Land Use Change Scenarios Research Articles

Mapping and Modelling of Land Use Change in Nepal

Land use changes are a common occurrence resulting from different factors in Nepal. There is a need for better understanding of the temporal and spatial change dynamics of land uses as well as their future projections. This paper assesses the land use change and its impact on carbon stocks and provides future scenarios of land use changes and their impacts on carbon stocks. The methods involved classification of medium resolution satellite image using Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) techniques, analysis of the change across three time frames,modelling the future land use, and assessment of the impacts on carbon stocks. OBIA was used for the image segmentation and image classification for the assessment of land uses present in two different periods i.e. 2010 and 1990. The classification of the images was carried out using the spectral characteristics of the Landsat images. Image indices, i.e., Vegetation Index were used for land use classification.
 The land use changes over time and space was analysed using Geographical Information System (GIS) overlaying techniques. A future scenario model was prepared using Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software. The study has focused on the land use changes and their future projection based on the potential transition of the land uses. The comparison of land use maps from 1990 to 2010 shows that the different pattern of annual land use changes in different districts such as forest areas are increasing at annual rate of 0.3 per cent in Rasuwa, 2.3 percent in Gorkha and 0.6 per cent in Chitwan. Similarly, the agricultural land is decreasing at the annual rate of 0.2 per cent in Rasuwa, 2.4 per cent in Gorkha and 0.8 per cent in Chitwan. Likewise, the future projection of land uses in all the three sites was made using the previous land use pattern and driving forces. There was a 0.1 per cent change annually in forest coveragein both Gorkha and Rasuwa whereas Chitwan showed higher rate of forest cover change of 0.2 per cent annually.

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC) will alter a basin’s hydrological processes and water balance. Quantifying their significance is imperative in formulating appropriate countermeasures and management plans. This study assesses projected changes in hydrological variables under CC and LUC scenarios to provide multi-dimensional insight into water balance relevant to an agricultural watershed in Northeast Thailand. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, and water yield) for the baseline (1981–2010) and the near-future (2021–2050) after calibrating the model. CC projections considering the CMIP6 model ensemble for the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) show the annual rainfall may not change significantly (0.5% increase compared to baseline). However, the surface runoff will likely increase by 33% due to the projected increase in rainfall intensity and extremes. The increase in urban areas due to LUC for the business as usual (BAU) scenario is also expected to boost surface runoff by 38–87%. Similarly, the LUC scenario with forest expansion will increase evapotranspiration by up to 1.3%. While CC is anticipated to raise water yield by 11%, LUC may reduce it by 6%. Under the combined scenario, the yield is expected to increase by 8%, indicating CC as the dominating driver. The results show that although CC governs the runoff from the basin, land-use change will also impact flows at a monthly scale. Importantly, soil moisture in the future will decrease (8–9%) under both stressors, which will reverberate in the basin’s agricultural livelihood and socioeconomic settings unless the appropriate adaptation measures are implemented.

Impact of land-use change on karst spring response by integration of surface processes in karst hydrology: The ISPEEKH model

Karst groundwater represents a source of freshwater for a quarter of the world's population. Modeling the hydrological behavior of karst aquifers while accounting for the spatial variability of the recharge processes and the land-use change impacts on water availability remains a challenge for karst water resources management. Therefore, this study proposes a new semi-distributed hydrological model named Integration of Surface ProcEssEs in Karst Hydrology (ISPEEKH) for simulating the surface-underground water flows in karst-dominated catchments. ISPEEKH couples the restructured version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) with a non-linear three-reservoir groundwater model that represents the epikarst and matrix-conduit flow components in a karst aquifer. ISPEEKH was applied to the Baget karst catchment (13.25 km2) in the Pyrénées mountains of southwest France, characterized by a conduit-dominated spring flow and low surface runoff. The model simulated the catchment daily discharge satisfactorily, with NSE = 0.67 and R2 = 0.68 for the 2008–2013 calibration period, and NSE = 0.65 and R2 = 0.69 for the 2014–2018 validation period. The catchment evapotranspiration and discharge amounted to 33 % and 67 % of the average annual precipitation, respectively, and nearly 80 % of the discharge was attributed to spring flow. The matrix-to-conduit flow accounted for 4–7 % of the monthly spring flow during the high-flow period (December to June), and up to 22 % during the low-flow period (July to October). ISPEEKH was then used to assess the hydrological response of the Baget catchment to land-use change scenarios of afforestation and deforestation for wood production and pasture development. Afforestation of the full catchment area did not alter the catchment hydrology significantly. Deforestation for wood production reduced annual evapotranspiration by 12–18 % and increased annual recharge by 7–8 %, resulting in annual discharge rising by 6–9 %. These changes in the water balance components were most noticeable during the low-flow season and would augment freshwater availability. Conversely, deforestation for pasture development raised annual evapotranspiration by 13–17 % while reducing annual recharge by around 7 % and discharge by 5–7 %. These changes in the hydrological components were most remarkable during the high-flow season and affected discharge below 2.5 m3.s−1.

Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon

Current large-scale patterns of land use reflect history, local traditions, and production costs, much more so than they reflect biophysical potential or global supply and demand for food and freshwater, or-more recently-climate change mitigation. We quantified alternative land-use allocations that consider trade-offs for these demands by combining a dynamic vegetation model and an optimization algorithm to determine Pareto-optimal land-use allocations under changing climate conditions in 2090-2099 and alternatively in 2033-2042. These form the outer bounds of the option space for global land-use transformation. Results show a potential to increase all three indicators (+83% in crop production, +8% in available runoff, and +3% in carbon storage globally) compared to the current land-use configuration, with clear land-use priority areas: Tropical and boreal forests were preserved, crops were produced in temperate regions, and pastures were preferentially allocated in semiarid grasslands and savannas. Transformations toward optimal land-use patterns would imply extensive reconfigurations and changes in land management, but the required annual land-use changes were nevertheless of similar magnitude as those suggested by established land-use change scenarios. The optimization results clearly show that large benefits could be achieved when land use is reconsidered under a "global supply" perspective with a regional focus that differs across the world's regions in order to achieve the supply of key ecosystem services under the emerging global pressures.

Comparison of wild honeybees in the pollination of strawberries in Bahawalpur, Pakistan

The wild honeybees, Apis dorsata Fabricius, 1793 and Apis florea Fabricius, 1787 constitute a large proportion of pollinators’ abundance on most crop species in Punjab, Pakistan. In the present study, we studied the foraging behavior of both the honeybee species and their comparative role in the reproductive performance of the strawberry at the research farm of The Islamia University of Bahawalpur. Both the species comprised 53% of the total pollinators’ abundance. Apis florea had high visitation frequency (0.449±0.03 individuals per 120 seconds) than A. dorsata (0.211±0.02). The activity of A. florea was the maximum at 12:00 pm while A. dorsata remained active in low abundance throughout the day. Apis florea exhibited a higher stay time but a lower visitation rate than A. dorsata. Apis dorsata proved to be an effective pollinator of the strawberry rather than A. florea in terms of fruit length, weight and diameter. There is a need to conserve wild honeybees under the current scenario of anthropogenic land use changes and intensification in agriculture.

Projection of further expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province

The expansion of oil palm plantations has become of global concern. Jambi province in Indonesia is one of the regions experiencing a rapid shift in land use, and oil palm plantation, settlement, and agriculture has emerged as the primary force behind this shift. This study aims to project scenarios of future land-use change and expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province in 2030, 2060, and 2100. Projections of land-use change scenarios are conducted using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in which Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) is the model base. The validation of model against historic land-use changes showed an overall kappa value of 0.97. In the no-conservation scenario assuming a continuation of the trends from 1990 to 2011, the forest area is continuing to decrease. . Oil palm would replace forest as dominant land-use cover in Jambi Province in 2100. Driving factors explaining the spatial distribution of oil palm plantation expansion include distance from forest, distance from road, and elevation. Our study shows the importance of government regulations to to slow or stop deforestation especially for forests near plantations.

Quantification of the effect of environmental changes on the brownification of Lake Kukkia in southern Finland

The browning of surface waters due to the increased terrestrial loading of dissolved organic carbon is observed across the northern hemisphere. Brownification is often explained by changes in large-scale anthropogenic pressures (including acidification, and climate and land-use changes). We quantified the effect of environmental changes on the brownification of an important lake for birds, Kukkia in southern Finland. We studied the past trends of organic carbon loading from catchments based on observations taken since the 1990s. We created hindcasting scenarios for deposition, climate and land-use change in order to simulate their quantitative effect on brownification by using process-based models. Changes in forest cuttings were shown to be the primary reason for the brownification. According to the simulations, a decrease in deposition has resulted in a slightly lower leaching of total organic carbon (TOC). In addition, runoff and TOC leaching from terrestrial areas to the lake was smaller than it would have been without the observed increasing trend in temperature by 2 °C in 25 years.

Streamflow Response to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Tropical Island Basin

The effects of climate change and of land use/cover change (LUCC) on streamflow as demonstrated by hydrological models are pressing issues on the frontiers of global environmental change research. The Nandu River Basin (NRB) as the largest of three river basins on the tropical Hainan Island, China, is subjected to an analysis of streamflow response to climate and to land-use change. It is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with climate change signals extracted from the global climate model data in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and with land-use change scenarios modeled by Cellular Automata (CA)—Markov. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Climate change contributed more to streamflow change than land-use change in the NRB, with contributions of 97.57% and 2.43%, respectively. Precipitation and temperature were the most important climate variables, contributing 92.66% and 4.91% to streamflow change. (2) In the tropical island basin from 1990 to 2015, LUCC regulated the hydrological processes in the NRB and affected hydrological processes by increasing evapotranspiration and decreasing surface runoff and subsurface flow, which resulted in decreasing streamflow. (3) Under the climate change and land-use change scenarios of the near-term period (2021–2040), the annual streamflow decreased as during the reference period (1995–2014); particularly, it decreased most (−6.16%) on the SSP126 path. These results present a case study for understanding the hydrological cycle of tropical island basins and to provide a theoretical basis for water resources management and regional sustainable development of tropical islands.

Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century.

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and landuse changescenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is howeveruncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of globalchange mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.

Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion.

Across continental Africa, more than 300 new hydropower projects are under consideration to meet the future energy demand that is expected based on the growing population and increasing energy access. Yet large uncertainties associated with hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes challenge hydropower planning. In this work, we show that only 40 to 68% of the candidate hydropower capacity in Africa is economically attractive. By analyzing the African energy systems' development from 2020 to 2050 for different scenarios of energy demand, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability, we find that wind and solar outcompete hydropower by 2030. An additional 1.8 to 4% increase in annual continental investment ensures reliability against future hydroclimatic variability. However, cooperation between countries is needed to overcome the divergent spatial distribution of investment costs and potential energy deficits.

Mapping agrobiodiversity in Europe: Different indicators, different priority areas

Agriculture plays a dual role in the conservation of European biodiversity, as extensive agricultural lands provide habitats for more than half of Europe's species, but intensification and abandonment of farmland threaten these species' habitats. Consequently, the preservation of agrobiodiversity, i.e., biodiversity on agricultural land, is increasingly the focus of conservation strategies. Agrobiodiversity is a complex and multi-dimensional concept, which begets that there currently is no consistent definition, measurement framework, or high-resolution spatial indicator that covers all facets of agrobiodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem). Furthermore, existing indicators have not been compared in terms of the areas the indicators identify as having high agrobiodiversity value. The objective of this study was, therefore, to compare four agrobiodiversity indicators, representing species and ecosystem levels of agrobiodiversity, by mapping them on extensive agricultural land in Europe and comparing them with the High Nature Value Farmland (HNVF) map. We mapped hotspots for each indicator and performed a pairwise Fuzzy Numerical map comparison. The findings show only moderate spatial similarity between indicators, where similarities mainly reflect correspondence in coldspot areas as well as low hotspot agreement with the well-established HNVF map. The results further indicate correspondence between hotspots for all indicators and HNVF on less than 1,500 km2 (or less than 0.005% of extensive European farmland). The indicators' sensitivity to land-use change scenarios was also evaluated, revealing up to ± 50% difference in scenario response, depending on the chosen indicator, which could lead to inconsistent scenario outcomes. The results of this novel study highlight the importance of clearly defining agrobiodiversity before mapping and selecting an indicator for measuring it, especially if such analysis intends to identify priority areas for policy targeting.

Gray wolf range in the western Great Lakes region under forecasted land use and climate change

AbstractLand use and climate change alter species distributions worldwide, and detecting and understanding how species ranges shift can facilitate conservation planning and action. Following extirpation from most of the contiguous United States, gray wolves (Canis lupus) have partially recolonized former range in the western Great Lakes region, but it is unknown how land use and climate change may alter amounts of wolf habitat. Using wolf observation data collected during winters 2017–2020 in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, we created ensemble models to predict how land use and climate change may affect the amount of wolf habitat within these states. A projection model for the western Great Lakes region suggested three of four scenarios of land use and climate change will lead to 9%–35% increases in wolf habitat, while a solely climate‐based projection model supported our expectation that changes in climate, in isolation, will have limited effect on current wolf range. Our results support stable or increasing amounts of wolf habitat in the western Great Lakes region during the 21st century, suggesting limited or no adverse effects on the current distribution or further recolonization of wolves. Our findings can inform policy development regarding wolf conservation and identify areas where recolonization is plausible, thus where promoting human–wolf coexistence is most pertinent.

A Modeling Approach for Analyzing the Hydrological Impacts of the Agribusiness Land-Use Scenarios in an Amazon Basin

The Xingu River Basin (XRB) in the Brazilian Amazon region has a great relevance to the development of northern Brazil because of the Belo Monte hydropower plant and its crescent agribusiness expansion. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the Lavras Simulation of the Hydrology (LASH) model to represent the main hydrological processes in the XRB and simulate the hydrological impacts in the face of land-use change scenarios. Following the trend of the most relevant agribusiness evolution in the XRB, four agribusiness scenarios (S) were structured considering the increase in grasslands (S1: 50% over the native forest; S2: 100% over the native forest) and soybean plantations (S3: 50% over the native forest; S4: 100% over native forest). Average hydrographs were simulated, and the frequency duration curves (FDC) and average annual values of the main hydrological components for each scenario were compared. The results showed that, in general, changes in land use based on deforestation in the XRB would lead to an increase in flood streamflow and a reduction in baseflow. The increases in direct surface runoff varied from 4.4% for S1 to 29.8% for S4 scenarios. The reduction in baseflow varied from −1.6% for S1 to −4.9% for S2. These changes were reduced when the entire XRB was analyzed, but notable for the sub-basins in its headwater region, where the scenarios were more effective.

Food and electricity self-sufficiency trade-offs in Reunion Island: Modelling land-use change scenarios with stakeholders

Reunion Island, a French overseas region in the Indian Ocean, has endorsed policies targeting food and electricity self-sufficiency. This objective implies balancing different land-uses (food, feed, bioelectricity, urbanisation, etc.) which we explore in a set of scenarios towards 2035. Through participatory structural analysis, we modelled drivers of change as processes using Ocelet, a spatially explicit and dynamic modelling platform. We built a detailed land-use map for our initial state and calibrated relevant processes through four scenarios ranging from “business-as-usual” to “implementation of ambitious territory planning policies”. To improve local self-sufficiency, our results support the need for large-scale land planning policies, suggesting partial sugarcane conversion into food crops, urbanisation control, farmlands expansion onto fallows and photovoltaic increase. Our context-specific approach addresses food and electricity self-sufficiency as a whole and understands its inner dynamic and spatial processes from stakeholders’ viewpoint. Moreover, our model recognizes small-scale spatial heterogeneity and contributes to mediate controversial issues related to territory foresight and land-use planning.

Edaphic and epigeic macrofauna responses to land use change in Brazil

The expansion of sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) over extensive pasture areas has been one of the primary land-use change (LUC) scenarios in central-southern Brazil. However, LUC could negatively affect soil fauna along with the multiple functions and services associated with these organisms. Numerous groups of macroinvertebrates inhabiting the soil surface (i.e., epigeic) or the soil profile (i.e., edaphic) are fundamental for litter fragmentation, soil structuring and stabilization, water infiltration, biogeochemical cycling. In this study, both the edaphic and epigeic macrofauna communities were surveyed simultaneously to assess responses induced by the expansion of sugarcane cultivation over extensive pastures and to investigate whether the magnitude of such responses to LUC differs according to the community niche (i.e., soil profile versus surface). We hypothesized that LUC to a semi-perennial crop such as sugarcane would increase the density and diversity of the edaphic macrofauna, while the epigeic community would be negatively affected by LUC due to drastic changes in surface litter. The studied areas were two sites varying in soil texture (i.e., clay versus sandy soils) each including the following land uses: i) native vegetation, ii) extensive pasture, iii) newly planted sugarcane crop (sugarcane); and iv) established sugarcane (sugarcane ratoon). To evaluate edaphic macrofauna the TSBF methodology was adopted, while pitfall traps were installed at the same sampling points to collected epigeic macrofauna. The evaluated community attributes were density, Shannon diversity index, evenness index, richness of soil macrofauna taxa, as well as the chemical and physical attributes of the soil. Linear mixed effects analysis showed that LUC affected the relative abundance of edaphic (Land use p = 0.1191 r2marginal = 0.28, r2conditional = 0.33) and epigeic (Land use p = 0.0176; r2marginal = 0.22, r2conditional = 0.32) macroinvertebrates. Both groups showed the greatest density of organisms under native vegetation. Coleoptera and earthworms were associated with pasture areas, especially in clayey soil. Response ratios of LUC effects on macrofauna showed stronger responses of the epigeic compared to edaphic macrofauna, indicating a greater sensitivity of surface-dwelling organisms and their functions to disturbances such as those caused by LUC. In general, the density and diversity of macrofauna exhibited a positive correlation with soil organic matter, microbial carbon and nitrogen, macroporosity, and total porosity, and a negative correlation with soil density (p < 0.05). Also, the conversion of pasture to sugarcane cultivation (planting) causes significant macrofauna losses, particularly, in the clay soil. The cultivation of ratoon sugarcane led to a reduction of the density, taxonomic richness, diversity, and evenness of macrofauna. Given the importance of epigeic macroinvertebrates for litter fragmentation and decomposition, these results may indicate a rapid loss of key soil functions related to decomposition and carbon and nutrient cycling following LUC.

Ecological response of an umbrella species to changing climate and land use: Habitat conservation for Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region, Southwestern China.

Climate and land use changes are increasingly recognized as major threats to global biodiversity, with significant impacts on wildlife populations and ecosystems worldwide. The study of how climate and land use changes impact wildlife is of paramount importance for advancing our understanding of ecological processes in the face of global environmental change, informing conservation planning and management, and identifying the mechanisms and thresholds that underlie species' responses to shifting climatic conditions. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is a prominent umbrella species in a biodiversity hotspot in Southwestern China, and its conservation is vital for safeguarding sympatric species. However, the extent to which this species' habitat may respond to global climate and land use changes is poorly understood, underscoring the need for further investigation. Our goal was to anticipate the potential impacts of upcoming climate and land use changes on the distribution and dispersal patterns of the Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region. We used MaxEnt modeling to evaluate habitat vulnerability using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios of climate and land use changes. Subsequently, we used Circuit Theory to identify prospective dispersal paths. Our results revealed that the current area of suitable habitat for the Asiatic black bear was 225,609.59 km2 (comprising 39.69% of the total study area), but was expected to decrease by -53.1%, -49.48%, and -28.55% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 projection scenarios, respectively. Across all three GCMs, the distribution areas and dispersal paths of the Asiatic black bear were projected to shift to higher altitudes and constrict by the 2070s. Furthermore, the results indicated that the density of dispersal paths would decrease, while the resistance to dispersal would increase across the study area. In order to protect the Asiatic black bear, it is essential to prioritize the protection of climate refugia and dispersal paths. Our findings provide a sound scientific foundation for the allocation of such protected areas in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region that are both effective and adaptive in the face of ongoing global climate and land use changes.

Patterns and controls of ecosystem service values under different land-use change scenarios in a mining-dominated basin of northern China

Exploring future land use/cover change (LULC) and ecosystem service values (ESV) dynamics is crucial for sustainable development from regional to global scales. However, ESV dynamics is significantly affected by economic development and policy changes, and future projections of ESV are generally characterized by large uncertainties due to complexity in LULC dynamics. Mining activities are supposed to exert significant effects on ESV dynamics, while the patterns and controls of ESV in mining-dominated basins are still less understood, especially under different land-use scenarios. Here, based on multi-source remote sensing data and land-use data in the Fenhe River Basin, we integrated the SD model, Markov model and PLUS model to simulate LULC in the Fenhe River Basin under four scenarios, i.e., the economic development priority (EDP), natural development priority (ND), cultivated land protection priority (CLP), and ecological protection priority (EPP). Based on ESV equivalent coefficient method and geographical detector, we further determined the patterns and controls of ESV. Results showed that construction land and cultivated land were mainly concentrated in the central parts of the basin, and grassland and woodland were concentrated in the edge area of the basin. Over the past two decades, construction land and woodland have experienced significant expansion, while the areas of grasslands and cultivated lands have declined due to mining activities. The high-value and sub-high-value areas of ESV were concentrated in woodland, grassland, reservoir and concentrated water area of mainstream and tributary. The low-value area was mainly located in the gathering area of construction land. The total ESV showed a downward trend with time, and the highest decline in the total ESV under the four land use scenarios was the EDP, while the lowest drop was the EPP. The highest contribution rate of ESV was woodland, which was equivalent to the contribution rate of cultivated land, grassland and water area, totally accounting for 58.54% of the whole ESV. The geographical detector method indicated that distance to the residential area, soil erodibility, distance to the river, soil type and annual average temperature were the main driving factors affecting the spatial patterns of ESV. Our results highlighted the fundamental role of mining activity in affecting LULC characterized by grassland and cultivated land shrinkage, and suggested that mining areas rehabilitation should be given priority in terms of further improving ESV in mining-dominated basins.

Modeling alternative future scenarios for direct application in land use and conservation planning

AbstractLand use is one of the largest threats to biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services. These losses can be mitigated through strategic land use planning efforts that balance the social, economic, and environmental needs of society and the ecosystems that support it. A crucial component in the development of strategic plans is a concrete understanding of land use change and the impacts and influence of it on the landscape. Land change models are one method for quantifying the effect of these relationships and projecting the resulting changes on landscapes of the future. However, in order for the resulting model products to be useful to planners, policy makers, and conservationists, they must be focused on addressing questions of relevance to the community they intend to serve. Scenario planning offers a framework for integrating community‐developed visions of the future with land change models in order to increase relevancy and uptake of products. We developed a land change model for five future scenarios of land use change in northwestern Virginia, integrating regional stakeholder knowledge throughout the process. Across scenarios, we found consistent increases in development across our study area, but the form and configuration of land use types varied sub‐regionally. This manuscript describes not only our results, but the process of integrating stakeholder input throughout. We describe our model outputs in the context of usefulness for planners, policy makers, and conservation decision makers, often through the lens of the importance of geographic scale. This work serves as an additional example of land use modeling across scenarios. We conclude with guidance for scientists interested in integrating similar approaches in their work.

Spatiotemporal foresting of soil erosion for SSP-RCP scenarios considering local vegetation restoration project: A case study in the three gorges reservoir (TGR) area, China

Soil erosion is a common form of land degradation. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides a scenario framework for global socio-economic development and climate change by combining Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The soil erosion estimation under global climate change and land-use change scenarios provided by CMIP6 is valuable for representing future changes and hotspots. This study estimated the future changes in soil erosion in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area, China, which has suffered severe soil loss over an extended period, and vegetation restoration projects have been conducted since 1999. The scenarios provided by SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 were coupled with the scenarios of regional vegetation restoration projects to reflect future land use changes (LUC) and climate change. The results showed that future soil erosion from 2020 to 2100 in the TGR area will experience a non-significant decreasing trend (with trend slopes of −0.013, −0.020, and-0.006 in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, with p > 0.05). However, with the R factors calculated by different methods, this decreasing trend becomes either insignificant or a significant increasing trend. SSP1-2.6 will experience the lowest soil erosion in 2100 owing to the large amount of forest increase in this scenario. Furthermore, as estimates, the grain-for-green policy (GGP) will reduce 89353.47, 92737.73 and 42916.52 ton soil erosion per year in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-8.5 by 2100, respectively. In the future, the GGP will become increasingly important for controlling soil loss in the TGR area owing to the increasing precipitation in all scenarios, which increases the risk of soil loss.

Research on the Change in Prediction of Water Production in Urban Agglomerations on the Northern Slopes of the Tianshan Mountains Based on the InVEST–PLUS Model

Assessing how land use change will affect water production ecosystem services is essential to developing sound water resource management and ecosystem conservation. The results of a coordination analysis of land-use intensity and water yield based on future land-use simulation projections are useful for future land-use planning. To effectively assess water production rates, the PLUS and InVEST models were used to dynamically assess the changes in water production occurring in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2030 under different scenarios of land-use change. The results show that the water-production rates in the study area from 2000 to 2020 were 517.26 × 106 m3, 582.28 × 106 m3, and 456 × 106 m3, showing an increasing and then decreasing trend, with the water production function decreasing from the foothills of the Tianshan Mountains to the north and south, with values of 509.10 × 106 m33, 510.90 × 106 m3, and 502.28 × 106 m3 being presented for the three scenarios in 2030. The rapid economic development scenario presents the lowest water yield values and the ecological conservation development scenario presents the highest water yield values. Changes in water production rates are closely related to changes in land use, which can be verified further by an analysis of the coordination between land- use intensity and water production. For this study area, the ecological conservation development scenario may be more in line with the future urban development pattern, and the results of the present study can provide some scientific references for land-use planning.