Rise Scenarios Research Articles

An Enhanced Filtering Generalized Integrator-Based Control for Improved Performance of a Grid-Tied PV System at Adverse Grid Voltages

This paper deals with a single stage photovoltaic (PV) system with improved resilience against adverse grid conditions. This is majorly achieved in two ways. First, it presents an enhanced filtering generalized integrator (EFGI) based filtering stage, to process the prevalent grid voltages and derive their positive sequence components free of harmonics components, unbalance, and DC offset. The presented EFGI delivers a considerable improvement over the conventional filters and helps to improve the power quality (PQ) in case of unequal or distorted voltage conditions. Second, to address large voltage dip or rise scenarios, a dual mode mechanism is applied for the selection of the DC link voltage ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">V_dc</i> ) reference and the corresponding generated PV array power. At regular voltage scenario and at availability of PV power, the reference <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">V_dc</i> is governed by the necessity to keep the PV array operating at its peak generation levels. However, at loss of PV power or divergent grid voltages, <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">V_dc</i> control is quickly transferred to an alternate approach, varying <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">V_dc</i> as per the existing grid voltages. Using this, the injected currents are limited, and system de-synchronization is prevented at voltage dips. The increased <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">V_dc</i> at grid voltage rise avoids deterioration in the grid PQ. The grid PQ is also assured despite the presence of local non-ideal loads. The EFGI benefits and the real time performance of the presented system, are assessed using test results.

A marsh multimodel approach to inform future marsh management under accelerating sea‐level rise

Abstract Accelerating sea‐level rise combined with the stresses of human land use threatens the persistence of tidal marshes. The proper management of existing marshes and the conservation of lands for marsh migration require a synthesis of factors affecting future marsh evolution. There are a number of existing marsh models, with different parameters and run at different scales, that can assist in this type of assessment. However, as with many models forecasting future conditions, there is no clearly identified ‘best’ model and they all perform slightly differently across different scenarios and with different suites of available data inputs. In this paper, we worked with local and regional managers to inform the development of an ensemble methodology that uses results from multiple marsh models in conjunction with social, land use and environmental data to inform marsh management, conservation and restoration under sea‐level rise. The methodology was developed and tested in three locations in the Virginia portion of the Chesapeake Bay, United States, using existing marsh migration models already run throughout the Bay. Stakeholder groups of local decision makers and a steering committee composed of regional managers were engaged in the process to ensure that the resulting methodology met current management needs. The need for a multimodel approach to identifying marsh migration pathways was supported by the marsh migration comparison done during methodology development which showed disparate results from multiple marsh migration models. Five existing marsh model outputs were combined into a single Marsh Migration Corridor Envelope (MMCE), which encompasses the potential area of current upland expected to become marsh under a selected sea‐level rise scenario. Within the identified MMCE, land covers were assessed for suitability for marsh support and the socio‐economic context of the parcels of land was considered. Last, the current condition of existing marsh on the properties was assessed to determine preservation activities that can increase their longevity. Together, these pieces of information inform a physical and sociological understanding of tidal marshes that can allow for a management framework that incorporates both current and future concerns.

Coastal Migration Index for Coastal Flooding Events Increased by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change: Mexico and Cuba Case Studies

This paper presents a coastal migration index (CMI) useful for decision-making in the current scenario of sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The CMI includes coastal human population density, degree of urbanization, and coastal-flooding penetration. Quantitative and qualitative statistical techniques and the geographic information system ArcGIS View 9.0 were used. Further, a panel of fifteen international experts in coastal management issues was consulted to establish and validate the CMI. Results led to three index components based on 22 indicators. CMI was applied in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico and in Santiago de Cuba province, Cuba. According to CMI estimates, the risk levels associated with SLR for human settlements analyzed in Mexico and Cuba were 5.3% and 11.0%, respectively. The most severely affected communities will require resettlement. Meanwhile, the CMI determined that 15.8% of the Mexican territory studied will be able to withstand the effects of SLR through the management of engineering works that will protect human settlements. The CMI determined that 79.0%, in the case of Tamaulipas, as well as 89.0% of the Cuban territory, will not require new policies or guidelines to promote conservation and protection of coastal natural resources. Lastly, the method used allowed for creation of a CMI stoplight map useful to coastal decision-makers to adopt sound management actions.

Comparative numerical simulation of storm surge inundation characteristics along the dynamic east coast of the Meghna estuary in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT Tropical cyclone (TC) is considered as the most dangerous and devastating hydrometeorological natural hazards in the coastal regions. On average, one severe cyclone strikes Bangladesh coast every three years. On the other hand, under significant sediment discharge from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River system (1.0 ~ 2.4 billion tons/year), Bengal delta dramatically changes its shorelines and bathymetry and has been gaining about 400 km2 land at the eastern part of the Meghna Estuary for the last twenty-seven (1991–2018) years. This study aims to investigate the impact of morphological changes on storm surge induced inundation characteristics on the newly reclaimed coastal lands along with different hypothetical land elevations and Sea level Rise (SLR) scenarios. Five different cyclone tracks are used to generate different cyclonic scenarios with the same strength as TC-1991. This study involves the application of the Delft-3D numerical model and ArcGIS to simulate, calculate, and visualize inundation. The results show that inundation heights strongly depend on the cyclone tracks even if the strength (wind speed and pressure drop) remains the same for all tracks. Also, with the accretion of lands, the inundation depth and extent will decrease at the mainland but increase at the accreted lands and the offshore islands, while with higher land elevation of the accreted lands, it will decrease. With SLRs, the offshore islands and accreted lands are more susceptible than the mainland. The impact of the all over land along with a 1.0 m Sea Level Rise (SLR) on the inundation depth and extent pattern will strongly depend on the elevation of the accreted lands.

Assessing the Influence of Shoreline Adaptation on Tidal Hydrodynamics: The Role of Shoreline Typologies

AbstractIn coastal embayments, tidal dynamics are influenced by mean sea level and shoreline configuration. As sea levels rise and coastal communities modify their shorelines to mitigate future flooding, spatial patterns of inundation, tidal amplitude, and tidal phase will change in response. Here we apply a hydrodynamic model to systematically investigate the effect of local‐scale, spatially refined shoreline protection on regional tidal dynamics and peak water levels in San Francisco Bay, California. We find that individual shoreline protection scenarios produce relatively small changes in tidal amplitudes at 50 and 100 cm of sea‐level rise but can result in amplification of the M2 tide by up to 40% at 200 cm of sea‐level rise. Protection of shorelines with gradually sloping topography and space for floodwater accommodation generally has the largest influence on tidal response, both locally and regionally. In the northern part of San Francisco Bay, tides down‐estuary of protected shorelines move closer to a standing wave, while up‐estuary tides become more progressive. In the southern part of the bay, which is already close to a standing wave, effects are more localized and variable. Overall, the tidal response to shoreline protection is a function of both the geographic location within the embayment as well as the geomorphic characteristics of the local landscape that is protected. Understanding the relative influence of local shoreline modifications on tidal dynamics under a range of sea‐level rise scenarios is critical to developing effective shoreline adaptation alternatives that maximize flood mitigation.

Wave energy assessment under climate change through artificial intelligence

The implementation of renewable energies is among the main challenges that we are confronting in the present situation of climate change. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) is optimized and used to assess the wave energy resource available to a wave farm over its service life. We select as case study a stretch of coastline in southern Spain. Different ANN architectures and training algorithms are tested for a dataset in deep water composed by: three values of significant wave height, four values of peak period, two values of incoming wave direction, three astronomical tide values, three storm surge values and three values of sea level rise induced by climate change. These deep-water sea states were propagated using a numerical model (Delft3D-Wave) and results were obtained at 176 locations. Thus, more than 114,000 data were used to train and test the ANNs. Once validated, the ANN was used to assess the cumulative wave energy at 704 locations during a 25-year period for three scenarios of rise in sea level according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports: present situation, pessimistic IPCC projection and optimistic IPCC projection. According to the results, the cumulative wave energy in the case study increases with increasing water depths. The greatest values of cumulative wave energy are reached at great depths off a shoreline horn and a port. Importantly, the rise in sea level will induce an increase in the wave energy resource. The ANN developed in this work allows the quantification of wave energy over long-term periods, reducing the computational cost, as well as the choice of the best locations for wave farms considering the effects of climate change.

The impact of sea level rise on maritime navigation within a large, channelized estuary

ABSTRACT Vessel handling guidelines in Tampa Bay have been developed and refined over many years to prevent vessel groundings, collisions, and other maritime incidents. These guidelines restrict navigation based upon vessel characteristics such as vessel length, draft, displacement, and destination, often in conjunction with tidal levels and current speeds. A numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary was used to examine the occurrence frequency of the most common limiting current speeds within the main shipping channel under four sea level rise (SLR) scenarios ranging from 0.25 to 2 m. Near the bay mouth, the occurrence of limiting speeds generally decreased with SLR, but farther up the channel it increased, mostly due to changes in the M2 tide, with contributions from other primary tides. The relative occurrence of slack water, the lowest of the limiting speeds, was most sensitive to SLR, with absolute changes in occurrence ~50%. Higher speed limits had smaller relative changes. A methodology is developed using data from the Automatic Identification System that identifies vessel traffic potentially impacted by SLR and changing tidal currents. Some implications of reduced tidal currents for port and vessel traffic management are discussed.

DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE RETURN PERIOD STILLWATER FLOODPLAINS FOR THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

Rising seas increase the exposure, vulnerability, and thus the risk associated with storm surge flowing across the coastal floodplain (Passeri et al. 2015). This is especially true across low-gradient coastal landscapes such as Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The extent and depth of flooding will be exasperated over the long term by morphologic changes to the shoreline, dunes and barrier islands (Plant et al. 2016, Passeri et al. 2016), marsh evolution (Alizad et al. 2016, Kidwell et al. 2017, Morris et al. 2016), and land use and land cover changes (Bilskie et al. 2014 &amp; 2016). This presentation will describe how to incorporate biogeophysical impacts of climate change into future tide and surge models. A methodology will be presented (Bilskie et al. 2018) to down select a suite of synthetic storms from recent flood insurance studies to force hurricane storm surge models that represent present day and future changes to the coastal landscape under four sea level rise (SLR) scenarios of low (0.2 m), intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate-high (1.2 m), and high (2.0 m). Results of peak storm surge are used to compute the 100-year and 500-year return period floodplain and stillwater surge heights for each SLR scenario.

Prioritizing countermeasures for reducing seawater‐intrusion area by considering regional characteristics using SEAWAT and a multicriteria decision‐making method

AbstractCoastal areas are being increasingly damaged by the expansion of seawater‐intrusion areas. This study suggested a three‐step method to prioritize the countermeasures adopted to reduce the areas affected by seawater intrusion. First, the most vulnerable area to damage from seawater intrusion was selected among 25 areas on the western coast of the Republic of Korea using three multicriteria decision‐making (MCDM) methods. As a result, Taean‐gun was selected as the most vulnerable area for seawater intrusion. Second, a numerical model called SEAWAT was configured to predict the areas where seawater intrusion could potentially occur. For future scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used as the sea‐level rise scenarios. To predict the future use of groundwater, the future groundwater extraction rate was predicted using a linear regression of the groundwater‐use data over the past 10 years. As a result, it was predicted that 68.5% of the total Taean‐gun area would be affected by seawater intrusion for RCP 8.5 and current trends in groundwater use. Third, the effectiveness of the measures adopted for the reduction of seawater‐intrusion areas were analysed by considering the projected future scenario and the local characteristics (including the total population, population density, groundwater‐level distribution, salinity distribution, groundwater‐use characteristics, and ground‐elevation distribution) of the Taean‐gun district. After considering the effects of the countermeasures adopted for the different locations in Taean‐gun and the data related to seawater intrusion, the priority areas for applying countermeasures against seawater intrusion were determined using three MCDM methods. It was concluded that the Taean‐myeon is a priority area for applying countermeasures.

Reducing risk in reserve selection using Modern Portfolio Theory: Coastal planning under sea‐level rise

AbstractClimate change is expected to impact many species and ecosystem services, although it is difficult to predict when and how these impacts may arise. Due to this uncertainty, it is difficult to plan management actions, such as designating protected areas, intended to adapt to climate change impacts. The danger of ignoring uncertainty is that resulting plans may fail to achieve conservation objectives, yet this is not usually incorporated in conservation planning.Recent studies have accounted for uncertainty by applying Modern Portfolio Theory—an approach for risk‐sensitive resource allocation used in the finance sector—to conservation planning. However, these approaches are not directly applicable to many conservation planning problems that typically include discrete site selection, multiple conservation objectives and a consideration of connectivity.We extend previous applications of Modern Portfolio Theory by incorporating these additional conservation planning requirements in the context of designing a reserve system and apply it to conserving coastal wetlands and associated ecosystem services under uncertain rates of sea‐level rise. This allows us to identify an optimal set of properties to preserve, while maintaining connectivity for landward migration of wetlands and accounting for risk. We compare spatial plans that resulted from our risk‐sensitive approach to reserve selection that ignored risk to determine whether, and how, explicitly accounting for risk alters planning outcomes.We demonstrate that incorporating sea‐level rise, but ignoring uncertainty, is a high‐risk strategy, even when planning for the worst‐case sea‐level rise scenario. In contrast, diversifying site selection through Modern Portfolio Theory can ensure the supply of ecosystem services by reducing the risk of failure across all sea‐level rise scenarios.Synthesis and applications. Climate change will continue to drive profound changes to socio‐ecological systems that are difficult to predict. In this context, risk reduction in spatial planning is a neglected but essential strategy for avoiding comprehensive failure and improving the long‐term effectiveness of conservation efforts. Modern Portfolio Theory, as presented here to account for the characteristics of real‐world conservation planning problems, provides a rigorous way forward in dealing explicitly with risk for many conservation planning exercises.

Multiagent Simulation for Complex Adaptive Modeling of Road Infrastructure Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise

AbstractInfrastructure systems in coastal areas are exposed to episodic flooding exacerbated by sea‐level rise stressors. To enable assessing the long‐term resilience of infrastructure to such chronic impacts of sea‐level rise, the present study created a novel complex system modeling framework that integrates: (i) stochastic simulation of sea‐level rise stressors, based on the data obtained from downscaled climate studies pertaining to future projections of sea level and precipitation; (ii) dynamic modeling of infrastructure conditions by considering regular decay of infrastructure, as well as structural damages caused by flooding; and (iii) a decision‐theoretic modeling of infrastructure management and adaptation processes based on bounded rationality and regret theories. Using the proposed framework and data collected from a road network in Miami, a multiagent computational simulation model was created to assess the long‐term cost and performance of the road network under various sea‐level rise scenarios, adaptation approaches, and network degradation effects. The results showed the capabilities of the proposed computational model for robust planning and scenario analysis to enhance the resilience of infrastructure systems to sea‐level rise impacts.

Nearshore Wave Power Increase on Reef‐Shaped Coasts Due to Sea‐Level Rise

AbstractLarge parts of tropical coastlines are influenced by the presence of reefs that shape its coastline. Wave attenuation crossing reefs as they approach the coast results in accretionary coastal features developed in its shadow zones. With the aim of assessing the level of wave exposure of the coastline under different sea‐level rise scenarios, numerical modeling experiments have been designed considering a coastline segment of approximately 450 km in northeast Brazil. Results show the distribution of wave power along the area of interest, with higher values being found in areas without reefs. However, when considering sea‐level rise scenarios, it is behind the reefs where the maximum differences in wave power are observed. The increase in the free surface over the reef structures as a result of rising sea level reduces the wave attenuation effects caused by these structures. Thus, the waves hit the shore with greater force in the shadow zone protected by the reef. Here, we demonstrate that regions within the reef shadow zones are most strongly affected by sea‐level rise with up to a 90% increase in the wave power, which will lead to increase in sediment transport and erosion processes. Such processes indicate a trend toward coastline flattening and alignment in response to less effective shadow zones.

CURRENT CHANGES IN THE THERMAL REGIME AROUND MAGADANSKY STRICT NATURE RESERVE

In the second half of the 20th century the process of global climate change has begun on the Earth, the atmosphere and the ocean have warmed up, snow and ice reserves decreased, the sea level rose, concentrations of greenhouse gases increased. An ongoing warming response has been recorded also in most of Northeast Asia. Climate and its change affect the life of the biota. The aim of this study is to reveal ongoing changes in the thermal regime in and around Magadansky Strict Nature Reserve, which is located in North-East Russia, in the Magadan Region. The nature reserve has four separate areas with maritime, sharply continental and transitional climates. Weather stations Magadan, Talon, Seimchan provide data that characterize the climate in the nature reserve. The annual duration of periods with mean daily temperatures above 5°C (growing season) were calculated for years 1953-2013 using long-term air temperature data series from the above weather stations. 30-year moving averages (tentative normals) were calculated from these series. Tentative winter season (with mean daily air temperatures steadily below 0°C) normals were determined similarly. The calculations and plotting were performed using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software. Long-term series of mean annual air temperatures demonstrated statistically significant upward trends. Annual air temperatures averaged over 1984-2013 were 1.1-1.2 °C higher compared to the preceding 30-year period. This resulted in a shift of the onset and end of the growing season and winter season. Their tentative normal durations trended in the opposite directions. The average duration of the growing season increased by 4-6 days, whereas the average duration of the winter season decreased by 4-8 days. Tentative normal durations of the growing season and winter season correlate well with mean annual air temperature. Formulas were obtained for calculating normal durations of these seasons under different scenarios of mean annual air temperature rise in the 21st century.

Forecasting tidal marsh elevation and habitat change through fusion of Earth observations and a process model

AbstractReducing uncertainty in data inputs at relevant spatial scales can improve tidal marsh forecasting models, and their usefulness in coastal climate change adaptation decisions. The Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a one‐dimensional mechanistic elevation model, incorporates feedbacks of organic and inorganic inputs to project elevations under sea‐level rise scenarios. We tested the feasibility of deriving two key MEM inputs—average annual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and aboveground peak biomass—from remote sensing data in order to apply MEM across a broader geographic region. We analyzed the precision and representativeness (spatial distribution) of these remote sensing inputs to improve understanding of our study region, a brackish tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay, and to test the applicable spatial extent for coastal modeling. We compared biomass and SSC models derived from Landsat 8, DigitalGlobe WorldView‐2, and hyperspectral airborne imagery. Landsat 8‐derived inputs were evaluated in a MEM sensitivity analysis. Biomass models were comparable although peak biomass from Landsat 8 best matched field‐measured values. The Portable Remote Imaging Spectrometer SSC model was most accurate, although a Landsat 8 time series provided annual average SSC estimates. Landsat 8‐measured peak biomass values were randomly distributed, and annual average SSC (30 mg/L) was well represented in the main channels (IQR: 29–32 mg/L), illustrating the suitability of these inputs across the model domain. Trend response surface analysis identified significant diversion between field and remote sensing‐based model runs at 60 yr due to model sensitivity at the marsh edge (80–140 cm NAVD88), although at 100 yr, elevation forecasts differed less than 10 cm across 97% of the marsh surface (150–200 cm NAVD88). Results demonstrate the utility of Landsat 8 for landscape‐scale tidal marsh elevation projections due to its comparable performance with the other sensors, temporal frequency, and cost. Integration of remote sensing data with MEM should advance regional projections of marsh vegetation change by better parameterizing MEM inputs spatially. Improving information for coastal modeling will support planning for ecosystem services, including habitat, carbon storage, and flood protection.

Transfer function noise modelling of groundwater level fluctuation using threshold rainfall-based binary-weighted parameter estimation approach

ABSTRACTConsiderable uncertainty occurs in the parameter estimates of traditional rainfall–water level transfer function noise (TFN) models, especially with the models built using monthly time step datasets. This is due to the equal weights assigned for rainfall occurring during both water level rise and water level drop events while estimating the TFN model parameters using the least square technique. As an alternative to this approach, a threshold rainfall-based binary-weighted least square method was adopted to estimate the TFN model parameters. The efficacy of this binary-weighted approach in estimating the TFN model parameters was tested on 26 observation wells distributed across the Adyar River basin in Southern India. Model performance indices such as mean absolute error and coefficient of determination values showed that the proposed binary-weighted approach of fitting independent threshold-based TFN models for water level rise and water level drop scenarios considerably improves the model accuracy over other traditional TFN models.EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Fiori

Impact of sea-level rise on groundwater salinity at the development area western delta, Egypt

Climate change effects are expected to raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will increase saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. There are four scenarios for sea level rise (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), which were assumed in the year 2014 by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014). The two extreme scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) are considered in this study to examine the impact of the expected changes in the Mediterranean Sea level on groundwater salinity at a relatively new development area in Egypt at the west of the Nile Delta. Rising in sea level would destroy parts of the protective offshore sand belt, which has already been weakened by reduced sediment flows resulting from the construction of dams in the Nile. Without this sand belt, water quality in coastal freshwater lagoons will be altered, and recreational tourism and beach facilities will be inundated. The tools of Geographic information systems and Numerical simulations, using the software “ArcMap” and “FeFlow” respectively are used. The simulations are conducted in 3D using digital elevation model. For three scenarios of sea level rise (RCP2.6, RCP8.5 and the scenario of no rise in sea level), two different ways for groundwater extraction rates are considered: the first is the actual extraction rate, and the second is the extraction rate at the initial condition in the year 1990. The simulations show that the effect of global sea level rise in the period from the year 1990 up to 2100 appears clearly through the coastal topography with relatively low level elevation adjacent to the shoreline. A shift of the interface is expected up to the year 2100 by a maximum of 43km covering an area of 1980km2 according to scenario RCP2.6, and by a maximum of 57km covering an area of 2870km2 according to scenario RCP8.5. Overexploitation of groundwater leads to an increase in salinity concentration up to 5000mg/l and covers about 10% of the study area.

Absolute Surface Elevations Accuracies Assessment of Different DEMs Using Ground Truth Data Over Kingdom of Bahrain

For small islands, accurate digital elevation model (DEM) can help to understand the sea level rise prediction and scenarios impact on coastal zones, flooding risks assessment, flood inundation modelling, erosion and landslide, and environmental disaster process management. Currently, DEMs are available from several different sources using space borne systems, photogrammetry, surveying, topographic contour lines, etc. The aim of this study focuses on a comparison of absolute surface heights accuracies of four independent DEMs datasets over small island as Kingdom of Bahrain. The first two DEMs were acquired with space borne, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM-V4.1) and Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER-V2.1) with 30 m pixel size. The second two DEMs with 2.5 m (DEM-2.5) and 5 m (DEM-5) spatial resolutions were derived from two different topographic contour lines maps at scales, respectively, 1:5000 and 1:25000 using inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation method. For validation purposes, a datasets of 400 ground control points uniformly distributed over the study site were used. They were measured using a Differential Global Position System (DGPS) assuring ± 1 and ± 2 cm accuracies, respectively, for planimetry and altimetry. The obtained results show that the derived DEM-2.5 exhibit the best accuracy ± 0.55 m which is excellent by reference to the tolerance or maximum error ± 0.78 m calculated based on errors sources propagation. As well, the DEM-5 shows very good accuracy ± 1.37 m by reference to the calculated tolerance ± 1.54 m. Then, SRTM shows a satisfactory performance with ± 3.00 m accuracy which is less than the absolute vertical height accuracy (± 5.6 m) advocated by NASA for African continent and Middle-East regions. Finally, the achieved ASTER accuracy ± 8.40 m is better than the estimated error (± 17.01 m) by USGS and JAXA.

Cenarios of economic development in Belarus in the medium term taking into account the influence of external factors: Model tools and predicted results

The article deals with model tools that allow one to estimate the prospects of economic growth in Belarus in the medium term in view of external parameters dynamics. The author also presents the results predicted for three scenarios, according to the described pattern: business-as-usual scenario, the scenario of increase in active foreign debt and the scenario of rise in prices for energy sources when imported from Russia to Belarus.

Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains

This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010–2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25–1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered.Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Garcia, E.S. and Loáiciga, H.A., 2013. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 204–220.

Implications, Planning, and Design Considerations for Rising Sea Levels at the Coast

Implications, Planning, and Design Considerations for Rising Sea Levels at the Coast