Widespread scope for coral adaptation under combined ocean warming and acidification.

Abstract

Reef-building coral populations are at serious risk of collapse due to the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification. Nonetheless, many corals show potential to adapt to the changing ocean conditions. Here we examine the broad sense heritability (H2) of coral calcification rates across an ecologically and phylogenetically diverse sampling of eight of the primary reef-building corals across the Indo-Pacific. We show that all eight species exhibit relatively high heritability of calcification rates under combined warming and acidification (0.23-0.56). Furthermore, tolerance to each factor is positively correlated and the two factors do not interact in most of the species, contrary to the idea of trade-offs between temperature and pH sensitivity, and all eight species can co-evolve tolerance to elevated temperature and reduced pH. Using these values together with historical data, we estimate potential increases in thermal tolerance of 1.0-1.7°C over the next 50 years, depending on species. None of these species are probably capable of keeping up with a high global change scenario and climate change mitigation is essential if reefs are to persist. Such estimates are critical for our understanding of how corals may respond to global change, accurately parametrizing modelled responses, and predicting rapid evolution.