Scenario Planning Approach Research Articles

Determinants of residential land value – a study of Delhi, India

PurposeLand value in urban areas in India is influenced by regulations, bylaws and the amenities associated with them. Planning interventions play a significant role in enhancing the quality of the neighbourhood, thereby resulting in a change in its value. Land is a distinct commodity due to its fixed location, and planning interventions are also specific to certain locations. Consequently, the factors influencing land value will vary across different areas. While recent literature has explored some determinants of land value individually, conducting a comprehensive study specific to each location would be more beneficial for making informed policy decisions. Therefore, this article aims to examine and identify the critical factors that impact the value of residential land in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, India.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a combination of semi-structured and structured interview methods to construct a Relative Importance Index (RII) and ascertain the critical determinants affecting residential land value. A sample of 36 experts, comprising property valuers, urban planners and real estate professionals operating within the National Capital Territory of Delhi, India, were selected using snowball sampling techniques. Subsequently, rank correlation and ANOVA methods were employed to evaluate the obtained results.FindingsLocation and stage of urban development are the most critical determinants in determining residential land values in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, India. The study identifies a total of 13 critical determinants.Practical implicationsA scenario planning approach can be developed to achieve an equitable distribution of values and land use entropy. A land value assessment model can also be developed to assist professional valuers.Originality/valueThere has been a lack of emphasis on assessing the impact of planning interventions and territorial regulation on land values in the context of Delhi. This study will contribute to policy decision-making by developing a rank list of planning-based determinants of land value.

Future study of revenue sources in the social security organization with the scenario planning approach

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.Design/methodology/approachThe research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.FindingsThrough theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.Originality/valueSome of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

Scenario Planning Approach of Coal Market Sales on PT ABCoal Towards Energy Transitions Era

Nowadays, energy transition is one of the major events faced by coal producers, particularly Indonesian coal producers. PT ABCoal is one of the largest coal producers in Indonesia. Based on the company’s 5-year plan, PT ABCoal is expected to increase its production volume from 25 to 30 million metric tons to around 35 to 45 million metric tons. Within the export market, most of the sales (around 50%) were sold to the Chinese market through off-takers. Meanwhile, the 25% for the domestic market is obliged by the Indonesian government regulation and is not negotiable. This research aimed to understand the future condition of the coal market within the next five years and what scenario would likely happen in the next five years. Afterward, it would try to provide the coal sales strategy that will fit into those scenarios using explorative scenario planning with expert interviews to obtain the perspective and knowledge from an interviewee who has expertise in this field. The obtained answers are then mapped into the PESTLE analysis framework to obtain more understanding and collect thorough driving forces data. The critical impact and high uncertainty were determined through qualitative-quantitative analysis from interview results using content analysis. Based on the analysis in this research, it is concluded that the top driving forces that are being used for scenario elements are coal price and government regulation. This research creates four scenarios that are called business as usual, finding a new home, home sweet home, and more is better. Each scenario needs a different approach to coal sales strategy to optimize its revenue and ensure the sustainability of its selling operation. The coal sales strategy optimization for each scenario is based on domestic and export composition, preferable domestic industry target composition, and developing-country export composition.

Review of Scenario Planning and Future Strategy of PT. Telkomsel's Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) Service Implementation

Purpose: This abstract provides a brief overview of a review article that explores the scenario planning approach and future strategies for the implementation of Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) services by PT. Telkomsel. This study aimed to analyze the limitations and contributions of scenario planning in shaping future strategies for FMC service implementation.
 Research methodology: This study uses a scenario planning method that aims to identify the driving forces for the future of the telecommunications industry in Indonesia in 2030, and then formulates a scenario for the future of telecommunications services in Indonesia, which is then used as the basis for recommendations for the company's business strategy for implementing PT. Telkomsel's FMC services, which will be carried out, are a qualitative method.
 Results: The research results found that, in the future, network coverage and technology will no longer be a competitive advantage for telecommunications companies in Indonesia. The research results show four future scenarios for the telecommunications industry in Indonesia: New Glory, Win Back Domination, Digital Colonialism and Business as Usual.
 Implementation: There is a phenomenon at PT. Telkomsel, where companies must always invest in additional infrastructure to meet customer bandwidth needs. PT. Telkomsel will implement fixed mobile convergence (FMC) services to increase a company's competitive advantage, but in implementing FMC services, companies must anticipate conditions that are changing (volatility), uncertain (uncertain), complex (complex), and unclear (ambiguity). (VUCA) to minimize future business risk. Therefore, scenario planning is necessary to create a corporate strategy.

A novel scenario planning approach considering criteria interaction in multi-criteria evaluation: An application to urban mobility

This study proposes a new scenario planning approach which consists of two main stages: evaluating scenarios under multiple criteria and selecting a manageable number of representative scenarios covering a wide range of future developments. In the evaluation stage, the interaction between criteria has been considered, which offers a significant contribution both to the scenario literature and practice. In the selection stage, a mathematical programming model has been developed to ensure the selection of distinct scenarios with high evaluation values. The approach is applied to an urban mobility system in a metropolitan area. The selected scenarios provide valuable insights into the future of urban mobility, serving as a basis for identifying strategies. The proposed approach does not offer a solution only for scenario planning problems, it can be effectively applied to similar problems in different areas.

Participatory scenario planning as a useful method for transforming ocean conflicts: Insights from a small-scale fishing conflict in São Paulo coast, Brazil

There are several initiatives towards the science-policy interface and the co-production of knowledge, but there is still few methodological and empirically grounded guidance helping scientists to design and implement research that actively facilitate transformative changes in ocean conflicts. In this paper, we explore the potential of the participatory scenario planning tool in the transformation of a conflict case on small-scale fishing in Brazil. We highlight the lessons learned, potential, and challenges of the scenario planning approach for conflict transformation. Despite being an approach widely applied to coastal and marine environmental and management issues, the scenarios methodology has not been explicitly applied in conflict situations, with the parties in dispute, as we did. Our methodological approach consisted of a previous research stage, based on documental analysis, direct observation of meetings and semi-structured interviews, followed by a participatory scenario planning workshop. Our results show that the participatory scenario planning was able to find the common desires as well as the uncertainties that generated doubts, mistrust, and in many moments disagreements among different groups of stakeholders that were in conflict. Previous research and the employment of multiple methods to build the history of the conflict contributed to legitimate researchers' positionality, to know the parties involved and the power dynamics. We raised some questions to advance the understanding of how the participatory scenarios planning contribute to transforming ocean conflicts in a more critical and politicized view.

Developing The Strategy for Steel Sales by Scenario Planning Approach

The steel industry, often regarded as the mother of industry, holds a pivotal role in fostering national economic independence and supporting vital infrastructure projects. In Indonesia, the development of the steel industry stands as a key indicator of industrial advancement. However, the landscape has evolved dramatically, with escalating competition not just from PT Krakatau Steel but also from numerous emerging competitors producing similar products. This dynamic situation demands an aggressive sales strategy to secure market dominance, especially given the challenges posed by both local and international competitors. Addressing this, PT Krakatau Steel faces the essential question of how to optimize steel sales, approaching or even matching the plant's installed capacity, amidst this competitive environment. The solution lies in proactive strategic planning, which involves a meticulous analysis of both external and internal factors. Recognizing the need for foresight, the company has employed scenario planning, envisioning potential futures for the steel industry. By considering variables like raw material prices and government policies, four scenarios emerged: Armageddon, The King, The King's Speech, and Cast Away. Each scenario prompts a specific set of strategies and actions. Moreover, the company has established early warning systems to discern which scenario might unfold, enabling timely and precise responses. This forward-thinking approach culminated in a comprehensive strategic plan designed to guide PT Krakatau Steel through the complexities and uncertainties of the business landscape over the next seven years.

Integrating equity in transportation scenario planning: A systematic review

To address the growing uncertainties in the future transportation industry, planners and engineers have identified and implemented scenario planning, a multi-step and strategic approach, in long-range transportation planning. A comprehensive examination of how equity is envisioned, planned, and analyzed during this process remains absent, despite several key guidelines of scenario planning exercises. This paper conducts a systematic literature review focusing on how equity has been considered and evaluated in scenario planning. The resources include academic papers, agency reports, and materials from the recent scenario planning conference, the 2nd Conference on Scenario Planning in Transportation hosted by the Transportation Research Board. This paper examines equity in scenario planning in three important ways: 1) the ways equity has been integrated across steps; 2) how equity analysis has evolved; and 3) when it is necessary to consider equity. This work adds value to the existing body of knowledge by presenting the policy implications based on the review of the current scenario planning research and practices. Early policy recommendations include the need for more vertical equity evaluations, the construction of robustness and justice indicators, and the adoption of a flexible mindset of planning for rather than being fixated on a single scenario.

Unlearning, relearning, staying with the trouble: Scenarios and the future of education

In times of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity—the so-called TUNA conditions—our experience of the past may prove a poor guide to the future times in which our decisions and their consequences will unfold. Under such conditions, the manufacture of scenarios that are plausible future contexts for a given issue and are designed to enrich strategic thinking by challenging expectations can help to inform decisions and debates. Education is often subject to such debates, as it is, among other things, a way of preparing for what the future holds. This article gives an account of learnings and unlearnings from a scenarios project applying the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach to the digitalization of education in Norwegian schools. It shows how challenging issues raised in the context of distant imagined futures proved to be immediately pertinent in the developing Covid-19 pandemic. This article sets this work in the wider context of education futures and ongoing debate about suitable methodological choices for institutions and communities wishing to explore how we will teach and learn together in times to come. As a wide range of actors explore the possibility of a new social contract for education, the article proposes that future scenarios can provide fresh perspectives on issues that are difficult or even impossible to resolve within current frames of reference, including questions of equity and justice that may be construed differently in times to come.

A hydrogen supply-chain model powering Australian isolated communities

This article proposes a supply chain-based green hydrogen microgrid modelling for a number of remote Australian communities. Green hydrogen can be used as an emissions-free fuel source for electricity generation in places where large-scale renewable energy production is impossible due to land availability, population, or government regulations. This research focuses on the Torres Strait Island communities in northern Australia, where the transition from diesel to renewable electricity generation is difficult due to very limited land availability on most islands. Due to geographical constraints, low population and smaller electrical load, the green hydrogen needs to be sourced from somewhere else. This research presents a green hydrogen supply chain model that leverages the land availability of one island to produce hydrogen to supply other island communities. In addition, this research presents a model of producing and transporting green hydrogen while supplying cheaper electricity to the communities at focus. The study has used a transitional scenario planning approach and the HOMER simulation platform to find the least-cost solution. Based on the results, a levelised cost of energy range of AU$0.42 and AU$0.44 was found. With the help of a green hydrogen supply chain, CO2 emissions at the selected sites could be cut by 90 %. This study can be used as a guide for small clustered communities that could not support or justify large-scale renewable generation facilities but need more opportunities to install renewable generation.

Pathological Evaluation of Using Scenario Planning in Academic Theses Focusing on Tourism-Related Subjects

ABSTRACT Given the increasing number of studies using the scenario planning (SP) approach, particularly in the field of tourism, the aim of the present study is to evaluate the challenges and deficiencies in theses that have employed Futures Studies (FS) using the SP method in the context of tourism, and then categorize these challenges into groups that describe them. Twenty-three in-depth interviews were carried out with university graduates, as well as university professors. Data analysis was performed using MAXQDA software. The results show the most important challenges of using this method include 1) inadequate knowledge of the students about FS research methods, 2) not knowing the nature of uncertainties, especially in the tourism context, 3) research topics being inconsistent with the needs of the Iranian tourism sector, and 4) the lack of facilities to share FS knowledge between the universities that are active in tourism area in Iran. Recommendations are provided to address these challenges.

Scenario Planning Approach to Adapting in the COVID Era.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused much uncertainty and disruption in healthcare resulting in many challenges for strategic planning. Scenario planning is a tool that allows healthcare leaders to plan healthcare delivery strategies by incorporating the uncertainties into the analysis and planning process. Variables were identified which will have major impact on the future, but whose future direction is uncertain. The extremes of these drivers were used to generate multiple scenarios. A subset of scenarios was used to evaluate potential tactics to determine which may be high yield in the face of uncertainty. Unlike traditional strategic planning, scenario planning does not develop a single future with a path to that future. Scenario planning evaluates tactics to determine which would be helpful in specific scenarios, multiple different futures or under specific conditions. We present a scenario planning model which can be used to determine specific tactics to accommodate the uncertainty due to variable healthcare delivery needs in the COVID-19 era.

Young people and post-pandemic futures: scenario planning as a radical politics of hope

PurposeIn this paper we report on the outcomes of a scenario planning project in Melbourne's (Australia) inner northern suburbs, which was undertaken in the context of an extended lockdown during Melbourne's second wave of COVID-19 infections. In this project, the researchers sought to identify the ways in which young people and youth service providers understood the challenges that the pandemic was creating for young people and the provision of youth services, and through the 5 years up to 2025.Design/methodology/approachThe project was shaped by a scenario planning methodology that produced three research informed scenarios of possible futures for young people in Melbourne's inner north in 2025. The project conducted a series of structured video interviews with young people, and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders that asked participants to reflect on the context of the pandemic, and what the future might hold in relation to young people's pathways and health and well-being, and the futures of their communities and the planet.FindingsThe scenario planning methodology revealed many concerns, uncertainties and anxieties that were shared, but which also varied between young people and stakeholders – both about the immediacy of the pandemic, and its aftermaths and intersection with future crises.Originality/valueThe scenario planning approach offers sociologies of education and youth a means to do the future-oriented, “hopeful” work that multiple crises for young people demand. Scenario planning is an “affirmative” exercise in hope by which sociologies can “stay with the trouble” that we find ourselves in, and that the pandemic has amplified.

The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach

Petrochemical industry is a strategic industry for a nation because it has a big impact on society at large. Petrochemical derivative products are an inseparable part of our modern life. With the development of technology, humans can synthesize innumerable combinations of petrochemical molecular structures to obtain materials with certain properties suitable for the final products to be made, from clothing, packaging, pharmaceutical, households, etc. All these products are mostly produced based on six building blocks of petrochemical, which are ethylene, propylene, butylene, benzene, toluene, and xylene. They, collectively, are called base petrochemical. However, the chemical sector and its derivatives contributed to the Indonesian Current Account Deficit. In 2019, The Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics reported that imports of chemicals and goods derived from chemicals reached USD 21.51 billion. Meanwhile, the export activity of this sector was only USD 12.65 billion. Thus, The Government of Indonesia through the Ministry of Industry (MoI) pays special attention to the industry as stipulated in the National Industrial Development Master Plan (Rencana Induk Pengembangan Industri Nasional – RIPIN). RIPIN 2015, which is spanned between the years 2015 to 2035, is a guideline for the government and industry players in planning and developing the national industry. Considering the importance of the base petrochemical industry, this research was conducted to find plausible scenarios for the industry in Indonesia. The time horizon in this research is the year 2035 which is in line with RIPIN document. In obtaining possible scenarios, a literature review was carried out and followed by interviews with several relevant and competent sources. This research produced four scenarios namely “The Ruptured SBR”, “The Abandoned ABS”, “The Aromatic Painkillers”, and “The Flying Polyester”. The approach employed is a Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) according to Adam Kahane’s work. This research does not focus on one particular entity or institution, but on the national basic petrochemical industry as a whole which consists of various stakeholders with different interests. So that in implementing the results of this research, it is important to realize that all parties need to contribute to achieve the desired future.

The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach

The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach

THE INTEGRATION OF CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND WHAT IF? FOR SCENARIO PLANNING: FUTURE RESIDENTIAL EXPANSION IN THE CITY OF IPSWICH

Abstract. The ever-increasing volumes of available data for urban planning and management have led to the development of a range of planning support systems (PSS) for the design of more flexible and people-oriented cities. In the time of rapid urbanization, there has also been a continued focus on land use change models to simulate its complex dynamics. However, the integration of land use change models with planning support systems has received comparatively little attention, despite its potential to provide a more comprehensive understanding of urban futures over spatial and temporal scales. Considering this, a Cellular Automata (CA) land use change model has been coupled with the What If? PSS in this research. Using the City of Ipswich as the study case, its land use regulations and interaction with surroundings are analysed with multi-source data such as population variation and infrastructure distribution. Land suitability evaluation and demand projections have been modelled using What If? with detailed processes of residential expansion under different scenarios. Two scenarios with different planning strategies are analysed for their future development. The results indicate that continued growth of current residential areas would be the most reasonable strategy for the study area in the following years. By using scenario planning approach, the proposed CA – What If model can be used as a practical tool to analyse the future development of cities. Such data-driven models and tools enable urban planners and policymakers to explore future growth scenarios in the era of big data and global urbanization.

Governing Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) in a Changing Climate: A Participatory Scenario Planning Approach Applied to Sweden in 2050.

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global crisis with long-term and unpredictable health, social and economic impacts, with which climate change is likely to interact. Understanding how to govern AMR amidst evolving climatic changes is critical. Scenario planning offers a suitable approach. By envisioning alternative futures, stakeholders more effectively can identify consequences, anticipate problems, and better determine how to intervene. This study explored future worlds and actions that may successfully address AMR in a changing climate in a high-income country, using Sweden as the case.MethodsWe conducted online scenario-building workshops and interviews with eight experts who explored: (1) how promising interventions (taxation of antimicrobials at point of sale, and infection prevention measures) could each combat AMR in 2050 in Sweden given our changing climate; and (2) actions to take starting in 2030 to ensure success in 2050. Transcripts were thematically analyzed to produce a narrative of participant validated alternative futures.ResultsRecognizing AMR to be a global problem requiring global solutions, participants looked beyond Sweden to construct three alternative futures: (1) “Tax Burn Out” revealed taxation of antimicrobials as a low-impact intervention that creates inequities and thus would fail to address AMR without other interventions, such as infection prevention measures. (2) “Addressing the Basics” identified infection prevention measures as highly impactful at containing AMR in 2050 because they would contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which would be essential to tackling inequities underpinning AMR and climate change, and help to stabilize climate-induced mass migration and conflicts; and (3) ”Siloed Nations” described a movement toward nationalism and protectionism that would derail the “Addressing the Basics” scenario, threatening health and wellbeing of all. Several urgent actions were identified to combat AMR long-term regardless which future un-folds, such as global collaboration, and a holistic approach where AMR and climate change are addressed as interlinked issues.ConclusionOur participatory scenario planning approach enabled participants from different sectors to create shared future visions and identify urgent actions to take that hinge on global collaboration, addressing AMR and climate change together, and achieving the SDGs to combat AMR under a changing climate.

Scenario Planning Approach to Pre-Event Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Future Mega-Tsunami Striking Kushimoto, Japan

Previous studies have argued the significance of pre-event planning for post-disaster recovery. We examined how scenario planning approach is effective for pre-disaster planning. We applied scenario planning approach to develop strategies for multiple possible futures of the case study city, expected to hit by a massive tsunami following the Nankai Trough earthquake. Our analysis reveals the adaptive and transformative strategies for multiple scenarios. Uncertainty surrounding dynamic recovery processes need to enforce transformative strategies to reframe the Japanese planning paradigm in post-disaster recovery.

Proposed Marketing Strategy to Fight Market Uncertainty for Indonesia Paper Company

The paper industry has faced pressures from the digitalization process and climate change over the past five years. Currently, the war in Europe is adding to the pressure. Companies from the paper industry, such as Indonesia Paper Company, must review their business strategies in facing this global market uncertainty. Using the Scenario Planning approach, this study finds two possible scenarios that companies can prepare for: the economy deteriorates into a world economic crisis, or the economy improves. Both scenarios show significant changes in market segmentation that can impact business and marketing strategies. The company has a Competitive Advantage in the source of raw materials. Therefore, the company can apply the Cost Strategy in facing a crisis. The advantage can also help companies carry out a Focused Differentiation Strategy when the economy improves. When uncertainty is still high, like today, companies can make internal improvements to adapt to rapid technological changes and optimize performance.

From forecasts to scenarios in strategic city-regional land-use and transportation planning

ABSTRACT The article proposes a theoretical framework for the application of four scenario-planning approaches in strategic land-use and transportation (LUT) planning, focusing on city-regions. Each approach has a specific role in the process, with a distinct mode of knowing: explanation (knowing what), narration (knowing how), argumentation (knowing to what end and practical judgment) and instrumentalization (doing). The framework is contrasted with reflections from Finnish planning practitioners and applied when reviewing the scenario and impact assessment process of the Helsinki Metropolitan Region strategic LUT plan. The article highlights the key role of explorative scenario planning in strategic city-regional LUT planning.