Scenario Planning Approach of Coal Market Sales on PT ABCoal Towards Energy Transitions Era

Abstract

Nowadays, energy transition is one of the major events faced by coal producers, particularly Indonesian coal producers. PT ABCoal is one of the largest coal producers in Indonesia. Based on the company’s 5-year plan, PT ABCoal is expected to increase its production volume from 25 to 30 million metric tons to around 35 to 45 million metric tons. Within the export market, most of the sales (around 50%) were sold to the Chinese market through off-takers. Meanwhile, the 25% for the domestic market is obliged by the Indonesian government regulation and is not negotiable. This research aimed to understand the future condition of the coal market within the next five years and what scenario would likely happen in the next five years. Afterward, it would try to provide the coal sales strategy that will fit into those scenarios using explorative scenario planning with expert interviews to obtain the perspective and knowledge from an interviewee who has expertise in this field. The obtained answers are then mapped into the PESTLE analysis framework to obtain more understanding and collect thorough driving forces data. The critical impact and high uncertainty were determined through qualitative-quantitative analysis from interview results using content analysis. Based on the analysis in this research, it is concluded that the top driving forces that are being used for scenario elements are coal price and government regulation. This research creates four scenarios that are called business as usual, finding a new home, home sweet home, and more is better. Each scenario needs a different approach to coal sales strategy to optimize its revenue and ensure the sustainability of its selling operation. The coal sales strategy optimization for each scenario is based on domestic and export composition, preferable domestic industry target composition, and developing-country export composition.