Ukraine Russia Research Articles

Factors affecting the costs of broiler chicken production in light of urgent international variables

The study aims to analyze the costs of broiler chicken production in the Fayoum governorate, and in particular the effects that the Russia–Ukraine war has had on production costs. The results indicate increased production costs due to the war and a decreased net return for the three production capacities and the sample average: the return index on invested dollars before the war was 0.71, 0.89, 1.0, and 0.87, respectively; however, this decreased after the war to 0.35, 0.53, 0.66, and 0.51, respectively. The war has led to an increase of 43.93% in the minimum price as the production costs have risen. The value of the price elasticity of supply was about 0.233 at the minimum price and 0.041 at the current price level. If the prevailing price increases by 10% to become $2.13 thousand per ton, the price elasticity of supply becomes about 0.037. The study recommends producing cheap, high-quality, non-traditional feed and focusing on small production capacities. It also suggests integrating and developing them to increase profits. KEYWORDS capacity savings, cost functions, economic efficiency, equivalence price, quantitative equivalence, supply function

Volatility spillover between oil prices and main exchange rates: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH-connectedness approach

This paper investigates the co-movements of oil prices and the exchange rates of 10 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. First, we estimated the total static spillover index based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Second, we adopted the recent DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS approach proposed by Gabauer (2020) to conduct a time-varying analysis that investigates the directionally dynamic connectedness among WTI and Shanghai crude oil futures and currency markets. We explored contagion spillover volatility by focusing on a sample of major oil-exporting and oil-importing countries using daily data from 4 March 2018 to 25 August 2023. We analysed this relationship during four phases: the entire sample; before COVID-19; during COVID-19; and during the Russian‒Ukrainian war. Our results confirm the persistence of volatility for the series studied, thereby justifying the use of the dynamic connectedness approach. Our findings also reveal strong evidence of volatility transmission between oil prices and exchange-rate markets. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian‒Ukrainian war have altered this link. The connectedness between the two markets (petrol and exchange) was stronger at the beginning of the crisis period and then gradually depreciated in value over time. Our findings reveal that exchange rates for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries are more sensitive to oil price shocks during crises than in normal periods. This suggests that volatility contagion between these two markets continues to exist, thus emphasising the role of oil price shocks as net transmitters across the network during extreme scenarios.

Casualties of border changes: evidence from nighttime lights and plant exit

Abstract We investigate the economic effects of the Russia–Ukraine conflict – following the 2014 annexation of Crimea – on Russian border regions. While southern regions gained market access to Crimea, northern regions lost market access to Ukraine. Using nighttime lights data and geo-referenced plant-level data, we find that regions with deteriorating market access saw 43% less growth in lights – translating into 6–12% lower growth in GDP depending on the assumed lights-GDP elasticity – and a 35% increase in the exit probability for manufacturing plants after 2014. Exploiting variations in closed local border crossings in the northern regions, we find that these effects may be partly driven by less cross-border labour flows.

Time-varying spillovers in high-order moments among cryptocurrencies

This study uses high-frequency (1-min) price data to examine the connectedness among the leading cryptocurrencies (i.e. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance, Cardano, Litecoin, and Ripple) at volatility and high-order (third and fourth orders in this paper) moments based on skewness and kurtosis. The sample period is from February 10, 2020, to August 20, 2022, which captures a pandemic, wartime, cryptocurrency market crashes, and the full collapse of a stablecoin. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach, we find that the total dynamic connectedness throughout all realized estimators grows with the time frequency of the data. Moreover, all estimators are time dependent and affected by significant events. As an exception, the Russia–Ukraine War did not increase the total connectedness among cryptocurrencies. Analysis of third- and fourth-order moments reveals additional dynamics not captured by the second moments, highlighting the importance of analyzing higher moments when studying systematic crash and fat-tail risks in the cryptocurrency market. Additional tests show that rolling-window-based VAR models do not reveal these patterns. Regarding the directional risk transmissions, Binance was a consistent net transmitter in all three connectedness systems and it dominated the volatility connectedness network. In contrast, skewness and kurtosis connectedness networks were dominated by Litecoin and Bitcoin and Ripple were net shock receivers in all three networks. These findings are expected to serve as a guide for portfolio optimization, risk management, and policy-making practices.

Do Living Arrangements and Eating Habits Influence University Students’ Food Waste Perception in Italy and Poland?

Consumers’ perception plays a central role in tackling food waste at the final consumption stage, specifically among university students. In Europe, it is estimated that 47 to 67 Mt of food waste is generated at the household level or at food service consumption, including university canteens. The present cross-country research, through an online-based questionnaire among university students, investigates students’ perception on food waste by distinguishing among two different categories: on the one side, students living with their family; on the other side, students living without their family. Further, the research distinguishes among students eating at university canteens, students preparing food at home, students purchasing take-away foods and students coming back home to eat. The study compares university students’ perception on food waste in Italy and in Poland, with the overarching purpose of shaping sustainable pathways and defining educational interventions to enhance students’ perception and awareness on food waste. Data are analyzed according to the Mann–Whitney U test and the Kruskal–Wallis test. Age is a pivotal factor and suggests a generational gap in awareness and attitude toward food waste, whereas sex significantly affects food waste perception in Poland but not in Italy, suggesting a more homogeneous perception across sexes. The research highlights the impacts that socio-economic and environmental crises (e.g., climate change, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, high inflation rates) have on food waste perception in Poland, which is closer to that of Russia and Ukraine compared to that of Italy, and provides academics, practitioners and public authorities with practical and theoretical insights toward food waste minimization.

Insights From Commodity Markets Reaction to the Russia–Ukraine War

The article aims to investigate how the Russia–Ukraine war has affected India’s base metal, energy, and bullion markets using short-term event technique. The official website of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) has provided the daily prices for nine specific commodities and selected commodity indexes. The study discovered that the two countries’ conflict had no discernible effect on the Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) of a few selected indices. However, more in-depth examination of specific commodities showed that the CAR of just the base metal index was considerably impacted. The study also observed that the war had an impact on returns of investors who experienced positive returns only in case of nickel whereas negative returns in case of copper, lead and zinc. However, analysis of the cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) of the selected indices has revealed a consistent and significant negative impact which could be due to other external factors influencing prices of the commodity index and individual indices. The present study is quite useful to investors, traders, analysts, policy makers and risk managers as it assists them to make informed investment decisions, manage risk, identify potential opportunities in the market and develop trading strategies.

Ukraine: The Balance of Resources and the Balance of Resolve

The Russia–Ukraine war is not approaching stalemate but remains dynamic and unpredictable. The balance of resources favours the West: its economic superiority over Russia is much greater than during the Cold War. But the balance of resolve favours Russia: it is mobilising its capacity more effectively than the coalition of open democracies that supports Ukraine. The West needs a geo-economic strategy to harness its inherent strength to security goals. It should do three things: mobilise military–industrial production; move towards a general prohibition on trade with Russia with few exceptions; and confiscate the $300 billion in Russian central-bank assets frozen in Western financial systems. Given the stakes of the war, unfounded fears of adverse consequences should not deter Western countries from taking these steps.

Telecoupled impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war on global cropland expansion and biodiversity

Telecoupled impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war on global cropland expansion and biodiversity

The bitskrieg that was and wasn’t: the military and intelligence implications of cyber operations during Russia’s war on Ukraine

ABSTRACT The Russian war on Ukraine presents a multifaceted landscape for the analysis of the cyber dimensions of contemporary war and their strategic, operational, and tactical impacts. While the long-anticipated disabling and devastating cyber blitzkrieg did not happen at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the persistent utilization of a variety of cyber tools by both sides in this war points to the hybrid warfare strategy taking place not only on the ground but also in cyberspace. Cyberattacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, governmental entities and different parts of the economy have been a constant feature in Ukraine’s struggle to maintain its national security. These cyberattacks had a varying level of success. Yet, their role in the Russia–Ukraine war is still not fully understood or extensively studied. This work analyses cyber incidents from the first period of conflict, starting in November 2013 until 23 February 2022, and examines their objective and subjective impacts at the domestic and the international levels. This work also reviews the post-escalation period starting from 24 February 2022, using the data collected directly from the publicly available Ukrainian governmental sources and international cyber firms. This work aims to address the role and impact of cyber operations in an ongoing Russia–Ukraine war on both the people, networked systems, and other physical contests of warfare and the soldiers in the trenches is the principal subject of this article.

Enacting Journalistic Authority: The Communicative Challenges and Competences of Live Two-Way Correspondents in Swedish Public Service Broadcasting

ABSTRACT Whenever a major event flares up in the world, we are bound to be met by correspondents reporting live on the news. The correspondents are typically promoted as authoritative voices. Their live talk is delivered in “the live two-way,” a broadcast interaction between the presenter and the correspondent on location. Focusing on live reporting during the Ukraine–Russia war (2022–), this study analyses the communicative work that goes on in the live two-way, and how correspondents handle the tasks related to the enactments of epistemic authority. A conceptual framework is applied defining the communicative and epistemic dimension of the live two-way. This study applies a discourse approach and focuses on experienced correspondents in Swedish public service. Data consists of 30 live two-ways and interviews with 5 of the journalists about planning and execution of the live reporting. Results show how practices and roles separated in other genres of news are integrated in the complex work of the correspondent who is expected to fluently report from location, convey a sense of being there, present facts, and analyse and explain. This study indicates different styles of reporting when correspondents alternate between a careful and confident stance as they balance their commitments to truth.

Food Inflation Examination through the Dynamic Nexus between Olive Oil and Substitutes

This study provides insights into food inflation by investigating the dynamic interconnectedness of the prices of olive oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and palm oil. Using data from January 1990 to October 2023, averaged dynamic and extended joint connectedness analyses are conducted by employing the innovative Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) methodology. The findings reveal that olive oil presents a low connection with substitute oils and generates net spillover effects, especially at the onset of COVID-19 but also at later stages and during the Russia–Ukraine war. Palm oil transmits effects on the system of oils before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) but renders a net receiver afterward, while sunflower oil follows the opposite way. Systemic connectedness is the highest during the GFC and remains elevated during QE-tapering. It slightly increases during COVID-19 outbursts and illustrates higher spikes when the Russia–Ukraine conflict begins. These linkages are even stronger among only the substitute oils.

Co-movement between carbon emissions and forex market: A tale of COVID-19 outbreak and Russia-Ukraine invasion

Carbon emissions, a fast-moving environmental problem, is truly becoming an overarching international financial sensation. The carbon emission challenges faced during the COVID-19 and Russia Ukraine War adversely affected forex market. This paper attempts to unravel the frequency co-movement of carbon emissions with forex market. We consider daily observation of carbon emissions (CE) and forex market proxied by Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound Sterling (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) against United States Dollar (USD). These currencies exchange rates are analyzed since their volatility and trading have been particularly high. We collect daily observation of these markets extending form December 31, 2019 to February 10, 2023 and employ wavelet analysis for the empirical computation. The result unfolds that there is a strong and positive co-movement between carbon emissions and exchange rate during the COVID-19 period in the long run for CAD, AUD, GBP and weak for EUR and JPY. However, JPY is in anti-phase relationship with carbon emission in 128–256 frequencies. In addition, JPY leads the relationship during COVID-19 outbreak and Russia-Ukraine invasion respectively. This study ventures to offer insight to the policy analyst, investors and portfolio managers.

Risk quantification and validation for green energy markets: New insight from a credibility theory approach

We aimed at constructing the Credible VaR (Credible ES) forecast for a target green energy instrument by combining its VaR (ES) forecast and the expected VaR (expected ES) forecast for all green energy instruments. Using return data for eleven sectoral green energy indices, we revealed the tendency of their risks to decline following the Paris Agreement but then substantially increase during COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Despite a much higher trust in the VaR (ES) forecast, the resulting Credible VaR (Credible ES) forecast performed relatively better, as validated through backtesting, thereby improving investment strategies and decision-making through risk sharing.

Offensive Cyber Operations and State Power: Lessons from Russia in Ukraine

Offensive cyber operations are an increasingly important tool of authoritarian statecraft, used in the pursuit of foreign policy objectives and functioning as an expression of state power. Our article informs Canadian cybersecurity policy by pulling lessons from Russia's use of cyber aggression against Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. Our analysis explores the nexus between Russian cyber operations and foreign and domestic policy, the relationship between private and public cybersecurity organizations, and the purported intent and effectiveness of Russian cyber operations.

“Putin’s War of Choice”: U.S. Propaganda and the Russia–Ukraine Invasion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 ignited propaganda efforts from the U.S. executive branch of government and the U.S. media, as the country tried to position itself towards the war not just in the eyes of its citizens but of the entire world as part of its geopolitical power position. A comparative quantitative and qualitative analysis of official U.S. communications and U.S. partisan media coverage in the first week of the invasion aims to uncover how the U.S. government set the agenda and framed the events, and to what extent the media copied or diverged from this agenda-setting and framing. The results suggest a narrow focus and distinct framing on the part of the U.S. government, partly taken over by partisan media. The latter also touched on other topics that fit media logic and provided some counter-frames in line with their ideological positions, yet overall confirmed the dominant framing of the war as unjust, unprovoked and premeditated, as Putin’s choice, and the position of the U.S. as the leader of the free world and defender of democracy.

A Novel Layout for Combined Heat and Power Production for a Hospital Based on a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

This paper addresses the problem of the reduction in the huge energy demand of hospitals and health care facilities. The sharp increase in the natural gas price, due to the Ukrainian–Russian war, has significantly reduced economic savings achieved by combined heat and power (CHP) units, especially for hospitals. In this framework, this research proposes a novel system based on the integration of a reversible CHP solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and a photovoltaic field (PV). The PV power is mainly used for balancing the hospital load. The excess power production is exploited to produce renewable hydrogen. The SOFC operates in electrical tracking mode. The cogenerative heat produced by the SOFC is exploited to partially meet the thermal load of the hospital. The SOFC is driven by the renewable hydrogen produced by the plant. When this hydrogen is not available, the SOFC is driven by natural gas. In fact, the SOFC is coupled with an external reformer. The simulation model of the whole plant, including the reversible SOFC, PV, and hospital, is developed in the TRNSYS18 environment and MATLAB. The model of the hospital is calibrated by means of measured data. The proposed system achieves very interesting results, with a primary energy-saving index of 33% and a payback period of 6.7 years. Therefore, this energy measure results in a promising solution for reducing the environmental impact of hospital and health care facilities.

Unveiling the critical nexus: Volatility of crude oil future prices and trade partner’s cash holding behavior in the face of the Russia–Ukraine conflict

This study investigates the spillover effects of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on corporate finance, particularly focusing on cash-holding decisions of Chinese-listed firms from Q1 2020 to Q1 2023. Utilizing a Difference-in-Difference approach, we analyze how firms with trade links to Russia and Ukraine adjust their cash holdings in response to the conflict. A significant aspect of our analysis is the emphasis on Shanghai crude oil futures prices, alongside West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices, to understand the impact of oil market volatility on these decisions. Our findings reveal that such volatility, especially in Shanghai crude oil futures, significantly influences firms’ cash holdings, with an increased tendency to hoard cash in times of rising uncertainties. This behavior is particularly pronounced in non-state-owned, general trade, and export firms. The study highlights how geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices affect corporate financial strategies, offering insights for policymakers and corporate managers in navigating economic uncertainties.

Student-Led Campus Happiness Lunchboxes: Paying for Positive Impact

In the aftermath of the 2022 Russian–Ukrainian war, Taiwan experienced economic shocks that prompted the government to initiate the happiness lunchbox program, aimed at fostering sustainable development and zero hunger concerns. Despite these efforts, economically disadvantaged university students faced challenges due to the unconventional outsourcing of campus meals. This study, conducted by leveraging campus culinary facilities, adopts an inferred value approach as opposed to the subjective willingness-to-pay (WTP) method, providing a more conservative assessment of students’ willingness to contribute. Through regression analysis, this study highlights the positive correlation between student engagement in charitable activities and WTP for student-led events. This involvement not only enhances food safety and hygiene but also reflects a genuine commitment to supporting financially challenged students. The comprehensive nature of this approach effectively tackles issues related to campus nutrition, emphasizing the significance of establishing a sustainable campus environment to achieve objectives such as “zero hunger” and “responsible consumption and production” on campus.

Dissemination of RT and Sputnik Content in European Digital Alternative News Environments: Mapping the Influence of Russian State-Backed Media Across Platforms, Topics, and Ideology

The study investigates the dissemination of news content from two Russian state-backed media outlets, RT and Sputnik, within digital alternative news environments in Austria, Denmark, Germany, and Sweden. We investigate these media outlets as parts of a Russian “sharp power” strategy, aimed at establishing informational influence within Western news environments. The analysis includes over 3.4 million social media posts containing URLs to RT and Sputnik content, published between January 2019 and March 2022. Drawing on a combined network analytical and computational text analysis approach, we examine the dissemination of RT and Sputnik content across a range of social media platforms (Twitter/X, Facebook, Telegram, VKontakte, Gab, Instagram, Reddit, 4chan, and YouTube). In the Danish and Swedish environments, the dissemination of content into core domestic alternative news communities is limited, primarily taking place on Facebook and, to a lesser extent, on Twitter/X. Fringe platforms such as Telegram, Gab and VKontakte facilitate a wider spread of content within domestic alternative news environments in German-speaking environments, predominantly among right-wing digital clusters. Within German-speaking alternative news environments, the shared content from RT and Sputnik primarily addresses domestic issues, such as COVID-19 policies and vaccines. In contrast, Danish- and Swedish-speaking alternative news environments emphasize foreign policy matters, including the Russian–Ukraine War, WikiLeaks, and Western military actions. These findings contribute to research on foreign state-media operations in digital information environments by focusing on both content and sharing patterns.

Analysis of the enablers to deal with the ripple effect in food grain supply chains under disruption: Implications for food security and sustainability

Because of the massive globalization process, market volatility, and today's ever-changing business environment, managing grain supply chains (GSCs) is becoming increasingly challenging. In addition, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict is causing significant disruptions in global supply chains, adding to the challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic in the last couple of years. The ongoing socio-economic disruptions have created a ripple effect in the global supply chains worldwide, especially in emerging economies, which also happen to be the major global exporters of food grains. In this regard, the key enablers of the GSC must be identified to address the impact of the ripple effect and ensure sustainability and food security. This paper addresses these challenges and amalgamates the knowledge on ripple effects, sustainability, and food security. The study aims to identify, prioritize, and delineate the systemic interrelationships among enablers to address the ripple effect of GSC in emerging economies like Bangladesh. A multi-method approach integrating Pareto analysis, total interpretive structural modeling (TISM), and matrice d'impacts croisés multiplication appliquée à un classement (MICMAC) was employed for this purpose. The findings of this study indicate that geological sourcing diversification, governing cash flow to avoid the liquidity crisis, and supplier clustering according to disruptive risks are the most significant enablers. The insights from this study can potentially assist industry leaders and GSC practitioners in making strategic decisions to achieve sustainability in the grain management sector and thus improve future food security in emerging economies.