Global Change Scenarios Research Articles

Foundational Aspects for Incorporating Dependencies in Copula-Based Bayesian Networks Using Structured Expert Judgments, Exemplified by the Ice Sheet–Sea Level Rise Elicitation

The work presented here marks a further advance in expert uncertainty quantification. In a recent probabilistic evaluation of ice sheet process contributions to sea level rise, tail dependence was elicited and propagated through an uncertainty analysis for the first time. The elicited correlations and tail dependencies concerned pairings of three processes: Accumulation, Discharge and Run-off, which operate on major ice sheets in the West and East Antarctic and in Greenland. The elicitation enumerated dependencies between these processes under selected global temperature change scenarios over different future time horizons. These expert judgments allowed us to populate a Paired Copula Bayesian network model to obtain the estimated contributions of these ice sheets for future sea level rise. Including positive central tendency dependence and tail dependence increases the fatness of the upper tails of projected sea level rise distributions, an amplification important for designing and evaluating possible mitigation strategies. Detailing and jointly computing distributional dependencies and tail dependencies can be crucial components of good practice for assessing the influence of uncertainties on extreme values when modelling stochastic multifactorial processes.

Depth-dependent effects of forest diversification on soil functionality and microbial community characteristics in subtropical forests

Soil microbes are critical to the maintenance of forest ecosystem function and stability. Forest diversification, such as monocultures versus mixed forests stands, can strongly influence microbial community patterns and processes, as well as their role in soil ecosystem multifunctionality, such as in subtropical forest ecosystems. However, less is known about these patterns and processes vary with soil depth. Here, we investigated the results of an eight-year forest diversification field experiment comparing the soil ecosystem multifunctionality, bacterial and fungal community assembly, and network patterns in mixed versus monoculture plantations along vertical profiles (0–80 cm depth) in a subtropical region. We found that the introduction of broadleaf trees in coniferous monocultures led to enhanced synergies between multiple functions, thus improving soil multifunctionality. The effects of mixed plantations on the functional potential in top soils were greater than in deep soils, especially for carbon degradation genes (apu, xylA, cex, and glx). Microbial community assembly in the top layer, particularly in mixed plantations, was dominated by stochastic processes, whereas deterministic were more important in the deep layer. Soil microbial network complexity and stability were higher in the top layer of mixed plantations, but in the deep layer was monoculture. Interestingly, the changes in microbial communities and multifunctionality in the top layer were mainly related to variation in nutrients, whereas those in the deep were more influenced by soil moisture. Overall, we reveal positive effects of mixed forest stands on soil microbial characteristics and functionality compared to that of monocultures. Our findings highlighted the importance of enhancing functional diversity through the promotion of tree species diversity, and managers can better develop forest management strategies to promote soil health under global change scenarios.

Single and combined effects of metal-based fungicides on Eisenia andrei in different scenarios of climatic change.

This study evaluated the ecotoxicity of metal-based fungicides under the current scenarios of global climatic change (20°C and 25°C) and moisture content (30% and 50%) in single and binary mixtures of copper oxychloride (CuOx) [200, 500 and 1000mg/kg] and mancozeb (MnZn) [44, 850 and 1250mg/kg]. Endpoints assessed included mortality, changes in biomass, avoidance behaviour, and reproduction utilising standardised protocols (ISO and OECD). The changes in biomass and mortality tests lasted 28days, followed by a 28-day reproduction test and a two-day avoidance test. In all temperature-moisture combinations, the mortality rate in the exposure groups exceeded 10% only in the CuOx1000 and CuOx1000 + MnZn1250 mg/kg groups. However, at 20°C and 30% moisture, the mortality rate exceeded 10% only in the CuOx500 + MnZn850 mg/kg treatment. Relative growth rates in the CuOx and MnZn treatment groups decreased with increasing concentrations. In CuOx MnZn and the binary mixture treatments at 20°C 30% and 25°C 50% conditions, avoidance response behaviour was greater than 80% throughout the exposure, except in CuOx200 mg/kg, MnZn44 mg/kg and CuOx200 + MnZn44 mg/kg. The reproduction of exposed earthworms in all treatment groups was concentration-dependent and influenced by varying temperatures and soil moisture conditions. No juveniles or cocoons were produced in the CuOx1000 mg/kg treatment at 25°C 30%, indicating that copper oxychloride may be more toxic than mancozeb, especially in drought conditions. This study found that different temperatures and soil moisture levels altered the ecotoxicity of CuOx and MnZn. It can be concluded that climate change is likely to significantly impact the outcomes of metals to earthworms and their ecological activities.

How to measure outcomes in forest restoration? A European review of success and failure indicators

Restoration involves the recovery and repair of environments because environmental damage is not always irreversible, and communities are not infinitely resilient to such harm. When restoration projects are applied to nature, either directly or indirectly these may take the form of ecological, forestry or hydrological restoration, for example. In the current scenario of global climate change and increasing intensity of disturbances the importance of restoration in all types of ecosystems in order to adapt to the new conditions (so called prestoration) is evident. Whatever the objective of the restoration initiative, there is a lack of consensus as regards common indicators to evaluate the success or failure of the different initiatives implemented. In this study, we have carried out an extensive meta-analysis review of scientific papers aiming to evaluate the outcomes of restoration projects. We have done a review and selected 95 studies implemented in Europe. We explored the main pre-restoration land cover in which restoration initiatives have been implemented, the main causes of degradation, the objective of the restoration action and the indicators selected to analyze the success or failure of the action. We identified a total of 84 indicators in the analyzed papers and compared with the ones proposed for forest in the recent Nature Restoration Law. The analysis revealed five indicators commonly used for the evaluation of restoration initiatives (abundance, coverage, density, Ellenberg indicator, and richness), even where the initial objective has not yet been achieved. Our findings underscore both the benefits and challenges associated with a specific set of harmonized indicators for evaluating the success or failure of restoration initiatives.

An integrated fast-slow plant and nematode economics spectrum predicts soil organic carbon dynamics during natural restoration.

Aboveground and belowground attributes of terrestrial ecosystems interact to shape carbon (C) cycling. However, plants and soil organisms are usually studied separately, leading to a knowledge gap regarding their coordinated contributions to ecosystem C cycling. We explored whether integrated consideration of plant and nematode traits better explained soil organic C (SOC) dynamics than plant or nematode traits considered separately. Our study system was a space-for-time natural restoration chronosequence following agricultural abandonment in a subtropical region, with pioneer, early, mid and climax stages. We identified an integrated fast-slow trait spectrum encompassing plants and nematodes, demonstrating coordinated shifts from fast strategies in the pioneer stage to slow strategies in the climax stage, corresponding to enhanced SOC dynamics. Joint consideration of plant and nematode traits explained more variation in SOC than by either group alone. Structural equation modeling revealed that the integrated fast-slow trait spectrum influenced SOC through its regulation of microbial traits, including microbial C use efficiency and microbial biomass. Our findings confirm the pivotal role of plant-nematode trait coordination in modulating ecosystem C cycling and highlight the value of incorporating belowground traits into biogeochemical cycling under global change scenarios.

Resolving the Intricate Effects of Multiple Global Change Drivers on Root Litter Decomposition.

Plant roots represent about a quarter of global plant biomass and constitute a primary source of soil organic carbon (C). Yet, considerable uncertainty persists regarding root litter decomposition and their responses to global change factors (GCFs). Much of this uncertainty stems from a limited understanding of the multifactorial effects of GCFs and it remains unclear how these effects are mediated by litter quality, soil conditions and microbial functionality. Using complementary field decomposition and laboratory incubation approaches, we assessed the relative controls of GCF-mediated changes in root litter traits and soil and microbial properties on fine-root decomposition under warming, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and precipitation alteration. We found that warming and N enrichment accelerated fine-root decomposition by over 10%, and their combination showed an additive effect, while precipitation reduction suppressed decomposition overall by 12%, with the suppressive effect being most significant under warming-alone and N enrichment-alone conditions. Significantly, changes in litter quality played a dominant role and accelerated fine-root decomposition by 15% ~ 18% under warming and N enrichment, while changes in soil and microbial properties were predominant and reduced decomposition by 7% ~ 10% under precipitation reduction and the combined warming and N enrichment. Examining only the decomposition environment or litter properties in isolation can distort global change effects on root decomposition, underestimating precipitation reduction impacts by 38% and overstating warming and N effects by up to 73%. These findings highlight that the net impact of GCFs on root litter decomposition hinges on the interplay between GCF-modulated root decomposability and decomposition environment, as well as on the synergistic or antagonistic relationships among GCFs themselves. Our study emphasizes that integrating the legacy effects of multiple GCFs on root traits, soil conditions and microbial functionality would improve our prediction of C and nutrient cycling under interactive global change scenarios.

Impact of ocean warming on early development of the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis: Effects on larval susceptibility to potential vibrio pathogens

In a global change scenario, ocean warming and pathogen infection can occur simultaneously in coastal areas, threatening marine species. Data are shown on the impact of temperature on early larvae of the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. Increasing temperatures (18-20-22 °C) altered larval phenotypes at 48 hpf and affected gene expression from eggs to 24 and 48 hpf, with shell biogenesis related genes among the most affected. The effects of temperature on larval susceptibility to infection were evaluated using Vibrio coralliilyticus, a coral pathogen increasingly associated with bivalve mortalities, whose ecology is affected by global warming. Malformations and mortalities at 48 hpf were observed at higher temperature and vibrio concentrations, with interactive effects. In non-lethal conditions, interactions on gene expression at 24 and 48 hpf were also detected. Although temperature is the main environmental driver affecting M. galloprovincialis early larvae, warming may increase the susceptibility to vibrio infection, with consequences on mussel populations.

Grazing legacy mediates the diverse responses of grassland multidimensional stability to resource enrichment

Long-term grazing and resource enrichment are known to affect grassland ecosystem stability independently. However, the interactive effects of grazing legacy and resource enrichment on ecosystem multidimensional stability (e.g., temporal stability (TS): the degree of constancy of ecosystem components over time and temporal resistance (TR): the ability of ecosystem components to withstand the environmental change) in grassland ecosystems remain underexplored. In this study, we conducted a field manipulation experiment to assess the impact of 4-yr of resource addition (water and nitrogen) on multidimensional stability of multiple ecosystem components and underlying drivers in Inner Mongolia steppe with 7-yr different experimental grazing history. We found that the positive effects of water + nitrogen addition on multifunctional TS increased with increasing grazing intensity and an opposing trend was observed for multifunctional TR response. However, neither grazing legacy nor resource addition had an effect on community compositional stability. Resource addition enhanced the stability of species evenness, CWM (community weighted mean) species biomass and CWM-traits. Furthermore, water + nitrogen additions stimulated soil temperature TS but reduced its TR in heavy grazing intensity, with high grazing intensity bolstering soil moisture stability. Multifunctional stability was primarily governed by species asynchrony, while stability of species evenness fostered compositional stability. In particular, TS of functional diversity enhanced multifunctional TS in light grazing intensity, while TS of CWM-traits promoted multifunctional TS in heavy grazing intensity. Our study underscores the decoupling responses of functional stability and compositional stability to grazing legacy combined with resource enrichment. These findings highlight that the significance of concurrently considering multiple stability dimensions and components for a comprehensive understanding of grassland ecosystem stability under intensifying land use and global change scenarios.

Addressing the limitation of Operational Flexibility in Power Generation with Pumped Hydro Energy Storage System – Indian Perspective

The global climate change scenario has impacted and taken corrective measures in shifting the sourcing of primary energy and efficient end-use pattern with more focus to utilise renewable energy resources to replace the depleting fossil fuels. Electric power generation capacity in the Indian subcontinent has gradually been improved to substantially contribute to intermittent and variable renewable power generation mix up to 40% of grid demand. However, the injection of grid-integrated renewable power as per the availability of generation potential will necessitate limiting the power generation from generating plants running on fossil fuel. But the operational flexibility of fossil fuel power plants is mostly designed to run efficiently with a 55% minimum technical load on the machines. In the above situation, stable grid availability and operation with a desirable spinning reserve may be taken care of suitably with an on-grid energy storage system, and in the Indian context, a pumped hydro energy storage system may play a critical role to take care of grid operational variability with adequate measures on frequency and voltage correction through periodic power generation and power draw. In this paper, the feasibility of a pumped hydro storage system from an Indian power sector perspective has been reviewed about the present national power scenario.

Predicted community consequences of spatially explicit global change-induced processes on plant-insect networks.

Plant-insect trophic systems should be particularly sensitive to processes altering species spatial co-occurrences, as impacts on one level can cascade effectively through the strong trophic reliance to the other level. Here, we predicted the biogeography of Lepidoptera-plant communities under global-change scenarios, exploiting spatially resolved data on 423 Lepidoptera species and their 848 food plants across the German state of Baden-Württemberg (ca. 36,000 km2). We performed simulations of plant extinction and Lepidoptera expansion, and respectively assessed their cascading consequences-namely secondary extinction of Lepidoptera and change in functional distance of plants-on the interaction networks. Importantly, the simulations were spatially explicit, as we accounted for realistic landscape contexts of both processes: Plant extinctions were simulated as "regional" (a species goes extinct in the whole region at once) vs. "isolation-driven" (a species gradually goes extinct from the peripheral or isolated localities according to its real regional distribution); Lepidoptera expansions were simulated with random, northward, and upward directions according to real topography. The consequences were assessed based on empirical community composition and trophic relationships. When evaluated by regional richness, the robustness of Lepidoptera assemblages against secondary extinctions was higher under isolation-driven plant extinctions than regional plant extinction; however, this relationship was reversed when evaluated by averaged local richness. Also, with isolation-driven plant extinctions, Lepidoptera at the central sub-region of Baden-Württemberg appeared to be especially vulnerable. With Lepidoptera expansions, plants' functional distances in local communities dropped, indicating a possible increase of competition among plants, yet to a lesser extent particularly with upward movements. Together, our results suggested that the communities' composition context at the landscape scale (i.e., how communities, with respective species composition, are arranged within the landscape) matters when assessing global-change influences on interaction systems; spatially explicit consideration of such context can reveal localised consequences that are not necessarily captured via a spatially implicit, regional perspective.

Widespread scope for coral adaptation under combined ocean warming and acidification.

Reef-building coral populations are at serious risk of collapse due to the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification. Nonetheless, many corals show potential to adapt to the changing ocean conditions. Here we examine the broad sense heritability (H2) of coral calcification rates across an ecologically and phylogenetically diverse sampling of eight of the primary reef-building corals across the Indo-Pacific. We show that all eight species exhibit relatively high heritability of calcification rates under combined warming and acidification (0.23-0.56). Furthermore, tolerance to each factor is positively correlated and the two factors do not interact in most of the species, contrary to the idea of trade-offs between temperature and pH sensitivity, and all eight species can co-evolve tolerance to elevated temperature and reduced pH. Using these values together with historical data, we estimate potential increases in thermal tolerance of 1.0-1.7°C over the next 50 years, depending on species. None of these species are probably capable of keeping up with a high global change scenario and climate change mitigation is essential if reefs are to persist. Such estimates are critical for our understanding of how corals may respond to global change, accurately parametrizing modelled responses, and predicting rapid evolution.

Balancing livestock production and environmental outcomes in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under global change

Abstract Livestock production is an integral part of the global food system and the livelihoods of local people, but it also raises questions of environmental sustainability due to issues such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity decline, land degradation, and water use. Further challenges to extensive livestock systems may arise from changes in climate and the global economy (particularly variation in prices for livestock and carbon). However, significant potential exists for both mitigating these impacts and adapting to change via altering stocking rates, managing fire, and supplementing cattle diets to reduce methane emissions. We developed an integrated, spatio-temporal modelling approach to assess the effectiveness of these options for land management in northern Australia’s tropical savanna under different global change scenarios. Performance was measured against a range of sustainability indicators, including environmental (GHG emissions, biodiversity, water intake, and land condition) and agricultural (profit, beef production) outcomes. Our model shows that maintaining historical stocking rates is not environmentally sustainable due to the accelerated land degradation exacerbated by a changing climate. However, planned early dry season burning substantially reduced emissions, and in our simulations was profitable under all global change scenarios that included a carbon price. Overall, the balance between production and environmental outcomes could be improved by stocking below modelled carrying capacity and implementing fire management. This management scenario was the most profitable (more than double the profit from maintaining historical stocking rates), prevented land degradation, and reduced GHG emissions by 23%. By integrating the cumulative impacts of climate change, external economic drivers, and management actions across a range of sustainability indicators, we show that the future of rangelands in Australia’s savannas has the potential to balance livestock production and environmental outcomes.

Editorial: Soil carbon stability in forests in response to global change scenarios

Editorial: Soil carbon stability in forests in response to global change scenarios

Elevated CO2 and Nitrogen Supply Boost N Use Efficiency and Wheat (T. aestivum cv. Yunmai) Growth and Differentiate Soil Microbial Communities Related to Ammonia Oxidization.

Elevated CO2 levels (eCO2) pose challenges to wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth, potentially leading to a decline in quality and productivity. This study addresses the effects of two ambient CO2 concentrations (aCO2, daytime/nighttime = 410/450 ± 30 ppm and eCO2, 550/600 ± 30 ppm) and two nitrogen (N) supplements (without N supply-N0 and with 100 mg N supply as urea per kg soil-N100) on wheat (T. aestivum cv. Yunmai) growth, N accumulation, and soil microbial communities related to ammonia oxidization. The data showed that the N supply effectively mitigated the negative impacts of eCO2 on wheat growth by reducing intercellular CO2 concentrations while enhancing photosynthesis parameters. Notably, the N supply significantly increased N concentrations in wheat tissues and biomass production, thereby boosting N accumulation in seeds, shoots, and roots. eCO2 increased the agronomic efficiency of applied N (AEN) and the physiological efficiency of applied N (PEN) under N supply. Plant tissue N concentrations and accumulations are positively related to plant biomass production and soil NO3--N. Additionally, the N supply increased the richness and evenness of the soil microbial community, particularly Nitrososphaeraceae, Nitrosospira, and Nitrosomonas, which responded differently to N availability under both aCO2 and eCO2. These results underscore the importance and complexity of optimizing N supply and eCO2 for enhancing crop tissue N accumulation and yield production as well as activating nitrification-related microbial activities for soil inorganic N availability under future global environment change scenarios.

Will fire-smart landscape management buffer the effects of climate and land-use changes on fire regimes?

BackgroundLong-term farmland abandonment has increased fuel build-up in many Euro-Mediterranean mountainous regions. The high fuel hazard in these landscapes, combined with ongoing climate change, is increasing the frequency of extreme wildfires, thus altering contemporary fire regimes. Mitigating the loss of the landscape’s capacity to regulate large and intense fires is crucial to prevent future harmful effects of fires. As such, effective strategies to manage these fire-prone landscapes are needed. Yet, further understanding of their performance under global change scenarios is required. This study assessed the effects of fire-smart management strategies on future landscape dynamics, fire regulation capacity (FRC), and fire regime in a Mediterranean fire-prone mountainous landscape in Portugal (30,650 ha) undergoing long-term land abandonment and climate change scenarios. For that, we applied the LANDIS-II model under climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and long-term farmland abandonment (2020–2050) according to three fire-smart management strategies focused on fire prevention compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) strategy based on fire suppression.ResultsFuture fire activity and land dynamics resulted in changes that fostered landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation and favoured fire-adapted forests and agroforestry systems while decreasing the dominance of shrublands and croplands. FRC decreased over time, particularly under RCP 8.5 and the BAU strategy. In turn, fire-smart strategies better prevented large and intense fires than the BAU strategy, but their effectiveness decreased under RCP 8.5. The loss of FRC resulted in increased burned area and fire frequency, which predicts a shift from contemporary fire regimes but more markedly under RCP 8.5 and in the BAU strategy.ConclusionsFire-smart strategies outperformed BAU in averting current fire regime intensification. Merging forest- and silvopasture-based management is the most promising approach in taming the effects of climate and farmland abandonment on future fire activity. Our study underlines that planning and management policies in fire-prone Mediterranean mountain landscapes must integrate fire-smart strategies to decrease landscape fuel hazard and buffer the impact of global change on future fire regimes.

Investigating intraspecific variability in the biological responses of sea urchins (Paracentrotus lividus) to seawater acidification

Alterations in seawater chemistry posed by acidification may lead to immunological and antioxidant defence impairment in sea urchins, with differences among local populations. Here, we analyzed the effects of reduced pH on Paracentrotus lividus, with a multibiomarker approach, and the possible intraspecific variations in sea urchin responses. Two groups of animals with different ecological histories (i.e., the pattern of environmental characteristics and pressures experienced throughout the organism’s lifetime) were maintained at ambient pH and pH reduced of 0.4 units for 8 months. Changes in gonadosomatic index (GSI), immunological, and oxidative stress biomarkers were assessed in coelomic fluid, gonads, and digestive tract. Animals maintained at reduced pH showed limited impact of seawater acidification compared to the ambient pH condition. However, sea urchins from the two sites were differently influenced by the seawater pH (as shown by multivariate analyses). GSI and immunological and antioxidant status were differentially modulated between the two sexes, with generally higher values in females, but differences between sexes in relation to the pH of exposure were limited. Overall, our findings highlight that the impact of environmental stressors may differ in sea urchins from different locations. This has implications for the maintenance of P. lividus wild populations under future global change scenarios.

Salinity Stress Acclimation Strategies in Chlamydomonas sp. Revealed by Physiological, Morphological and Transcriptomic Approaches.

Climate changes may include variations in salinity concentrations at sea by changing ocean dynamics. These variations may be especially challenging for marine photosynthetic organisms, affecting their growth and distribution. Chlamydomonas spp. are ubiquitous and are often found in extreme salinity conditions. For this reason, they are considered good model species to study salinity adaptation strategies. In the current study, we used an integrated approach to study the Chlamydomonas sp. CCMP225 response to salinities of 20‱ and 70‱, by combining physiological, morphological, and transcriptomic analyses, and comparing differentially expressed genes in the exponential and stationary growth phases under the two salinity conditions. The results showed that the strain is able to grow under all tested salinity conditions and maintains a surprisingly high photosynthetic efficiency even under high salinities. However, at the highest salinity condition, the cells lose their flagella. The transcriptomic analysis highlighted the up- or down-regulation of specific gene categories, helping to identify key genes responding to salinity stress. Overall, the findings may be of interest to the marine biology, ecology, and biotechnology communities, to better understand species adaptation mechanisms under possible global change scenarios and the potential activation of enzymes involved in the synthesis of bioactive molecules.

Effect of Nitrogen Application Rate on the Relationships between Multidimensional Plant Diversity and Ecosystem Production in a Temperate Steppe.

Nitrogen (N) deposition, as one of the global change drivers, can alter terrestrial plant diversity and ecosystem function. However, the response of the plant diversity-ecosystem function relationship to N deposition remains unclear. On one hand, in the previous studies, taxonomic diversity (i.e., species richness, SR) was solely considered the common metric of plant diversity, compared to other diversity metrics such as phylogenetic and functional diversity. On the other hand, most previous studies simulating N deposition only included two levels of control versus N enrichment. How various N deposition rates affect multidimensional plant diversity-ecosystem function relationships is poorly understood. Here, a field manipulative experiment with a N addition gradient (0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 g N m-2 yr-1) was carried out to examine the effects of N addition rates on the relationships between plant diversity metrics (taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity) and ecosystem production in a temperate steppe. Production initially increased and reached the maximum value at the N addition rate of 47 g m-2 yr-1, then decreased along the N-addition gradient in the steppe. SR, functional diversity calculated using plant height (FDis-Height) and leaf chlorophyll content (FDis-Chlorophyll), and phylogenetic diversity (net relatedness index, NRI) were reduced, whereas community-weighted means of plant height (CWMHeight) and leaf chlorophyll content (CWMChlorophyll) were enhanced by N addition. N addition did not affect the relationships of SR, NRI, and FDis-Height with production but significantly affected the strength of the correlation between FDis-Chlorophyll, CWMHeight, and CWMChlorophyll with biomass production across the eight levels of N addition. The findings indicate the robust relationships of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and production and the varying correlations between functional diversity and production under increased N deposition in the temperate steppe, highlighting the importance of a trait-based approach in studying the plant diversity-ecosystem function under global change scenarios.

Welcome to the forest theatre: Unveiling a Balkan refugium through paleoart

This paper presents an artistic paleolandscape experiment based primarily on recent palynological data from the Paleolithic site of Pešturina, in the Central Balkans of Serbia. These data are integrated into the general knowledge of flora and vegetation changes in the Balkans and southern Carpathians obtained through other paleobotanical sequences, especially pollen records from lake sediments. The paleoartistic proposal includes several drawing attempts at different geographic scales with an emphasis on plant taxa and their position within glacial refugia. The contrast with the interglacial situation is also illustrated, but the work especially focuses on the concept of long-term refugia and the altitudinal shifts of steppes, conifers, and broad-leaf trees. An ecological and biogeographical discussion accompanies the illustrations, highlighting the insurmountable methodological limitations and the challenges that pose obstacles to the progress of palynology as a technique for paleoenvironmental reconstruction at the spatial scale. The structure of the paper aims to serve as a guiding example for the teaching and scientific dissemination of paleosciences, from a conservationist perspective that is much needed in the current scenario of global change and biodiversity crisis.

Influence of Temperature and Water Availability on Seed Germination of Cicer Milkvetch (Astragulus Cicer L.) and Purple Prairie Clover (Dalea Purpurea Vent. Var. Pupurea)

Global warming may leads a decrease in plant diversity and increased risk for some plant extinction does exist. The effect of temperature and water availability on seed germination were investigated in many plants, and are two of the most important factors on seed germination, for the plant survival that can result in a loss or increase under global climate change scenarios, by affecting a plant's recruitment success. Therefore, research on how climate change affects seed germination is essential for our research and ability to predict the risk for plants. To examine the possible effect of climate change on two commonly grown legumes a greenhouse experiment was run at at AAFC-SPARC. One was an introduced legume, cicer milkvetch, and the other a native legume, purple prairie clover. Our findings were: the experiment with warmer temperature and decreased soil moisture to research seed germination, the result is that reduction in the total both seed germination rate occurs, and showed the seed germination of purple prairie clover is better for the more stressful temperatures and water potentials examined in this experiment. For both legumes were examined on the control water potential the best temperature range is from 20℃ to 30℃ .