scenarios for future developments in the field, including virtual ("no staining") staining.

共享社会经济路径下中国2020—2100年碳排放预测研究

碳排放和减碳经济代价研究日益受到学术界和决策者的关注，中国政府做出的关于争取在2060年前实现碳中和的表态引起了国际社会的热议。在此背景下，开展中国未来长时间序列碳排放的情景预测具有切实意义。基于可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）评估了人口、经济和受教育程度对碳排放的影响，对比历史数据并验证了碳排放预测模型的准确性，结合共享社会经济路径（SSPs）情景的设定和模型参数，预测了5种情景下中国2020年至2100年的碳排放轨迹及经济代价。结果表明：（1）考虑碳排放达峰目标的实现，SSP3情景是中国未来发展的最佳情景，在此情景下，中国有望提前三年实现碳排放达峰目标；（2） SSP3情景可使中国年度总碳排放量和人均碳排放量处于相对其他四种情景的最低值，但需要付出累积GDP下降5.49%至8.80%的代价；（3）为完成在2060年前实现碳中和的承诺，中国政府在未来的40年需面对409.36-467.42 Gt的碳中和量；（4）2020年中国的碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降40.52%至41.39%，2030年碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降59.64%至60.75%。5种情境中，SSP5情景是降低碳排放强度的最佳情景，可最大程度地超额实现碳排放强度目标。未来，受经济发展、人口增长等重要因素影响，中国政府减碳压力将进一步加大。后疫情时代，考虑到能源供应的减少和高科技产业的发展，碳排放社会成本的上升将为中国创造一个使能源系统脱碳的机遇。中国应在"十四五"期间继续提升能源利用效率、升级产业结构、提倡低碳消费、实施隐含碳战略，以尽快实现碳减排目标。;Research on CO₂ emissions and the economic cost of carbon reduction has received increasing attention from academics and policy makers. The Chinese government's statement on striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 has aroused the heated discussions in the international community. In this context, it is of practical significance to predict China's future long-term CO₂ emissions scenarios. Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, this paper evaluates the impacts of population, economy, and education on CO₂ emissions and verifies the accuracy of the CO₂ emission prediction model by comparing with historical data. Combined with the settings and model parameters of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, this paper predicts China's CO₂ emission trajectory and economic costs from 2020 to 2100 under five scenarios. The results show that:(1) considering the realization of the goal of reaching the peak of CO₂ emissions, the SSP3 scenario is the best scenario for China's future development. Under this scenario, China is expected to achieve the goal of reaching the peak of CO₂ emissions three years ahead of schedule. (2) The SSP3 scenario can keep China's annual total CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂ emissions at the lowest levels relative to the other four scenarios, but at the cost of a cumulative GDP reduction of 5.49% to 8.80%. (3) To fulfill the commitment to achieve CO₂ emission neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government will need to face a CO₂ neutralization amount of 409.36 to 467.42 Gt over the next 40 years. (4) China's CO₂ emission intensity in 2020 will be 40.52% to 41.39% lower than the 2005 level, and the CO₂ emission intensity in 2030 will be 59.64% to 60.75% lower than the 2005 level. Among the five scenarios, the SSP5 scenario is the best scenario for reducing the CO₂ emission intensity, which can exceed the CO₂ emission intensity target to the maximum extent. In the future, the pressure of the Chinese government to reduce CO₂ emission will further increase which is affected by important factors such as economic development and population growth. In the post-epidemic era, considering the reduction of energy supply and the development of high-tech industry, the rising social cost of CO₂ emissions will create an opportunity for China to decarbonize the energy system. China should continue to improve energy efficiency, upgrade industrial structure, promote low-carbon consumption and implement implied carbon strategy during the 14th five-year Plan period, so as to achieve the CO₂ reduction target as soon as possible.

Поствыборный кризис в Мьянме

The article analyzes the current political situation in Myanmar where the military came back to power in February 2021. The legality of introducing the state of emergency by the military and of transferring the state power to the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is addressed. The situation in Myanmar is also compared with the neighbouring Thailand where military takeovers have become a political routine. The difference between Myanmar’s and Thailand’s coups and their perceptions by the international community is highlighted. The “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi factor” and the political-information campaign against Myanmar in global mass media are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the U.S. policy towards Myanmar as a country that is strategically located at the coast of the Bay of Bengal. The role of U.S.-based charity funds and social networks in organizing mass protests in Myanmar, in reaction to the state of emergency declared by the military, is explored. The Civil Disobedience Movement’s actions, goals and practical results are discussed. Finally, the article outlines scenarios of future developments and focuses on the key role of Myanmar’s military (the Tatmadaw) in peaceful solution of the post-election political crisis in Myanmar.

The global economy affected by the COVID-19

Research background:The disease, which broke out in December 2019 in the Chinese city of Wuhan and caused a pandemic around the world, has a constant impact on the economies of the countries even after almost two years. The issue of the effect of COVID-19 on the global economy and overall earnings management persists. Due to the topicality of the problem, we focused on the impacts and measures affecting the company’s operation.Purpose of the article:The purpose of this research article is to summarize current information on coronavirus and its effects almost two years after the outbreak. Additionally, outline three different scenarios that could occur. We also took into consideration scientific sources that deal with the shock of COVID-19. In addition, we summarize the opinions of scientific authors.Methods:Within the methodology, we used mainly the analysis and obtaining an objective picture of the current situation in the world. Following the outbreak of the pandemic, there have been significant inconstancies in GDP. Subsequently, we focus on the development of individual selected macro indicators that best describe the global economy.Findings & Value added:Finally, we offer three scenarios that outline three different situations that may occur, which we worked on based on a scenario analysis based on a modification of the sensitivity analysis, to specify future development scenarios based on macroeconomic indicators.

Decomposition analysis of per capita emissions: a tool for assessing consumption changes and technology changes within scenarios

Recent studies show that behaviour changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. Existing climate change mitigation scenarios primarily focus on technological change and underrepresent the possible contribution of behaviour change. This paper presents and applies a methodology to decompose the factors contributing to changes in per capita emissions in scenarios. With this approach, we determine the relative contribution to total emissions from changes in activity, the way activities are carried out, the intensity of activities, as well as fuel choice. The decomposition tool breaks down per capita emissions loosely following the Kaya Identity, allowing a comparison between the contributions of technology and consumption changes among regions and between various scenarios. We illustrate the use of the tool by applying it to three previously-published scenarios; a baseline scenario, a scenario with a selection of behaviour changes, and a 2 °C scenario with the same selection of behaviour changes. Within these scenarios, we explore the contribution of technology and consumption changes to total emission changes in the transport and residential sector, for a selection of both developed and developing regions. In doing so, the tool helps identify where specifically (i.e. via consumption or technology factors) different measures play a role in mitigating emissions and expose opportunities for improved representation of behaviour changes in integrated assessment models. This research shows the value of the decomposition tool and how the approach could be flexibly replicated for different global models based on available variables and aims. The application of the tool to previously-published scenarios shows substantial differences in consumption and technology changes from CO2 price and behaviour changes, in transport and residential per capita emissions and between developing and developed regions. Furthermore, the tool’s application can highlight opportunities for future scenario development of a more nuanced and heterogeneous representation of behaviour and lifestyle changes in global models.

Water resource modelling for the Lake Tana sub-basin using the Mike Basin model for current and future water resource development scenarios

Water resource modelling for the Lake Tana sub-basin using the Mike Basin model for current and future water resource development scenarios

Microneedle array systems for long-acting drug delivery

The development of microneedles (MNs) assisted drug delivery technologies have been highly active for more than two decades. The minimally invasive and self-administered MN technology bypasses many challenges associated with injectable drug delivery systems, by delivering the therapeutic materials directly into the dermal and ocular space and allowing the release of the active ingredient in a sustained or controlled manner. Different types of MNs (biodegradable solid/dissolving MNs and nanoparticle loaded/coated polymeric MNs or delivery by hollow MNs) have been envisioned for long-acting sustained delivery of therapeutic payloads, with the aim of reducing the side effects and administration frequency to improve the patient compliance. In this review, we covered the different types of MNs loaded with different nano/biotherapeutics for long-acting delivery for a wide range of potential clinical applications. We also outlined the future development scenario of such long-acting MN delivery systems for different disease conditions to achieve improved clinical benefit. Finally, we discussed the challenges lie ahead to realize the full potential of sustained-release long-acting MNs in the clinic.

Strategies for the Management of Traditional Chestnut Landscapes in Pesio Valley, Italy: A Participatory Approach

Through an exploratory case study conducted in the Pesio Valley, northwest Italy, this paper proposes a framework for maintaining traditional chestnut production landscapes and addressing future development policies. The main goal was to understand how to promote a bottom-up planning approach, including stakeholder perceptions in traditional chestnut landscape management. To ensure the sustainability of the landscape, current driving forces and their landscape effects were identified by local stakeholders using a focus group technique. Population ageing, local forestry policies directed towards supporting chestnut growers’ income, social and economic needs, and land fragmentation are the main driving forces that will influence future chestnut landscapes. The focus group participants built two scenarios of possible future development of the chestnut landscape, one characterized by the disappearance and transformation of chestnut stands, the other by their permanence and maintenance. The most recommended strategies for maintaining traditional chestnut cultivation were chestnut processing, fruit designation of origin, and the cultivation of traditional varieties. This study shows that, to preserve the traditional chestnut landscape, the participation of multiple stakeholders is a useful approach in landscape planning. This methodology could guide decision-makers and planners who desire to implement a participatory approach to a sustainable development program for traditional chestnut landscapes.

Sustainable Floodplains: Linking E-Flows to Floodplain Management, Ecosystems, and Livelihoods in the Sahel of North Africa

Floodplains are particularly important in the semi-arid region of the Sub-Sahelian Africa. In this region, water governance is still being developed, often without adequate information and technical capacity for good, sustainable water resource management. However, water resources are being allocated for use with minimal sustainability considerations. Environmental flows (e-flows) include the quantity and timing of flows or water levels needed to meet the sustainable requirements of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems. Holistic regional scale e-flows linked to floodplain management can make a noticeable contribution to sustainable floodplain management. The Inner Niger Delta (IND) in Mali is an example of a vulnerable, socio-ecologically important floodplain in the Sahel region of North Africa that is being developed with little understanding of sustainability requirements. Although integrally linked to the Upper Niger River catchment, the IND sustains a million and half people within the region and exports food to surrounding areas. The flooding of the Delta is the engine of the socio-economic development as well as its ecological integrity. This paper aims to demonstrate the contribution that holistic regional e-flow assessment using the PROBFLO approach has to achieving floodplain sustainability. This can be achieved through the determining the e-flow requirements to maintain critical requirements of the ecosystems and associated services used by local vulnerable human communities for subsistence and describing the socio-ecological consequences of altered flows. These outcomes can contribute to the management of the IND. In this study, the socio-ecological consequences of altered flows have been evaluated by assessing the risk of alterations in the volume, duration, and timing of flows, to a number of ecological and social endpoints. Based on the risk posed to these endpoints by each scenario of change, an e-flow of 58% (26,685 million cubic meters (MCM) of water annually) was determined that would protect the ecosystem and maintain indicator components at a sustainable level. These e-flows also provide sustainable services to local communities including products for subsistence and limit any abnormal increases in diseases to the vulnerable African communities who live in the basin. Relative risk outputs for the development scenarios result in low-to-high-risk probabilities for most endpoints. The future development scenarios include insufficient flows to maintain sustainability during dry or low-flow periods with an increase in zero flow possibilities. Although unsuitable during the low-flow or dry periods, sufficient water is available through storage in the basin to meet the e-flows if these scenarios were considered for implementation. The IND is more vulnerable to changes in flows compared to the rivers upstream of the IND. The e-flow outcomes and consequences of altered flow scenarios has contributed to the management of vulnerable IND floodplains and the requirements and trade-off considerations to achieve sustainability.

Urban Planning Education and Using CityCAD to Transform Our Cities

Computer-aided design (CAD) tools are widely used in the urban planning process, giving planners the ability to generate urban contexts and many scenarios for future development. However, debate is ongoing regarding the effects of CAD tools on student learning and the reliability of the cluster of assumptions that usually come with them. This article aims to examine whether CityCAD can be an effective tool for achieving learning objectives related to critical thinking, problem-solving, and creativity in the urban planning discipline. This research also examines whether the software influences students’ interest in planning and affects students’ perceptions of the discipline. Using instructor observations, students’ projects, and surveys, we find that using CityCAD in education can achieve learning objectives, increase students’ interest, and enhance the perception of planning as a more creative field. The results have implications for instruction, student recruitment, and perceptions of the field.

Second Life Batteries Used in Energy Storage for Frequency Containment Reserve Service

The new Li-ion battery systems used in electric vehicles have an average capacity of 50 kWh and are expected to be discarded when they reach approximately 80% of their initial capacity, because they are considered to no longer be sufficient for traction purposes. Based on the official national future development scenarios and subsequent mathematical modeling of the number of electric vehicles (EVs), up to 400 GWh of storage capacity in discharged batteries will be available on the EU market by 2035. Therefore, since the batteries still have a considerable capacity after the end of their first life, they could be used in many stationary applications during their second life, such as support for renewables, flexibility, energy arbitrage, peak shaving, etc. Due to the high output power achieved in a short time, one of the most promising applications of these batteries are ancillary services. The study assesses the economic efficiency of the used batteries and presents several main scenarios depending on the likely future development of the interconnected EU regulatory energy market. The final results indicate that the best results of second-life batteries utilization lie in the provision of Frequency Containment Reserve Service, both from a technical and economic point of view. The internal rate of return fluctuates from 8% to 21% in the realistic scenario, and it supports the idea that such systems might be able to be in operation without any direct financial subsidies.

Assessing development and climate variability impacts on water resources in the Zambezi River basin. Simulating future scenarios of climate and development

Study region: The Zambezi River basin, a transboundary basin supplying vital resources to vast human and environmental systems and subject to radical changes linked to climate and infrastructural development. Study focus: Application of a hydrological model (Pitman) established for 76 sub-basins covering the total basin area of about 1 350 000 km2 to assess the potential impacts of increasing water demand under global warming scenarios (1.5, 2, and 3 degree). New hydrological insights for the region: The application of the calibrated model to the analysis of different combinations of climate change and water use showed that the relative impacts are quite different across the whole Zambezi River basin. The greatest impacts are found in the areas containing large open water bodies (natural and man-made), that are very sensitive to the multiple effects of increased aridity. The uncertainty in the future simulation results remains hugely dependent upon the source of the climate change data and the change signals given by them. The sample RCM data (6 models) used are representative of many more model outputs, while the spread of possible climate change signals remains quite large. However, the main uncertainties do not invalidate the overall message of possible water resources change that is summarized in a substantial decrease in water availability under all the combined scenarios.

Ecological Scarcity Based Impact Assessment for a Decentralised Renewable Energy System

Increasing the share of renewable energies in electricity and heat generation is the cornerstone of a climate-friendly energy transition. However, as renewable technologies rely on diverse natural resources, the design of decarbonized energy systems inevitably leads to environmental trade-offs. This paper presents the case study of a comprehensive impact assessment for different future development scenarios of a decentralized renewable energy system in Germany. It applies an adapted ecological scarcity method (ESM) that improves decision-support by ranking the investigated scenarios and revealing their main environmental shortcomings: increased mineral resource use and pollutant emissions due to required technical infrastructure and a substantial increase in land use due to biomass combustion. Concerning the case study, the paper suggests extending the set of considered options, e.g., towards including imported wind energy. More generally, the findings underline the need for a comprehensive environmental assessment of renewable energy systems that integrate electricity supply with heating, cooling, and mobility. On a methodical level, the ESM turns out to be a transparent and well adaptable method to analyze environmental trade-offs from renewable energy supply. It currently suffers from missing quantitative targets that are democratically sufficiently legitimized. At the same time, it can provide a sound basis for an informed discussion on such targets.

Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change

Migration may be increasingly used as adaptation strategy to reduce populations' exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Conversely, either through lack of information about risks at destinations or as outcome of balancing those risks, people might move to locations where they are more exposed to climatic risk than at their origin locations. Climate damages, whose quantification informs understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability, are typically computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet migration is hardly included in commonly used IAMs. In this paper, we investigate how border policy, a key influence on international migration flows, affects exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. To this aim, we include international migration and remittance dynamics explicitly in a widely used IAM employing a gravity model and compare four scenarios of border policy. We then quantify effects of border policy on population distribution, income, exposure, and vulnerability and of CO2 emissions and temperature increase for the period 2015 to 2100 along five scenarios of future development and climate change. We find that most migrants tend to move to areas where they are less exposed and vulnerable than where they came from. Our results confirm that migration and remittances can positively contribute to climate change adaptation. Crucially, our findings imply that restrictive border policy can increase exposure and vulnerability, by trapping people in areas where they are more exposed and vulnerable than where they would otherwise migrate. These results suggest that the consequences of migration policy should play a greater part in deliberations about international climate policy.

The potential of coastal ecosystems to mitigate the impact of sea-level rise in shallow tropical bays

Shallow tropical bays in the Caribbean, like Orient Bay and Galion Bay in Saint Martin, are often sheltered by coral reefs. In the relatively calm environment behind the reefs, seagrass meadows grow. Together, these ecosystems provide valuable ecosystem services like coastal protection, biodiversity hotspots, nursery grounds for animals and enhancing tourism and fisheries. However, sea-level rise imperils these ecosystems and the services they provide because of changing hydrodynamic conditions, with potential effects on the interdependencies between these ecosystems. By means of a hydrodynamic model that accounts for the interaction with vegetation (Delft3D Flexible Mesh), the impact of sea-level rise (0.87 m in 2100) is investigated for three scenarios of future reef development (i.e. keep-up, give-up and catch-up). If coral reefs cannot keep up with sea-level rise, the wave height and flow velocity increase significantly within associated bays, with the wave height doubling locally in case of eroding reefs in our model simulations. Since the presence of seagrass strongly depends on the hydrodynamic conditions, the response of seagrass to the future hydrodynamic conditions is projected using a habitat suitability model that is based on a logistic regression. The spatial character of the bays determines the response of seagrass. In Orient Bay, which is deeper and partly exposed to higher waves, the seagrass will likely migrate from the deeper parts to shallow areas that become suitable for seagrass because of the surf zone moving landward. In contrast, the conditions for seagrass worsen in Galion Bay for the catch-up and give-up scenario; due to the shallowness of this bay, the seagrass cannot escape to more suitable areas, resulting in significant seagrass loss. It is shown that healthy coastal ecosystems are able to limit the change in hydrodynamic conditions due to sea-level rise. Therefore, preserving these ecosystems is key for ensuring the resilience of shallow tropical bays to sea-level rise and maintaining their ecosystem services.

Assessment of Energy Sustainability in Statistical Regions of Latvia using Energy Sustainability Index

Abstract The Single Energy Sustainability Index combines three key sustainability indicators: environmental, social and economic. The use of indicators makes it possible to create an overall index that shows not only how green the region is, but also includes the well-being and economic situation of its population. The study uses a universal formula that is adapted to the case study of Latvia. The energy sustainability index formula combines 12 weighted indicators. The multi-criteria analysis method AHP was used to determine criteria weights for this purpose. Latvia’s overall sustainability index was calculated at 0.48 and only the Riga region (0.65) exceeds the index value for Latvia as a whole. Using this sustainability development index, it is also possible to analyse possible future development scenarios for energy sustainability in Latvia and its regions. To assess the potential for future development and sustainability of regions in Latvia and other countries, it is necessary to continue the study.

Simulating the effect of urban light rail transit on urban development by coupling cellular automata and conjugate gradients

Urban light rail transit systems have a significant potential to alter future urban development. We developed a new cellular automata model (CACG) based on conjugate gradients, and applied it to 1) simulate historical urban development at Jinhua of China, and 2) project future development scenarios incorporating the effect of future light rail transit stations (LRTS). The model produced a realistic urban pattern for 2018 with overall accuracy exceeding 95%, Kappa coefficient exceeding 70% and figure-of-merit exceeding 32%, indicating the model’s ability to accurately capture urban dynamics. We predicted three different scenarios: a benchmark scenario of business as usual (BAU), a scenario focusing on LRTS, and an individual-factor-based scenario (ILRTS). The results show that the annual urban development intensity has the strongest correlation with LRT stations for LRTS-scenario, followed by ILRTS-scenario and BAU-scenario. The model can be readily applied elsewhere to assess the impact of urban infrastructure on future development.

Identifying sustainable winter habitat for whooping cranes

The only self-sustaining population of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) requires a network of conservation lands for wintering along the Texas Gulf Coast (USA), so that this increasing population can reach downlisting under the Endangered Species Act (1000 birds). We identify locations providing the highest quality and most sustainable wintering habitat for these whooping cranes through 2100 by predicting future habitats under three projections of sea level rise (0.6, 1.0 and 2.0 m by 2100), while incorporating two scenarios of future urban development. Our method combines predictions of future habitat quality with current whooping crane density estimates to calculate the potential carrying capacity of whooping cranes for each 10 m pixel within this 17,725 km2 area. We found whooping cranes used locations with salt marsh at twice the rate of places lacking marsh. Areas > 15 km from development or < 2 km from estuarine water had increased crane use. Predicted area of salt marsh habitat oscillated across time given different rates of sea level rise. One urbanization scenario predicted 3% and the other 1% of the area converting to development by 2100. We estimated the study area can support 4414 (95 % CI: 4096–4789) whooping cranes currently, 4795 (95 % CI: 4402–5269) with 0.6 m sea level rise, 3559 (95 % CI: 3352–3791) with 1 m sea level rise, and 2480 (95 % CI: 2375–2592) with 2 m sea level rise by 2100, under the more aggressive urban development scenario. By anticipating climate-induced habitat loss with species population expansion we provide the requisite spatial information for conservation planners to build a sustainable conservation estate for downlisting whooping cranes. By coupling wildlife biology with conservation planning and on-the-ground implementation, our work exemplifies a proactive approach to recover endangered species.

TGC20ReId: A dataset for sport event re-identification in the wild

Abstract Person re-identification (Re-ID) is the task of retrieving a person of interest taken from different cameras or from the same camera in different occasions. To address this challenging task, a large amount of labelled data is required both for testing and for learning. Such high quality annotated data is still rare for many Re-ID applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel dataset to evaluate Re-ID methods in complex real-world scenarios. In this case, we will be using a sporting event as the scenario. For this aim, participants in a 128 km night and day course were captured in five different recording points along the track and later manually identified and annotated. The dataset is evaluated using state-of-the-art techniques and wide array of experimental setups are considered, such as: day vs. night, motion blur, changes in clothing, etc. The evaluation suggests that the features present in the proposed dataset (time difference, unrestricted weather and illumination capture conditions, and the possibility of clothes changes between probe and gallery) pose a challenging scenario for future development in the Re-ID problem.