Russo-Ukrainian War Research Articles

Russo–Ukrainian war: Limits of Western economic sanctions

AbstractThe potency of economic sanctions imposed on nations depends on demand and supply adjustment possibilities. Adverse GDP impacts will be maximal when import, export, production, distribution and finance are inflexible (universal non-substitution). This paper elaborates these conditions, and quantifies the maximum GDP loss that Western sanctions could have inflicted on Russia in 2022–2023. It reports the World Bank's predictions, contrasts them with results and draws inferences about the efficiency of Russia's workably competitive markets. The paper shows that Russia's economic system exhibits moderate universal substitutability and is less vulnerable to punitive discipline than Western policymakers suppose. The likelihood that the Kremlin will restore Ukraine's territorial integrity, ceteris paribus, is correspondingly low. The authors also observe that unintended adverse side effects from sanctions and counter-sanctions were excessive because policymakers chose to maximize GDP-damage to Russia instead of optimizing Western and third-party net benefits. Given moderate substitutability, Western policymakers can switch to smart net benefit maximizing sanctions that enhance Western and third-party welfare without significantly bolstering Russia's military industrial productivity and war-waging capabilities by retaining embargoes on weapons, technology and critical components, while selectively softening other restrictions. Smart sanctions might facilitate a negotiated settlement of the Russo–Ukrainian war.

Intelligence in the time of war: Romanian lenses on changing practices and social dynamics

ABSTRACT Crucial in any military conflict, information warfare has proved to be a distinguishing characteristic and an essential strategic means in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Both sides have invested in advancing narratives that can facilitate and support their version of truth and that can make a difference in winning the war. Publishing open source and declassified intelligence has been employed as a tactic in an unprecedented way, one that has stimulated an intense debate over the reconceptualisation of intelligence and the new role intelligence needs to play in a larger social context. Due to its novelty and potential, this major shift requires further attention. Additionally, its meanings and reflections deserve deciphering in other national contexts that are relevant for understanding the role of intelligence in the Russo-Ukrainian war. The paper looks at the particular case of Romania, whose relevance is determined mostly by its geographical proximity to the conflict area. By using qualitative research, it aims to investigate the perceptions of two types of respondents: Romanian experts in intelligence, security and strategic communication, and students taking intelligence and security-related study programmes.

Algerian gas to strengthen energy security of the European Union: Policy, capacity and strategy

The last decade has seen relative stability in the global gas market, with European countries benefiting from access to abundant and inexpensive gas supplies, primarily from Russia. However, the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war has exposed Europe's energy vulnerabilities, given its heavy reliance on Russian gas. In response, Algeria has emerged as a key alternative, drawing increased diplomatic engagement from the European Union. Algeria's significance stems not only from its considerable gas reserves and potential for production expansion but also from its geographical proximity to Europe and its robust gas infrastructure, including LNG tankers and a comprehensive pipeline network. This paper seeks to delve into Algeria's potential to bolster the European Union's energy security. Through a detailed examination of Algeria's resource capabilities and insights drawn from the experiences of Spain and Italy—countries that have navigated political tensions and competition with Russian gas respectively—the study aims to provide a nuanced analysis of how Algeria can play a pivotal role in ensuring a stable and secure energy supply for Europe.

Martial necropolitics: The position of the combatant in the Russo-Ukrainian war

The Russo-Ukrainian War has produced a myriad of necropolitical discourses regarding the justification of death and the subjugation of lives to potential death. Contemporary necropolitical scholarship has primarily focused on the civilian, subaltern dimension of this paradigm in a wider context, yet in this war, combatants from the opposing armed forces are the individuals most consistently embedded in these conditions of potential death. How, then, is the potential death of the combatant justified and legitimized? Through a critical engagement with the concept of the border as the front, this article will explore how the subjugation of Ukrainian and Russian combatants to the conditions of potential death is discursively justified through a framework of the necropolitical logics of survival and martyrdom. Through these logics, two competing necropolitical regimes of truth have arisen, nevertheless leading to the same conclusion – the mobilized bodies of the combatants at the front – yet promising different versions of a life beyond death itself.

Snyder and Habermas on the war in Ukraine: a critical discourse analysis of elite media discourse in Germany

ABSTRACT This article presents a critical qualitative study of two opinion articles, written by two eminent scholars (Jürgen Habermas and Timothy Snyder), on the German government’s hesitant arms supply for Ukraine during the first phase of the Russian war of aggression in 2022. The main aim of the article is the uncovering of the discursive practices of critique performed by two major public intellectuals. This case study thus allows insights into the simplistic representation of the Russo-Ukrainian war in German elite media discourse. The analysis focuses on actor representations and topic limitations and manipulations in the two op-eds. It is shown that both Habermas and Snyder use characteristic ways of social actor representations in their texts which exhibit their allegiances. Furthermore, both of them limit and change topics at the meso- and macro-levels of their texts in order to make their arguments sound. In closing, the critical potential of linguistic discourse analysis is shortly addressed by arguing that the context sensitive application of the categories for analyzing discourse can uncover the internal norms to which authors orient which makes them open for a critical analysis.

Entangled Positionality: Researchers’ Everyday Practices Amidst Coronavirus, War, and Parenting

Reflecting on the researcher’s position is crucial for understanding how data are gathered, analyzed, and presented. However, researcher positionality is often reckoned through overly deterministic and rigid social statuses. This is problematic, as intertwined everyday practices of researchers’ living and doing fieldwork are diverse and messy. By reflecting on ethnographic research in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the wake of the Russo-Ukrainian war, we elaborate an alternative way to speak of and identify the researcher’s position. Using the concept of “entanglement,” we describe how researchers’ everyday practices together with large-scale events, researchers’ social statuses, personal lives, and mundane contingencies, co-produce researchers’ positionality at all stages of the research. We also provide recommendations on how to incorporate such an “entangled positionality” into methodological and epistemological aspects of social research.

COMPETENCIES OF THE FUTURE IN LIGHT OF THE CHANGES TAKING PLACE IN LARGE-SIZED COMPANIES

The reality of the labour market is that changes are determined by both internal and external factors. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War doubtlessly resulted in a significant transformation of the labour market. The consequences of both events belong to external factors, where the expectations of both employers and employees, as well the offers being made by both groups participating in the labour market, clashed anew, revealing the existing competencies and deficits in their scope. Given the aim of the article, the authors will focus primarily on the conditions created by employers in large-sized companies, and their influence on the reinforcement and development of competencies of the future. The conducted survey studies indicate the necessity to introduce changes in the process of work organisation; and of the kind which will foster the development of competencies of the future. The studies were conducted taking into account the social changes in the external environment of organisations and the changes which were imposed on employers, remote work among others, in response to the changing environment. Thus, the issues raised in the studies, apart from competencies of the future, include organisational changes faced by the employees. Based on the obtained results recommendations were formulated.

EU arms collaboration, procurement, and offsets: the impact of the war in Ukraine

ABSTRACT In the last twenty years, the EU has made increasingly greater efforts to boost defence cooperation among MS. To strengthen the EDTIB and avoid duplication of capabilities, the EU has encouraged “European preference” in arms procurement and MS’ defence collaborative projects, also by seeking to expunge defence offsets from the single market. Against this backdrop, on 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. What impact has the war in Ukraine had on EU defence cooperation? Has the war impacted MS in a similar fashion or unevenly, reinforcing defence integration dynamics for some, while kickstarting disintegration for others? Two years on, a thorough analysis of the impact of the war on EU defence cooperation is still missing. This paper fills this gap by exploring three levels of analysis – arms collaboration, arms procurement, and offsets – and by comparing pre-invasion evidence with data from the post-invasion period. The analysis suggests that the Russo-Ukrainian war has negatively impacted EU defence cooperation, potentially increasing both fragmentation and non-EU dependencies. However, although MS’ threat perception and their ability to reap industrial benefits remain important to explain EU defence cooperation, integration or disintegration dynamics do not neatly map onto the geographical or size divides identified by the literature.

Spreading the “smog of war”: the impact of propaganda, social media, and OSINT on U.S. civil-intelligence relations

ABSTRACT Propaganda, more politely called ‘information operations’ these days, has been a prominent feature of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Both the Russians and Ukrainians have used propaganda to court global public opinion, shape military operations, and secure or destabilize alliances. However, although they have each tried to control the war’s narrative through propaganda, they cannot control social media – the enormous, entangled web of technology, actors, and interests that allows billions of users to interact, argue, and influence. This article will explain how the combination of propaganda and social media in the Russo-Ukrainian War has destabilized American civil-intelligence relations and raised political, social, and ethical questions concerning the role of citizens, both individually and collectively, in foreign wars.

Beyond counterintelligence: understanding the SBU’s social media outreach on Telegram during wartime

ABSTRACT This study examines the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) use of its Telegram channel for social media outreach during the Russo-Ukrainian war. It employs a qualitative thematic analysis of Telegram posts published between February 2022 and October 2023 to investigate the SBU’s communication strategies. The study identifies the SBU’s focus on themes such as collaboration and treason, showcasing its operational successes, and countering Russian espionage in its social media messaging. The findings provide insights into the SBU’s approach to engaging the Ukrainian public, in contrast with traditional concepts of intelligence communication, and emphasise its role in influencing public discourse.

Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on Black Sea trade: Geoeconomic challenges

This paper investigates the strategic importance of the Black Sea region in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Focusing on trade dynamics, geopolitical actors, and regional cooperation, the study analyzes the region's transformation and the resulting implications for global trade. The paper examines how the conflict has redefined trade relationships among Black Sea nations and major powers. For this purpose, trend models are evaluated for three-time samples for the export and import of products of 7 countries of the Black Sea Basin in both nominal and relative dimensions. In total, the evaluation and analysis encompass 1764 econometric models. Noteworthy trends include the evolving roles of the EU, the Middle East, and Russia, the potential resurgence of Ukraine, and Turkey's mediating role. The post-conflict landscape could witness heightened Western influence and continued Chinese engagement.

Is civilizational primordialism any better than nationalist primordialism?

The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war seems to have prompted a return to anthropology's origins: the armchair. Claiming authority based on status and knowledge accumulated elsewhere and extrapolated to Ukraine, public scholars have proffered takes, op-eds, and geopolitical phantasies. Slow research in the full ethnographic mode, studying actors and subjectivities in fast shifting contexts, would have been preferable. In a context of war, complex and dynamic political phenomena easily become tokens in political debates that do not go much beyond statements of political identity.

Triumphing Over Adversity: Navigating Climate Change, Covid-19, and Conflict for Sustainable Development in the Post-Globalization Era

This research examines the role of addressing global humanitarian issues in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) established by States at the UN Sustainable Development Conference in 2012. The SDGs aim to tackle key challenges related to sustainable development, covering environmental, social, and economic dimensions. However, achieving a balance between environmental protection, economic growth, and social inclusion is a complex task requiring continuous efforts and commitment. Through a socio-legal approach, this study identifies three global humanitarian issues as obstacles to the SDGs: climate change, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and conflicts between States, specifically the Russo-Ukrainian War. Addressing climate change is crucial as it poses significant threats to the environment and human life. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates existing challenges, impacting health systems, economies, and social well-being. State conflicts disrupt peace and stability, impeding progress towards development goals. Overcoming these obstacles necessitates international cooperation, policy reforms, and effective governance, prioritizing sustainability, resilience, and inclusiveness. By addressing these humanitarian issues, we can enhance the likelihood of achieving the SDGs and building a more sustainable and equitable future for all.

Navigating wartime communications: multinational corporations in the Russia-Ukraine war

AbstractThis article explores the communication strategies of multinational corporations in response to the Russo-Ukrainian War and the public pressure to divest from the Russian domestic market. By content analyzing official statements from the top 50 revenue-generating multinational corporations in Russia, the article identifies patterns in corporate narratives about the war, their actions and concerns, and potential solutions. The findings reveal that most companies declare scaling down their presence in Russia while maintaining certain basic obligations, prioritizing employee safety, and expressing concerns about the global economy. While few explicitly condemn Russia's aggression, many adopt neutral language to avoid naming Russia as the aggressor. Corporations emphasize the importance of diplomacy, adherence to international law, and the pursuit of peace, but often avoid proposing concrete solutions. Despite variations across industries, countries of origin, and decisions to stay or leave Russia, the differences in statements were not significant. The uniformity of corporate statements and evidence that companies frequently do not follow their declared promises suggest potential “bluewashing” – making vague or false claims of social responsibility or anti-war stances to improve their public image. These findings emphasize the need for multinational corporations to develop sincere and original wartime communication strategies.

A Game Framework Based on the Disinformation Warfare in Russo-Ukrainian War

A Game Framework Based on the Disinformation Warfare in Russo-Ukrainian War

Correction to: Let sleeping bears lie: an analysis of the factors behind Indonesia’s response to the Russo–Ukrainian war and its implications for the Indo‑Pacific region

Correction to: Let sleeping bears lie: an analysis of the factors behind Indonesia’s response to the Russo–Ukrainian war and its implications for the Indo‑Pacific region

The Discursive Power of Digital Popular Art during the Russo-Ukrainian War: Re/Shaping Visual Narratives

Twenty-first century digital technologies and popular visual art have transformed the ways military conflicts are experienced, narrated, and shared. It demonstrates that digital platforms have become arenas for constructing visual narratives that influence public perception and engagement with the conflict. Through a multimodal and visual analysis of over 950 digital artworks shared on Instagram during the first three months of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this study investigates how these artworks form specific visual narratives which contribute to portraying the new wartime reality while also constructing images of the self and the other through heroization, victimization, dehumanization, and other strategies. All these visual narratives jointly represent the complexity of the war reality and form an epistemic understanding of the conflict. This study highlights the important function that popular visual art on digital platforms such as Instagram plays in shaping perceptions of the Russo-Ukrainian War, particularly in expressing emotions, conveying traumas, and influencing public opinions.

Dynamic volatility spillover relationships between the Chinese carbon and international energy markets from extreme climate shocks

The immense attention to climate change risk has stimulated increasing interest in carbon markets and their linkages to other markets. This study investigates the dynamic volatility spillover relationships between the Chinese carbon and international energy markets, and the impact of extreme weather events on the relationships. Empirical results show that the risk is transferred from the international gas (GAS) and crude oil (OIL) markets to the Chinese carbon market (GDC). The total volatility spillover among markets and the net spillover of GDC with other markets both have obvious periodicity. The shocks from extreme weather events and extremely high temperatures can amplify the trading volume of GDC, and strengthen the fluctuations of GDC, ultimately turning GDC from a risk receiver to a risk transmitter. The portfolio strategies based on the reversal phenomenon can achieve higher average returns compared to the Chinese and EU carbon markets. In addition, the shocks of the Sino-US trade war, the Covid-19 outbreak, the COP 26 and the Russo-Ukrainian war have different effects on the volatility spillovers among markets. Economic and policy implications for investors and regulators are also provided along with these findings.

The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Risk and Return of TAIEX

Abstract This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war (RUW) on the dynamic of TAIEX options' risk-return profile. Since the outbreak of the war on February 24, 2022, global economic sanctions have disrupted the world economy. Soaring energy and food prices and supply shortages have suppressed global economic growth, leading to rising inflation. Financial markets have reacted to the shocks caused by this war, thus intensifying the volatility of options markets. This study utilizes Hsu's (2013) option return models to investigate the impacts of how the war influences the TAIEX options' risk-return profile, including PDFs, profitability, and expected returns. The contributions of this paper are two-fold: It is the first paper on the (RUW) on the options markets; additionally, we demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the normality assumption of simple arithmetic returns is acceptable, making the Hsu's (2013) option return models more robust. The results indicate that the war has significantly affected and altered the PDFs of option returns, expected option returns, and volatility after the war. However, both theoretically and empirically shows that, despite the challenges posed by the war, put options trading during this period has been profitable. Keywords: Russo-Ukrainian War, TAIEX options, Option return model, Risk/Return Profile.

Doing business in Russia: normative organizational resilience, organizational identity and exit decisions

PurposeOur study examines multinational enterpris (MNE) decisions to withdraw from the Russian market on moral grounds in reaction to the Russo–Ukrainian war. We investigate to what extent these decisions reflect the normative organizational resilience of MNEs under institutional pressures in Russia. We test the impact of various macro- (home democracy, institutional quality, stakeholder pressure) and micro-variables (ESG criteria) that define the organizational identities of MNEs in relation to their withdrawal decisions. Our sample comprises 1,648 companies from 55 countries doing business in Russia before the start of the conflict.Design/methodology/approachTo test our hypotheses, we perform a nuanced analysis using both latent constructs and regression analysis on data for 1,648 MNEs.FindingsOur results are in line with the foreign divestment literature, suggesting that MNEs are likely to exit normatively distant countries.Originality/valueIn this study, we explore the impact of organizational values on normative responses of MNEs to a geopolitical crisis. We introduce a normative organizational resilience construct to demonstrate how MNEs respond to institutional pressures in a host country, in this case Russia. Making exit decisions on moral grounds, MNEs have acted as social actors endowed with moral sense and intentionality, in conformity with their organizational values.