Scenario-based Simulations Research Articles

Evaluating the impact of scenario-based online simulations on cognitive load, self-efficacy, and skill transfer in nursing education

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the imperative for efficacious online instructional designs that could function as viable alternatives to conventional, hands-on clinical training for nursing students. This study, conducted at a university in South Texas, employed an online innovation project to simulate clinical experiences. We posited that customized online learning simulations could mitigate cognitive load and augment virtual learners' self-efficacy, thereby influencing associative information processing. Our analyses centered on participants' learning experiences, cognitive load, and the ramifications on their self-efficacy and motivation in a virtual setting. Data indicated that the skills acquired were applicable in real-world clinical settings, and participants reported high levels of instructional support and low frustration levels.

‘Step up’: utilising simulation to assist in the transition from medical senior house officer to registrar

Core medical training was replaced by Internal Medicine Training (IMT) in August 2019. One of the more notable changes was the introduction of a 3 We created an in-person teaching day, entitled ‘Step up’, which consisted of four 20-minute, IM3 specific, high-fidelity scenario-based simulations. In each scenario, a computerised full-body manikin (SimMan Essential) was used. The manikin could be programmed to provide physiological response to scenario participants’ actions. The participants were each tasked to assess an acutely deteriorating patient (the manikin), whilst managing a demanding bleep to add realistic distractions and human factor issues to the scenario. Each participant completed one scenario and watched their peers complete the others from a separate room. Following this, participants were debriefed by qualified member of staff and then taught by a speciality registrar or consultant. Feedback forms were collected. The participants were tasked to rate the simulation day, using a nominal Likert scale from 1 to 10, for usefulness, relevance, clarity, and overall quality. 1 represented strong disagreement and 10 strong agreements with a particular domain. Across 4 full days, we had 11 IM3 doctors take part in the ‘step up’ scenario-based simulations. 9 of the 11 participants completed feedback forms. Scores ranged from 8 to 10. Median scores for all domains were 10. We have demonstrated that ‘step up’ scenarios are a useful and relevant aid for those transitioning into IM3. Further research utilising comparative data will provide more meaningful conclusions. We will be repeating the simulation programme for the next cohort. We will have baseline, one and three-month follow up questionnaires to assess these scenarios further. 1. Buist N, Webster CS. Simulation training to improve the ability of first-year doctors to assess and manage deteriorating patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Medical Science Educator. 2019;29(3):749–761.

The effectiveness of scenario-based virtual laboratory simulations to improve learning outcomes and scientific report writing skills.

The use of virtual laboratory simulations in various disciplines, which provide important educational benefits, has increased. Several studies show that laboratory activities, including scenario-based virtual laboratory simulation (SB-VLS), stimulate cognitive and non-cognitive skills. However, the effects of the SB-VLS when integrated into molecular biology courses, on the development of cognitive skills, such as scientific report writing skills, remain unexplored. A pre-post-test, randomized, quasi-experimental design was used. Thirty-five female students were randomly assigned to experimental or control groups. The control group (n = 17) attended a traditional lecture and video lab demonstration (VLD), while the experimental group (n = 18) participated in SB-VLS on molecular cloning. Findings revealed statistically significant differences, with large effects sizes in the SB-VLS group between pre- and post-test in intrinsic motivation (2.9 vs 3.86, p = 0.042, Cohen's d = 4.17), self-efficacy (3.31 vs 3.85, p = 0.002, Cohen's d = 1.071), and knowledge gain scales (50.93 vs 75.93, p = 0.001, Cohen's d = 1.46). Moreover, between-group effect sizes of the experimental and control groups were also large for intrinsic motivation (dppc2 = 1.441), self-efficacy (dppc2 = 0.766), and knowledge (dppc2 = 1.147), indicating that the effect of the SB-VLS was significant, which may be due to the activities and techniques used in SB-VLS to develop learning outcomes. Additionally, the SB-VLS group had statistically better lab report scores as compared to the control group (3.92 vs. 4.72, p < 0.0001). Collectively, our data show that SB-VLS is an innovative teaching strategy and an effective tool for developing non-cognitive and cognitive skills, especially scientific report writing skills.

Numerical modelling of hydraulic efficiency and pollution transport in waste stabilization ponds

This paper investigates the hydraulic performance and solute transport processes in waste stabilization ponds (WSPs). A numerical model comprised of Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) flow hydrodynamic model with the standard k − ε turbulence closure coupled with the advection-diffusion solute transport model, is developed in a three-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system. The proposed numerical model is successfully validated against laboratory-scale physical modelling measurements of flow hydrodynamics and solute characteristics across trapezoidal pond geometry. The developed numerical model is adopted to run series of scenario-based simulations to investigate the effects of WSP's geometrical features and implementation of an island retrofitting on the hydraulic performance and treatment efficiency of the WSPs. Fifteen pond configurations with varying side-walls slope and island configurations are simulated. Vertical and horizontal structures of flow hydrodynamics across the pond are investigated. Solute transport processes are studied through determining residence time distribution (RTDs) curves based on numerical tracer simulations. Two deflector island configurations (parallel and rotated) are simulated to investigate their influence on enhancing the hydraulic performance of the WSP. The analysis of the numerical results indicates an overall positive impact of deflector island retrofitting on the hydraulic performance of the WSP. The side-walls slope are shown to play a key role in determining the overall performance of the WSP. For the cases with side-walls slope of 1:1, 0.5:1 and 0:1, the hydraulic efficiency of the WSP was enhanced by adding both parallel and rotated islands. However, for the cases with side-walls slope of 2:1 and 1.5:1, addition of island deflector is shown to have negative impacts on the hydraulic performance of the waste stabilization pond.

A study of the virtual reality cybersickness impacts and improvement strategy towards the overall undergraduate students’ virtual learning experience

PurposeVirtual reality (VR) technologies have expanded their application domains towards education with pedagogical benefits including fully immersive learning environment and in-depth user engagement through scenario-based virtual simulations. Motion sickness (MS), however, has become one of the long-standing key challenges of the VR utilisation, even in gaming industries. Thus, this paper aims to present a preliminary study on understanding the VR MS, referred as cybersickness, in the teaching and learning (T&L) context at the University of Nottingham Ningbo China.Design/methodology/approachA VR-based virtual classroom content was developed and tested for 60 undergraduate students having equal access to the same VR equipment. A two-step data collection, comprising qualitative and quantitative measures, was conducted for the participants. The aspects of how gender influences the cybersickness severity and how academic background affects the learning experience were investigated and analysed using analysis of variance F-test statistical approach.FindingsThe results demonstrated approximately 47% of the participants had experienced cybersickness, where 64% of them were females. With confidence level of 95% (a = 5%), the obtained p-value and F-statistical value for the respective gender and study discipline categories against the cybersickness symptoms confirmed the significance level between the two compared variables. Moreover, it is worth highlighting that the virtual movement speed, perspective angle and visual properties of the virtual environment were selected as the top three factors that caused the cybersickness.Originality/valueThe study is hoped to provide valuable pointers to current and future VR developers in minimising the cybersickness symptoms that would enable an effective T&L environment in higher education.

Quantification of operational flexibility from a portfolio of flexible energy resources

Flexibility will be required as more renewable generation is integrated in the power system. Therefore, entities such as Flexibility Service Providers (FSPs) have emerged who can control a diverse set of resources in their portfolio to provide requested flexibility. An accurate and reliable assessment of the amount of dispatchable flexibility in FSP’s portfolio considering demand response activation, ramp rate, and post-activation rebound effects, etc. is important. In case FSP portfolio cannot fulfill the flexibility request, it must be known beforehand to avoid imbalance penalties. In this paper, we propose three flexibility quantification metrics: Expected Unserved Flexible Energy (EUFE), Expected Duration of Insufficient Flexibility (EDIF), and Expected Flexibility Index (EFI). These metrics are calculated using scenario-based simulations. The three metrics provide the FSP with quantifiable as well as graphical information on the magnitude and the duration of insufficient flexibility well ahead of gate closure time. This helps the FSP to design appropriate demand response programs (DRPs) and formulate their operational policy. These metrics account for uncertainty in forecasts of flexibility requests by evaluating multiple scenarios by conducting an operational simulation. With a representative case study, it is shown how an FSP can use the metrics to design DRPs, and when needed, schedule intraday market participation.

Effect of a virtual simulated participant experience on antibiotic stewardship knowledge among pre-licensure baccalaureate nursing students: A pilot study

BackgroundAntibiotic resistant infections are a growing global public health threat poised to render antibiotics ineffective in treating even the most common infectious diseases. It is essential that future nurses have the knowledge and skills to keep patients safe from antibiotic harm in all health care settings, however, studies indicate that there is limited education provided in nursing schools regarding antibiotic use, antibiotic resistance, and antibiotic stewardship nursing practices. ObjectiveEvaluate the effect of a virtual, scenario-based simulation experience using simulated participants on pre-licensure baccalaureate nursing students' antibiotic, antibiotic resistance, and antibiotic stewardship nursing practice knowledge. MethodsA quasi-experiential repeated measure pre-posttest design was used with a convenience sample of 165 pre-licensure baccalaureate nursing students enrolled in a health promotion course at a private university in the northeast region of the United States. The NLN Jeffries Simulation Theory guided the virtual simulation experience and used simulated participants methodology. ResultsAll students participated in the simulation experience. Statistically significant increases were noted (p < 0.005) in antibiotic, antibiotic use, and antibiotic resistance knowledge between the pre and post surveys. The most significant changes were in knowledge of antibiotic stewardship nursing practices. ConclusionIntegration of virtual, scenario-based simulations provided students an active learning opportunity to practice antibiotic stewardship assessment and practice skills through real life-like situational experiences with simulated participants, resulting in improved antibiotic, antibiotic resistance, and antibiotic stewardship knowledge.

Prediction of interactive effects of CBM production, faulting stress regime, and fault in coal reservoir: Numerical simulation

The stress in coal reservoir is dynamic and redistributes during coalbed methane (CBM) production. It is abundantly evident in the literature that maximum and minimum horizontal stresses reduce with reservoir pressure depletion. This study aims to predict the change of Anderson's faulting (tectonic regimes) in anisotropic coal due to gas production. A series of fully coupled scenario-based numerical simulations are conducted to investigate the effects of anisotropic sorption and mechanical properties of coal reservoir and immediate underlying rock stratum, and faulting on stress redistribution and gas production. For this purpose, the common assumption of uniaxial strain condition and constant overburden stress together with the widely acceptable values for the mechanical properties of coal are used for the simulations. The simulation results show that initial faulting stress regime, anisotropy in coal, and sorption parameters such as modulus of solid expansion have a significant role in prediction of final stress regime. It was also observed that a permeable fault located parallel to a horizontal borehole may contribute to gas production for both cases of the borehole drilled in the horst and graben structures. The simulation results of this study offer implications on the impact of CBM production on stress redistribution, surface subsidence, and transition of faulting stress regime around horizontal boreholes and far-field.

Integrating strategic planning intentions into land-change simulations: Designing and assessing scenarios for Bucharest

Urban regions worldwide revert to scenario-based simulations to understand and cope with uncertain land-use changes and future land-use demands. Whereas scenarios account for a variety of driving forces to simulate land change, spatial planning has received limited attention. To improve understanding of the potential contribution of planning to urban land change, we developed and simulated scenarios of development for Bucharest, addressing the local scale, and Bucharest-Ilfov Development Region, addressing the regional scale. The designed scenarios reflect (i) expected future land-use demands for living space, built-up areas, green space and agricultural areas, and (ii) statutory and strategic planning intentions extracted from four spatial plans and weighted based on expert opinion. All scenarios, alongside natural and socioeconomic driving forces, were simulated for both the local and the regional scales using the CLUMondo land-change model. Findings show that all future demands can be met under all scenarios, but that planning will make little contribution. Moreover, simulations highlight that integrating strategic planning intentions would produce a higher loss of agricultural lands than simulations with statutory planning intentions. Consequences of our findings for the role of planning in driving land change at various scales in multi-level planning systems are discussed.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Learning Outcomes of Medical Students in Taiwan: A Two-Year Prospective Cohort Study of OSCE Performance.

Background/Aims: To avoid the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical clerkship, supplemental teachings such as digital materials in the scenario-based distal simulations were implemented. This study utilized the OSCE (objective-structured clinical examination) to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the learning outcome of medical students from the regular group (class of 2020) and pandemic-impacted group (class of 2021). Methods: All medical students serially took, firstly, the mock-OSCE, secondly, the mock-OSCE, and the national OSCE. Then, the serial OSCE scores were compared between groups. Results: Although with similar scores in the first mock OSCE, the regular group (n = 78) had a higher average score in the national OSCE than the pandemic-impacted group (n = 80) (872.18 vs. 834.96, p = 0.003). In terms of improvement, the performances of the regular group were also better than the pandemic-impacted group between the second mock OSCE and the national OSCE (79.10 vs. 38.14, p = 0.014), and between the second mock OSCE and the national OSCE (125.11 vs. 77.52, p = 0.003). While separating distinct genres, the regular group had more of a score increment in standardized patient-based stations between the second mock OSCE and the national OSCE (regular vs. pandemic-impacted: 57.03 vs. 18.95, p = 0.003), as well as between the first mock OSCE and the national OSCE (75.97 vs. 26.36, p < 0.001), but there was no significant difference among the skill-based stations. In particular, the scores of the emergency medicine associated station in the national OSCE of the pandemic-impacted group was lower. Conclusions: Our study implies that the pandemic significantly hampered the learning outcomes of final year medical students in their clinical participation. Especially facing the COVID-19 pandemic, more supplemental teachings are needed to compensate the decreasing emergency medicine exposure.

Bounding the Solution Space of Complex Systems in Terms of Non-Numeric and\or Uncontrollable Scenario Variables

This paper describes an approach to blend several qualitative and quantitative methods to establish the boundaries of complex systems in terms of uncontrollable, non-numeric variables. Decision makers increasingly encounter layered, multidimensional, interconnected issues that contain unknown unknowns, vast uncertainties, and ill-defined lines of demarcation between the beginning and the end of the problem. The inexactness of boundaries in a systems problem is a result of not knowing important variables, existence of uncontrollable variables, and near-uncountable significant interactions among the variables. Furthermore, complexities and systems challenges arise from unexpected emergent behavior(s) that are often the primary concerns of systems engineers. The ability to investigate uncontrollable variables and their interactions with the system of interest is a critical step for bounding the system problem and defining the solution space. Thus, this paper focuses on developing a means for systematically examining these variables. By incorporating scenario-based computer simulations, scenario discretization, and customized designs of experiments, the authors offer systems engineers and scientists an approach for defining a viable solution space of a complex problem by developing constraint equations from uncontrollable, non-numeric variables.

Managing city-scale slow-onset disasters: Learning from Cape Town's 2015–2018 drought disaster planning

Disaster planning for slow-onset city-wide shocks will be become increasingly necessary, particularly as cities face increasingly severe climate hazards. This paper provides unique insight into the disaster planning and management that was undertaken by the City of Cape Town government in response to its most severe hydrological drought on record. It describes how risk was understood and why decisions were made on key elements of the plan, including trigger points, risk prioritisation and mitigation, and the location and design of points of distribution of water rations for the public. Reflecting upon the authors’ experience and interviews with senior City officials who worked on the drought disaster planning and response, the paper extracts five key lessons learnt that have since been applied during the COVID-19 pandemic: (i) the need for cross-functional planning and response skills, (ii) the need for integrated, up-to-date and scale-appropriate data; (iii) the importance of scenario-based simulations, communication and rapid costing to enable the rapid scaling-up of a response; (iv) the value of being able to use outsourced expert capacity effectively; and (v) the application of previously used disaster management and planning experience to build resilience in cities. These lessons, captured in a visual framework, help reflect on capabilities required for responding to future city-scale disasters. The paper provides an informative case study for other cities and risk managers, and will be particularly useful for global South contexts that face drought and other slow-onset disasters, most recently illustrated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Using a Semi-Structured Qualitative Interview to Evaluate Pediatric Interns' Use of the Electronic Medical Record in a Simulated Setting.

IntroductionEffective use of electronic medical record (EMR) is paramount to delivering safe and effective care. Current EMR education is inadequate, with literature showing frequent deficiencies in skills needed to obtain and interpret data. This study aims to evaluate pediatric interns' perception of EMR inclusion in scenario-based simulation training.MethodsA total of 13 pediatric interns participated in an EMR-enhanced, multidisciplinary simulation of a pediatric patient with septic shock during the 2019-2020 academic year. Following the simulation, the interns participated in a semi-structured interview to evaluate the experience of having the EMR incorporated into the simulation and what benefits it offers.ResultsOf the 13 interns, 12 (92%) felt that incorporating the EMR into the simulation increased the realism of the scenario. All (100%) interns reported that EMR inclusion led to increased learning about the EMR, including gaining or re-learning skills needed to access or interpret electronic clinical data. Participants felt that EMR inclusion in the simulation provided valuable learning opportunities not present in traditional EMR education.ConclusionsIntegrating the EMR into simulation is viewed positively by pediatric interns, is perceived to improve simulation realism, and helps teach important EMR skills. EMR training would benefit from incorporation into scenario-based simulations.

Predict and Simulate Sustainable Urban Growth by Using GIS and MCE Based CA. Case of Famagusta in Northern Cyprus

The research study utilizes Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method in geographic information systems (GIS) environment and uses MCE suitability maps with Cellular Automata (CA) for predicting and simulating sustainable urban development scenarios in Famagusta City. It represents first scenario-based simulations of the future growth of Famagusta as “do-nothing” and “sustainable”. Under the do-nothing scenario, Markov Chain probability analysis with CA models is used with temporal land-use/cover datasets based on the images from 2002 and 2011. It shows that, Famagusta City is moving away from sustainable development. Future expansion of both medium-density and low-density urban zones are always located around existing built-up urban area along transportation lines. A similar model is employed by applying sustainable urban development policies by the policy driven scenario. As a main goal, sustainable urban development includes three main criteria, compactness, environmental protection, and social equity. Additionally, brownfield development, distance from center, soil characteristics, soil productivity, vegetation, environmental protection areas (EPA), distance from local services, distance from open space are used as criteria with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Having such a simulation with the combination of MCE, GIS, and CA has several advantages. Prediction of urban growth presents possible alternative development in the future; visualization of decision making easier for town planners and supports the spatial planning process; and creates more realistic results of our choices related to urban growth.

Towards sustainable financing models: A proof-of-concept for a waqf-based alternative financing model for renewable energy investments

This study investigates alternative equity-based financing models and proposes a waqf-owned (that could also be called philanthropy-, endowment-, trust-, foundation-, and third sector-based) financial intermediary (WOFI). We do so by developing the agent-based model and scenario-based computer simulations for financing solar powerplants. For this purpose, we redesign a waqf-based financing system and analyze the changes in wealth inequality, capital pooling, and social prosperity for a future time frame. As a proof-of-concept, the simulation results show that for the given case study, the proposed WOFI reduces wealth inequality dramatically, whereas conventional debt-based financing models raise inequality. Besides, restructuring the waqf-based financial intermediaries also enables the capital pooling essential for large projects and absent in the conventional waqf system. In short, this study proves that waqf-based institutions have a remarkable potential to contribute towards sustainable development goals by taking account of long-run social implications, economic growth, and environment-friendly projects.

Development of a multicriteria decision-making model for selecting optimal aviation fatigue measurement methods

Human fatigue has been proved to directly cause or contribute to a significant share of aviation accidents. Although fatigue measurement is a major input to any solution that targets reduction of fatigue adverse influences on aviation operations, there is a critical lack of evidence on what optimum sets of fatigue measurement strategies could be applied given the vast organizational and operational differences between various industry players. The current study utilizes the published aviation safety literature, the technology acceptance model and expert opinion to propose a new multicriteria decision model, the aviation fatigue measurement selection model, to decide on what fatigue measurement methods are most suitable for each aviation operator. The model addresses the validity, user acceptance, cost and other limitations of each currently acknowledged fatigue measurement method. The model was then applied through comprehensive scenario-based simulations and was found to be sensitive to changes in user preferences and valid.

Optimal Operation Strategy of Virtual Power Plant Considering Real-Time Dispatch Uncertainty of Distributed Energy Resource Aggregation

Virtual power plant (VPP) technologies continue to develop to embrace various types of distributed energy resources (DERs) that have inherent real-time uncertainty. To prevent side effects on the power system owing to the uncertainty, the VPP should manage its internal resources’ uncertainty as a whole. This paper proposes an optimal operation strategy for a VPP participating in day-ahead and real-time energy market so that a distributed energy resource aggregation (DERA) can cope with real-time fluctuation due to uncertainties while achieving its maximum profit. The proposed approach has bidding models of the DERAs including microgrid, electric vehicle aggregation, and demand response aggregation, as well as the VPP. The VPP determines internal prices applied to the DERA by evaluating its real-time responses to the day-ahead schedule and updating proposed pricing function parameters, and the DERA adjusts its energy reserves. By repeating this coordination process, the VPP can establish an optimal operation strategy to manage real-time uncertainty on the DERA’s own. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is verified by identifying a capability of the DERA to cope with real-time fluctuation through scenario-based simulations. The result shows that the VPP can reduce 1.6% of cost while the internal price applied to the DERA is close to the maximum.

A comprehensive modeling framework to evaluate soil erosion by water and tillage

Soil erosion is significantly increased and accelerated by unsustainable agricultural activities, resulting in one of the major threats to soil health and water quality worldwide. Quantifying soil erosion under different conservation practices is important for watershed management and a framework that can capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of soil erosion by water is required. In this paper, a modeling framework that coupled physically based models, Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and MIKE SHE/MIKE 11, was presented. Daily soil loss at a grid-scale resolution was determined using WEPP and the transport processes were simulated using a generic advection dispersion equation in MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 models. The framework facilitated the physical simulation of sediment production at the field scale and transport processes across the watershed. The coupled model was tested using an intensively managed agricultural watershed in Illinois. The impacts of no-till practice on both sediment production and sediment yield were evaluated using scenario-based simulations with different fractions of no-till and conventional tillage combinations. The results showed that if no-till were implemented for all fields throughout the watershed, 76% and 72% reductions in total soil loss and sediment yield, respectively, can be achieved. In addition, if no-till practice were implemented in the most vulnerable areas to sediment production across the watershed, a 40% no-till implementation can achieve almost the same reduction as 100% no-till implementation. Based on the simulation results, the impacts of no-till practice are more prominent if implemented where it is most needed.

Hold the line: Modeling private coastal adaptation through shoreline armoring decisions

A primary conduit for coastal adaptation to climate change on private land is the hardening, or armoring, of the shoreline to mitigate the effects of erosion and sea-level rise (SLR). When such decisions are made at the parcel-level, there is potential for spatial spillovers, including externalities due to deflected wave action and peer effects. We estimate a discrete choice model of landowner armoring choices from 1990 to 2015 in the U.S. state of Oregon that suggests the impacts of spatial spillovers are highly influential determinants in these private adaptation decisions. Our landscape simulations excluding spatial spillovers may under-predict future armoring by 37–97 percent. From scenario-based simulations, we then demonstrate the primacy of policy, as a removal of a current land-use regulation that limits armoring has potential to significantly increase future armoring by 69 percent. Furthermore, inclusion of SLR projections suggests armoring would increase an additional 5.4 percent within four decades.

Inescapable scripts: role-playing feminist (re)visions and rehearsing racialized state violence in police training scenarios

This article examines how police vision is trained, tested, and scripted at the site of a local police academy in San Diego, California. I use the term scripting to illustrate how police recruits are directed to see, act, and respond to racialized, gendered others in scenario-based simulations during the final week of the police academy. Through participant-observation and methods in performance ethnography, I argue that turning to police training as an object of analysis offers ethnographic insights into the performance of tacit, ordinary methods of police violence. As a feminist intervention into the “scripting” of police vision, I describe my attempts to read against the grain of these scenario scripts by volunteering as a role-play actor in the police academy, taking on different embodied roles in order to examine how police recruits read the choreography of my racialized body. I suggest an investigation into the performativity of policing can move debates centered on racialized police violence beyond ideological frameworks that rely on the same visualizing technologies and logics of objectivity deployed by the institution of policing.