Abstract
This paper presents a coastal migration index (CMI) useful for decision-making in the current scenario of sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The CMI includes coastal human population density, degree of urbanization, and coastal-flooding penetration. Quantitative and qualitative statistical techniques and the geographic information system ArcGIS View 9.0 were used. Further, a panel of fifteen international experts in coastal management issues was consulted to establish and validate the CMI. Results led to three index components based on 22 indicators. CMI was applied in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico and in Santiago de Cuba province, Cuba. According to CMI estimates, the risk levels associated with SLR for human settlements analyzed in Mexico and Cuba were 5.3% and 11.0%, respectively. The most severely affected communities will require resettlement. Meanwhile, the CMI determined that 15.8% of the Mexican territory studied will be able to withstand the effects of SLR through the management of engineering works that will protect human settlements. The CMI determined that 79.0%, in the case of Tamaulipas, as well as 89.0% of the Cuban territory, will not require new policies or guidelines to promote conservation and protection of coastal natural resources. Lastly, the method used allowed for creation of a CMI stoplight map useful to coastal decision-makers to adopt sound management actions.
Highlights
Forecasts and evidence of sea level rise (SLR) in the current era of the Anthropocene engender increased vulnerability of coastal areas around the world [1,2,3,4,5,6,7], and this paper deals with two study areas located in Mexico and Cuba.Mexico is located at the northern tip of Central America
We propose a methodology for determining a coastal migration index (CMI) based upon projected SLR values, the presence and typology of urban infrastructure, and population density
Tained from the CMI, allowing them to be classified into three classes linked to their action values presented in Appendix C and the Jenks function of ArcGis were used, which helped to determine the natural grouping inherent in the values obtained from the CMI, allowing them to be classified into three classes linked to their action recommendations, which were: REMAIN for CMI values less than 0.035; MITIGATION for CMI values greater than or equal to 0.035 and less than 0.305; and MIGRATION for MIC
Summary
Forecasts and evidence of sea level rise (SLR) in the current era of the Anthropocene engender increased vulnerability of coastal areas around the world [1,2,3,4,5,6,7], and this paper deals with two study areas located in Mexico and Cuba. Coastal flooding took place in 117 different locations in Cuba, 35 of them in the southeastern region [16,17,18], during the 1791–2018 period due to sea level rise, the impact of energetic swell waves, cold fronts, and other extreme meteorological events, e.g., hurricanes. These settlements face severe risk of flooding [19,20,26,27,28,29,30,31] Both countries are at high risk because climate change is driving sea level rise and an increase in the intensity and magnitude of extreme meteorological phenomena (e.g., hurricanes). Both threats pose a challenge to the coastal management of the two countries. While the CMI will aid in management decision-making, it alerts authorities to the need for further, more detailed studies in
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