The bitskrieg that was and wasn’t: the military and intelligence implications of cyber operations during Russia’s war on Ukraine

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Russian war on Ukraine presents a multifaceted landscape for the analysis of the cyber dimensions of contemporary war and their strategic, operational, and tactical impacts. While the long-anticipated disabling and devastating cyber blitzkrieg did not happen at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the persistent utilization of a variety of cyber tools by both sides in this war points to the hybrid warfare strategy taking place not only on the ground but also in cyberspace. Cyberattacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, governmental entities and different parts of the economy have been a constant feature in Ukraine’s struggle to maintain its national security. These cyberattacks had a varying level of success. Yet, their role in the Russia–Ukraine war is still not fully understood or extensively studied. This work analyses cyber incidents from the first period of conflict, starting in November 2013 until 23 February 2022, and examines their objective and subjective impacts at the domestic and the international levels. This work also reviews the post-escalation period starting from 24 February 2022, using the data collected directly from the publicly available Ukrainian governmental sources and international cyber firms. This work aims to address the role and impact of cyber operations in an ongoing Russia–Ukraine war on both the people, networked systems, and other physical contests of warfare and the soldiers in the trenches is the principal subject of this article.