Scenario Planning Model Research Articles

SYNERGIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND FASHION

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the intersection between artificial intelligence (AI) and fashion, focusing on the potentials and ethical challenges related to the intensive use of large datasets. Using methodologies such as “Envisioning” and the “Scenario Planning Model”, the aim is to develop clear and structured approaches to the deployment of AI in the fashion industry, exploring how this technology can transform and enrich the creative process, extending human capabilities. Among the main ethical challenges are training on culturally connoted data, which risks introducing formative bias, and the need to explain AI processes and decisions in understandable terms (explainability). The possible formalization of AI methods to make their processes and results formal is also discussed. The potential capabilities of these technologies to overcome the limits of human intellect are also considered. The conclusions highlight the importance of a balance between technological innovation and ethical considerations to promote ongoing dialogue among diverse stakeholders, ensuring that AI in the fashion industry evolves inclusively, ethically, and responsibly, fostering a future where technology and human creativity coexist harmoniously.

Scenario Planning Approach to Adapting in the COVID Era.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused much uncertainty and disruption in healthcare resulting in many challenges for strategic planning. Scenario planning is a tool that allows healthcare leaders to plan healthcare delivery strategies by incorporating the uncertainties into the analysis and planning process. Variables were identified which will have major impact on the future, but whose future direction is uncertain. The extremes of these drivers were used to generate multiple scenarios. A subset of scenarios was used to evaluate potential tactics to determine which may be high yield in the face of uncertainty. Unlike traditional strategic planning, scenario planning does not develop a single future with a path to that future. Scenario planning evaluates tactics to determine which would be helpful in specific scenarios, multiple different futures or under specific conditions. We present a scenario planning model which can be used to determine specific tactics to accommodate the uncertainty due to variable healthcare delivery needs in the COVID-19 era.

Response time optimization for vulnerability management system by combining the benchmarking and scenario planning models

<span>The growth of information and communication technology has made the internet network have many users. On the other side, this increases cybercrime and its risks. One of the main attack targets is network weakness. Therefore, cyber security is required, which first does a network scan to stop the attack. Points of vulnerability on the network can be discovered using scanning techniques. Furthermore, mitigation or recovery measures can be implemented. However, it needs a short response time and high accuracy while scanning to reduce the level of damage caused by cyber-attacks. In this paper, the proposed method improves the performance of a vulnerability management system based on network and port scanning by combining the benchmarking and scenario planning models. On a network scanning to discover open ports on a subnet, Masscan can achieve response times of less than 2 seconds, and on scenario planning for detection on a single host by Nmap can reach less than 4 seconds. It was combining both models obtained an adequate optimization response time. The total response time is less than 6 seconds.</span>

Stress tests for public service resilience: introducing the possible-worlds thinking

ABSTRACT Tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and reverting to normal life and services requires resilience. This qualitative case study aims to help public sector managers understand service resilience and its accompanying breaking points by proposing a scenario planning model that tests resilience by applying possible-worlds thinking to public services. The proposed scenario planning model is based on empirical evidence showing how service design incorporated assumptions that became inaccurate in the pandemic, and how these inaccurate assumptions created pressures for change in the service design and production. The model we propose can help public managers apply such stress tests in practice.

MEASUREMENT OF EFFICIENCY UTILIZATION OF OIL PALM SOLID WASTE TO REDUCE FUEL IMPORT LEVELS IN INDONESIA

Indonesia is one of the countries that have a fairly high level of consumption of fuel oil (BBM), based on data from BPH Migas (2018) throughout 2018 which reached 75 million kiloliters or an average of 1.6 million kiloliters per day. The consumption includes 16.2 million kiloliters of certain types of fuel (JBT), special types of fuel for assignment (JBKP), and general types of fuel around 51.3 kiloliters. The data is growing this study aims to measure the efficiency of reducing imports of fuel oil by utilizing solid waste of palm oil and to make proposals for the formulation of planning scenarios to optimize the functions of the Indonesian palm oil downstream industry. This research method combines quantitative and qualitative methods using the concept of efficiency and the Scenario Planning model. The method used in this paper is to calculate the level of efficiency using quantitative data on oil palm based on the amount of plantation area and the solid waste it produces. Then a mapping of the downstream palm oil industry will be carried out by reviewing the results of previous research as well as data and information obtained from accurate sources. The result is that by optimizing the utilization of palm oil solid waste, 7.4 billion liters of bioethanol can be obtained which can be used to produce biofuels to reduce the level of imports of fuel oil in Indonesia.

A multi-scale framework for fuel station location: From highways to street intersections

Electric drive vehicles (plug-in electric vehicle or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) have been promoted by governments to foster a more sustainable transportation future. Wider adoption of these vehicles, however, depends on the availability of a convenient and reliable refueling/recharging infrastructure. This paper introduces a path-based, multi-scale, scenario-planning modeling framework for locating a system of alternative-fuel stations. The approach builds on (1) the Flow Refueling Location Model (FRLM), which assumes that drivers stop along their origin-destination routes to refuel, and checks explicitly whether round trips can be completed without running out of fuel, and (2) the Freeway Traffic Capture Method (FTCM), which assesses the degree to which drivers can conveniently reach sites on the local street network near freeway intersections. This paper extends the FTCM to handle cases involving clusters of nearby freeway intersections, which is a limitation of its previous specification. Then, the cluster-based FTCM (CFTCM) is integrated with the FRLM and the DFRLM (FRLM with Deviations) to better conduct detailed geographic optimization of this multi-scale location planning problem. The main contribution of this research is the introduction of a framework that combines multi-scale planning methods to more effectively inform the early development stage of hydrogen refueling infrastructure planning. The proposed multi-scale modeling framework is applied to the Hartford, Connecticut region, which is one of the next areas targeted for fuel-cell vehicle (FCV) market and infrastructure expansion in the United States. This method is generalizable to other regions or other types of fast-fueling alternative fuel vehicles.

PERENCANAAN SKENARIO DALAM PENGEMBANGAN BISNIS KULINER HALAL DI PULAU LOMBOK – NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

This research is describes the scenario planning for the development of halal culinary business on Lombok Island - West Nusa Tenggara Province. The purpose of this research is to create a scenario planning model in dealing with existing problems. This is descriptive research with data collection methods using case studies. Data collection is using observation, interview and documentation and data analysis is using scenario planning analysis. The focus of this research is about the stages in scenario planning using the TAIDA method consisting of Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Deciding and Acting. The results of the research showed that Lombok Island - West Nusa Tenggara was still not maximal, in developing halal culinary business, because there are several obstacles faced by the culinary businessmen and the government, so that good planning is needed to analyze and provide a scenario for the future conditions of the halal culinary business. This research is expected to provide an overview of the development of halal culinary business in Lombok Island in the future and minimize the consequences and possible impacts of developing a halal culinary business and to sharpen a strategy.Keywords : Scenario Planning, Business Development, and Halal Culinary.

A Two-Tier Scenario Planning Model of Environmental Sustainability Policy in Taiwan

This study proposes a two-tier scenario planning model, consisting of scenario development and policy portfolio planning, to demonstrate the environmental sustainability policy planning process. Scenario development embodies future scenarios that incorporate the uncertainties regarding the decision values and technological alternatives. Policy portfolio planning is used to assess the selected policy alternatives under each scenario and to develop a robust and responsive plan. We organized first- and second-tier committees of 10–12 experts from diverse professional fields to undertake environmental sustainability policy planning in Taiwan. The first-tier committee generated three scenarios: “live at the mercy of the elements”, “industry convergence”, and “technology pilot”. The second-tier committee ensured that, from cradle-to-cradle (C2C), green supply chain management (GSCM), and industry symbiosis (IS), life-cycle type policies enhance green willingness and capabilities in the businesses. This is the first study to consider the first-tier process with scenario development and the second-tier process with policy portfolio planning for environmental sustainability, and contributes by considering intuitive logics approach-based scenarios and robust policies for extant portfolio plans, providing life-cycle- type policy profiles in environmental sustainability.

Lessons for developing a planning support system infrastructure: The case of Southern California's Scenario Planning Model

Although planning support systems are being more widely adopted by professional planners, there are very few examples of planning support system infrastructures designed to support planning practices on an ongoing basis. This paper reports the result of an exploratory qualitative study of the Southern California Association of Governments' Scenario Planning Model, an innovative new planning support system infrastructure. Interviews with professionals who served as participants in a two-year development process were conducted to explore the six dimensions that theories from the planning support systems, innovation diffusion, and organizational information technology fields suggest are important to understanding the adoption and use of a planning support system infrastructure: user considerations, perceived benefits, technical details, the development process, jurisdiction characteristics, and planning style. Drawing on these interviews, the article proposes seven lessons for the creation of planning support system infrastructures: utilize participatory design, support a variety of planning practices, address indirect costs to users, encourage collaboration among multiple users within each organization, ensure that all stakeholders have appropriate access, be mindful of the framing of new technologies, and embrace their transformational potential. Although the Scenario Planning Model has benefited from California's unique planning mandates, advances in web-based geospatial technologies mean that many regions may draw on these lessons to create similar planning support system infrastructures, which have the potential to improve local and regional planning practices through enhanced information, analysis, and communication.

Scenario planning at business unit level

The scenario planning literature is focused on corporate level interventions. There is a general consensus on the method, but there is little debate about the stages involved in building and using the scenarios. This article presents a case study of a scenario planning intervention, which was conducted at a business unit of the British division of one of the largest beauty and cosmetic products multinationals. The method adopted in this case study has some fundamental differences to the existing models used at corporate level. This research is based on the principles of autoethnography, since its purpose is to present self-critical reflections, enhanced by reflective and reflexive conversations on a scenario planning method used at business unit level. The critical reflections concern a series of critical incidents which distinguish this method from existing intuitive logic scenario planning models which are used at corporate level planning. Ultimately this article contributes to the scenario planning method literature by providing insights into its practice at business unit level.

O PLANEJAMENTO DE CENÁRIOS COMO APRENDIZADO <br><strong>DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v2i1.20</strong>

O planejamento de cenários tem sido cada vez mais utilizado como instrumento para testar e melhorar o desempenho das organizações em ambientes dinâmicos. Neste artigo, objetiva-se demonstrar o potencial de um modelo experimental de Planejamento de Cenários para mobilizar, motivar e agregar maior conteúdo à tomada de decisão organizacional, principalmente no que se refere ao Planejamento Estratégico de duas instituições do setor público, uma indústria farmacêutica e uma fundação de ensino tecnológico. Descreve-se as etapas de aplicação de um modelo híbrido de planejamento de cenários - aqui denominado Planejamento pelo Aprendizado - por meio da pesquisa-ação; apresenta-se os cenários resultantes do experimento; e delineia-se os principais resultados de uma avaliação realizada sobre esta prática. Para tanto, analisou-se dois modelos já consagrados de Planejamento de Cenários - a escola Prospectiva e o modelo da Shell - que serviram como referencial para a proposição e aplicação de um modelo experimental nos dois objetos de estudo. O processo de avaliação do impacto da técnica foi realizado por um questionário que obteve altos índices de confiabilidade tendo ainda como suporte entrevistas em profundidade com os participantes. Ao final os resultados atestaram a eficiência do modelo em suportar a tomada de decisão no ambiente competitivo, no qual se inserem as duas instituições, assim como a promoção do aprendizado coletivo observado no decorrer dos trabalhos.

O PLANEJAMENTO DE CENÁRIOS COMO APRENDIZADO

Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005). The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation. This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model) were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Scenario Planning: Toward a More Complete Model for Practice

Numerous approaches to scenario planning exist. In fact, as a discipline that has grown more in practice than in any other domain, much about the process is not fully understood.This has led to extreme variety in method and process for conducting scenario projects.The authors begin the task of investigating the elements that appear common to multiple models and processes with intent of aggregating these elements toward a best practice approach. In this article, the authors present and describe several prominent scenario planning models in detail, highlighting the strengths and areas for improvement in each.They then discuss opportunities for solidifying best practices in terms of a sound approach to scenario planning in addition to offering the basis of a unifying model for moving the study of scenario planning forward. Conclusions and suggestions are provided for organizational decision makers and researchers.