Abstract
The research study utilizes Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method in geographic information systems (GIS) environment and uses MCE suitability maps with Cellular Automata (CA) for predicting and simulating sustainable urban development scenarios in Famagusta City. It represents first scenario-based simulations of the future growth of Famagusta as “do-nothing” and “sustainable”. Under the do-nothing scenario, Markov Chain probability analysis with CA models is used with temporal land-use/cover datasets based on the images from 2002 and 2011. It shows that, Famagusta City is moving away from sustainable development. Future expansion of both medium-density and low-density urban zones are always located around existing built-up urban area along transportation lines. A similar model is employed by applying sustainable urban development policies by the policy driven scenario. As a main goal, sustainable urban development includes three main criteria, compactness, environmental protection, and social equity. Additionally, brownfield development, distance from center, soil characteristics, soil productivity, vegetation, environmental protection areas (EPA), distance from local services, distance from open space are used as criteria with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Having such a simulation with the combination of MCE, GIS, and CA has several advantages. Prediction of urban growth presents possible alternative development in the future; visualization of decision making easier for town planners and supports the spatial planning process; and creates more realistic results of our choices related to urban growth.
Highlights
It is well known that, after the publication of “Our Common Future”, the concept of sustainability has become an important concern in development literature and has been tried to be applied in all fields of economic activities, in many countries [1]
Land use suitability assessment, which is a crucial application in urban planning and land use management, provides a fundamental base for planning through the decisionmaking process
This study concentrates on using geographic information systems (GIS) and Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) to produce suitability maps as spatial factors of urban growth
Summary
It is well known that, after the publication of “Our Common Future”, the concept of sustainability has become an important concern in development literature and has been tried to be applied in all fields of economic activities, in many countries [1]. As a result of the Agenda 21 and the Barbados Conference in 1994, there has been evidence that various policies, programs, and measures were developed for Small Island Developing. States (SIDS), and they are trying to improve the integration of development policies with sustainability. Agenda 21 strongly emphasizes that SIDS are extremely fragile integrated special systems. Because of their small size, limited resources, and isolation from markets, future development needs to be focused on alternative and integrated planning options. This protects the environment in the long term and creates economic benefits for local communities simultaneously which is called sustainable development. Land use planning is a process which can ensure that by achieving efficiency [2]
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